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Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers
- Thread starter bdy0627
- Start date
jhm
Well-Known Member
Seven days ending 7/29
Model 3 4430
Model S 980
Model X 1020
Total 6430
This is up 400 since the day before. I wonder if Skabooboo will chicken out as the average rises to new highs.
Looking back over this month, highest 7-day run ended 7/16 at 7010 total (4790 Model 3). So Tesla is proving that 7k ending week of June was not a fluke. They returned to the level just 2 weeks later and now seem to be headed back to it at the end of July.
Of course, Musk was saying that they would try to reach 6k Model 3 by end of July. For that last week, Tesla already has 3310 Model 3. I needs 2690 in the last two days. That would be 1345 yesterday and today. The max daily Model 3 production has been 856. So Tesla really needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat to hit this. So I'm not expecting this to happen. I think just affirming that they can hit 5k Model 3 for a third time is a good demonstration of capability. Also it would be great if they could hit over 857 = 6000/7 for a day just to show that a 6k/wk burst rate is possible.
So I'm expecting short whine about how "Elon promised" 6k by the end of July. Also average weekly production for the month is just 3500 Model 3. The whole month of July should end with more than 24k total vehicles produced. Just a year ago, Q3 2017 it took a whole quarter to make 26k cars. So Tesla well on its way to 200% production increase year over year. Despite Elon prodding for more, faster, sooner, tripling production in a year is damn impressive. So mock on, shorts.
Also I remember when shorts used to ridicule Tesla for weak "sequential" growth, despite impressive year over year growth. Ok so, Q2 is at 40,740 deliveries, while Q1 was at 29,980. That's 35.9% sequential growth. Put that in your baby bottle and suck on it.
So how long will Babooska want to keep publishing Tesla's ascent? It's a childish critique, "But Elon promised!" The reality is Tesla is going through an explosive growth phase.
Model 3 4430
Model S 980
Model X 1020
Total 6430
This is up 400 since the day before. I wonder if Skabooboo will chicken out as the average rises to new highs.
Looking back over this month, highest 7-day run ended 7/16 at 7010 total (4790 Model 3). So Tesla is proving that 7k ending week of June was not a fluke. They returned to the level just 2 weeks later and now seem to be headed back to it at the end of July.
Of course, Musk was saying that they would try to reach 6k Model 3 by end of July. For that last week, Tesla already has 3310 Model 3. I needs 2690 in the last two days. That would be 1345 yesterday and today. The max daily Model 3 production has been 856. So Tesla really needs to pull a rabbit out of the hat to hit this. So I'm not expecting this to happen. I think just affirming that they can hit 5k Model 3 for a third time is a good demonstration of capability. Also it would be great if they could hit over 857 = 6000/7 for a day just to show that a 6k/wk burst rate is possible.
So I'm expecting short whine about how "Elon promised" 6k by the end of July. Also average weekly production for the month is just 3500 Model 3. The whole month of July should end with more than 24k total vehicles produced. Just a year ago, Q3 2017 it took a whole quarter to make 26k cars. So Tesla well on its way to 200% production increase year over year. Despite Elon prodding for more, faster, sooner, tripling production in a year is damn impressive. So mock on, shorts.
Also I remember when shorts used to ridicule Tesla for weak "sequential" growth, despite impressive year over year growth. Ok so, Q2 is at 40,740 deliveries, while Q1 was at 29,980. That's 35.9% sequential growth. Put that in your baby bottle and suck on it.
So how long will Babooska want to keep publishing Tesla's ascent? It's a childish critique, "But Elon promised!" The reality is Tesla is going through an explosive growth phase.
There is some debate about the accuracy of these numbers, particularly since Skaboosh is a very vocal short. There is no way to know for sure, but keep in mind that his numbers for the last week in June were accurate. The other data point was confirmation of at least one particular day by a TMC member. I believe he is reporting these virtually unaltered from his source (other than rounding), to try to assist the shorts with where Tesla is really at in terms of production. At any rate, July is showing a very nice ramp up towards sustaining 1,000 total vehicles per day:
Daily AVG since JULY 5
Model 3 568
Model S 138
Model X 148
Total 855
Daily AVG since July 15
Model 3 587
Model S 138
Model X 153
Total 879
Daily AVG since July 24
Model 3 659
Model S 148
Model X 150
Total 957
Daily AVG since JULY 5
Model 3 568
Model S 138
Model X 148
Total 855
Daily AVG since July 15
Model 3 587
Model S 138
Model X 153
Total 879
Daily AVG since July 24
Model 3 659
Model S 148
Model X 150
Total 957
Looks like they're still having some trouble sustaining the target 715/day. But each "new low" is higher than the last low, which is a sign of bottleneck removal.
Barklikeadog
Active Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
End of August. I think the confusion came from the fact that the Q2 deliveries announcement said 6,000 by end of next month. Deliveries announcement was July 2nd but reported on weekly rate at end of June.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Ah, that explains my fuzzy recollection. According to RobStark, the Panasonic announcement implies battery production increase from 27 GWh to 35 GWh by end of year. This extra 8GWh would support raising Model 3 production 2000 to 2500 per week. So are we looking at no more than 7500 Model 3 per week by end of year?
jhm
Well-Known Member
Tesla Disrupting The Automotive Industry With Extreme Manufacturing - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
This might give some insight into the volatility of production.
This might give some insight into the volatility of production.
Uncle Paul
Well-Known Member
It was said of Alexander the Great that his failures tower over other men's successes.
Maybe this is true also with Elon. He has perhaps accomplished more than any other individual, yet many that have accomplished little hound him as a failure.
Maybe this is true also with Elon. He has perhaps accomplished more than any other individual, yet many that have accomplished little hound him as a failure.
Brovane
Member
Thanks for the article. It was very insightful on Tesla's manufacturing process of using scrum instead of waterfall. It looks like SpaceX practices the same thing around the design of the F9. Especially considering how many iterations they went through of the F9. I heard it had NASA and USAF people pulling their hair trying to certify the vehicle.
To bad Seeking Alpha is such a cesspool of shorts. After Tesla starts recording regular profits we will have lots of moving of goal posts over on Seeking Alpha.
That's incorrect. The last week of June he claimed that Tesla had stopped production of S and X and that was necessary to get to 5K/week Model 3 production because Tesla was capped at 5K/week total production S/X/3. That statement was totally false and based on his Twitter account it appears he knew it was false.
This has been spelled out multiple times, including
here: https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/skabooshkas-model-3-production-numbers.123565/page
and here: TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Relying on someone who blatantly mispresented Tesla's total production in the last week of Q2 is very dangerous IMO. This guy has proven to be totally untrustworthy.
Last edited:
jhm
Well-Known Member
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