mutle
Member
It has been confirmed that Tesla stores accept pre-orders everywhere on March 31st. So in fact people in Europe will be able to make a pre-order on March 31st before the US, but there will be separate queues per region.
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It has been confirmed that Tesla stores accept pre-orders everywhere on March 31st. So in fact people in Europe will be able to make a pre-order on March 31st before the US, but there will be separate queues per region.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
On reliability of $100k plus cars.
Mercedes Benz S Class has consistently been the global top seller in the $100k prices class for over a decade.
And for over a decade it regularly,but not always, is named Consumer Reports least reliable midsize or fullsize luxury car.
Mercedes Benz S Class has consistently been the global top seller in the $100k prices class for over a decade.
And for over a decade it regularly,but not always, is named Consumer Reports least reliable midsize or fullsize luxury car.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Back of the napkin math means they'd need A LOT of employees to handle 10k reservations in one day (about 20 serving one customer per minute non-stop for 10 hrs straight).
Should have been clearer. That number is for all of Germany
Wow! According to wikipedia, Germany represented 3.14% of global sales in 2015. If that ratio holds for the Model 3, 10,000 German reservations would mean 318,471 globally!
That seems WAY too high, but I want to believe...
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Let's not forget about Panasonic and also that Tesla has the option to expand the GF1 area. Panasonic has loads of capital and would probably be ready to invest a lot in increased battery production if the demand is proven. This would mean a higher cost per KWh than from GF1, but they could use those more expensive batteries for S+X and therefore still be profitable, freeing up the batteries from the extended GF1 to use with Model 3.
There is still the problem with Fremont capacity though so they will need another car factory.
I think demand for 1 million cars a year 2020 is totally realistic and I would bet on it to happen.
But to me it seems they have a better chance getting batteries for 1 million cars than being able to assemble them. One interesting data that I would like to know is how much it costs to build a 500k+ year car factory.
There is still the problem with Fremont capacity though so they will need another car factory.
I think demand for 1 million cars a year 2020 is totally realistic and I would bet on it to happen.
But to me it seems they have a better chance getting batteries for 1 million cars than being able to assemble them. One interesting data that I would like to know is how much it costs to build a 500k+ year car factory.
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I think we're thinking too small here.
My guess is Tesla will have reservations for a million M3 before the first one is delivered to its customer.
I am amuzed (easy to do) by the top line of this article ...
Big oil declares war on the electric car
Convenient misspelling ... Kock ... sums it up!
Big oil declares war on the electric car
Convenient misspelling ... Kock ... sums it up!
Should have been clearer. That number is for all of Germany
There are 20 Tesla stores in Germany, 10000 reservations work out to an average of 500 per store, which is much higher than my earlier speculation of 300. It is going to be fantastic if Germany can deliver so many reservations.
Ulmo
Active Member
I propose we shift tax burden of Middle East (international oil market sellers) military activity 100% to oil producers, as parity to ending clean energy tax breaks ("subsidies"). This means on both sides: Muslim attacks taxed to oil; photovoltaic panels and electric cars no tax break. Target repayment of current national debt being paid for oil wars as bare minimum litmus test for how much this oil tax should be, but probably much more, due to issues I discuss hereafter. To phase in, first do oil because it has legacy tax advantage, then two years later start the clean energy tax break phase outs. At the same time as the clean energy phase outs, phase out cap and trade (permission to pollute) and phase in a new fund to pay for sick people and ecology repair from polluters paid by polluters at estimate of cost (with output adjustments when funds are disbursed to fix problems). I'm open to ideas of different spicket points --- oil well or gas sales point --- doesn't really matter, as long as the distributed burden is enough and proportioned appropriately to pay the future costs for every bit of pollution plus the multi trillion dollar military spending debt pay down.
Oil taxpayers could probably fund pollution payments via collateralized loan guarantees made off of clean energy products, such as buy options from Tesla car owners and sun collector owners, according to these accounting needs. (Has an interesting symmetry to current tax based brokering by government.)
How's that for a fair offer, Koch Bros?
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tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
As much as I want to believe the majority of Tesla employees are reserving a Model 3, I suspect the percentage is more like 15-30%, if that.
off-topic: tax the culprit
I share your sentiments:
Politically impossible today of course...
but it will just happen anyway...
and so soon, I think, that it will surprise us.
I share your sentiments:
Politically impossible today of course...
but it will just happen anyway...
and so soon, I think, that it will surprise us.
Ulmo
Active Member
To bring it back to topic: waiting for glacial speed political movements in our multitiered government makes it seem off topic, but Koch Bros spreading the red herring of "clean energy subsidy" across the table is the same as us doing "dirty energy subsidy" talk to the same politicians, so the market shouldn't react to either side lopsidedly.
