Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2015

[EarlyAdopter]

It means he was granted a ton of stock options. He will be quite rich in a few years.

He was a VP at Google and there for 13 years (pre-IPO). I don't think you need the "will be" in your sentence.

 

[BornToFly]

I am starting to get the feeling that Elon is planning to really burn the shorts soon with a 1-2 punch. In the Model X forum, Sig #664 was spotted getting ready for delivery. Sig #1 owner posted this:
"I agree with Bonnie about not publishing a "soft" date, but I can say that I've received the same soft date as her (they plan on delivering Sig 1 and 2 together). It appears that many cars are being pre-positioned at other delivery points, but their delivery dates are expected to start after ours."
I think they are going to deliver hundreds of Sigs at once to make a big splash, and then follow that up in a couple weeks with Q4 numbers that say they met guidance. I'm giddy right now....

 

[froggy]

@rdalcanto I can totally see this happening, since everybody has waited this long I can see Tesla delivering as many Sig Model X's to their owners as possible all at once...perhaps 2 days before December 25th with a big bow on each of them, Merry Christmas!

 

[Cattledog]

@rdalcanto I can totally see this happening, since everybody has waited this long I can see Tesla delivering as many Sig Model X's to their owners as possible all at once...perhaps 2 days before December 25th with a big bow on each of them, Merry Christmas!

Sort of Tesla's version of Order 66, the purge of the Jedi from Star Wars. Except we're the good guys, so flip it over. Order 99, purge of the ICEs.

 

[Drax7]

@rdalcanto I can totally see this happening, since everybody has waited this long I can see Tesla delivering as many Sig Model X's to their owners as possible all at once...perhaps 2 days before December 25th with a big bow on each of them, Merry Christmas!

That visual is a massive publicity coup.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Neither tesla nor musk has confirmed this so there is only one person probably seeking funding to believe. I do not take this seriously yet

I am not below telling you all....I told you so. Tesla disputes accuracy of article and plans to stay with mobile eye

 

[DJ Frustration]

I am starting to get the feeling that Elon is planning to really burn the shorts soon with a 1-2 punch. In the Model X forum, Sig #664 was spotted getting ready for delivery. Sig #1 owner posted this:
"I agree with Bonnie about not publishing a "soft" date, but I can say that I've received the same soft date as her (they plan on delivering Sig 1 and 2 together). It appears that many cars are being pre-positioned at other delivery points, but their delivery dates are expected to start after ours."
I think they are going to deliver hundreds of Sigs at once to make a big splash, and then follow that up in a couple weeks with Q4 numbers that say they met guidance. I'm giddy right now....

I think this is unlikely for a variety of reasons. There is no need to make a big splash. They already did that with the Reveal Event. Plus, the logistics of pre-positioning cars but not delivering seem to imply a lack of efficiency. Why pre-position if the Delivery Specialists are a finite resource? Then the DS'es become the bottleneck to delivering as many cars as possible before end of year. If a car is at a Service Center ready for delivery, there is no sense in waiting 4 more days to deliver until the 21st (unless the owner isn't available to take delivery until that day). Remember, Tesla had an end of quarter rush in prior quarters...and that was just with the Model S.

Very little chance they're prepped for 600+ or even 100 deliveries in a coordinated fashion on the 21st. Maybe I'm wrong. Sig 897 here.

 

[Scott Ales]

I think this is unlikely for a variety of reasons. There is no need to make a big splash. They already did that with the Reveal Event. Plus, the logistics of pre-positioning cars but not delivering seem to imply a lack of efficiency. Why pre-position if the Delivery Specialists are a finite resource? Then the DS'es become the bottleneck to delivering as many cars as possible before end of year. If a car is at a Service Center ready for delivery, there is no sense in waiting 4 more days to deliver until the 21st (unless the owner isn't available to take delivery until that day). Remember, Tesla had an end of quarter rush in prior quarters...and that was just with the Model S.

Very little chance they're prepped for 600+ or even 100 deliveries in a coordinated fashion on the 21st. Maybe I'm wrong. Sig 897 here.

