Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FANGO]

300+ in line at Fashion Island, 10 minutes after open.

Dropbox - model3hyperlapse.mov

The line doubled, tripled, and quadrupled back on itself. They were bringing out stanchions constantly to build the line longer, because the line just kept getting longer and longer than everyone's estimates. The second corner I go around in the video was the original place the stanchions stopped - all of us who were lined up at 6am thought even that was a bit optimistic.

Note also, that walled-up store-in-progress at the end of the video is a "Lincoln experience center" - mall store for Lincoln brand cars. "Coming soon." Fashion Island, Newport Beach

 

[Drax7]

Demand was never the problem, and has never been the problem. If you think demand is the problem, you shouldn't touch TSLA at $250, at $200 or even at $150. The problem for buyers (people considering whether to invest at $180 or $250) has been about execution and fulfillment of promises. IF Tesla can deliver, then it's cheap at $250, if they can't it's not necessarily cheap... If you are short, and your thesis for being short at $250 is demand, you should have covered at $180 and $150 a few months ago, not gotten greedy. If you continued to be short, you wouldn't blindly cover now expecting a short squeeze, you would slowly unload your position over time. The point is, I don't see a short squeeze being triggered, and I don't see any reason for long term investors to gobble up shares at $250 when they can wait for a nice dip further down the road, and a clearer picture. Hence, I don't see any sort of upward pressure to shoot us up and keep us there for the near term until Tesla can show that they can deliver on their promises (ON TIME this time).

so you are a sold out bull lecturing us on how markets work , very cute

 

[FredTMC]

300+ in line at Fashion Island, 10 minutes after open.

Dropbox - model3hyperlapse.mov

The line doubled, tripled, and quadrupled back on itself. They were bringing out stanchions constantly to build the line longer, because the line just kept getting longer and longer than everyone's estimates. The second corner I go around in the video was the original place the stanchions stopped - all of us who were lined up at 6am thought even that was a bit optimistic.

Note also, that walled-up store-in-progress at the end of the video is a "Lincoln experience center" - mall store for Lincoln brand cars. "Coming soon." Fashion Island, Newport Beach

Thanks for posting!

 

[Julian Cox]

Demand is currently being indicated to be higher than even most bullish projections. I don't understand how a person who has worked through the meaning of the numbers we are seeing today could not view this as a positive for the stock. It is a major de-risk and confirmation of the investment thesis. This is important. And in my opinion, not priced in.

Projections? Analysts or here? Or am I the only sorry individual sitting here going, yup seems fine? Because that would me my first surprise today if that were true.

You're right, it isn't priced in - but then again none of these deposits are locked in either. They are just refundable indicators of intent pending whether or not the car is any good. When the car is extraordinary, then the chance of these becoming real and locked in goes through the roof depending on just how extraordinary we're talking about. Then it will get priced in.

Just an interesting thing: Stupid, stupid arrogant GM in its lust to make a PR move on Tesla, them and their shills have given the TSLA shorts a benchmark to beat at about ankle height. Otherwise known as the GM Bolt. So what are we looking for tonight?

Multiple choice format:

A. Two pairs of magnetic boots.
B. A car that is better value for money than a GM Bolt.
C. A car that is clearly more than double the value for the money of a GM Bolt and therefore terminal for customer interest in ICE technology generally - oh and as for Toyota's stupid hydrogen play - what a joke - if not what a fraud.

The bears and Shorts can cope with B.

If it's C and it will be, fasten your seatbelts.

 

[Emil]

GM Battles Tesla in the Electric Car Market

Does this guy know that the model 3 is supposed to start at a lower price then a bolt?

 

[Realist]

Just my view, breaking $240 is not necessarily a good thing for long-term investors. The stock will reach several thousand in 10 years. Low price is beneficial for investors who keep adding.

10000!

Very good.

 

[jhm]

Only please remember: prose, not poetry, folks! Stay off that stuff.

Hillary supporter?

 

[SBenson]

10000!

Very good.

Realist, what are you doing here? Don't you have anything better to do in your life? like spamming each other's twitter feeds between Logical Thought and yourself?

 

[Lessmog]

Hillary supporter?

Limerick lambaster & haiku heretic. In-rhyme intolerant.

 

[c041v]

I reserved my Model 3 at the Highland Park, Illinois store. A product specialist said at least 200 people had been there. It looked more like 300 to me when I left around 10:30 am CDT, a half hour after the store opening. An employee monitoring the queue said a lot more were at the Grand Avenue store on the near northside of Chicago, Illinois. I then drove for 15 minutes to the store at the Old Orchard Mall in Skokie, Illinois. Before 11:30 am CDT a product specialist told me there had been about 160 so far. They'll be open until 9:00 pm CDT and expect more during evening hours.

