Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[dmunjal]

How much of a discount were you offered? Was it listed online?
The wait time right now is just a month (late December) for all models. It has been like that for like 2 months now. If not a big discount, why bother with inventory car? Possibly, claiming the tax credit this year itself could be important for some if they decide to buy next month.

It was about $5k off with 1200 miles. I wasn't sure I'd get it by the end of the year if I ordered new and I didn't want to wait until next year. I actually wanted an X but after the pricing and the timing came out, I decided to get another S.

 

[mmd]

It was about $5k off with 1200 miles. I wasn't sure I'd get it by the end of the year if I ordered new and I didn't want to wait until next year. I actually wanted an X but after the pricing and the timing came out, I decided to get another S.

Thanks for your reply! It helps me estimate the profit margins in Q4 based on number of inventory sales.

 

[FluxCap]

Today, the market caught up to what we already knew yesterday about Model X and quarterly projections thanks to Dan Galves' morning note, and repriced TSLA accordingly. It is still so interesting to me that the market does not process news from TeslaMotorsClub.com in realtime after so many market-moving news breaks that happen here first.

Anyway, thanks for the two-bagger on my 235 calls, market.

Happy Turkey day, Tesla investor friends.

Remember to use extra caution while driving, as the pre-Thanksgiving travel rush is the most deadly and accident-prone driving period all year in the US. Sure makes you wish all cars on the highway had autopilot, doesn't it?

 

[MitchJi]

More information on the MX ramp from the confidential call?:
Can Tesla Deliver Enough Electric-Car Sales In 2015? TSLA - Investors.com

The company's Q4 volume guidance "looks achievable," Reuters quotes analyst Dan Galves as saying, noting that he expects questions about volume for the quarter and the production ramp for Tesla's new Model X SUV. "to be addressed in a positive way" by early January.

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

More information on the MX ramp from the confidential call?:
Can Tesla Deliver Enough Electric-Car Sales In 2015? TSLA - Investors.com

Where do you see the words "confidential call"? Does anyone have the full report by Credit Suisse?

Interesting quote by WSJ from the report.

It also thinks Tesla Energy, a suite of batteries for homes, businesses and utilities, has the potential to add 15% to 35% to the company’s auto revenues near the end of the decade, which Credit Suisse believes could push the stock as high as $400 over the next 12 to 18 months.

Tesla Stock Has Says Credit Suisse - MoneyBeat - WSJ

Does this mean they are expecting Tesla Energy to equal about 15-30% of Tesla's revenue by around 2020?

Interesting article about the situation with VW. Any thoughts about how the problem could be easier than expected to fix? Anyone who purchased one of the vehicles involved, by definition, should be able to (at a minimum) demand a full refund, not a modification to the hardware in the vehicle.

VW maintains $7 billion of provisions despite simple emissions fix - Yahoo Finance

 

[jhm]

Tesla Acquires Surprising New Allies: Traditional Auto Dealers - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Neat little article.

I'd like to challenge Musk to actually turn Tesla service centers into a profit center! How? Provide top quality EV service to EVs of all makes. Apparently the auto dealers are unwilling to make money on EVs, even servicing them. So this is an opening for Tesla. When Tesla becomes the preferred service provider of all EV owners, it can make both money and conquests. To add in conquest, Tesla should also take any EV as a trade in and sell them used at the Tesla store. This should actually improve the shopping experience for anyone looking to by an EV. They can test drive both new Teslas and a variety of used EVs. This means no one has to walk away because they cannot afford a Tesla. Why not buy a Tesla certified preowned Leaf from the Tesla store today, and trade up to a Model 3 in a couple of years? Tesla can do this and beat the dealers at their own game. Go for it, Musk! Don't be afraid to make a little money as an EV dealer.

 

[MitchJi]

Where do you see the words "confidential call"? Does anyone have the full report by Credit Suisse?


Does this mean they are expecting Tesla Energy to equal about 15-30% of Tesla's revenue by around 2020?

Semi tongue in cheek response to AIMc's post up thread.

I'm not sure what they mean but I am sure that the volume potential sales and the GM are not fully priced into the SP.

 

[Scott Ales]

Don't forget about the EM appearance on "The Big Bang Theory" tomorrow. Could have some impact Friday for the short trading day.

 

[MikeC]

Don't forget about the EM appearance on "The Big Bang Theory" tomorrow. Could have some impact Friday for the short trading day.

That episode was on last week.

 

[eloder]

Don't forget about the EM appearance on "The Big Bang Theory" tomorrow. Could have some impact Friday for the short trading day.

