Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Johan]

Well, Sir, you are quite a hypocrite - just take another look at your avatar and DO take day off to head to the closest Tesla store.

Touché. However, as an investor I have a strong incentive to incentivize others to go stand in line . As we've discussed all this physical standing in line is an excellent marketing ploy by Tesla. They sure are getting a lot of value for their minuscle marketing budget...

 

[Drax7]

Never seen people line up for a car or car reservation.
The torch has been passed to a new generation. JFK
The next Nokia, Motorola, blackberry , are you watching.

I hope there are no riots.

 

[Citizen-T]

Roughly 150 in line in Raleigh

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

google spreadsheet of the number of people in line at each location
Model 3 Line Update Spreadsheet

 

[Julian Cox]

Yes, you're right, Q1 delivery numbers will be out in a couple of days. But as far as M3 reservation numbers, it's an assumption that we'll receive any reservation numbers or a tweet stating reservation numbers before Q1. I wouldn't bank on it but sit safely until the time when we can at least assume with certainty that they'll tell the world more, and that would be on the Q1 ER. Reason I'm saying this is for the people who are sitting on very short term options (early to mid April) to consider broadening their time frame a little to capture the Q1 ER. Just a thought....

IMPORTANT: It is not in Tesla's interests as a business to comfirm it's reservation numbers. This is proprietary strategic information. The Australian store staff reportedly confirmed that they won't. There is no reason for them to change this policy which they have progressively strengthened over the years. As soon as they give this datapoint potential competitors in China for example can work up a quantifiable investment case and US obstructionists can build a quantifiable case for an anti-Tesla lobbying and without it they are left to guess in the dark not knowing something that Tesla knows while the doubters and deniers help suppress competitive and obstructionist resolve on Tesla's behalf.

Best not to build hopes on a datapoint reveal for a short-term stock pump. That is not how they roll.

The first time Tesla uses this information will be in trade for massive material gain FOR THE BUSINESS - i.e. Incorporated in the prospectus for a massive minimally dilutive and ridiculously low-interest bond sale, NOT to help speculators to cash out of short term calls. The most likely timing for this IMO remains around the Q2 ER where the reservation account total becomes public information unless they apply to the SEC for confidentiality - which I think is unlikely. This is also the timing when the longer term reservation trends for M3 will be solidified in data and coincident with when Tesla has stated it will start the big push for pre-production capacity ramp CapEx. Anything prior to that would be opportunistic but suboptimal from a strategic perspective and this management team is way smart enough to know it.

 

[SBenson]

FWIW, per MarkIt daily data, short-interest peaked on Mar 22 and has been falling every day since then (up to yesterday). The soft price action is really week longs de-risking more than any short attacks. Or more correctly, the stock is consolidating with both longs and shorts de-risking a bit going into the event.

 

[kenliles]

10am store open time- Orlando up to 500-600

 

[Ukland Wombat]

What do you disagree with? 100% probability of price rocket up because of Model 3 reveal? The skepticism towards Tesla is ingrained. You see it among the analysts too for example $150 price targets and 15k Model 3 reservations the last week. The more you know about Tesla the more positive you tend to be and given that analysts should be more positive than the market on average.

I think we will see the price go up to ATH but I also think there is a quite big chance it won't and stay where it is.
But if it doesn't go up now it will happen one year from now or even later.

The first line you used.

Lango said: "It is possible Model 3 won't do much for the stock but as a long term fundamental investor you don't know when the push upwards will happen and when the market will start "to get it"."​

Don't know how the stock will move of course, except in the general direction of up, and very much so, and in 30days.

My confidence to bet so, is in the fact that all TM has to do to multiply reservation numbers by 10 (WAG) is to put a cut-off date for reserving the Performance version of the M3. I will quote myself here from the OP of another thread I started so you will better understand how I think:

I said: "Fortuitously, the reservation deposit is completely independent of configuration, Performance or otherwise, so potential reservers all over the world will say to themselves..."Well, I don't want the performance version because of the expense, but hey that's a neat EPS feature, and it costs nothing more to get in line for, and of course I can always cancel and walk away from the whole thing, so I have nothing to lose and everything to gain by going online right away to reserve before the cut off.""​

(BTW if you want the context, the thread title starts: "Will the missing 10kwh....)

I think the posters in this forum are underestimating the probability that this very powerful card will be played tonight...

There is a problem..."the longer the line the less I want to join it".

A cut-off date is the tool to overcome this problem. I sense that most who post here don't see it.

It is very clear to me. With this simple cut-off tool, TM will suck the life out of the previously assumed revenue streams that the automotive industry expects to receive, not just a couple of years ahead, but maybe six years or more ahead! It will be obvious to everyone within 30 days.

If Musk plays it, the consequence are simply mind-boggling (not even commented about in this forum). Julian comes closest IMHO, but he looks conservative to me.

