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Skabooshka's Model 3 Production Numbers
- Thread starter bdy0627
- Start date
On July 28, 2018 Tesla produced approximately:
Model 3: 540
Model S: 170
Model X: 150
Model 3: 540
Model S: 170
Model X: 150
Going off of these numbers as of the July 28th data, here are the model 3 averages:
Daily = 496
Weekly = 3,473
If we eliminate the July 4th holiday and start with July 5th:
Daily = 562
Weekly = 3,936
Over the last 2 weeks (since July 15)
Daily = 579
Weekly = 4,055
I'm pretty happy with a 4,000/week average for July (not including 4th of July holiday.) It would be great if Tesla could average 5,000+/week for August, but that might be a little optimistic. We'll see. Bottom line is that they are sustaining 4,000/week and pushing sporadically into 5,000/week. I don't know that this will have much effect on the stock price short-term, since they are not yet sustaining 5,000/week, even though they are getting very close.
Daily = 496
Weekly = 3,473
If we eliminate the July 4th holiday and start with July 5th:
Daily = 562
Weekly = 3,936
Over the last 2 weeks (since July 15)
Daily = 579
Weekly = 4,055
I'm pretty happy with a 4,000/week average for July (not including 4th of July holiday.) It would be great if Tesla could average 5,000+/week for August, but that might be a little optimistic. We'll see. Bottom line is that they are sustaining 4,000/week and pushing sporadically into 5,000/week. I don't know that this will have much effect on the stock price short-term, since they are not yet sustaining 5,000/week, even though they are getting very close.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
The more I think I about it, the more I think that it would be unusual for someone in the know at Tesla to be emailing daily production updates to a number of other people at Tesla.
1. I think word would get out about Skabooshka posting the numbers and Tesla would stop emailing them out if they were. And if the numbers were being sent without Tesla’s permission, it would be easy for them to find out who’s doing it.
2. Tesla has traditionally been very tight-lipped about production numbers. Why would they suddenly start sending them out daily to various employees?
3. If related to the 3 ramp, why would they also send S and X numbers out? Those are pretty much at steady-state production, so the numbers would not be helpful for the ramp.
4. Anyone who would need these numbers would have access to the daily numbers posted inside the factory. Just wouldn’t make sense for Tesla to email them out.
I know that augkuo confirmed the numbers one day from a separate source, but it’s possible that person was using Skabooshka’s numbers as a source.
Looking at the comments over there, most of those guys look like they’re just losers with no life and no girlfriends who live in their mom’s basement and use Tesla to play out their fantasy of not having qualified for the special forces.
Seriously, they’re writing plans for “recon missions” to scope out for the Lathrop storage lot. They refer to their aerial recon of that lot as missions. Literally the kind of stuff I did with my friends when we were 12 and played with toy guns
with the orange safety tip.
It’s really given me some great laughs. It’s a bunch of fat guys playing guns in their basement, and when they look in the mirror, they see Rambo.
1. I think word would get out about Skabooshka posting the numbers and Tesla would stop emailing them out if they were. And if the numbers were being sent without Tesla’s permission, it would be easy for them to find out who’s doing it.
2. Tesla has traditionally been very tight-lipped about production numbers. Why would they suddenly start sending them out daily to various employees?
3. If related to the 3 ramp, why would they also send S and X numbers out? Those are pretty much at steady-state production, so the numbers would not be helpful for the ramp.
4. Anyone who would need these numbers would have access to the daily numbers posted inside the factory. Just wouldn’t make sense for Tesla to email them out.
I know that augkuo confirmed the numbers one day from a separate source, but it’s possible that person was using Skabooshka’s numbers as a source.
Looking at the comments over there, most of those guys look like they’re just losers with no life and no girlfriends who live in their mom’s basement and use Tesla to play out their fantasy of not having qualified for the special forces.
Seriously, they’re writing plans for “recon missions” to scope out for the Lathrop storage lot. They refer to their aerial recon of that lot as missions. Literally the kind of stuff I did with my friends when we were 12 and played with toy guns
with the orange safety tip.
It’s really given me some great laughs. It’s a bunch of fat guys playing guns in their basement, and when they look in the mirror, they see Rambo.
I debunked skabooshka in a separate post a while ago... not sure why people still follow his numbers.
ZachShahan
Active Member
I believe, but not 100% sure, that daily production numbers are shown on a central display at the factory. That’s at least somewhat more plausible than mailing them out daily. No idea about how trustworthy the numbers are.
Todd Burch
14-Year Member
Oddly I can’t find the post right now. It was here at TMC and I saw it yesterday morning. Haven’t found it yet. It was a link to a screenshot of some research someone did on Twitter. Seemed to show pretty clear evidence.
Short story is that he is a PhD candidate at U. of Michigan and his brother works for VW or Porsche in Europe. Will try to find later if I’m able.