The episode already aired. SpaceX and Tesla were both mentioned by Howard as well as some light discussion on Mars (and it almost sounded like Musk had a hiring call for SpaceX engineers on the show... haha). It was a funny little bit though

 

[stealthology]

Just playing devil's advocate here: is anyone concerned with Model S demand through 2016? If I can configure and order an S today and have it at my door in 4-5 weeks, it makes me feel like they're getting rid of their backlog this quarter. It would appear Tesla is planning to deliver quite a bit more S' this quarter than they will in Q1. It doesn't look like more than 1-2k X's will be delivered by the end of the year, esp. since Musk said he feels "very confident of producing several hundred X's/week by end of year".

What am I forgetting? What can Tesla do to help S demand?

 

[bh1783]

Just playing devil's advocate here: is anyone concerned with Model S demand through 2016? If I can configure and order an S today and have it at my door in 4-5 weeks, it makes me feel like they don't have much of a backlog (but maybe this is just for the US?).

What am I forgetting? What can Tesla do to help S demand?

Probably update the Model S to match the Model X: led headlights, ventilated seats, updated nose cone.

 

[MikeC]

Just playing devil's advocate here: is anyone concerned with Model S demand through 2016? If I can configure and order an S today and have it at my door in 4-5 weeks, it makes me feel like they're getting rid of their backlog this quarter. It would appear Tesla is planning to deliver quite a bit more S' this quarter than they will in Q1. It doesn't look like more than 1-2k X's will be delivered by the end of the year, esp. since Musk said he feels "very confident of producing several hundred X's/week by end of year".

What am I forgetting? What can Tesla do to help S demand?

They're prioritizing US orders right now, otherwise the wait would be longer. International demand is building up right now.

 

[Drax7]

Or maybe the head of Tesla German operations was fired for poor performance...

Just playing devil's advocate here: is anyone concerned with Model S demand through 2016? If I can configure and order an S today and have it at my door in 4-5 weeks, it makes me feel like they're getting rid of their backlog this quarter. It would appear Tesla is planning to deliver quite a bit more S' this quarter than they will in Q1. It doesn't look like more than 1-2k X's will be delivered by the end of the year, esp. since Musk said he feels "very confident of producing several hundred X's/week by end of year".

What am I forgetting? What can Tesla do to help S demand?

Analysis paralysis.

 

[FredTMC]

They're prioritizing US orders right now, otherwise the wait would be longer. International demand is building up right now.

Yep. I think Tesla demand will be fine in 2016. Yep. International orders already building. Problem will be production constraint (again)!

Tesla has a huge order book of MX to work through (>25k units). Plus they will undoubtedly get many more orders in 2016 once prospective buyers see and drive it.

For MS, we will likely see a small refresh of the MS as noted by others. Tesla will sell nearly 50k MS in 2015, it's likely demand will be at least that much with a 2016 design refresh. Into 2017 and beyond, Tesla will reach demand saturation at some point... How many units annually? I have no idea, but I think it's well over 50k per year. Probably same for MX. Seems to me there's still quite a lot of new untapped demand for MS/MX in "middle America" and internationally. "High quality" problem to have.

On the production (supply) side, tesla is currently guiding to 1600-1800 weekly production capacity for 2016. This is 75-85k cars annually. I think this production level what tesla plans for the next few years for MS/MX combined. To build more would seem to require additional production capacity at Fremont or NEW European factory.

Clearly, focus in 2016 will be design of Model3 and tooling/factory build-out for Model3 in 2017.

Exciting times.

 

[Scott Ales]

Just playing devil's advocate here: is anyone concerned with Model S demand through 2016? If I can configure and order an S today and have it at my door in 4-5 weeks, it makes me feel like they're getting rid of their backlog this quarter. It would appear Tesla is planning to deliver quite a bit more S' this quarter than they will in Q1. It doesn't look like more than 1-2k X's will be delivered by the end of the year, esp. since Musk said he feels "very confident of producing several hundred X's/week by end of year".

What am I forgetting? What can Tesla do to help S demand?

I am in the camp others have stated. They have solid triggers to control demand. Of course this will always come with disappointment from the most recent buyers, including myself. But that's just the way it has to work. It's not like we're all unfamiliar with the issue, think iPhone.

I am more concerned that the news yesterday from CS is a manipulation effort. Meaning, they state confidence we'll see guidance numbers met which induces the accomplishment to be priced in now or yesterday. I may be overthinking it but I can't get that Cramer video out of my head. Yesterday's move can now be considered to have moved the SP as if guidance WILL be on track or exceeded. If they are 5 cars short of 50k or 52k the SP drops 20 points.

