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Ah what a mess.
Just a couple of days ago, someone was mentioning the open interest of some options and in particular the 200$ ones, saying that considering the low volumes (I think that's what was written...) it wouldn't be too difficult to drag it to 200. Well, here we are.
Same pattern for the last couple of days as well very good start and then like soufflé...pfff. But today no little rally at the end.
For the shorts becoming greedy after a drop of 40 $, I'm afraid they've had more in the past and in the absence of any good news (what about energy solutions?) seeing how we easily lose 4 to 5 %, I wouldn't be surprise to see another 10% in the following days...Not that I want it of course.
Just a couple of days ago, someone was mentioning the open interest of some options and in particular the 200$ ones, saying that considering the low volumes (I think that's what was written...) it wouldn't be too difficult to drag it to 200. Well, here we are.
Same pattern for the last couple of days as well very good start and then like soufflé...pfff. But today no little rally at the end.
For the shorts becoming greedy after a drop of 40 $, I'm afraid they've had more in the past and in the absence of any good news (what about energy solutions?) seeing how we easily lose 4 to 5 %, I wouldn't be surprise to see another 10% in the following days...Not that I want it of course.
Yes, I agree with you but unfortunately that's not how Toyota works (culturewise) and they wouldn't do it because this kind of thing would require a bit of shareholder voting... which is a stretch because why would you fund a company that might crush you. In addition, they were/are undergoing their own re-branding/imaging to appeal to younger customers.
jesselivenomore
Member
The market is looking for $8.7B in revenue this year, which is above 80k in deliveries plus a ramp in Tesla energy. Those have been the estimates for awhile now. The market is now pricing in the possibility that TSLA will not hit those numbers in a recessionary or tightening credit environment. If you do not believe in that possibility then this is a great buying opportunity. However, if we do enter a recession, TSLA will not be immune.
Raffy.Roma
Rome (Italy)
200.00 looks like some kind of hard floor today. If all the 200.0 orders get taken out, maybe that floor will drop? I have an open order at 195. Any lower and I'll have to rethink how much of my portfolio I need to allocate to Tesla and what all I can sell.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
Oil rallied into the close. Classic.
TSLA will trade with the naz into tomorrow. Hopefully we will see a rally at some point
TSLA will trade with the naz into tomorrow. Hopefully we will see a rally at some point
You can't blame the automakers for being reluctant to seriously commit to electric vehicles. Every time Toyota, VW, GM and Ford report their respective quarterly earnings the management must be thinking, "OK, that was good. Let us continue what we have been doing." or "Wow that was a great quarter, lets stay the course and keep up the good work".
They also have a massive disincentive to commit, four times a year when Tesla reports earnings. Call it shortsighted if you will but they must believe change takes time. If change happens too quickly it might be too late before they realize and take corrective actions. They are counting on a slow growth for EVs and a gradual transition. Every automaker is believes the time for electric vehicles hasn't come yet and they think they will be ready when it does. None of them are hurting at the moment, either financially or in their ability to move metal (Most issues they face are self inflicted - VW emissions, GM ignition scandal, Toyota gas pedal etc, Ford and Hyundai lying on fuel economy etc). Unless they start losing sales and start hurting financially they may never commit. It will be too late for a few by then. EVs will also have a tough time once they start selling in decent numbers. More and more EVs sold will depress gas prices slowing further EV adoption.
They also have a massive disincentive to commit, four times a year when Tesla reports earnings. Call it shortsighted if you will but they must believe change takes time. If change happens too quickly it might be too late before they realize and take corrective actions. They are counting on a slow growth for EVs and a gradual transition. Every automaker is believes the time for electric vehicles hasn't come yet and they think they will be ready when it does. None of them are hurting at the moment, either financially or in their ability to move metal (Most issues they face are self inflicted - VW emissions, GM ignition scandal, Toyota gas pedal etc, Ford and Hyundai lying on fuel economy etc). Unless they start losing sales and start hurting financially they may never commit. It will be too late for a few by then. EVs will also have a tough time once they start selling in decent numbers. More and more EVs sold will depress gas prices slowing further EV adoption.
Tesla has no problem moving as many 6 figure cars as it can produce in just about any economic environment.
The short-term reason to buy is the financials to come out in the Q4 call and the unveiling of the Model 3 (followed by a lot of reservations). Deliveries figures are solid for Q4, so no reason for the drop aside from macro concerns which I don't believe will continue. There's fear in the market and that's pretty much it. Nothing has changed fundamentally with Tesla.
Oh, believe me. I could have picked plenty of other quotes but I don't have the time to dig in old stuff. I just picked a strategically important point (Tesla burning bridges with both Toyota and Daimler).
CALGARYARSENAL
Member
Geez! I told everybody who likes this stock and future prospects to nibble at 200.00. Which just happened to be the low of the day. If anybody is not long term, please sell any rally tomorrow am. It would be typical to rally after such a move, but I think it will be 195 at open.
ZachShahan
Active Member
I didn't say $300 before $200. I just think it'll break $300 this year.
But I agree (and also stated) that macro effects can have a huge effect and are quite unpredictable.
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I don't keep up with this thread enough to know your history, but I genuinely am wondering why you are here.
And thoroughly agree that it might be useful if you backed up your short statements with something, but simply spouting bear one-liners doesn't do much for me.
I own a lot of TSLA stock and had told myself I would not buy anymore (too many "eggs" in one basket). However, I too believe 300 is in the cards this year. Certainly 240, which would be a 20% return. So I just transferred another large chunk of cash into my brokerage account. My wife will kill me, but I just backed up the truck. I just wonder if it will drop to 190 or 180 before all this doom and gloom is over, and if I should wait a few more days. Now where did I put that magic 8 ball...?!?
I'm thinking something similar but instead I just sold a bunch of March 180 puts.
ZachShahan
Active Member
But Daimler got a lot of cash in that stock sale.
Tbh, was sort of surreal seeing that. Goes to show how deeply the psychological challenge for incumbents is. That was their best asset, and they blew it.
I am still a big Ghosn fan, but also agree Nissan-Renault is blowing it. Naturally, it can very easily be argued that they made the wrong decisions from the start. But I think they have had a pretty good start, and could have taken that momentum into an EV brand that got away from several of the key challenges EVs underneath the Nissan/Renault brands face.
I think Ghosn has good vision, but he's also getting old (close to retirement) and doesn't seem visionary enough (sort of like a C-grade student in Elon's "gifted" class, which Elon is getting an A+ in) to maintain "leadership" in EVs and turn it into real leadership.
I'd love to see Renault-Nissan come out with some surprises, but given Ghosn's statement on faster chargers (not to mention approaching the EV market in a better way), I don't have much hope.
Believe me, I'm not investing in any of the other automakers, but have been planning to get in on BYD before it blows up (which I think it could).
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Haha, I understand both dilemmas.
The "problem" is, I don't remember the last time I felt comfortable selling TSLA. I sold stock in a great company to buy more TSLA this past week, as it was on one of its semi-predictable highs and I can buy again when it goes back down to a lower price. But with TSLA, I don't see such opportunities. If it goes to $300 or $320 or whatever, I wouldn't sell. Only time I can see myself selling is if some really bad news just came out and I took the opportunity to unload and buy again at a presumably much lower price off the bounce.
Wish I had waited till 200 to add two more helpings of TSLA, but still feel like I got a deal at 217 and 207. And the downtrend seems dominated by the broader market, which doesn't seem logical to me right now.
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