Should I buy AP 2.0, 2.5 or wait for 3.0?

[SnowFlyer]

Our S 100 D has absolutely turned our world upside down and I never expected it to be this life-changing."


"We just returned from our first real family road trip from PA to VT and back, and Autopilot (2.0) was blissful. I feel so bad for the folks who have been having crappy experiences and poor performance and truly believe something is wrong with their cars. It never tried to kill us, it didn't run us off the road, it didn't slam on the brakes inexplicably, it didn't summon Satan or try to divide by zero. It's also not FSD and it's not going to make you toast in the morning, but it is an amazing driver aid, especially on long highway trips, and it completely transformed a trip we've been making multiple times per year over the last decade+

I fully expect AP2 to improve over the coming months and years knowing full well that AP3 or whatever may ultimately be called will "do it better," but we're very happy with the car we have right now. As folks with AP1 can attest, you can keep looking over the horizon at the next big thing, all the while they've been enjoying AP1 for thousands and thousands of miles.

Yeah I sounds like we have a lot in common with regard to outdoor sports and cars. I've got 150k miles on my Subaru WRX and still enjoy it every time I drive the car. It's a really well thought out machine. Has just enough nice features and quality but without all the luxury fluff that I'd rather do without, like power seats, leather, etc. After I'd had the WRX for 10 years friends and family would routinely ask, "when are you going to get a new car." B concerned about climate change and knowing that EV's were rapidly improving, my answer was, "when someone comes out with a good long range EV." Now we have Tesla and I'm stoked at the idea that I can run my car mostly on renewables and still have a fast, nice handling machine.

I was hoping to get a Model 3 this year, but don't want to wait till the end of 2018 (which is my estimated delivery date). Then I realized how much better the MS is in terms of cargo capacity and access for bulky items like bikes, skis, etc. with the hatchback. I realized that a CPO MS90D could be had for slightly more than a loaded M3 so started looking for and found a sweet low mileage CPO MS90D for about $10k more than a loaded M3, but after playing with range calculators and factoring in the cold temps, snowy roads. a little battery degredation and preferred routes, I realized that it probably would not work well for many of my planned trips.

After my 24 hour test drive of a MS100D I was sold in regard to performance, quality, comfort and the AP performance on the highway. I was surprised how much it reduced my workload. The MS is a great car and should make a fine replacement for my WRX.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

Tesla statement:

“The internal name HW 2.5 is an overstatement, and instead it should be called something more like HW 2.1. This hardware set has some added computing and wiring redundancy, which very slightly improves reliability, but it does not have an additional Pascal GPU.”

The difference is "slightly" so I wouldn't wait for it!

I find it hilarious that Tesla is dismissing its own naming convention as an "overstatement". I suspect the naming convention is accurate, it's the Sales/PR people that are downplaying to perform damage control.

@SnowFlyer I would suggest waiting until at least the end of the year, if possible. Change is in the winds and I think we are going to see a Model S/X restyling in the next six months. A 2017 styling refresh code for Model X was recently spotted by Redditors when taking apart the Android Tesla app. There's lots of talk about S/X being a poor value compared to Model 3. I think Tesla is going to announcing more than just a semi truck in October.

 

[Electricfan]

Got to say, if you buy today go for an older car with AP1. At least it helps on long trips. And you'll save some money. If you can wait, wait a year or more if AP is important to you. I expect it to be at least a year before we see significant improvement for AP2(.5) vs AP1.

I'm curious, what is the range difference that causes the 90D to not work? How many miles is it short? If there is just one hop between superchargers that is too long, you can slow down on that hop. Driving slowly extends range greatly.

 

[SnowFlyer]

I find it hilarious that Tesla is dismissing its own naming convention as an "overstatement". I suspect the naming convention is accurate, it's the Sales/PR people that are downplaying to perform damage control.

@SnowFlyer I would suggest waiting until at least the end of the year, if possible. Change is in the winds and I think we are going to see a Model S/X restyling in the next six months. A 2017 styling refresh code for Model X was recently spotted by Redditors when taking apart the Android Tesla app. There's lots of talk about S/X being a poor value compared to Model 3. I think Tesla is going to announcing more than just a semi truck in October.

