Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[virtuesoft]

The bears are undoubtedly in control at this moment in time. However, I cannot see this lasting once the Model X design studio is unveiled, which is approx 1 to 2 weeks away.

I'm looking at 234 and 222. I've got some cash handy that I'm waiting to put to use at those levels.

234 is the 50% retracement level from the 181 to 286 move. It also lines up with resistance that we encountered on the way up in May. Resistance often becomes support, and vice versa.

222 is the 61.8% retracement level from the same move. It also lines up with a prior high from the 5th Feb, and a series of prior lows around mid October creating a pivot zone. This level should be strong if we get there.

Having said that, I'm not convinced there is enough bearish strength to actually push the price much lower. 234 is obviously close, and it's likely that we'll reach that, but there just doesn't seem to be much bearish momentum to these moves lower. I think that to reach 222 we either need a brief and failed rally to attract new shorts (which there isn't much time for), or some more bad news that is as of the present time unknown. I'm thinking about putting 75% of my cash to use at 234 and save the other 25% for either 222 or 254. This is my plan over the next 2 weeks. Like I said, once the design studio is released I think the game will change significantly.

 

[RubberToe]

Lets see if all the analysts who downgraded TSLA based on valuation when it was near the ATH (~$280), now come back and switch from hold to buy based on the current lower valuation...

RT

 

[mrdoubleb]

The bears are undoubtedly in control at this moment in time. However, I cannot see this lasting once the Model X design studio is unveiled, which is approx 1 to 2 weeks away.

I'm looking at 234 and 222. I've got some cash handy that I'm waiting to put to use at those levels.

234 is the 50% retracement level from the 181 to 286 move. It also lines up with resistance that we encountered on the way up in May. Resistance often becomes support, and vice versa.

222 is the 61.8% retracement level from the same move. It also lines up with a prior high from the 5th Feb, and a series of prior lows around mid October creating a pivot zone. This level should be strong if we get there.

Having said that, I'm not convinced there is enough bearish strength to actually push the price much lower. 234 is obviously close, and it's likely that we'll reach that, but there just doesn't seem to be much bearish momentum to these moves lower. I think that to reach 222 we either need a brief and failed rally to attract new shorts (which there isn't much time for), or some more bad news that is as of the present time unknown. I'm thinking about putting 75% of my cash to use at 234 and save the other 25% for either 222 or 254. This is my plan over the next 2 weeks. Like I said, once the design studio is released I think the game will change significantly.

One thing that may still happen is a number of analysts confirming their price target / hold or buy rating. I know we had a few coming out since the ER, but we certainly had a few big names (?) on the CC who may come out in the next few days.

Thoughts everyone?

 

[Noble Ninja]

I'm looking at 234 and 222. I've got some cash handy that I'm waiting to put to use at those levels.

222 is the 61.8% retracement level from the same move. It also lines up with a prior high from the 5th Feb, and a series of prior lows around mid October creating a pivot zone. This level should be strong if we get there.

Don't forget that our current 200-day simple moving average is around $229.

 

[Curt Renz]

The bears are undoubtedly in control at this moment in time. However, I cannot see this lasting once the Model X design studio is unveiled, which is approx 1 to 2 weeks away.

I'm looking at 234 and 222. I've got some cash handy that I'm waiting to put to use at those levels.

234 is the 50% retracement level from the 181 to 286 move. It also lines up with resistance that we encountered on the way up in May. Resistance often becomes support, and vice versa.

222 is the 61.8% retracement level from the same move. It also lines up with a prior high from the 5th Feb, and a series of prior lows around mid October creating a pivot zone. This level should be strong if we get there.

Having said that, I'm not convinced there is enough bearish strength to actually push the price much lower. 234 is obviously close, and it's likely that we'll reach that, but there just doesn't seem to be much bearish momentum to these moves lower. I think that to reach 222 we either need a brief and failed rally to attract new shorts (which there isn't much time for), or some more bad news that is as of the present time unknown. I'm thinking about putting 75% of my cash to use at 234 and save the other 25% for either 222 or 254. This is my plan over the next 2 weeks. Like I said, once the design studio is released I think the game will change significantly.

The low of the day (and since May 9) at 234.44 was precisely hit 3 times during the past hour. It appears to be a support level.

 

[virtuesoft]

Don't forget that our current 200-day simple moving average is around $229.

