SolarCity (SCTY)

[TheTalkingMule]

I understand that you're upset because of the money you lost but I do not draw the same conclusions that you do.

That's the whole point of discussion, if everyone had a rosy outlook on this investment the conversation would be pointless.

Having so much knowledge of a company for months/years and then to suddenly shift to preaching doom and gloom smells a bit fishy to me, but this guy is putting some of the best numbers/arguments out there. If you think they're incorrect, refute them. As shareholders, we should be buying this guy lunches for doing half the work for us regardless of him being invested long, actively shorting or any other motivations.

I tend to look at things from a big picture, largest economic force wins, long-only perspective, what we're getting here is a how-is-this-company-going-to-make-money-next-year analysis from a worst case perspective. That may seem "negative" to some, but a lot of times worst case becomes reality at least temporarily.

I personally hope the folks at SCTY are reading this thread because they could stand to take some of the advice presented around clarity of accounting. It wouldn't surprise me if they are. This company is doing it right, we shouldn't be afraid to drill all the way down to reality even if it's unpalatable to the average near-term investor.

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where ever the market goes, my indication is Solarcity will either lead it or be right there with others. Elon has already stated he does not see any other energy storage developments that can challenge tesla energy for a while so, my estimation is im Positioned well to witness the most effective commercial execution of innovate consumer energy products.

Exactly, and the best part is that SolarCity isn't even positioned to be your "solar provider", they're your energy provider. Even if the storage tech changes in 10-20 years and Telsa is out of the game for some reason, that customer who's had a PPA for 12 years can just call up SCTY to design a micro-grid based around salt water batteries or Bloom Boxes or whatever they like.

Nothing's ever a certainty, I like the analogy of trying to pick the 4 winners of the 1200 car companies that existed at the turn of the century, but STCY has such a huge lead and today's Henry Ford is Chairman. What's not to like?

 

[Foghat]

Elon doesn't run the shop. We shouldn't associate SolarCity with him too much.

Great vision. Poor execution.

Elon is the tesla energy side of the Solarcity solar+storage package. His execution on the production of power walls/power packs is an integral part of the statrgic outlook. So, yes, his development of tesla and the Gigafactory is very important and can not be separated from the futur of Solarcity.

Solar+storage is the futur of Solarcity. California is maybe the one of the largest initial markets for Solarcity solar+storage products. As such, aggregation developments are important to track. Looks like November 30th is an important date because they announce contract winners. Solarcity might be in the mix, but I'm not sure.

How California is bringing DER aggregation to wholesale markets | Utility Dive


However below is the article on the 50 home pilot program to aggregate the solar+storage energy for firm demand response. Might be interesting to follow the outcome of this program in tandem with the first ever DER whole sale market auction in California. Again, November 30th they announce the selected winners.

SoCalEdison & SolarCity partner to study aggregated distributed resources | Utility Dive

 

[SBenson]

Having so much knowledge of a company for months/years and then to suddenly shift to preaching doom and gloom smells a bit fishy to me, but this guy is putting some of the best numbers/arguments out there. If you think they're incorrect, refute them. As shareholders, we should be buying this guy lunches for doing half the work for us regardless of him being invested long, actively shorting or any other motivations.

Thanks Mule for the kind words. Appreciate it.

 

[electracity]

According to you customers will be defaulting in droves when market prices drop. How is this different?

And, have you adjusted your position given that you now understand that the self-supply option will be grid-tied?

Not me. I have said repeatedly that SC accumulated contracts have significant value considering the high average FICO scores. SC customers will pay, or SC will have recourse to make them pay.

What is solarcity's product in a state with a grid-tied self supply option? The only thing proven to work for them are complex financial products that lock in their electricity costs over the time it takes to depreciate the installed system.

I'm sure the are working on an even more complex Complex Financial Product for Hawaii.

 

[SBenson]

Understanding current dynamics - made simple

Understanding what's in store for SolarCity is quite straightforward actually.