Ugh... who knows. Maybe MX deliveries will trump everything followed by an early M3 showing at the Detroit Auto Show and BAM! $300!

 

[doggusfluffy]

UPDATE 1-VW's Audi suspends two engineers in emissions probe

The Audi suspensions take the number of officials confirmed to have been put on leave across the VW group as a result of its internal investigations to eight, including at least six senior individuals.

 

[MitchJi]

I hope everyone is safe and enjoying their holiday weekend!

I just posted the following in the TSLA Trading Strategies Thread:
TSLA Trading Strategies - Page 63

WARNING:
After doing a little bit of arithmetic I believe that buying far OTM options as part of a long-term or medium-term strategy is a bad idea. Please don't do that, based on my previous posts, without [going there and] reading the following.

<snip>

How to determine if it's better to roll options (LEAPS for example) on a dip, or at a high point.

<snip>

I am in the camp others have stated. They have solid triggers to control demand. Of course this will always come with disappointment from the most recent buyers, including myself. But that's just the way it has to work. It's not like we're all unfamiliar with the issue, think iPhone.

Don't forget that by 2017 (GF) their pack costs should go down by at least 40%, which will allow them to reduce prices by over $5k per car, without reducing their GM.

I am more concerned that the news yesterday from CS is a manipulation effort. Meaning, they state confidence we'll see guidance numbers met which induces the accomplishment to be priced in now or yesterday. I may be overthinking it but I can't get that Cramer video out of my head. Yesterday's move can now be considered to have moved the SP as if guidance WILL be on track or exceeded. If they are 5 cars short of 50k or 52k the SP drops 20 points.

Tesla: This Could Be Next Years Biggest Catalyst - Stocks to Watch - Barrons.com

Credit Suisse analyst Dan Galves and team argue that 2016 will be a “cleaner” year for Tesla Motors (TSLA), one that allows investors to focus on the long term. They explain:

The debate on Tesla stock remains focused around short-term issues, namely Model X production ramp and Q4 volume. We expect both these issues to be addressed in a positive way by early Jan when Tesla discloses Q4 vol’s, allowing the Street to re-focus on the long-term story. Beyond that, a much cleaner 2016 should enable better-than-expected earnings and FCF.

17k units in Q4 achievable: Investors are skeptical around Tesla’s ability to get to the low-end of delivery guidance which requires a 46% sequential increase. Our estimates are based on 15k orders in Q3, 1k incremental sales in Denmark (due to year-end tax changes), and 1k incremental sales in UK (11-mth backlog of orders prior to right-hand drive “D” launch in Sept).

2016 is a much cleaner year, which enables operating leverage: The biggest future catalyst we see is Tesla generating significantly higher earnings and reducing the cash burn. From $2.30 annualized loss in 3Q15, we estimate 36k incremental Model X units will drive $7 of incremental EPS. This, plus better Model S margin, offset by lower-than-consensus SG&A / R&D growth means that $4 EPS (vs consensus $1.86) and a reduction in full-year FCF burn to ~$500MM is achievable…although we think even hitting consensus numbers in 2016 would be a substantial catalyst.

Multiple issues:
1. Will that remain priced in (right or wrong) until the numbers are announced in Jan16, week 1?

IMO, without some further catalysts the answer is no.

2. Will they hit both targets (total deliveries, and a sufficient quantity of MX's, to assuage the doubts of the market), and if not how will the market react?

I am extremely confident that they will hit the total deliveries. I am also confident that they will hit their stated goal of producing, 300-400 cars per week of MX for the last two weeks of the year. But in order to maintain that confidence I need to see that Bonnie either has her car, or at the very least a firm delivery date by about the second week of December.

3. Once they resolve the MX production ramp issue (in January-March), will it be a “cleaner” year for Tesla, which enables generating significantly higher earnings and reducing the cash burn.
I think most of us, or at least many of us completely agree with that opinion.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Founders #13 found a new home yesterday (twitter, with pics).
Chamath Palihapitiya enjoy!

 

[ScepticMatt]

Don't forget that by 2017 (GF) their pack costs should go down by at least 40%, which will allow them to reduce prices by over $5k per car, without reducing their GM.

That assumes that Tesla won't increase their Model S pack capacities, which contradicts Musk's predicted capacity upgrades.
Unless you mean pack cost reductions after accounting for capacity increases, in which case that's premature.