I actually disagree with this. I don't think it would be very easy to deliver so many MS cars if there were 200-400 recently released MXs. Think about what's going to happen when all the parents and children start posting their MX experiences online. I feel strongly that this is exactly what they are doing. Enough so that I am considering to throw another $10k at Jan 16 $280 calls. At .60 - $1.00 they could be worth 20 times by Jan 15th. I consider this the highest risk play ever for me and realize it is very likely to be a complete waste of $10k.

But.... if it happens I think everyone can do the math. How often does one get the opportunity to turn $10k to $250k in a month?

 

[windgrins]

Private independent transport that cost gas money only and the cost of buying and owning a car is exactly $0.00, just unnecessary unless you really want to pay over the top for luxury of exclusive use. City apartment dwellers (i.e. most people) need not bother.

I'll be one of the early ones to state that it wasn't apparent to me 2 years ago that "Autonomous vehicles" basically solve the "apartment dwellers have no place to charge" problem. In town folks who don't want the expense of ownership (cost of the car, parking, maintenance, upkeep, hassle with getting a parking spot wired, etc) have the option of subscribing to a for-profit shared car service.

The cars have a few places around town for charging and they pick you up when summoned with your destinations pre-entered into the app so it knows the state of required charge. The car appears on schedule with a digital banner that announces your pass-phrase to identify the correct car near your door as well as blinking its lights and a light horn "bleep" when you press the "Identify" button on your smartphone ap. After use, depending upon the next user, it picks them up or returns to the charging spot. No home charger required and minimal cost of driverless shared transport.

It strikes me as not surprising but interesting that a solution to urban EV charging may well come out of left field from an initially unrelated (on the surface) concept--autonomous driverless vehicles. ICE vehicles could be utilized in a service like this but as Julian states, they won't be cost competitive and there is another factor:

If/when this occurs, various car services will start competing not only on price, cleanliness, punctuality, and luxury of their rides, but also things like the company erecting a solar farm somewhere (It doesn't have to be local, just grid tied) to source their electricity! ZEV vehicles and Zero energy production pollution for the cars! A "green ride", indeed! This will become the tagline and competitive hook for some company until everyone starts doing it.

Will this occur within ten years? I don't know but it is a very real possibility. This kind of discussion is nice to have without the SA Bears poo-pooing it for "pie in the sky nonsense". They still seem to be mired in the dog-eat-dog competitive near zero-sum game that the major manufacturers find themselves in today. 100 years of groupthink is very hard to shake once it gets deeply instilled throughout your company.

 

[Krugerrand]

There is no need to make a big splash.

Pfft! Of course there is a need. This is Tesla, they don't advertise, and a win should feel like a win (especially when it makes the naysayers look like fools).

 

[theschnell]

I actually disagree with this. I don't think it would be very easy to deliver so many MS cars if there were 200-400 recently released MXs. Think about what's going to happen when all the parents and children start posting their MX experiences online. I feel strongly that this is exactly what they are doing. Enough so that I am considering to throw another $10k at Jan 16 $280 calls. At .60 - $1.00 they could be worth 20 times by Jan 15th. I consider this the highest risk play ever for me and realize it is very likely to be a complete waste of $10k.

But.... if it happens I think everyone can do the math. How often does one get the opportunity to turn $10k to $250k in a month?

Could work, but historically the market has not fully woken up to the reality of what Tesla has accomplished until the earnings report comes out and leaves them no room for doubt...

I am personally waiting until late March to buy calls, but obviously I may miss the train by then. I am not in a position to take anywhere near the amount of risk that you are, hence the difference in thinking.

 

[Krugerrand]

Could work, but historically the market has not fully woken up to the reality of what Tesla has accomplished until the earnings report comes out and leaves them no room for doubt...

Except if there's a tweet involved. :wink:

 

[DJ Frustration]

Part of me wants there to be a huge delivery event...the part that wants our Sig X to arrive magically out of the blue. However, not giving owners a head's up that their car is ready, but they have to wait until 12/21 is silly. Just check out the facebook post from the the lady who's red Sig X (VIN 664) was spotted in Syosset, NY before she had heard a thing from her DS.

What business reason is there for waiting and surprising unsuspecting owners with their $133,200 vehicles? If Tesla gave any information out it would be a different story, but they've been tight lipped. I would argue that it will have the opposite effect of delaying deliveries since most people have to move some things around financially before writing a check for $93,200+tax/tag/title.

