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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Not speculation- the literal word of Elon.
Elon Musk said:
he's telling you right there the only thing the upgrade is needed for is FSD.
If the upgrade did anything to improve EAP then his statement would be false.
So either what I'm telling you is a fact, or Elon is lying.
Which do you think it is?
considering all Tesla is able to do right now is hands on lane assist in the simplest of all road situations and we still haven't even reached what was promised for AP1 I seriously neither understand the general optimism nor the trust some people still place in Tesla's software promises.
But hey, I'd be overjoyed to be proven wrong here, I hate driving....
Logic fail - he didn't specify anything about the quality of EAP provided under each. EAP isn't a single feature that does or doesn't work, as is shown by the huge variation in its capabilities between updates. Having EAP work better with AP3 doesn't mean that what Elon said is incorrect.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Huh?
EAP does everything promised when it was announced other than not require confirmation of lane changes, and that's coming shortly.
Except, it does.
EAP is a specific set of defined features.
There is no "EAP if you're running HW X you get this level of safety and EAP if you're running HW Y you get this other level"
Literally everything said about HW3 so far is that it makes no safety difference for EAP at all- nor would it make much sense for it to.
Because if it did- if it in any way made the car safer- Tesla would be obligated to upgrade all the 2.x cars for free. Remember they've publicly stated they won't charge for safety, only added features?
So there's a pretty good business case for Tesla to NOT run a different code base for EAP on HW3- and Elons comments suggest exactly that conclusion on their part.
Instead putting anything "better" than EAP into FSD features.
That doesn't mean EAPs code won't still be refined to work better than today- but it means it won't ever be refined beyond what HW2.x is capable of doing exactly as well as HW3 can.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
I don't know if you have driven Nav On Autopilot or not, but you highly underestimate the current abilities of the system.
Dan
Nope, the last time I tested Tesla AP was in May back in SF where I tried out my friend`s M3. And at least back then it was still a lvl 2 system you couldn`t trust to even always hold its lane.
What I´ve seen of the latest version shows the same AP just that it`s now married to the gps-map.
So for now the best any Tesla AP product can do is still lvl 2 hands-on, still occasionally loses the lane, still doesn`t understand stationary hindrances, still only on highways, still no bidirectional roads, still no crossings, sign-recognition etc. etc. etc.
Basically the best Tesla or anyone else can do at the moment on any mass produced vehicle is still a highway assistant....
Waymo may be ahead here, but considering the hardware they are using it`s FAR away from the mass market.
Yeah, I don`t see anything deserving the name "full self driving" in a regular car anytime soon.
How does anything I wrote relate to EAP? The person I was quoting was talking about FSD, and so am I.
But on another note: AP1 promises from 5 years ago far exceed EAP and are nothing short of what FSD is supposed to turn out to be. 2nd time now they sold vapoware....at least they pulled FSD until they have something to show this time.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Here's what I know from first hand experience...
Last Saturday I had an afternoon to kill so I decided to see what the system could do. I set a destination that would purposely take me into Atlanta traffic and included several highway transitions. Distance of about 70 miles one way. I engaged the system at the top of the ramp at my exit and for the next hour and 15 minutes the car performed all necessary driving responsibilities. The only input I gave was to verify I was still alive by responding to the nags (which really are no big deal. A slight tug on the wheel and you're done. Reasonable expectation on the part of the software.) and to verify suggested lane changes. The car merged into traffic, performed all lane changes both for navigation and speed (I was in Mad Max Mode). There were three highway transitions that included the need for lane changes, speed adjustment and one that was a 270 degree cloverleaf. The car performed all of these flawlessly and safely. I only took over control of the car at the top of the ramp at my destination. Then I turned around and came home...same result. The car surprised me once by abruptly aborting a lane change halfway through when it saw the idiot roaring up in my blind spot in the destination lane. I never would have seen the guy.
Is it full self driving? Of course not. Are there things that need to be smoothed out? Yup. Would I have made different choices if I had been in control? Sometimes, like staying in a lane knowing the transition I needed was just a couple of miles away instead of passing the person in front of me for speed. The car also seemed less confident in heavy traffic which I experienced for part of the drive. But, the car did everything safely.
That certainly doesn't sound like a simple "Lane Keep Assist" program to me. I have seen no reason to believe that FSD can't happen in the next two years or sooner based on the hardware update that is coming in the spring and the system's current capabilities. That is my experience from using the current system. My suggestion is not to base you observations on the performance of past systems or what you may read or see on the internet. Autopilot, as it is right now, is an amazing and an incredible safety and convenience feature. What it will be in another year will be beyond anything the world has seen in regards to true autonomous capability.
Dan
Last Saturday I had an afternoon to kill so I decided to see what the system could do. I set a destination that would purposely take me into Atlanta traffic and included several highway transitions. Distance of about 70 miles one way. I engaged the system at the top of the ramp at my exit and for the next hour and 15 minutes the car performed all necessary driving responsibilities. The only input I gave was to verify I was still alive by responding to the nags (which really are no big deal. A slight tug on the wheel and you're done. Reasonable expectation on the part of the software.) and to verify suggested lane changes. The car merged into traffic, performed all lane changes both for navigation and speed (I was in Mad Max Mode). There were three highway transitions that included the need for lane changes, speed adjustment and one that was a 270 degree cloverleaf. The car performed all of these flawlessly and safely. I only took over control of the car at the top of the ramp at my destination. Then I turned around and came home...same result. The car surprised me once by abruptly aborting a lane change halfway through when it saw the idiot roaring up in my blind spot in the destination lane. I never would have seen the guy.