Yeah, I did have a look at that. I don't normally pay as much attention to moving averages, becuase I've had more luck with fibonacci levels in the past. However, the 200 day MA does also line up with the high from the 26th December. This is the kind of confluence of factors I look for. I may save some cash for 229. I'll see how I feel if the price does actually reach any of these levels.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Something big will be announced soon. It seems like the reason Google pulled the maneuver with its stock was to isolate the risk its Android, Chrome, and Google (Adsense), and Google Glass arms are facing. Alphabet feels like a way for Google to move its cash to Alphabet, without exposing Google (the company) to damages resulting from lawsuits it is facing in the EU. This will allow Google to invest in companies and projects that have a high probability of becoming very profitable, such as Uber, Nest, (Calico?), and any projects that are part of Google's Venture capital arm, Google Ventures. Perhaps even a massive capital injection in Tesla through Google Ventures?

Is this theory plausible?

It seems Google forgot to ask BMW about the use of the name Alphabet.

 [COLOR=#333333][FONT=Georgia]Alphabet is also the name of a BMW subsidiary that provides services to corporations with vehicle fleets. A BMW spokeswoman said Tuesday that the automaker was not informed ahead of time of plans by Mr. Page and Mr. Brin to create a company called Alphabet and had not received any offers to buy the Internet domain or the trademark.[/FONT][/COLOR][COLOR=#333333][FONT=Georgia]“We are not planning to sell the domain,” said Micaela Sandstede, a BMW spokeswoman in Munich. She described the website as a “very active” part of Alphabet’s business.[/FONT][/COLOR]
[COLOR=#333333][FONT=Georgia]BMW is examining whether any trademark infringement has taken place, Ms. Sandstede said.

[/FONT][/COLOR]

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[BoerumHill]

Agree with virtuesoft, relax.

You don't want to turn in to this guy: View Profile: Iamthecaliflower - Tesla Motors Club - Enthusiasts & Owners Forum

Thanks, Johan. I needed to smile this morning.

I understand long term. I'm a very patient investor and have been for three and a half decades. I get that stocks of young growth companies bounce up and down.

Still, $79K in lost account value [SUP]oops I meant[/SUP] [decreased unrealized gain] over the last 22 calendar days is not easy to stomach.

Well, if I'm being honest, I have to look in the mirror on that one anyway. I'm seasoned enough I should know better than to overweight as much as I have.

FML

ETA: formatting

 

[dalalsid]

Something big will be announced soon.

I think so too. But I don't know about soon. But I like this step forward at least for more transparency.

 

[Yggdrasill]

I bought some stock at 235.4. Thinking I'll keep them at least until the Model 3 reveal.

I think the next six months will be very positive.

 

[BoerumHill]

I bought some stock at 235.4. Thinking I'll keep them at least until the Model 3 reveal.

I think the next six months will be very positive.

Intermediate term there are many potential catalysts which should boost the price. Model X, increased production, opening of Gigafactory, exponential ramp of Tesla Energy, et al.

 

[MartinAustin]

China's currency change is affecting the entire market, but nearly all auto stocks are down significantly today, most of them are complaining about falling demand in China. Last news I heard out of China for Tesla was that the (small) deliveries doubled! So I don't think TSLA is affected as much as the other guys, but there is a lot of dragging down going on today. Honestly TSLA isn't as affected by the decline as the other auto stocks.

 

[Johan]

Thanks, Johan. I needed to smile this morning.

I understand long term. I'm a very patient investor and have been for three and a half decades. I get that stocks of young growth companies bounce up and down.

Still, $79K in lost account value [SUP]oops I meant[/SUP] [decreased unrealized gain] over the last 22 calendar days is not easy to stomach.

Well, if I'm being honest, I have to look in the mirror on that one anyway. I'm seasoned enough I should know better than to overweight as much as I have.

FML

ETA: formatting

FML

 

[jhm]

Could Tesla address the wind market?

Wind PPAs have reached a new low price of 2.35 c/kWh. The installed wind capacity in the US is 66 GW with 1 GW in distributed wind. Coupled with Powerpacks and other storage, wind has the potential to knock a lot more coal and natural gas out of the electricity market.