 

[theschnell]

Except if there's a tweet involved. :wink:

Yeah, I'm extremely risk averse, so I am probably not that right person to listen to when it comes to buying short-term calls.

- - - Updated - - -

Part of me wants there to be a huge delivery event...the part that wants our Sig X to arrive magically out of the blue. However, not giving owners a head's up that their car is ready, but they have to wait until 12/21 is silly. Just check out the facebook post from the the lady who's red Sig X (VIN 664) was spotted in Syosset, NY before she had heard a thing from her DS.
View attachment 104627

What business reason is there for waiting and surprising unsuspecting owners with their $133,200 vehicles? If Tesla gave any information out it would be a different story, but they've been tight lipped. I would argue that it will have the opposite effect of delaying deliveries since most people have to move some things around financially before writing a check for $93,200+tax/tag/title.

The X's are coming!!! That is awesome! I am not going to worry too much about business reasons. Just pumped some deliveries are gonna happen soon. This is gonna be fun to watch.

 

[jhm]

Beleaguered oil industry looks to magical sources of demand creation to prop up energy prices.
How Much Oil Is Needed To Power Santa’s Sleigh? | OilPrice.com

Yes, Virginia, there is a Santa Claus, and the magic that powers his sleigh is as renewable as joy in a child's heart.

 

[austinEV]

I'll be one of the early ones to state that it wasn't apparent to me 2 years ago that "Autonomous vehicles" basically solve the "apartment dwellers have no place to charge" problem. In town folks who don't want the expense of ownership (cost of the car, parking, maintenance, upkeep, hassle with getting a parking spot wired, etc) have the option of subscribing to a for-profit shared car service.

Downtown apartment EV owner checking in. I have heard this "problem" off and on for a few years. I downsized and shopped downtown rentals and condos to own in downtown Austin (A much bigger downtown if you haven't visited in a while) and I can tell you that chargers are way more common than people think. Apartments are just putting them in as needed. it isn't a fight, or a big deal, everyone just has them. Then it's a question of useage and urging for more spots when more EV's show up. I live in a tower with ~200 units and there are 4 teslas, 2-3 volts and 2 spots. I also work at a company that is taking the same approach, and I think other EV drivers must also have work spots because the "home" spots are surprisingly available. Owned condo's similarly were accomodating EV owners. It was like "sure, no problem. We already have 3 ev owners, here is what you do...".

TL;DR: Urban EV owning is not so bad.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Part of me wants there to be a huge delivery event...the part that wants our Sig X to arrive magically out of the blue. However, not giving owners a head's up that their car is ready, but they have to wait until 12/21 is silly. Just check out the facebook post from the the lady who's red Sig X (VIN 664) was spotted in Syosset, NY before she had heard a thing from her DS.
[...]
What business reason is there for waiting and surprising unsuspecting owners with their $133,200 vehicles? If Tesla gave any information out it would be a different story, but they've been tight lipped. I would argue that it will have the opposite effect of delaying deliveries since most people have to move some things around financially before writing a check for $93,200+tax/tag/title.

There is no business reason, it is just reality. Please remember they perform some checks on the car and prepare the delivery. Please remember this is a new model vehicle that is going to be delivered, DS needs to have a quick look and prepare about some special items about the new model vehicle. I am sure they have other deliveries scheduled for Model S as well, the X delivery needs to fit in that schedule.
Yes, in theory I would agree, in reality I expect a delay of a few days, especially in case this is a new model vehicle that is going to be delivered (the ned some time to vacuum the Tesla sign in the boot ).

BTW nice to see the Signature lady laughing about seeing her new car first on a pic online before her DS called her. Nice to see that she does not really bother about a VIN posted.
Big thank you to the owner of the beautiful red Signature X and enjoy your new car

 

[Julian Cox]

These are good points. It seems to me that the beautiful catastrophe scenario is not exactly what we're shooting for anyway. It's not really ideal to put a bunch of workers in the unemployment line just to get traditional automakers serious about sustainable transport. Far better would it be for managers and investors to catch a vision for really great EVs and transition efficiently to that business. But perhaps too many donkeys are at the helm and only a disaster will change things.