@AmpedRealtor I agree.

In regard to AP 2.5 beingTesla has a history of slight over/understatements to appease owners and potential buyers.

I'm keeping my fingers crossed that the October announcement will be something worth waiting for.

 

[SnowFlyer]

Got to say, if you buy today go for an older car with AP1. At least it helps on long trips. And you'll save some money. If you can wait, wait a year or more if AP is important to you. I expect it to be at least a year before we see significant improvement for AP2(.5) vs AP1.

I'm curious, what is the range difference that causes the 90D to not work? How many miles is it short? If there is just one hop between superchargers that is too long, you can slow down on that hop. Driving slowly extends range greatly.

@Electricfan I'd prefer to go with the MS 90D as I'd be okay with the trade off of saving $20k and living with AP 1 for a year or two. As not to get too off topic I'll start another thread about the trip I'm wanting to do from Flagstaff, AZ to Telluride, CO with maps and range calculations from EVTripping.com MS 90D Flagstaff to Telluride Winter Range Concerns

 

[SnowFlyer]

Hi. For how long do you plan to keep the Tesla? What is your yearly mileage? Why not a Model 3 80D or P80D? Those have more range than the Model S 90D or P90D.

AP2.5 has liquid cooling, an additional graphics card, a new radar and some additional wiring for redundancy. Tesla made 73,000 AP2.0 cars. They don't make them anymore. They will have 170,000 AP2.5 cars in just 6 months from now. You should definitely not buy AP2.0.

@Troy If I buy new, then I want to keep 10 years. If I buy CPO then I'm okay trading up in a few years if I decide it's necessary.

I'll probably drive it 12k-15k per year, depending on how much I like road trips in it.

 

[Saghost]

@Troy If I buy new, then I want to keep 10 years. If I buy CPO then I'm okay trading up in a few years if I decide it's necessary.

I'll probably drive it 12k-15k per year, depending on how much I like road trips in it.

Okay. If that's the way you're thinking, then the CPO 90D with AP1 sounds like a great choice for you. It's a stable, reliable Autopilot for freeways (and country roads) in a car that will be great fun to drive, less expensive - and in a few years the cars will likely be much more capable and possibly less expensive, with mature FSD sensor sets (whatever that turns out to be,) and likely new interiors with a bunch more features.

 

[futurem3owner]

Didn't Elon say that since AP2 cars already come with hardware to allow FSD, even if future iterations of upgraded AP have more graphical horsepower or more radar sensors, you will be automatically upgraded from AP2 for free in the unlikely event that FSD ends up requiring those additional capabilities? So, while buying Model S with either AP2 or AP2.5 now is reasonable, waiting for AP3 seems unnecessary since you're risking not getting unlimited supercharging or federal tax rebate.

 

[SnowFlyer]

Didn't Elon say that since AP2 cars already come with hardware to allow FSD, even if future iterations of upgraded AP have more graphical horsepower or more radar sensors, you will be automatically upgraded from AP2 for free in the unlikely event that FSD ends up requiring those additional capabilities? So, while buying Model S with either AP2 or AP2.5 now is reasonable, waiting for AP3 seems unnecessary since you're risking not getting unlimited supercharging or federal tab rebate.

@futurem3owner I would like to believe that AP2 or 2.5 could do FSD and if the hardware wasn't sufficient then Tesla would upgrade all of these owners no matter the cost. I am just a consumer and a long way from being knowledgable in these systems or the requirements, but there are many on these forums who seem to doubt this FSD possibility with AP 2.0/2.5 anytime in the near future if ever.

I've read and tend to think, being more knowledgable in business than autonomous driving, that if FSD with AP 2 or 2.5 becomes too cost prohibitive for Tesla they may be able to claim that it was not possible after all and might have a case due to the following disclaimer on their website. I'm not saying this is probable, but I would say it is a possibility to consider before any of us shell out hard earned cash for a car with 2, 2.5, or paying for FSD. If you're okay with the current AP functionality and the current price even if FSD never becomes a reality for your car, then it's a non issue.

