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Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers
- Thread starter bdy0627
- Start date
ZachShahan
Active Member
That's 490 off of 7000/wk.
Which means 70/day off of 7000/wk, which we can presume is 5000 TM3/wk.
Any idea what's needed to get those remaining 70/day produced?
Know anything about supposed paint shop limits?
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Tuesday's production needed 74 more M3's per day to be at 5k/wk rate. Given that each day has increased over the previous in the last few days, it may just be that it takes a few days to get the line back up to speed and running smoothly. We might see 5000/wk M3 rate today (25th) or tomorrow (26th). Hopefully they can exceed that rate going into the conference call to counter what will likely be poor (but expected) Q2 numbers.
ZachShahan
Active Member
Yes, I figure if they improved capability they need to slowly ramp up from day to day to make sure things are working well and slowly speed things up. Just curious if anyone has any sense of what is going on beyond such daily numbers. Whether new machinery might have been installed that allows 7000/week easily, 8000/week easily, etc. Whether there is a known or suspected bottleneck anywhere.
Only specific potential bottleneck I've heard about is the paint shop.
Since Tesla already demonstrated 4 days of 700+ M3/day production in a row, recently, I think that Sunday and Monday involved some line tweaking and as Todd said, Tuesday was likely a spinning the lines back up day. Also, there's the issue of dual-motor vs. RWD and some of the slippage of production is likely to be related to the transition to the performance version dual motor. I trust they have a handle on it and we'll see 700+ per day soon.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
Is anyone else with access to the factory numbers able to post them here without burning their source? Relying on an ultra-bear isn’t the best idea, even if his numbers have been legit so far.
Back to 1,000 total cars per day. Nice!
skabooshka @skabooshka
Daily production update.
On July 25, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 680
Model S: 150
Model X: 170
skabooshka @skabooshka
Daily production update.
On July 25, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 680
Model S: 150
Model X: 170
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
Elon has mentioned that obsessing over daily, weekly, monthly or quarterly production has little to do with the long term viability of the company and only serves to increase drama.
Also says that production ramp ups are hard and they are getting much better at determining and fixing choke points in production.
Whlle people and media are fixated on 5,000 per month, Tesla is already focused on ramping profitably to 10,000 in Fremont and adding additional production facilites all around the world.
Think they believe that the Model Y will be even more popular than the current Model 3.
In addition, the Ford F150 is the most popular vehicle in the US. Believe Tesla also has plans to take a chunk of that market as well.
Also says that production ramp ups are hard and they are getting much better at determining and fixing choke points in production.
Whlle people and media are fixated on 5,000 per month, Tesla is already focused on ramping profitably to 10,000 in Fremont and adding additional production facilites all around the world.
Think they believe that the Model Y will be even more popular than the current Model 3.
In addition, the Ford F150 is the most popular vehicle in the US. Believe Tesla also has plans to take a chunk of that market as well.
I bet they are going for a new record 7 day tally to give some positive PR on the Q2 earnings call which I expect will be pretty bad given the delivery delays because of 200k US deliveries and that they will roll in the layoff costs and anything else that can be pulled forward to a loss now that will make Q3 easier to show a profit. This is the kitchen sink quarter.
If they maintain this rate until the day before earnings they can claim they hit 7600 cars in 7 days, with 5360 Model 3 and 2240 S & X.
Assuming:
1. 95k S&X ASP
2. 55k M3 ASP
Thats: $507,600,000 in revenue per weak. (If they could deliver them this fast)
That' really puts into perspective the $8000 per minute operating cost bloomberg quoted in their Tesla cash burn article: That would add up to $80,640,000 per week in operating costs.
If they maintain this, or even increase it, leading up to the ER, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts. Sustaining this level is really HUGE for Tesla.
That is especially true if they are managing this level of production without the heroic measures of getting everyone working on the line.
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Next number to look for is 857 M3/day, which equates to 6k/WK. If we hit this number prior to Q2 ER, Elon is going to have some very good news to share in the CC. Ladies and gentlemen, Tesla has already reached production numbers where it is both profitable and cash-flow positive going forward (if 5k-6k/wk is sustainable).
The natural cadence for raising production numbers is to take two steps forward, one step back, and then three steps forward. Rinse and repeat. The low numbers we saw on Sunday and Monday is a natural part of the process of tweaking the line, then bringing it up to higher numbers than ever before. The good news is that guidance for 7K/wk isn't until end of year, so Tesla can just settle in at 6K/wk for the next few months if it likes and create Model 3s without substantial tweaking. Elon is going to get his 3Q profitability if there are no big surprises.
The natural cadence for raising production numbers is to take two steps forward, one step back, and then three steps forward. Rinse and repeat. The low numbers we saw on Sunday and Monday is a natural part of the process of tweaking the line, then bringing it up to higher numbers than ever before. The good news is that guidance for 7K/wk isn't until end of year, so Tesla can just settle in at 6K/wk for the next few months if it likes and create Model 3s without substantial tweaking. Elon is going to get his 3Q profitability if there are no big surprises.
Esme Es Mejor
Member
12,663 Model 3s so far in July.
487/day
44,320 per quarter
Factoring out first 5 days:
577/day
52,498 per quarter
487/day
44,320 per quarter
Factoring out first 5 days:
577/day
52,498 per quarter
Esme Es Mejor
Member
S/X production looking good, too. On pace for 26,700+ for the quarter.
Of course all of this is based on production reporting by a bear, so until we get real confirmation from somewhere reliable I don't 100% believe it.
FYI I have seen at least 3rd hand confirmation, augkuo who posts the pictures of the Fremont lot implied that skabooshka's numbers match the daily email.
780 Model 3 per day becomes 5460/week. Now, I suspect this has revealed further slow points, but it means those slow points *aren't in final assembly*, and probably not in paint or body either (since there's little or no room to stage between body and paint, or between paint and final assembly). Expect this to drop back a bit while they iron out bottlenecks between the arrival of 6000/week parts from suppliers and the 5460/week in final assembly, and watch for the next push up to 6000/week (857/day) burst rate.
Due to delivery constraints, we may see the 857/day burst rate well before we actually see 6000 delivered per week.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
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