Step-1) Take SolarCity's current economics

Step-2) Remove renewal portion (as it is NOT financ'able/bankable)

Step-3) Add in the impact of ITC drop

Step-4) Add in the cost savings

Step-5) Factor in the impact of Net-Metering scale back. Whether it is lower FIT or adding battery costs

Step-6) Is there still 20% profit margin left?

Answer: Yes - SolarCity can continue to operate in the state.

Answer: No - The contract is not bankable. Thus SolarCity will need to pull back from the state.


If we were to do this, each one of us will arrive at a different answer, because we will all use different numbers, data points and assumptions.

When I tried to foresee the future through this, it didn't look good and hence I pulled back. Infact it looked like SolarCity will be on the cusp just with ITC hit alone.

Do your own math. Come to your own conclusions.

Also note, even when the math works, there may be additional issues. Like electracity pointed out in case of Hawaii the FIT is not "gauranteed" for 20 years (the way NEM is). So this creates additional issues around financabilty/bankability.

The key question is: is SolarCity's business model bankable, post-nem, post-itc?

Because the entire business model is to take on debt to put the install, collect money over time, while paying back the debt. If you can't raise the debt upfront - it's game over! period. there are no two ways about this.

Careful in brushing aside PPA/Lease model saying they can always sell it in a different way or bank it in a different way. PPA/Lease *is* the core creativity that is foundation to this company, that created these many installs for so long. Switching into a new model won't happen overnight. It will be a very slow painful process.

Look at MyPower scheme. Lyndon predicted it will be half the sales within no time. But even after an year or so, it makes up 10 to 15% of sales.

The best, most cost effective way to get solar for any consumer is, get a loan if needed, then buy the system outright. SolarCity given it's very expensive business model (sales, admin etc.), can't compete with local guys in this specific model.

So SolarCity needs to create a different model which is somehow appealing to homeowners, yet one that is bankable.

The future is clouded. Very clouded. The stock price is pricing in this risk. Market is not irrational the way we might have thought (before knowing what the heck is going on).

There is a phase-2 to this post. Will post shortly. But will post a few thoughts on valuation first. Will pivot into that starting from one of jhm's posts (applogies upfront jhm). Also want to listen to any responses on this post before I do a phase-2.

 

[jhm]

No actuaries available to price this risk. Will HECO be paying 5 cents or 50 cents in 2028?

Oh, please. This is a market risk, not an actuarial risk. The market risk can be hedged by shorting oil futures.

SolarCity could even write a swap contract directly with HECO as HECO already short in oil in precisely this way. With such a contract both entities hedge their risk. It's a win-win.

 

[Foghat]

Understanding what's in store for SolarCity is quite straightforward actually.

Step-1) Take SolarCity's current economics

Step-2) Remove renewal portion (as it is NOT financ'able/bankable)

Step-3) Add in the impact of ITC drop

Step-4) Add in the cost savings

Step-5) Factor in the impact of Net-Metering scale back. Whether it is lower FIT or adding battery costs

Step-6) Is there still 20% profit margin left?

Answer: Yes - SolarCity can continue to operate in the state.

Answer: No - The contract is not bankable. Thus SolarCity will need to pull back from the state.


If we were to do this, each one of us will arrive at a different answer, because we will all use different numbers, data points and assumptions.

When I tried to foresee the future through this, it didn't look good and hence I pulled back. Infact it looked like SolarCity will be on the cusp just with ITC hit alone.

Do your own math. Come to your own conclusions.

Also note, even when the math works, there may be additional issues. Like electracity pointed out in case of Hawaii the FIT is not "gauranteed" for 20 years (the way NEM is). So this creates additional issues around financabilty/bankability.

The key question is: is SolarCity's business model bankable, post-nem, post-itc?

Because the entire business model is to take on debt to put the install, collect money over time, while paying back the debt. If you can't raise the debt upfront - it's game over! period. there are no two ways about this.

Careful in brushing aside PPA/Lease model saying they can always sell it in a different way or bank it in a different way. PPA/Lease *is* the core creativity that is foundation to this company, that created these many installs for so long. Switching into a new model won't happen overnight. It will be a very slow painful process.

Look at MyPower scheme. Lyndon predicted it will be half the sales within no time. But even after an year or so, it makes up 10 to 15% of sales.