 

[Saghost]

Didn't Elon say that since AP2 cars already come with hardware to allow FSD, even if future iterations of upgraded AP have more graphical horsepower or more radar sensors, you will be automatically upgraded from AP2 for free in the unlikely event that FSD ends up requiring those additional capabilities? So, while buying Model S with either AP2 or AP2.5 now is reasonable, waiting for AP3 seems unnecessary since you're risking not getting unlimited supercharging or federal tax rebate.

He most certainly did.

A number of folks in the forum don't seem to believe him, and correctly point out that the other attempts at self driving cars ask have a lot more sensors (though humans seem to manage the task with less.)

Regardless, being able to drive itself doesn't mean later cars won't be able to do a better job - more conditions, more safely, mire quickly.

It's certainly a plateau in capability/usefulness (assuming Tesla does make it work,) but not the end all solution.

 

[RDoc]

Didn't Elon say that since AP2 cars already come with hardware to allow FSD, even if future iterations of upgraded AP have more graphical horsepower or more radar sensors, you will be automatically upgraded from AP2 for free in the unlikely event that FSD ends up requiring those additional capabilities? So, while buying Model S with either AP2 or AP2.5 now is reasonable, waiting for AP3 seems unnecessary since you're risking not getting unlimited supercharging or federal tax rebate.

Have you ever considered investing in bridges? I happen to be the executor of the former owner of a major bridge in one of the largest metropolitan areas in the USA and am looking for a partner ......

 

[Reeler]

With Tesla going away from Nvidia for some chips maybe they will go back to Mobile Eye to get their AP working. Wait for AP3.0 as the failed Tesla AP2.X will be orphaned.

 

[Troy]

@Troy If I buy new, then I want to keep 10 years. If I buy CPO then I'm okay trading up in a few years if I decide it's necessary. I'll probably drive it 12k-15k per year, depending on how much I like road trips in it.

Hi. If we assume 14,000 miles/year, that's 140,000 miles in 10 years. Based on survey data, you will have 92.5% battery capacity left at the end of 10 years. Check out this graph for details. Because you are considering the non-performance dual motor version, it means you have 3 options: Model S 90D, Model S 100D, Model 3 80D. Here is a table that shows the real-world range numbers of these cars.

The orange cells show the range when the car is new and the purple cells after 7.5% degradation. For example, at the end of your 10 year ownership period, if you have a Model S 90D, you will have 245.7 miles range at 65 mph and a 30 minute supercharge session will add 135.1 miles range.

The orange and purple cells are calculated from EPA highway dyno test scores (shown in blue) and adjusted until the Model S 75D has 235 miles range at 65 mph which is what the Consumer Reports test here shows. The Model S 75D is actually a good example to explain how these things work. The car has 235 miles range at 65 mph according to Consumer Reports but the EPA rated range is 259 mi which is a little optimistic. Tesla is aware of this issue and they have created a more realistic range unit called Typical range that they use everywhere else outside of North America. For example, the Model S 75D displays 241 miles Typical range in the UK.

The reason the Model 3 80D has more range than the Model S 100D is that the Model 3 80 (without the D) has the same EPA highway dyno test score as the Model S 100D. Therefore the Model 3 80D will have more range. The data source for Model S Supercharge percentages is this video.

Because you said you have a Model 3 reservation, this implies, the Model 3 could work for you. Therefore I would not buy a new Model S before you can rule out the Model 3. Yes, the Model 3 will be delayed but you could buy a used Model S 90D and then decide if you want to switch to a Model 3 80D or keep the S90D.

Also, the 10 years ownership idea might not be the best idea considering that EV technology and self-driving technology changes so fast and the Model Y might be more suited for you. Chances are, 5 years from now, the range, Supercharge speeds, and self-driving technology will improve a lot. Tesla will have the Model Y, 2-3 years from now. Instead of a new Model S 100D with AP for $99K, you could buy a new Model 3 80D with AP and Smart Air Suspension for $55K, keep it for 5 years, sell it for $27K and then switch to a new Model Y 90D for $55K. In this second scenario, you would spend 55-27+55= $83K.

