Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FluxCap]

TSLA has never since its IPO broken a prior pivot low on the monthly chart. It just did. Chart is broken technically, stops are being triggered today. There are two situations when a stock is "oversold", one when it is about to bounce, and the other when it is breaking down. When a stock is breaking down, it will be "oversold" all the way down. So be careful.

Indeed. Question is will this ER erase the no-news drop of the last week, or somehow confirm implied negative movement. I have trouble believing we are lower than this after next week's call if we are even remotely close to consensus numbers. A beat of any kind with sentiment this depressed could mean a 20% overnight gain.

I mean, what if they came within striking distance of cashflow positive with the massive Q4 sales push? I was gaming whether it was possible last night, and it's not out of the question. But I'm not even sure we need that to see 220+ again.

 

[FredTMC]

Just thought I'd mention that the whole market is off a cliff today straight from the open.

In other words, the weakness is not all TSLA.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Wow, the wheels have really fallen off! I have never seen a stock rocket $60 upward so I think no matter what the conference call brings we're not getting back to $225 anytime soon. No word from Elon to help the free fall makes me nervous. If X deliveries are so fabulous why the delay in reporting them? Yes, he exercised options recently to show his support but CEO's always do that when it's on the way down... And he's killing the market with the Model 3 comments. If he can't show the "whole car" and start the positive momentum fast... the dorky Bolt is going to blow a hole in Tesla business plan. I'm long but the company is letting the shareholders down.

Your probably inexperienced if you have never seen a stock rocket up 60 points.

 

[austinEV]

At this point just about every negative thing you can imagine is priced in. They could announce the Model X only kills 1 puppy per mile travelled and it would spark a relief rally </s> </fictional hyperbolic scenario>

 

[BornToFly]

Just thought I'd mention that the whole market is off a cliff today straight from the open.

In other words, the weakness is not all TSLA.

Appl is even. Nasdaq down less than 2%, TSLA down almost 6%.

 

[aznt1217]

Your probably inexperienced if you have never seen a stock rocket up 60 points.

Just new to TSLA

 

[farzyness]

At this point just about every negative thing you can imagine is priced in. They could announce the Model X only kills 1 puppy per mile travelled and it would spark a relief rally </s> </fictional hyperbolic scenario>

Wow really!? I thought it was 2 puppies per mile!

Stock +20%.

/s

 

[uselesslogin]

Appl is even. Nasdaq down less than 2%, TSLA down almost 6%.

NFLX and AMZN are down 4%.

 

[FredTMC]

F and GM 3%

 

[Julian Cox]

2016 fcf @ $172.44

 

[aznt1217]

View attachment 110193

lol. One can dream

 

[dreamingof3]

Here is what has made this drop starting 1/4/16 disturbing IMO. It was sudden, and to me unexpected. It's tenacity has been overall extremely disturbing. Think about this for a moment-242 to 171 in just over 1 trading month on the heels of????? Zero news officially verified from the company except 4q deliveries. I'd like to know what someone knows, honestly. Because IMO a 28% drop in a month isn't "normal" or just "macro" related. On the heels of the spike in short interest I'm even more curious to what is really going on. And BTW I am now wondering the likelihood of something else happening that is equally spectacular to the UPSIDE. I'm just saying I've seen a lot of things while studying the stock market over the years and this seems super odd. Wondering if this is a setup for a "superspike" in share price because not many can see it coming.

 

[Gerasimental]

F and GM 3%

GM down 3.5% on a beat!

 

[Subhuman]

This downturn is a fantastic buying opportunity. I just invested in a lot more TSLA. At today's price it's a bargain. I started buying a few years ago, though long after it broke $100. I plan on holding on to it for many years. The real potential for Tesla profits is in the Tesla Energy business. A decade from now, Tesla vehicles will be a thriving but minority part of the company. Trying to make rapid short term profits is, on balance, a losing proposition. The recent drop is driven by herd psychology, not rational analysis.

Before the market blew up I was going to sell some positions I had in other companies so I could free up some money incase TSLA decided to nose dive. Well, everything was doing so well I decided to let it ride. Now that the market has imploded everything I was going to sell is now in the red and I am kicking myself not because they are in the red but because I want to buy more TSLA but don't have the money on hand! Damn you stock market!

 

[FluxCap]

Here is what has made this drop starting 1/4/16 disturbing IMO. It was sudden, and to me unexpected. It's tenacity has been overall extremely disturbing. Think about this for a moment-242 to 171 in just over 1 trading month on the heels of????? Zero news officially verified from the company except 4q deliveries. I'd like to know what someone knows, honestly. Because IMO a 28% drop in a month isn't "normal" or just "macro" related. On the heels of the spike in short interest I'm even more curious to what is really going on. And BTW I am now wondering the likelihood of something else happening that is equally spectacular to the UPSIDE. I'm just saying I've seen a lot of things while studying the stock market over the years and this seems super odd. Wondering if this is a setup for a "superspike" in share price because not many can see it coming.

That is precisely what many of us are spending time figuring out. There have not been as many truly epic opportunities to make money trading TSLA in the short term in the last year as there were in 2013 and early 2014, but this one could be significant if directional movement is anticipated properly.

 

[MonroeSS]

F and GM 3%

GM was up 3% pre-market after reporting a record year. Now down 3.5%, a 6.5% swing in 2 hours. The market is brutal.

GM reports record $9.7 billion earnings in 2015

 

[dalalsid]

View attachment 110193

I highly doubt the Q4 +ve. Q1 maybe. Q2 slightly more likely.

 

[Noble Ninja]

The last time TSLA was around $170 was about two years ago in January 2014. The Tesla story has clearly made huge progress since then and has shown greater potential for future growth, so relative to back then, the current price is looking undervalued in comparison. In the long run (the big picture), most of us here are still confident in the future of this company.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Maybe investors finally started reading the forum and realize there is trouble in paradise? lol

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

There is no law prohibiting a company from refusing to directly sell products to a customer who is deemed by the company to be a liability or bad for business. In theory this person could buy a used Tesla, and Tesla would be required to service the vehicle. I suspect there is a lot more to this story.

I'll post these here as a few examples of sane "blacklists" :

http://mindovermotor.com/2013/01/30/chris-harris-beats-the-living-hell-out-of-a-ferrari-he-isnt-supposed-to-be-allowed-to-drive-lol/

http://readwrite.com/2015/01/13/apple-blocks-app-store-refund-abusers


http://slickdeals.net/f/5210502-how-to-get-off-staples-blacklist