A problem with humans is that good sense rarely trumps the desire to cling to power or to entitlement to a source of privileged income. Power is never given, always taken. The only way oil and ICE is going to be put out of business is by putting them out of business. What large corporations fail to appreciate is that there is a higher power and that is the collective will of consumers. There are all sorts of tricks with marketing and politics to throw obstacles in the way of consumer choice and to hamper new choices coming to market but bottom line a cheaper and more desirable product will unseat oil and ICE and it will happen destructively like the breaking of a dam rather than like a gentlemanly transition.

Someone earlier brought up Tony Seba. He has a presentation on technology disruption that shows a near total transition from horse and carriage to ICE in photographs of a New York Easter parade ten or maybe thirteen years apart. Technology disruptions are dramatic. They seem like they will take an unbelievably long time in prospect and when they happen they happen in cascade fashion unbelievably quickly. Especially from the perspective of the disrupted.

In fact protectionism only assists in the matter. SpaceX vs ULA provides a perfect case study. ULA blocked and blocked and blocked to maintain its monopoly on military satellite launches and when the customer finally said wait a minute we do want access to choice, the effect on ULA was catastrophic. CEO and 30% of the executive out, next contract up for grabs they could not even bid for it and until 2019 or 2020 at the earliest if they last that long they have nothing that can compete and without a direct $1 billion per year government subsidy to stay in business they would be long gone already - and this is before SpaceX commences reusable flights which will undercut ULA by at least 10:1 on price which it is bound to do before 2020.

Tesla is not shooting for destruction and layoffs in large auto. It has done everything it can to encourage and assist large auto in a rational transition but this is not up to Tesla. Technology disruption is a dynamic between the technology and the consumer. Tesla will be lifted by that tide and big auto demolished by it and there is nothing that either can do about it. A profoundly excellent EV at a competitive price if were offered by Ford for example would hasten the implosion of Ford's ICE business and hence the Ford Motor Company faster than anything Tesla does ever could. Musk probably knew that when open sourcing patents but it does not matter if he was just trying to help out of the goodness of his heart. What open sourcing the patents and publicly encouraging big auto to compete does for Tesla, is to hold Tesla blameless for the inevitable destruction of big auto, nothing more.

 

[Krugerrand]

What business reason is there for waiting and surprising unsuspecting owners with their $133,200 vehicles? If Tesla gave any information out it would be a different story, but they've been tight lipped. I would argue that it will have the opposite effect of delaying deliveries since most people have to move some things around financially before writing a check for $93,200+tax/tag/title.

For starters, maybe to avoid some of the crap that went on last winter over the P85Ds due to weather conditions, port strike et al... Or maybe to give the DSs time to detail the X's and go over them one last time while in the midst of trying to deliver the most vehicles in the history of the company and meet quarterly and yearly guidance to shut up all the you-know-whos, and allow a win to feel like a win.

This type of scenario wouldn't be an issue if people weren't so bloody obsessed with everything Tesla and pretty much stalking SCs and taking pictures of vehicle VINs to report back on an Internet Forum to get the natives all riled up. I've got to go check out the Porsche enthusiasts forum and see if Porsche fans are stalking their local dealerships and taking photos of VINs of new vehicles arriving in hopes of spotting a complete strangers specially ordered Cayenne.

But mostly there's not a thing wrong with surprising people and having some fun. People need to chill out and just enjoy life.

 

[jhm]

China Drops Consumer Fuel Discount To Fight Pollution | OilPrice.com

Smog levels in the capital area were elevated the previous week as well, and the government faced strong criticism for passing up the opportunity to order a red alert then. Smog levels in some areas around Beijing soared to 40 times the limits set by the World Health Organization. Levels of microscopic particulate matter carbon exhaust exceeded 900 micrograms per cubic meter.

The problem is so bad that researchers at the University of California at Berkeley say this pollution is killing 4,000 people in China each day, or fully one-sixth the the country’s premature deaths. “It’s a little hard to wrap your mind around the numbers,” said the report’s lead author, Robert Rhode.

4000 deaths per day! This is absolutely inhumane.