Model S 100D + EAP = $94K + $5K = $99K
Model 3 80D + EPA + SAS= $44K for the long range version + $4K (estimate) for dual motors +$2K (estimate) for Smart Air Suspension + $5K for EAP= $55K

 

[SnowFlyer]

Hi. If we assume 14,000 miles/year, that's 140,000 miles in 10 years. Based on survey data, you will have 92.5% battery capacity left at the end of 10 years. Check out this graph for details. Because you are considering the non-performance dual motor version, it means you have 3 options: Model S 90D, Model S 100D, Model 3 80D. Here is a table that shows the real-world range numbers of these cars.

The orange cells show the range when the car is new and the purple cells after 7.5% degradation. For example, at the end of your 10 year ownership period, if you have a Model S 90D, you will have 245.7 miles range at 65 mph and a 30 minute supercharge session will add 135.1 miles range.

The orange and purple cells are calculated from EPA highway dyno test scores (shown in blue) and adjusted until the Model S 75D has 235 miles range at 65 mph which is what the Consumer Reports test here shows. The Model S 75D is actually a good example to explain how these things work. The car has 235 miles range at 65 mph according to Consumer Reports but the EPA rated range is 259 mi which is a little optimistic. Tesla is aware of this issue and they have created a more realistic range unit called Typical range that they use everywhere else outside of North America. For example, the Model S 75D displays 241 miles Typical range in the UK.

The reason the Model 3 80D has more range than the Model S 100D is that the Model 3 80 (without the D) has the same EPA highway dyno test score as the Model S 100D. Therefore the Model 3 80D will have more range. The data source for Model S Supercharge percentages is this video.

Because you said you have a Model 3 reservation, this implies, the Model 3 could work for you. Therefore I would not buy a new Model S before you can rule out the Model 3. Yes, the Model 3 will be delayed but you could buy a used Model S 90D and then decide if you want to switch to a Model 3 80D or keep the S90D.

Also, the 10 years ownership idea might not be the best idea considering that EV technology and self-driving technology changes so fast and the Model Y might be more suited for you. Chances are, 5 years from now, the range, Supercharge speeds, and self-driving technology will improve a lot. Tesla will have the Model Y, 2-3 years from now. Instead of a new Model S 100D with AP for $99K, you could buy a new Model 3 80D with AP and Smart Air Suspension for $55K, keep it for 5 years, sell it for $27K and then switch to a new Model Y 90D for $55K. In this second scenario, you would spend 55-27+55= $83K.

Model S 100D + EAP = $94K + $5K = $99K
Model 3 80D + EPA + SAS= $44K for the long range version + $4K (estimate) for dual motors +$2K (estimate) for Smart Air Suspension + $5K for EAP= $55K

@Troy Thanks for the detailed analysis. The mileage ratings are useful, although I understand temperature, wind, snow and elevation change seem to also greatly effect range. A long trip I want to make frequently will have all of these other factors effecting range. Considering those factors, do think the leg from Gallup to Telluride is practical in a 90D in the coldest part of winter, non-stop? If not then the 90D probably won't work for me.
MS 90D Flagstaff to Telluride Winter Range Concerns

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I am going out on a limb here, but what if Tesla is looking to switch back to Mobileye? I have nothing to substantiate this speculation, but the recent announcements that Tesla is moving its MCU part from Nvidia to Intel may be revealing. Since the breakup, Mobileye has been acquired by Intel. Is it crazy to think that Tesla may have secretly inked a deal with Intel to bring Mobileye technology back to Tesla, with one condition of that deal being that Tesla move its other parts to Intel as well?

Perhaps Musk is finding it easier to negotiate with today's Intel than with yesterday's Mobileye?

 

[Troy]

Hi, @SnowFlyer. I don't know the answer. If you don't get an answer in the thread you started, you could try your luck in this subforum:
Mountain/Southwest

It's a shame there are no chademo chargers on that route. You can see the chademo map here but usually, people use the plugshare.com website because it shows both the superchargers and the chademo chargers. On the top right leave "High Power Stations" checked and uncheck the other 3 options.

