dc_h
Active Member
It's a must solve pre model 3. It also increases SC productivity by 50% or more in best market. Snakes and self driving/parking cars will solve this issue in 2018.
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Those responses are missing the point; the salient part of my rant is below. But no matter; I've taken it over to the SpaceX forum guys, where it belongs.
Nice -- great data. I see the residential solar is coming in at 2.5x or so that of utility-scale again and not much below NG peaker plants. I'm still looking for a good reason why residential solar has much future.
The main reason is that this talks about cost to produce rather than cost to consume (i.e. buy from the energy company). For residential solar the price is the same while all other methods need to add on transmission costs and profit margins.
In Flanders (that's Belgium, Europe), we'll probably get smart meters, replacing (over time) the current system of meters that turn backwards when residential power generation exceeds self-consumption. This will probably happen in 2017 or 2018.
We have rather high electricity prices (between 25 and 30 eurocents/kWh, vat inc). The flemish goverment wants to promote self consumption, so my guess is that together with the smart meters they will also introduce a much more flexible pricing scheme, where electricity is even more expensive during peak consumption hours (e.g between 18:00 and 20:00) , and cheaper during low consumption hours (like sunny holiday periods with little industrial activity (we have one of the highest installed base of residential solar in the world)). The big problem in our region is risk of a collapsing grid in the winter if a number of events occur at the same time, like high consumption due to cold weather, no wind, no sun, and an aging nuclear park (that will probably be decommissioned soon) with high risk of reactors being shut down for maintenance.
Personally, I'm planning of eliminating my direct CO2 emissions entirely. Two years ago, I've replaced my natural gas heating with a heat pump,and this year I bought a Model S. My wife's Prius will be replaced with a Model 3 ASAP (we have one of the first reservations here).
So obviously I have a high (and increasing) electricity usage, but due to the pricing situation for solar panels, it doesn't make sense yet tà invest in solar panels.
Investing in storage tough will be a no brainer if we get higher fluctuations in electricity prices. When this happens, I might as well install solar panels, since it will increase the value I can get from a powerwall.
What I mean is that a higher proportion of green energy in the power mix will lead to higher variability in pricing, which will lead to a higher incentive to install residential storage, which will trigger higher amounts of resident solar. So we get into a virtuous circle!
===>Moderator-edited for the desired correct word<====
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Was it quarter 2 with the miss that Elon looked stress and tired but by the end of the quarter he was more relaxed and tweeting? Just a frame of reference, if he is confident that things are worked out and running smoothly and won't matter long term, it is reflected in his mood but it doesn't translate to immediate delivery numbers. I think it would be better to analyze the entire quarter and I don't remember too much going on the beginning of the quarter. There might have been a few hiccups. It doesnt seem from anecdotal evidence there has been too much trouble with deliveries. Though the low numbers from inside ev is a little concerning.
Does anyone have info for the service centers about being really busy with deliveries? We need a better idea since this is the next major short term catalyst. It can easily reverse the current potential break out.
Papafox, would it be possible to post some technical info with your daily trading analysis? I think it would have been very useful to have it all in one place for short term trading like the 50 and 200 day average and levels of support and resistance. I believe those are more relevant in short term. For example, I think the next resistance might be around 214. So that's about $11.5 upside from close Friday. I might buy some options three months out at a minimum. If we break 214 with good delivery numbers then I would pile in more money in options for the ride up to 230-240. In these cases the technicals would helpful keeping in mind that significant positive or negative news that technicals won't really matter.
caution and close observation is advised
I put in small PV system in 1999 (1.3kW array) and my meter would count down or up (non-racheting)
Electric company replaced with a smart meter in 2013 that only counts UP. If i feed the grid even a tiny bit, I get double charged and notices that my usage has increased
dennis
Model S Plaid
I invite you to be the first Bolt driver to attempt the 212.8 mile drive from Gilroy to Bakersfield on I-5, which includes the 1500' climb over the Grapevine. After your tow and 1 1/2 hours to refill the battery you can take I-99 on the way back. And regardless of what Google Maps says, I-5 is at least an hour quicker because the traffic moves at 80 mph, unless your are drafting semis at 55mph trying to preserve range.
On my first Model S road trip in Jan 2013 I over-trusted the rated mileage and after drafting semis the last 30 miles and praying there weren't any more grades to climb I pulled into the lone charger at Harris Ranch with exactly 1 mile of range left. Never made that mistake again,
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A positive post on Baidu applies, in part, to Tesla's prospects here as well--the new administration willing.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4031197-can-baidu-tap-multi-billion-dollar-opportunity#alt2
Apology for the source.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/4031197-can-baidu-tap-multi-billion-dollar-opportunity#alt2
Apology for the source.
One difference is explained already:
Another difference is that the costs include the installation labor I suppose, which is much higher for small-scale roof-top solar, than it is for large-scale ground-mounted utility scale solar parks, partly due to project size partly due to the extra expense of roof-top work.
However, this may not be true for all installs. E.g. I have self-installed my own solar array on my roof and thus got my total cost down to about half (paying only for the materials, panels, and railings and micro-inverters) of what was quoted by several companies I contacted locally. OK, this may not be typical for owners to venture into self-install, but it does highlight that half the cost is the install labor rather than the material.
This is where the Tesla solar-roof changes the equation. When the solar system goes up along with the initial roofing, the labor cost almost disappears into the roof install labor which would have been paid anyway even if it was not a solar roof just a traditional dumb roof. So there goes a factor of 2, add in the gain by not paying for transmission costs and profit of the utility and suddenly roof-top solar is CHEAPER for the customer / end-user than utility solar!