The best, most cost effective way to get solar for any consumer is, get a loan if needed, then buy the system outright. SolarCity given it's very expensive business model (sales, admin etc.), can't compete with local guys in this specific model.

So SolarCity needs to create a different model which is somehow appealing to homeowners, yet one that is bankable.

The future is clouded. Very clouded. The stock price is pricing in this risk. Market is not irrational the way we might have thought (before knowing what the heck is going on).

There is a phase-2 to this post. Will post shortly. But will post a few thoughts on valuation first. Will pivot into that starting from one of jhm's posts (applogies upfront jhm). Also want to listen to any responses on this post before I do a phase-2.

you don't accept assumptions on renewal, yet you accept assumptions on net metering changes? You can't find bankability on net metering scenarios. Also, as I've posted just a few minutes ago, you are completely ignoring solar+storage value which is looking very valuable to Solarcity and Solarcity customers in resulting cost/kWh. Why?

no matter how you break the pie, still has all the ingredients. Can't dismiss ramping solar+storage in Solarcity business model and value proposition if you are so concerned about the future viability of he company.

to add, Hawaii PUC has stated in the Hawaii article I linked earlier that if the current non net metering arrangement causes damage, they they will adjust. Doesn't sound like even in the most doomsday scenario Hawaii PUC is going to let solar industry go underwater.

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Elon is the tesla energy side of the Solarcity solar+storage package. His execution on the production of power walls/power packs is an integral part of the statrgic outlook. So, yes, his development of tesla and the Gigafactory is very important and can not be separated from the futur of Solarcity.

Solar+storage is the futur of Solarcity. California is maybe the one of the largest initial markets for Solarcity solar+storage products. As such, aggregation developments are important to track. Looks like November 30th is an important date because they announce contract winners. Solarcity might be in the mix, but I'm not sure.

How California is bringing DER aggregation to wholesale markets | Utility Dive


However below is the article on the 50 home pilot program to aggregate the solar+storage energy for firm demand response. Might be interesting to follow the outcome of this program in tandem with the first ever DER whole sale market auction in California. Again, November 30th they announce the selected winners.

SoCalEdison & SolarCity partner to study aggregated distributed resources | Utility Dive

Sbenson, any thoughts on this? It's not going to go away anytime soon,so...

 

[SBenson]

you don't accept assumptions on renewal, yet you accept assumptions on net metering changes? You can't find bankability on net metering scenarios. Also, as I've posted just a few minutes ago, you are completely ignoring solar+storage value which is looking very valuable to Solarcity and Solarcity customers in resulting cost/kWh. Why?

no matter how you break the pie, still has all the ingredients. Can't dismiss ramping solar+storage in Solarcity business model and value proposition if you are so concerned about the future viability of he company.

to add, Hawaii PUC has stated in the Hawaii article I linked earlier that if the current non net metering arrangement causes damage, they they will adjust. Doesn't sound like even in the most doomsday scenario Hawaii PUC is going to let solar industry go underwater.

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Sbenson, any thoughts on this? It's not going to go away anytime soon,so...

I (or for that matter market) would NOT price in "pilot projects" and "studies". Sorry.

When there is adequate proof that the model works, and there is visibility into revenue trajectory, that is when some future gets priced in. Not some pie in the sky.

For reference, have you looked at the Tesla threads? Veterans in the forum believe that Model X is NOT priced in adequately at this point. Model X is literally in the front door and still not priced in. Revenues from storage products are NOT priced in either. Consensus opinion is that once X and storage revenues start coming in, there will be a strong trajectory of stock price going up.

A phenomenal company like Tesla, with products literally at the front door, are not getting credit for them.

SolarCity can't get credit for a "pilot" project. Sorry.

 

[jhm]

Agreed. I guess this is just the best and most logical way to illustrate the considerable residual value after this "20 year money fountain"(© ThetalkingMule 2015) contract is up.

I mean, in theory they could just sell the whole 20 year package again to the very same customer at the very same rate and both parties should be overjoyed with neither of them having to get off the couch. Now that's some renewal value!