What I can tell about the 90 kWh battery pack is that it should have been called the 85 kWh pack because it has 85.8 kWh total capacity of which 81.8 kWh is usable. However, the 85 kWh name was already taken. The pack that is called 85 kWh, should have been called the 80 kWh. In 2012, when Tesla released the 40, 60 and 85 kWh packs they wanted more people to pick the largest battery so they advertised the pack capacity as 85 kWh instead of 80. You can see the pack sizes here and here (for the 100 kWh).

The 100 kWh pack has 102.4 kWh total and 98.4 kWh usable capacity. You are getting 16.6 kWh more capacity in a 100 kWh pack compared to a 90 kWh. By the way, the Model 3 80 has 80.5 kWh total and 78.3 kWh usable capacity which is more than the 85 kWh Model S pack. However, Tesla doesn't call it the Model 3 80 because they are afraid it might put off potential buyers from buying the Model S 75/75D. Of course, the Model 3 is more efficient.

 

[SnowFlyer]

@Troy thanks for the info, it's much appreciated! This is a remote area of the US so I'm not too surprised it's lacking EV resources. In the next year Tesla should have the Kayenta SC up and running and a 90D would be likely sufficient in most scenarios. This winter SC's are lacking here for a 90D but I want to be driving an EV on these trips so I think it'll probably have to be the 100D. I doubt I'll ever be unhappy that I bought too much extra range when it's dumping snow and I'm in the out in the middle of nowhere, hours away from the next charge.

The biggest consideration now brings me back to the title of this thread. Lots of opinions on the future of the various AP's, but no one has a crystal ball. I'll probably hedge my bet and make a decision toward the end of the year. Tax and Tesla incentives will still be available and we should know more about future Tesla offerings and capabilities.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

@Troy thanks for the info, it's much appreciated! This is a remote area of the US so I'm not too surprised it's lacking EV resources. In the next year Tesla should have the Kayenta SC up and running and a 90D would be likely sufficient in most scenarios. This winter SC's are lacking here for a 90D but I want to be driving an EV on these trips so I think it'll probably have to be the 100D. I doubt I'll ever be unhappy that I bought too much extra range when it's dumping snow and I'm in the out in the middle of nowhere, hours away from the next charge.

The biggest consideration now brings me back to the title of this thread. Lots of opinions on the future of the various AP's, but no one has a crystal ball. I'll probably hedge my bet and make a decision toward the end of the year. Tax and Tesla incentives will still be available and we should know more about future Tesla offerings and capabilities.

Just take note of today’s change to the referral/reward setup that seems to indicate “you” (one) need to order by 10/31 to get the $1000 discount, though unlimited free supercharging is good til ??? (Later?) in the year.

 

[boaterva]

Just take note of today’s change to the referral/reward setup that seems to indicate “you” (one) need to order by 10/31 to get the $1000 discount, though unlimited free supercharging is good til ??? (Later?) in the year.

And as usual that may change again, but all we know now is what we know now.

Some suspicion this might be temporary to counteract a drop in price for the 75D, but who knows. It would be weird if the referral program was now permanently missing an immediate benefit like a discount. For people that don’t travel long distances, there’s no incentive (not that there’s a cost to using it, either!).

There’s nothing so temporary as a referral program change, it seems (over the last year or so!).

 

[u00mem9]

I wouldn’t count on anything related to a 2.0/2.5 upgrade to full self driving.

At this point, I think there is a good chance Tesla will stick with its current strategy for camera based in-house autonomous systems while they focus max resources on getting Model 3 into full production.

By the time they are finished with the M3 effort, it could be Mid-2019...and I think the landscape could be very different for autonomous vehicles. As soon as one OEM can supply level 4, that will be the only accepted bar both in the market and by regulators. I’d be shocked if Tesla was that company. What they have in guts isn’t enough to compensate for what they lack in direction and leadership. In 2020, if you want to go buy a car that drives itself, I don’t think Tesla will be one of your options. That assumes the current strategy, and I agree if they are talking to intel about chips it’s probably a nice possibility to save face while returning to Mobileye technology. They can pretend to be involved in the ‘hardware’. They did a similar thing with batteries where they eventually admitted defeat and changed the strategy back to having Panasonic continue to make the cells while doing that manufacturing inside a Tesla pole barn (gigafactory) to make them seem more involved.