FYI. That post violated Terms of Services for this forum and moderators removed it.
ZachShahan
Active Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
Keep in mind that this is the short seller who at the end of Q2 falsely claimed Tesla had stopped producing S and X in order to get to 5K/week Model 3:
On June 29 he doubled down on this and retweeted a post claiming that Tesla had a max production capacity of 5K/week for S/X and 3, implying no S and X could be produced to get to 5K/week Model 3.
This was contradicted two days later by an internal email from Elon confirming 5K/week Model 3 and 2K/week S/X had been produced in the last week of June. Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk
After he was outed as a liar, he didn't contradict Tesla's claims re the S and X, and instead had the nerve to claim that his S/X numbers, "which he had neglected to post" were also accurate,
This guy is totally untrustworthy, a proven liar from his own twitter account.
Even if on some days his estimates are reasonably accurate, they will become inaccurate whenever it is in his interest as a short seller for them to be. This week, for example, would be a great time for him to lie about the numbers going into the Q2 report.
I give zero credence to his numbers.
Edit: I see @TSLA_Hopeful made the same point in the Market Action thread, linked above.
Hopefully useful for people to see it spelled out here as well since some still seem to be giving his numbers credence when he is obviously a liar.
skabooshka @skabooshka Jun 26
$TSLA is now only producing model 3s - no S/X. This is what it takes to produce model 3s in quantity. And this rate of production cannot be sustained.
23 replies20 retweets102 likes
Show this thread
$TSLA is now only producing model 3s - no S/X. This is what it takes to produce model 3s in quantity. And this rate of production cannot be sustained.
23 replies20 retweets102 likes
Show this thread
On June 29 he doubled down on this and retweeted a post claiming that Tesla had a max production capacity of 5K/week for S/X and 3, implying no S and X could be produced to get to 5K/week Model 3.
This was contradicted two days later by an internal email from Elon confirming 5K/week Model 3 and 2K/week S/X had been produced in the last week of June. Tesla reaches Model 3 production milestone and record 7,000-car week total production, says Elon Musk
After he was outed as a liar, he didn't contradict Tesla's claims re the S and X, and instead had the nerve to claim that his S/X numbers, "which he had neglected to post" were also accurate,
skabooshka @skabooshka Jul 1
I believe these numbers have been proven to be accurate, corroborated by Reuters reporting that the 5k number was nearly achieved, but only actually achieved about 5 hours after EoQ. My S/X numbers, which I neglected to post, were also accurate.
3 replies1 retweet12 likes
I believe these numbers have been proven to be accurate, corroborated by Reuters reporting that the 5k number was nearly achieved, but only actually achieved about 5 hours after EoQ. My S/X numbers, which I neglected to post, were also accurate.
3 replies1 retweet12 likes
This guy is totally untrustworthy, a proven liar from his own twitter account.
Even if on some days his estimates are reasonably accurate, they will become inaccurate whenever it is in his interest as a short seller for them to be. This week, for example, would be a great time for him to lie about the numbers going into the Q2 report.
I give zero credence to his numbers.
Edit: I see @TSLA_Hopeful made the same point in the Market Action thread, linked above.
Hopefully useful for people to see it spelled out here as well since some still seem to be giving his numbers credence when he is obviously a liar.
Last edited:
jhm
Well-Known Member
What we think is motivating skabooshka to post these numbers? It seems to be an effort to justify previous claims, to prove that they have accurate data. It may also be an attempt to attack people to follow the Twitter feed and thereby get a stead does of the Tesla fraud propaganda. Both of these motives does not particularly motivate using false numbers. But a third motive could be to build credibility so that future manipulations are assumed to be credible.
I believe we should be watching this, not because it is a reliable source, but to make sure it does not become a sham. If the data reported begins to contradict Tesla we need to identify the gap and counteract it. Of course this sort of propagandist could just as well hold that the contradiction with Tesla is just "proof" that Tesla is a fraud. So it is very important that this entity not gain too much credibility, not so much as to usurp Tesla as the most authorative source of Tesla data. For this reason, it may be prudent for Tesla to do weekly or monthly production reporting. It is not good to allow bears to fill the gap for investors.
I believe we should be watching this, not because it is a reliable source, but to make sure it does not become a sham. If the data reported begins to contradict Tesla we need to identify the gap and counteract it. Of course this sort of propagandist could just as well hold that the contradiction with Tesla is just "proof" that Tesla is a fraud. So it is very important that this entity not gain too much credibility, not so much as to usurp Tesla as the most authorative source of Tesla data. For this reason, it may be prudent for Tesla to do weekly or monthly production reporting. It is not good to allow bears to fill the gap for investors.
pz1975
Active Member
This is what I have believed about this from
the beginning.
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