The person in front of me in the Highland Park queue drove down from Milwaukee, Wisconsin. The one behind me drove from Madison, Wisconsin. Tesla stores are outlawed in Wisconsin. A Highland Park product specialist anticipated that the online reservations this evening would far exceed all of those made in stores.

I think the number for Calgary this morning was 89 at opening. It was growing much quicker by the time I left (Was #13 in line). As someone else mentioned the comparison here, the Apple store had maybe 15-20.

An interesting side observation - A lot of people that were entering the mall around open were very curious as to what was going on at the Tesla store, which may generate additional interest on its own. The CBC was even carrying a poorly-researched story about the Model 3 unveiling tonight on hourly news updates.

 

[FredTMC]

I think the number for Calgary this morning was 89 at opening. It was growing much quicker by the time I left (Was #13 in line). As someone else mentioned the comparison here, the Apple store had maybe 15-20.

An interesting side observation - A lot of people that were entering the mall around open were very curious as to what was going on at the Tesla store, which may generate additional interest on its own. The CBC was even carrying a poorly-researched story about the Model 3 unveiling tonight on hourly news updates.

Yep. I educated folks at the mall who asked what the line was all about

 

[Ulmo]

The silence on CNBC about the Model 3 launch is deafening. They are repeatedly showing Tim Cook paying a surprise visit to an Apple Store for the iPhone SE launch, though.

Way to miss the point, CNBC.

In all fairness, their poll yesterday did quite a bit. Today's not yet written; post-analysis will be there tomorrow for the whole show. I kind of liked the silence during the storm. It allowed me to hunker down and weather well.

Regarding the demand vs. execution issue, I think the main execution difficulty comes with management: stuff like how to hire and buy, organize, and verify good outcome. It is true that that isn't necessarily done right just because there is demand. But part of execution is also business partnerships, ordering, capital investments, etc.. During a development and construction cycle, having the bankers on your side allows the company parts to focus on their respective tasks without that extra distraction. Of course, there is a danger of excess comfort. But Musk isn't known for being comfortable to be around, so if anything, a little class raising might be in order. All I'm really saying though is that good demand isn't a negative, and is a positive.

 

[FURY]

Reserved mine around 9:30 am after the store opened 30 min. I arrived at 7:15, was ~60 in the line. When the store opened there were about 150 people. I'm in Santa Barbara and the population density is quite low compare to the big cities. Therefore the line exceeded my expectation by a long shot.

I estimated 350-400 at the Miission Viejo, Ca. store, at store opening.

How many do you think were reserved before 10:00AM?

Thank you very much

Fury

 

[Julian Cox]

this is a historic day because it's a day when we really declare war on the ICE. The question is who will win?.

We will. Customers. Never forget the customer is king. No more customer interest, no more power for corporations.

Neither ICE nor Big Oil can fight a loss of customer interest - and this thing could really stick a fork in the the whole oil and ICE bubble - which has traded on abusive, cynical and frankly intellectually insulting consumer entrapment for decades contrary to the express will of an entire generation. This isn't about Tesla declaring war - Musk has repeatedly and publicly pleaded with both the Oil and ICE industries to invest in renewables and EVs. Anyone spot the aggression here - sure its there but can you spot it? Most I think will have no difficulty spotting the stupidity and arrogance of a lot of fat industry moguls and to hold their failure to listen culpable after tonight.

Today is the day of consumers finally seeing a realistic means of escape from a seriously horrible trap and the exodus is going to get pretty interesting - like biblical proportions interesting.

 

[Johan]

10000!

Very good.

 

[jhm]

Limerick lambaster & haiku heretic. In-rhyme intolerant.

Along those lines, are alliterations allowed?

 

[Fallenone]

I estimated 350-400 at the Miission Viejo, Ca. store, at store opening.

How many do you think were reserved before 10:00AM?

Thank you very much

Fury

By the look of it, including other countries (US west coast is almost the last to open, except Hawaii), and Tesla/SpaceX employee early reservation, 50k at Pacific time 10 am is reasonable. 100k is doable before tonight's event.

 

[SBenson]

Musk on Twitter

"Online ordering at Tesla.com will now open at 7:30pm Pacific to ensure no server overload. Presentation still at 8:30."

The guy who built PayPal is worried about server loads?? This really means the demand/interest is way off the hook. Much beyond expectations.

 

[MikeC]

Finally got my reservations in around 1 pm in Pasadena after lining up at 9 am. Several hundred people in front and when I left at 1 pm, there were still several hundred people waiting - and the line was not that much shorter than it was when I lined up at 9.

 

[30seconds]

Just went by a Bay Area store. Still 100+ people in line