Musk does nothing by half-measure, he likes superlatives, has the automotive world in the palm of his hand if the M3 has any 'wow' about it, and will play his hand to the fullest.

I STRESS: THIS IS MY OPINION. I AM OFTEN WRONG! I AM NEVER 100% CERTAIN (like some who post here)

I think Musk will close off M3 Performance variant Reservations with a deadline on a day between April 20 and April 30, and if the market conditions are right, raise capital roughly equal to the sum of deposits, and then go into Q1 ER with unbelievable capital and deposits and colour in the road map ahead for the rest of 2016 turning over past projections...(we've been going along in first gear but its like accelerating downhill (less resistance to picking up speed) in third from here on).

 

[Larken]

IMPORTANT: It is not in Tesla's interests as a business to comfirm it's reservation numbers. This is proprietary strategic information. The Australian store staff reportedly confirmed that they won't. There is no reason for them to change this policy which they have progressively strengthened over the years. As soon as they give this datapoint potential competitors in China for example can work up a quantifiable investment case and US obstructionists can build a quantifiable case for an anti-Tesla lobbying and without it they are left to guess in the dark not knowing something that Tesla knows while the doubters and deniers help suppress competitive and obstructionist resolve on Tesla's behalf.

Best not to build hopes on a datapoint reveal for a short-term stock pump. That is not how they roll.

The first time Tesla uses this information will be in trade for massive material gain FOR THE BUSINESS - i.e. Incorporated in the prospectus for a massive minimally dilutive and ridiculously low-interest bond sale, NOT to help speculators to cash out of short term calls. The most likely timing for this IMO remains around the Q2 ER where the reservation account total becomes public information unless they apply to the SEC for confidentiality - which I think is unlikely. This is also the timing when the longer term reservation trends for M3 will be solidified in data and coincident with when Tesla has stated it will start the big push for pre-production capacity ramp CapEx. Anything prior to that would be opportunistic but suboptimal from a strategic perspective and this management team is way smart enough to know it.

Yes I agree, you just said it in a much better and in depth way than I tried to do. Like you say, I think they will show the world the numbers when it favors Tesla the most. I just wanted to dampen expectations a bit for people who might be betting too aggressively with short term options on spectacular reservations numbers to be revealed very early. Exciting times nonetheless!

 

[uselesslogin]

I'm sure the correct answer for weak action today is oil but I like to think all the normal Tesla bulls are out reserving their Model 3. In any event my strategy is to reserve after the lines die down. By the time I get my car the bugs will be worked out and it still won't be too long of a wait. I will configure immediately so that will put me ahead of people who want a test drive first as well. Though I will be getting extended range but not performance - assuming this is the way the options work.

 

[austinEV]

IMPORTANT: It is not in Tesla's interests as a business to comfirm it's reservation numbers. This is proprietary strategic information. The Australian store staff reportedly confirmed that they won't. There is no reason for them to change this policy which they have progressively strengthened over the years. As soon as they give this datapoint potential competitors in China for example can work up a quantifiable investment case and US obstructionists can build a quantifiable case for an anti-Tesla lobbying and without it they are left to guess in the dark not knowing something that Tesla knows while the doubters and deniers help suppress competitive and obstructionist resolve on Tesla's behalf.

Best not to build hopes on a datapoint reveal for a short-term stock pump. That is not how they roll.

The first time Tesla uses this information will be in trade for massive material gain FOR THE BUSINESS - i.e. Incorporated in the prospectus for a massive minimally dilutive and ridiculously low-interest bond sale, NOT to help speculators to cash out of short term calls. The most likely timing for this IMO remains around the Q2 ER where the reservation account total becomes public information unless they apply to the SEC for confidentiality - which I think is unlikely. This is also the timing when the longer term reservation trends for M3 will be solidified in data and coincident with when Tesla has stated it will start the big push for pre-production capacity ramp CapEx. Anything prior to that would be opportunistic but suboptimal from a strategic perspective and this management team is way smart enough to know it.

Yes. We like to play the speculation game (I am GUILTY) but what we get will be the most boring end of the distribution of theories. Because the reservations were in-person only today, there is an incentive to NOT give reservation numbers because it won't be the impressive version. No point in bragging about 30k when it will be 10x that in a week or whatever you want to speculate. I think we all agree that online reservations will be an order of magnitude more than in person reservations. The in-person thing was 100% to create line photo ops, zero other reason to do it, and its the worst thing to do if you wanted to create an impressive first-24-hour number. So, we won't hear a number.

I predict a short and sweet presentation. It will be about the styling. He will talk about how this fits into the big picture. Think of the powerwall presentation; it was all about the impact of the tech. He will talk about master plan perspective stuff and offsetting oil. He will talk about putting A/P available cars in the hands of the masses. He will talk up safety. I suspect it will have the big air filter feature (available). He will talk about advanced tech it will have but say he will save that for later and be coy. Then gawkers and test drives. And we will declare it awesome and more than sufficient (because it is).