Thanks to Intl Professor for reminding me that I should have said 'virtuous circle'. Maybe it's a vicious circle for the Koch brothers only. In my native language, there's only one expression for both situations.
So I learned some English on the short term investing thread!
Moderator has replaced "vicious" with "virtuous" in the prior post. Thanks to both.
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Anyone else getting the feeling the 8.1 AP release will be a massive improvement compared to AP 1.0 hardware? I would have thought getting AP 2.0 hardware to match AP 1.0 would have been incredibly easy. It seems like the initial release for 2.0 hardware is going to mop the floor with the competion.
I found his choice of the word validation interesting. Obviously I could be reading too much into it but it seems to imply a new level of features to me.
Also, I've always thought superchargers looked like they were designed to have the middle section that's red to be removed and replaced with an updated module. Anyone with practical knowledge know if that's a reasonable expectation? I would have thought they would be rolling out self plugging chargers by now so that the chargers are ready when the software for self driving is. The fact they haven't makes me think it's a very easy switch over to install at existing chargers.
I found his choice of the word validation interesting. Obviously I could be reading too much into it but it seems to imply a new level of features to me.
Also, I've always thought superchargers looked like they were designed to have the middle section that's red to be removed and replaced with an updated module. Anyone with practical knowledge know if that's a reasonable expectation? I would have thought they would be rolling out self plugging chargers by now so that the chargers are ready when the software for self driving is. The fact they haven't makes me think it's a very easy switch over to install at existing chargers.
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Utility-scale competes with wholesale power.
Residential, and also C & I (commerical and industrial) competes with retail power, which includes transmission & distribution (T&D) costs. Transmission and distribution costs are typically between $50/Mwh and $60/Mwh. I'll do the math for you
If you subtract out $55 in avoided T&D, it brings the residential range down to $83 - $167.
The C & I range comes down to an amazing $33 - $138. (The low end of that is nothing short of spectacular, since it's cheaper than utility-scale.)
Residential is still elevated more than it should be. This is largely due to so-called "soft costs". In the US, it's mostly the marketing and overhead of the installers. These costs are low-hanging fruit which Tesla is trying to get rid of.
The other reason residential is elevated is that the fixed cost of installation on a particular site is spread over fewer panels. Tesla is trying to get rid of this by subsuming most of the installation cost in the cost of getting a new roof, which is currently a separate cost.
Time to install the circuits to prevent the grid from getting your energy, I guess.
I understand your pain. The situation in Flanders is similar (warning, the following explanation is actually on topic).
Until a couple of years ago, there were very high (unreasonably high) subsidies AND tax incentives for installing solar panels:
- installation cost was deductable in the income tax. At 50% income tax this basically meant the government payed half of the installation cost.
- you got payed for the next 20 year because you produced green electricity (green electricity certificates)
- you could consume this electricity yourself
- your excess production caused the meter to turn back
Many flemish people thought this was an offer you couldn't refuse, resulting in the mother of all solar panel installs. Personally I didn't install any, under the reasoning 'If it sounds to good to be true, and payed by the government, it's only a matter of time before this will backfire'.
Sure enough, a couple of years ago this system was gradually weakened untill it was completely eliminated. CUrrently, solar power needs to stand on its own merits.
The green electricity certificates are payed by an extra tax on electricity, which means it is mostly payed by the people without solar panels.
Another law ended the free backwards turning meter. SInce last year, if you have solar panels and a backwards turning meter, you wil get taxed about 100 euro/year per kilowatt inverters you have installed. This means that you pay full price for the first half of the kWhs your solar panel generates.
Still this wasn't enough to account for the oversubsidisation of the past, and this year a new flat tax was introduced for all electricty users. E.G. I. Now I pay 290 euro/year just because I consume between 10000 and 20000 kWh per year (to be clear this is on top of the previously mention electricity prices and taxes).
We are too much to the north to go off grid: with any kind of solar system size, we either have way too much production in the summer, or totally not enough in the winter.
This is were I get on topic: WIth reasonably priced storage, I don't need the the backwards turning meter. I can opt for the non-backwards turning meter, and self consume everything (using a battery to store the surplusses I have while the suns shines during the day), and not donate half of my energy to the government because the non-backwards turning meter doesn't incur the tax that make you loose half of your own generated electricity.
Currently, the non-backwards turning meter is different hardware than the backwards turning meter. WIth a smart meter, deciding or optimising what kind of strategy to use to improve self consumption will be a matter of software and a matter of timing I charge (or maybe discharge in the case of Vehicle to grid).
I' m eagerly awaiting the day that Tesla can install a powerwall with enough software to optimise the timing of my electricity use, that's the time where it will again make economically sense to buy solar panels (probably the max capacity possible on my roof).
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-solar-record-20161214-story.html And this is before the Tesla Solar Roof panels. The future is bright for solar but no mention of Tesla Energy. Wonder if TE will have any mention in Q4 ER.
I'm suspicious of the current regulatory regime in the same way you were, which is why I'm planning my installed hardware to be designed like that (solar + storage, no exports). I may set it up to allow exports at my discretion but I want to make sure I don't get penalized by a law change.
Ameliorate
Member
Yes, I think I can add some technical points, such as 50 dma and 200 dma to the daily trading charts thread. They might be updated when something significant happens, rather than daily, to keep the workload reasonable.
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