But is there potential here for Tesla to make a contribution here beyond TE products? I believe so. Wind generators are mechanical devices that wear out. The drivetrain of a typical wind generator involves a lot of gears, and they wear out in about 10 years. Tesla now aspires to make a million mile drivetrain for its car. Could they also develop wind drivetrain that lasts 40 years? I believe they may have insight into how to engineer a very low friction, nearly solid state drivetrain that has at least twice the life expectancy. Moreover, could they push the envelope on distributed wind generation and help drive the bundling of distributed wind, solar and battery systems. I think that Tesla with its proximity to SpaceX and SolarCity is well positioned to make such contrubutions. They only drawback I see is that Tesla currently has its hands full with autos and batteries.

Is there much wind on Mars?

The boom in wind energy couldn’t be coming at a better time - The Washington Post

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

China's currency change is affecting the entire market, but nearly all auto stocks are down significantly today, most of them are complaining about falling demand in China. Last news I heard out of China for Tesla was that the (small) deliveries doubled! So I don't think TSLA is affected as much as the other guys, but there is a lot of dragging down going on today. Honestly TSLA isn't as affected by the decline as the other auto stocks.

Demand is falling, but for other reasons. Here is my take on things.

1) Owning a registered real car in China is very expensive. However, many people in China, particularly those who can afford to buy a new luxury car, aren't too concerned with the price of the vehicle or applicable taxes.
2) China is making it more expensive to own a gasoline vehicle, however there are many illegal vehicles, and vehicles that don't require license plates. I think China is working to get these vehicles off the road.
3) China is trying to significantly reduce the number of parking spaces to address pollution and to reduce traffic and road congestion.
4) China is considering taxing people for each mile they drive in a gasoline vehicles. Also, the toll for using the highway is fairly high. In contrast, China is considering rewarding drivers of Electric Vehicles for every mile they drive.
5) China needs more Taxis. It's almost impossible to get a taxi in many cities due to extremely high demand. Most of the taxis in use are fairly old. In some cities, the taxis are very old. It would make sense to replace all taxis with EVs.
6) The network of bullet trains in China is growing rapidly and demand far exceeds the number of available trains.

The market for low to medium price gasoline vehicles is likely to fall significantly in the coming years. The market for Electric Vehicles, particularly luxury EVs, is likely to grow rapidly in the coming years.

 

[BoerumHill]

FML

I'm apparently out of likes. Or have spent to many reputation points in one place. But again, you're making me smile today.

For My Leisure, amiright?

 

[Johan]

I'm apparently out of likes. Or have spent to many reputation points in one place. But again, you're making me smile today.

For My Leisure, amiright?

Always

On a slow news day where TSLA just drifts along the Chinese tradewinds... Whaddayagonnado?

 

[austinEV]

Thanks, Johan. I needed to smile this morning.

I understand long term. I'm a very patient investor and have been for three and a half decades. I get that stocks of young growth companies bounce up and down.

Still, $79K in lost account value [SUP]oops I meant[/SUP] [decreased unrealized gain] over the last 22 calendar days is not easy to stomach.

Well, if I'm being honest, I have to look in the mirror on that one anyway. I'm seasoned enough I should know better than to overweight as much as I have.

FML

ETA: formatting

Not to get into war stories, but From the high last Nov down to its doldrums in March/April this year I was down about $500k... It was no fun, and I was mad at myself but when the stock came back so did that unrealized account value. The only thing I had to do was get enough leap calls near the bottom to make up for the value of calls I lost on the way down. TSLA will be back.

 

[Lessmog]

Is there much wind on Mars?

The boom in wind energy couldn’t be coming at a better time - The Washington Post

High velocity winds but very low pressure and/or density "air", ISTR Elon having mentioned. So not a lot of use for making a lot of juice. Also why parachutes are not ideal for landing Mars craft.

 

[BoerumHill]

Whaddayagonnado?

For a Swedish Norwegian you sure do have a firm grasp of the nuances American culture. Well traveled or merely well read? Did you study or live in the U.S. earlier in life?

Not to get into war stories, but From the high last Nov down to its doldrums in March/April this year I was down about $500k... It was no fun, and I was mad at myself but when the stock came back so did that unrealized account value. The only thing I had to do was get enough leap calls near the bottom to make up for the value of calls I lost on the way down. TSLA will be back.

Thanks, and agreed.

As a young adult - with a much higher risk tolerance - I made a small fortune in Q4 1987 from from a buying spree on October 20. I've multiplied and lost those gains many times over since.

But for some reason I keep having to teach myself the same remedial lessons during stressful trading periods.

This will pass; this too shall pass. But it's a stomach churning journey.