Is it full self driving? Of course not. Are there things that need to be smoothed out? Yup. Would I have made different choices if I had been in control? Sometimes, like staying in a lane knowing the transition I needed was just a couple of miles away instead of passing the person in front of me for speed. The car also seemed less confident in heavy traffic which I experienced for part of the drive. But, the car did everything safely.
That certainly doesn't sound like a simple "Lane Keep Assist" program to me. I have seen no reason to believe that FSD can't happen in the next two years or sooner based on the hardware update that is coming in the spring and the system's current capabilities. That is my experience from using the current system. My suggestion is not to base you observations on the performance of past systems or what you may read or see on the internet. Autopilot, as it is right now, is an amazing and an incredible safety and convenience feature. What it will be in another year will be beyond anything the world has seen in regards to true autonomous capability.
Dan
JoaoD
Tech Enthusiast
This applies not only for the Model 3 in Europe, but for every Tesla in any part of the world. If you want/need the car now, and you think the price for what Tesla is offering at the moment is fair/worth to you, buy it now! Otherwise you will always end up waiting for the next big thing, because there will always be a better Tesla in the near future, but life does not last forever, enjoy it while it lasts.
Sorry, but you "know" nothing, you just had a good personal experience so far. Making assumptions about the state of the system from anecdotal evidence is a big mistake, one that certain drivers in the past already made.....
For the same reason I would never say the system is absolutely trying to kill you because others already reported about issues with lane jumping on v9.
It´s simply still a flawed system with level 2 hands on requirement for that very reason, because it isn`t safe in all situations.
This absolutely isn`t about the 95% of time when it just works, no matter how impressive that is, it`s about the 5% where it doesn`t and the incredible challenge to reduce the error margin to literally zero in ALL situations, which is what FSD would be.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Curious, since I wasn't around Tesla when the AP1 was released I honestly don't know what was promised. Can you inform me as to what was promised and how they sold "vaporware" as you say? I am up to speed on the break with Mobileye and the setbacks that ensued.
Dan
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
WHOA!!! I beg your pardon?
You have the audacity to preach to me on what I know and don't know when I have first hand experience with the current system and you have nothing but a drive on outdated software that didn't include Nav On Autopilot? How disingenuous can you get?
Facts are, I know what I know and you believe what you believe. Others will hopefully make their own decisions based on first hand current experience and not old out of date hearsay. Lost more than a little credibility with me on that last post sir. Have a nice day.
Dan
Self parking, hands off highway driving, traffic light and general sign recognition, summon from everywhere on your property, "eventually" summon from all over the country aka driverless full level 5 fsd.
Well, at least they only said "eventually" for the most interesting part.......still.
No, I´m just saying that you are mixing up anecdotal evidence with the objective state of a system here.
Others had different experiences in different situations, and just because you personally didn`t happen to experience possibly fatal errors doesn`t mean they don`t exist nor that you can you make general assumptions about the system.
Ever wondered how "save and experienced" the driver who plowed into the lane divider felt?
fact is you have no facts, you have your very own experience, and that is statistically irrelevant, just like the system doesn`t get instantly forbidden for trying to kill its passengers when someone else reports about lane jumping.
When Tesla itself after further millions and millions of miles deems the statistical error margin low enough to up the automation level, then it`s relevant.
If you don`t understand or can`t accept the difference between your anecdotal evidence and actual systemic facts ...well......
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
...and what is the state of the system? What are you basing it off of? You are basing your statements on outdated systems and data. I am basing my observations on actual usage. Of course others may have different experiences. I can only provide personal observed behavior. You on the other hand can only provide opinion. Which is more relevant?
Dan
You STILL don`t get the difference between systemic facts and anecdotal evidence/opinions.
I don´t have an "opinion" on the current state, I´m simply stating the facts, and those are from Tesla itself, who are the only ones with actual data to base their satetements on:
- Level 2
- Hands on
- Highway only
it`s not really difficult to understand...or so I thought.
the only "opinion" is have concerning AP is merely a guess as to how long it might take to go from that official state of the system to something that might deserve the name FSD.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Of course its hands on and highway only. Everyone understands that. At least everyone that is using the system properly. I never claimed that the system is full self driving yet. The only one that seems to be trying to put it there is you...and then condemning it for not being what it is not intended to be. I am looking at the system as what it has to offer now...at this stage in its development. You are trying to make it into something it is not...yet.
Dan
You have absolutely lost me here.
We were talking about how long FSD might take and I stated that I don´t believe in it in the near future based on the current state of the system as the jump from level 2 to level 3 is already gigantic and for FSD we`re talking about level 4-5.
And then you came with your personal experience for whatever reason...
which as I stated doesn`t matter as long as Tesla doesn`t officially up their automation level and now we are here.
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Dan Detweiler
Active Member
You need to read your own posts.
...and I quote...
"considering all Tesla is able to do right now is hands on lane assist in the simplest of all road situations and we still haven't even reached what was promised for AP1 I seriously neither understand the general optimism nor the trust some people still place in Tesla's software promises."
By stating that the current system is only a hands on lane assist in the simplest of all road situations you state that you believe the system is far less capable than my experience supports. That is what I was replying to. Not my experience in any way shape or form.
Dan
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