 

[Jonathan Hewitt]

google spreadsheet of the number of people in line at each location
Model 3 Line Update Spreadsheet

While the average is much lower I am very surprised that some of the stores have several hundred waiting...

 

[lango]

While the average is much lower I am very surprised that some of the stores have several hundred waiting...

It looks like the average is about 100? Or maybe there are some small stores that don't have any reports yet but so far almost all of the reported ones could be estimated to at least 70 during the whole day.

 

[jhm]

Stopped by Decatur, GA store, 120 in lines as of about 9:30 am.

One reservationist told me that as a US Customs officer he has seen a lot of people entering the country to go to work for Tesla. They say that the Model 3 is big, but there is something much bigger that has led to their recruitment. So this reservationist is very curious to learn what Part 2 will be. His expectation is that it will be truly mind blowing.

 

[lango]

The first line you used.

Lango said: "It is possible Model 3 won't do much for the stock but as a long term fundamental investor you don't know when the push upwards will happen and when the market will start "to get it"."​

Don't know how the stock will move of course, except in the general direction of up, and very much so, and in 30days.

My confidence to bet so, is in the fact that all TM has to do to multiply reservation numbers by 10 (WAG) is to put a cut-off date for reserving the Performance version of the M3. I will quote myself here from the OP of another thread I started so you will better understand how I think:

I said: "Fortuitously, the reservation deposit is completely independent of configuration, Performance or otherwise, so potential reservers all over the world will say to themselves..."Well, I don't want the performance version because of the expense, but hey that's a neat EPS feature, and it costs nothing more to get in line for, and of course I can always cancel and walk away from the whole thing, so I have nothing to lose and everything to gain by going online right away to reserve before the cut off.""​

(BTW if you want the context, the thread title starts: "Will the missing 10kwh....)

I think the posters in this forum are underestimating the probability that this very powerful card will be played tonight...

There is a problem..."the longer the line the less I want to join it".

A cut-off date is the tool to overcome this problem. I sense that most who post here don't see it.

It is very clear to me. With this simple cut-off tool, TM will suck the life out of the previously assumed revenue streams that the automotive industry expects to receive, not just a couple of years ahead, but maybe six years or more ahead! It will be obvious to everyone within 30 days.

If Musk plays it, the consequence are simply mind-boggling (not even commented about in this forum). Julian comes closest IMHO, but he looks conservative to me.

Musk does nothing by half-measure, he likes superlatives, has the automotive world in the palm of his hand if the M3 has any 'wow' about it, and will play his hand to the fullest.

I STRESS: THIS IS MY OPINION. I AM OFTEN WRONG! I AM NEVER 100% CERTAIN (like some who post here)

I think Musk will close off M3 Performance variant Reservations with a deadline on a day between April 20 and April 30, and if the market conditions are right, raise capital roughly equal to the sum of deposits, and then go into Q1 ER with unbelievable capital and deposits and colour in the road map ahead for the rest of 2016 turning over past projections...(we've been going along in first gear but its like accelerating downhill (less resistance to picking up speed) in third from here on).

I am fully positioned for a run up, but I think it is very hard to say when it will happen in 2016. But there is way too many positives coming and bear stories being proven false for it not to happen in 2016. Macro can change this though..

A cut-off for the performance model would be nothing but a dick-move. You would say no sales of those very high gross margin cars. too and for what reason? Almost not worth commenting on.

 

[Dennadyne]

While the average is much lower I am very surprised that some of the stores have several hundred waiting...

Over 200 in Minnesota now and growing. Wrapped around the building and onto the street sidewalk now.

 

[austinEV]

I am fully positioned for a run up, but I think it is very hard to say when it will happen in 2016. But there is way too many positives coming and bear stories being proven false for it not to happen in 2016. Macro can change this though..

A cut-off for the performance model would be nothing but a dick-move. You would say no sales of those very high gross margin cars. too and for what reason? Almost not worth commenting on.

+1. Not a good theory or strategy.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

While the average is much lower I am very surprised that some of the stores have several hundred waiting...

It looks like the average is about 100? Or maybe there are some small stores that don't have any reports yet but so far almost all of the reported ones could be estimated to at least 70 during the whole day.

My initial impression was that the average was 20-30, but that was based on overnight campers and early bird arrivals. As the morning went on, the average has definitely gone up, and some locations look swamped. It does seem like some stores have a handful of customers, while others are getting a hundred or more.

 

[Crowded Mind]

80 at old orchard mall, near Chicago 30 mins before open

 

[Drax7]

I would expect California store queues to be huge.
At least in the tech community.