ludicrousspeed
Member
i would add phase 2 of the model 3 reveal (although it could be 2H 2017), which per my post here in the "cards close to the chest' thread i'm increasingly convinced will be the announcement that all model 3 cars will have all of the hardware required for fully autonomous driving, as well as the announcement of tesla's shared mobility platform that will be available once regulatory approvals for fully autonomous vehicles are in place. maybe i'm dreaming, but i think it fits with the context of his recent tweets about phase 2.
In my opinion, phase 2 of the Model 3 reveal will be when virtually all the specifics are worked out when the very first Model 3s are delivered. This will follow the pattern of the Model S, whose prototype was unveiled in early 2009 and founders delivered in June 2012, and the Model X, whose prototype was unveiled in February 2012 and Founders delivered in September 2015. My prediction is that Tesla will deliver the first Model 3s (this will be phase 2) during December 2017.
Instead of the typical three year window between reveals, I trust that Tesla will deliver the first vehicles on time due to:
1) The company's focus: The Model 3 has been one of the company's main focus points for years (a ton of R&D in previous years was for the M3), but now its development is the company's main focus. Instead of working on one or two other vehicles, they will be able to concentrate all of their efforts into constructing and perfecting the assembly line for the 3.
2) Simplicity: They've learned their lesson from over-engineering the Model X (just read the delivery press release from yesterday), and have designed the 3 for a much smoother production ramp.
In terms of announcing Tesla's future shared mobility platform, I think that will come later on. I just don't think the public will be ready for an autonomous Uber-like service by the end of next year. Unless you really follow the developments of autonomous driving, which most don't, you will be frightened by such an idea and reluctant to use it. They will announce it once the public is more accustomed to driverless technology and just about all of the legality issues are solved.