Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[jhm]

the average 12 month PT of 23 analyst covering TSLA (BBG only) is now: $286.00
so we are less than $12 away...having in mind that the stock price increased so quickly, this is crazy. Beautiful. Let's see what the future will bring:wink:

FWIW, my 12 month, median sentiment BFPT is $337, which puts me in close company with Ben Kallo and Andrea James. My first and third quartiles are $300 and $362, and 5 out of 9 analysts in the screenshot are in that range too.

I would also point out that at $276 today, we are at the 65th percentile for sentiment. This is moderately bullish, but if we land in the $300 to $362 range 12 months from now, that would be a satisfying return. My intuitive sense is that we will see an new ATH before the next bear run, so it is hard to say whether we'll see any buy opps around $250 anytime soon. So this is an awkward moment for a long-term investor to buy: sentiment is a little high, but not so high as to expect a substantially better buying opp anytime soon. For me, it simply is time to hold what I have accumulated and have fun watching the price gyrate.

 

[ggies07]

This came up on my youtube page and thought I would interject some comedy on this awesome run-up day:

 

[pGo]

From the Q4 letter, around 55k delivers for 2015, 40% in the in the first half of the year. First half actual deliveries were 21,552 so we are just 448 off through the first half of the year. I think we are good depending how the 4Q15 push goes.

What do people see here for Q3 and Q4 in terms of delivery to meet 55K guidance?

Is this realistic?
Q3 - 13.5K
Q4 - 20K (including model x)

 

[hockeythug]

What do people see here for Q3 and Q4 in terms of delivery to meet 55K guidance?

Is this realistic?
Q3 - 13.5K
Q4 - 20K (including model x)

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate growth from 3Q14 and 4Q14 but it was 7,785 and 9,834, respectively. Obviously the July factory shutdown impacted 3Q14. As of the end of 1Q15 production was averaging over 1,000 a week.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

What do people see here for Q3 and Q4 in terms of delivery to meet 55K guidance?

Is this realistic?
Q3 - 13.5K
Q4 - 20K (including model x)

Well if Tesla increases deliveries by 15% each quarter as they have just done they will come to about 50000 deliveries just with Model S and I think Model X can easily add 5000 to meet their goal.

 

[uselesslogin]

What do people see here for Q3 and Q4 in terms of delivery to meet 55K guidance?

Is this realistic?
Q3 - 13.5K
Q4 - 20K (including model x)

It is realistic *if* they get the second line up and running on time. Obviously there is no shortage of Model X orders. For me I guess it is a coin flip but if they beat guidance it won't be by much.

 

[AlMc]

What do people see here for Q3 and Q4 in terms of delivery to meet 55K guidance?

Is this realistic?
Q3 - 13.5K
Q4 - 20K (including model x)

Someone smarter than me can extrapolate growth from 3Q14 and 4Q14 but it was 7,785 and 9,834, respectively. Obviously the July factory shutdown impacted 3Q14. As of the end of 1Q15 production was averaging over 1,000 a week.

Well if Tesla increases deliveries by 15% each quarter as they have just done they will come to about 50000 deliveries just with Model S and I think Model X can easily add 5000 to meet their goal.

The trick for TM, and the only non black swan/major negative macro event that I can see as a potential negative catalyst is the move from Line 1 to Line 2. IIRC line 2 has the capacity for up to 3,000 units per week while line 1 seems to have peaked at 1,200. So, if the ramp of line 2/X production goes smoothly we know that the demand is there to easily reach the 55K guidance. The 'million dollar question' is ( OK, the $300+ PT question is)...Can TM execute?

edit: I would also point out that other than the push to Washington State and Georgia to take advantage of the expiration of their tax credits, there did not seem to be the usual end of quarter push, at least at the local SC to me: devon, PA....I see that as a good sign

 

[Lump]

FWIW, my 12 month, median sentiment BFPT is $337, which puts me in close company with Ben Kallo and Andrea James. My first and third quartiles are $300 and $362, and 5 out of 9 analysts in the screenshot are in that range too.

I would also point out that at $276 today, we are at the 65th percentile for sentiment. This is moderately bullish, but if we land in the $300 to $362 range 12 months from now, that would be a satisfying return. My intuitive sense is that we will see an new ATH before the next bear run, so it is hard to say whether we'll see any buy opps around $250 anytime soon. So this is an awkward moment for a long-term investor to buy: sentiment is a little high, but not so high as to expect a substantially better buying opp anytime soon. For me, it simply is time to hold what I have accumulated and have fun watching the price gyrate.

This weekend I am going to create 6 scenarios to generate price targets, heck maybe even 12, one of them has to come close.

 

[hockeythug]

If a repeat of 4Q14 happens with the missed deliveries due to December holidays should Tesla change their fiscal year beginning/end to Jan or Feb? I know they just got counted in 1Q15 so its not that big of a deal but the bears use it as ammo to drive the price down.

 

[jhm]

This weekend I am going to create 6 scenarios to generate price targets, heck maybe even 12, one of them has to come close.

Do share your results with the rest of us.

 

[ADP]

What do people see here for Q3 and Q4 in terms of delivery to meet 55K guidance?

Is this realistic?
Q3 - 13.5K
Q4 - 20K (including model x)

I hope they can smooth it out somewhat. That seems like a lot of pressure on Q4.

 

[RobStark]

I hope they can smooth it out somewhat. That seems like a lot of pressure on Q4.

This isn't BMW. Capacity grows abruptly.

The second production line is scheduled to come online at the very end of Q3 and capacity doubles in Q4.

 

[techmaven]

This isn't BMW. Capacity grows abruptly.

The second production line is scheduled to come online at the very end of Q3 and capacity doubles in Q4.

This. Yes.

However, there is potential for a lot of doubt between now and then as a result. Please be careful out there.

 

[ibcs]

This isn't BMW. Capacity grows abruptly.

The second production line is scheduled to come online at the very end of Q3 and capacity doubles in Q4.

Does anyone know if the second line is capable of producing both Model S & X depending on demand.

 

[AlMc]

Does anyone know if the second line is capable of producing both Model S & X depending on demand.

Yes. The purpose of the second line is so that either can be produced on it as demand dictates

 

[aznt1217]

Yes. The purpose of the second line is so that either can be produced on it as demand dictates

Precisely. That and there was a reason why the base platform architecture for the X was the S and why the robots have interchangeable parts to quickly changeover.

 

[ibcs]

Precisely. That and there was a reason why the base platform architecture for the X was the S and why the robots have interchangeable parts to quickly changeover.

Simply outstanding. If they didn't have such a backlog of orders for the X they could cut down time for the S, but Tesla will be cranking both lines out at full throttle. I like the idea of interchangeability.

 

[larmor]

How many Model X were pre-sold for 2015?

 

[RubberToe]

I almost shat my pants when I woke up today. Yesterday I bought a significant quantity of the "Daily" July 2nd $280's for $0.16 each on the chance that deliveries would be announced before the holiday. This has the potential to be the biggest day of my trading career if I play this right. :scared::scared:

dha,
Please let us know how this ended up working out. Hands down, you certainly had the most exciting 5 minutes this morning between 6:30am and 6:35am :wink:

Possibly even another few exciting minutes coming up...

RT

 

[vgrinshpun]

Simply outstanding. If they didn't have such a backlog of orders for the X they could cut down time for the S, but Tesla will be cranking both lines out at full throttle. I like the idea of interchangeability.

The original line (#1) will be in operation only until the MX body production is ramped up on the second line. At that point MS will be blended in, and Line #1 will no longer be used. This space eventually will be used for the production of Model III.