Ulmo
Active Member
Ok. Waiting for the open. I'm stuck in hold, watching the marketeers covort in the mud
My platform doesn't show the bid & ask queues, just the first in line. Looking forward to better tools, once I find them.
My platform doesn't show the bid & ask queues, just the first in line. Looking forward to better tools, once I find them.
Assuming the Tesla Model 3 offers a value proposition on a par with $45K BMW at an effective discount to the consumer of $10,000 up front, plus another $1K+ savings in running costs annually before incentives where applicable (and they are applicable in many places).
Assuming The Model 3 addresses a markets with an average new car price of around $33K (like America) plus $1000s per year in running costs.
Then objectively the Model 3 ought to be received in the auto market generally as simply the best value for money proposition as a new car for anyone that can afford a new car of about $25K or above - and it may well be more exciting to consumers at the low-end of that scale than just buying another Camry or Prius from a car dealer and resuming the pay at the pump cycle because family budget dictates, when the same budget or close enough will run the Model 3 without that indignity.
It rarely makes sense in investing circles to dream in hyperbolic numbers but objectively this remains true. The addressable market for this car is completely disconnected from Tesla's or anyone else's projections for capacity or ability to scale or just about anything else. Tesla has been accepted in the world as an Auto Maker, just like Ford, Toyota, GM, BMW, Audi and Mercedes - Tesla has even had that description forced upon it by its most rabid detractors and by the prognostications of industry "experts" like Bob Lutz - and here Tesla the Auto Maker comes with a better car at a better price. Are they suddenly not an Auto Maker? No! Too late for that. One other point to mention - most prospective auto consumers surveyed tend to tick the box marked "innovation" as their most important purchasing criterion and when included, hit to box marked Tesla when indicating the most innovative auto brand.
What would anyone faced with that offer - a better car at a better price - do when they are in the market for a new car? Choose a worse one at a higher price from a tired and boring Auto Maker just because adding their name to a Tesla reservation tally would contribute to making that list unrealistically large according to some talking-head analyst on Bloomberg or CNBC - or to make way for someone else to get in line before them? I don't think so and most people can't be bothered with Bloomberg or CNBC anyway and would rather watch the Sport Channel, Game of Thrones or something on Netflix. Whatever the reservation tally, it will have no connection to reason besides the reasons affecting consumer choice and objectively there is NOTHING preventing whole percentages or even double digit percentages of the entire auto market choosing this car if it looks and performs better and simply appeals more than other cars that cost more money. Tesla's servers have more capacity to register customers than the sum of the world's vehicle production capacity, Tesla has plenty of room in its server racks for all comers.
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I don't know what layout, what robots, what assembly line Toyota had at the Fremont plant. There is no reason for me to think that Tesla could not improve upon Toyota's efficiency and double the output from the same space. Perhaps 1 million cars/year is possible from the Fremont factory....
I agree Julian. The only thing I feel confident about is the lower bound of Model 3 demand, how high it can go is impossible to say. The 1 million by 2020 is my lower bound number.
To some degree I think it would be better for Tesla's long term value to charge more for Model 3 and have larger margins and then lessen demand that way and use the profits to expand factories. This would also make the other manufacturers slower to react which would further extend Tesla's lead in EV. But as we all know this would go against their mission of accelerating EV adoption.
To some degree I think it would be better for Tesla's long term value to charge more for Model 3 and have larger margins and then lessen demand that way and use the profits to expand factories. This would also make the other manufacturers slower to react which would further extend Tesla's lead in EV. But as we all know this would go against their mission of accelerating EV adoption.
off topic: taxing the culprit, but trying to get on topic
governments are more reactive (to crises etc) than pro-active (to good policy).
The iceberg, which is Musk's secret master plan, and of which we have seen only the little bit above the water, will sink the Titanic. On the Titanic we have all auto OEM's, all power utilities, all of the fossil fuel industries plus quite a lot else that we take for granted.
The Koch Bros are passengers, merely trying to rearrange the deck chairs. They'll go down too.
When it is obvious that the Titanic is sinking, our mainly re-active governments will instigate better energy policies.
Is this vision too grandiose?
I don't think so
And we can thank Musk.
Saying that he wanted to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport will I think turn out to be the understatement of the century.
governments are more reactive (to crises etc) than pro-active (to good policy).
The iceberg, which is Musk's secret master plan, and of which we have seen only the little bit above the water, will sink the Titanic. On the Titanic we have all auto OEM's, all power utilities, all of the fossil fuel industries plus quite a lot else that we take for granted.
The Koch Bros are passengers, merely trying to rearrange the deck chairs. They'll go down too.
When it is obvious that the Titanic is sinking, our mainly re-active governments will instigate better energy policies.
Is this vision too grandiose?
I don't think so
And we can thank Musk.
Saying that he wanted to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport will I think turn out to be the understatement of the century.
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