Of course, nearly-free electricity may well be ubiquitous in 2036 and the money will be in some kind of awesome fuel cell tech as a "storage" for solar, who knows. Hopefully SCTY has their eye on that **** and is ready to pivot if needed.

Yes, and more.

There are lots of ways the renewal value can become immediate cashflow prior to 20 years out. For a prime example, anyone refinancing their mortgage would likely save money and reduce their tax bill by buying out their solar lease. How many families are not going to refinance over the next 20 years? The majority will.

And there are many ways for SolarCity to encourage prepayment. Any sort of upgrade is an opportunity to lock in more value.

Thus a substantial portion of the renewal value will be prepaid and realized by SolarCity within the next decade. That is why the renewal value is relevant to shareholders today and in the coming years. It's not just cash flow that we must wait 20 years to see. The value can be realized much sooner than that.

 

[Foghat]

I (or for that matter market) would NOT price in "pilot projects" and "studies". Sorry.

When there is adequate proof that the model works, and there is visibility into revenue trajectory, that is when some future gets priced in. Not some pie in the sky.

For reference, have you looked at the Tesla threads? Veterans in the forum believe that Model X is NOT priced in adequately at this point. Model X is literally in the front door and still not priced in. Revenues from storage products are NOT priced in either. Consensus opinion is that once X and storage revenues start coming in, there will be a strong trajectory of stock price going up.

A phenomenal company like Tesla, with products literally at the front door, are not getting credit for them.

SolarCity can't get credit for a "pilot" project. Sorry.

Youre really losing me now. We're taking about the future Solarcity and there business, not a day trade "priced in or not" stock. You continually say the future of the company is in peril, but yet you don't accept the future of where the company is going and in many respects is already there. Somehow you're going to this priced in and out arguement, which ironically, weakens you're argument even further because it isn't priced in to solarcity's stock(or tesla either).

Solarcity is is seeing aggressive success with demand logic already, Walmart expanded its order as a result. There is a growing list of companies installing demand logic right now. Solar+storage is not a concept, it is working right now. Kuaii is another real world example of Solarcity solar +storage. Now is the time residential storage is beginning to ramp up. Again, demand has been over the top, more demand then in company history selling solar only, so this is happening. It's not a far off idea, it is the future business model in he real world. The pilot program rolls directly into the real world whole sale market. Wash rinse repeat.

It can not be dismissed in modeling the future business success of Solarcity. To do so is missing a significant piece of the future value as an investment.

If you incorporate this in your down-beat projections, I might find that interesting. but until then, good luck with all your investing endevours.

 

[SBenson]

Youre really losing me now. We're taking about the future Solarcity and there business, not a day trade "priced in or not" stock. You continually say the future of the company is in peril, but yet you don't accept the future of where the company is going and in many respects is already there. Somehow you're going to this priced in and out arguement, which ironically, weakens you're argument even further because it isn't priced in to solarcity's stock(or tesla either).

The "future" that I have always been talking about is between - now and Q2 2017 -

That is where the risk is. That is what we all have been collectively talking about.

If you have/show proof that storage revenues for solarcity will dramatically go up in this period to put the company on a positive track and save it from abyss. That's great. Lets talk about it.

Per my estimation a "pilot" project today doesn't create that sort of revenue streams (or contracts of revenue streams that can be discounted back to current date) between now and Q2 2017 to save the day.

Hope that makes things clearer.

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Add to above: if SolarCity makes it out ok into 2017 Q2. I will be back buying a lot of shares.

As I clarified this morning, when someone asked my intentions, I said I am considering going long if a set conditions prevail. I am still sorting it out in my head.

I might very well miss out a swing back up as I wait for my 'conditions', but that's totally cool with me. I would rather miss out than stare into abyss. That's just me.

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The issue here was many people are confused as to what the fucc is going on.

I have a perspective. I'm just sharing it. You might have a different one. Please share it.

How do you explain current $25 price? Short manipulation?

 

[jhm]

Understanding what's in store for SolarCity is quite straightforward actually.

Step-1) Take SolarCity's current economics

Step-2) Remove renewal portion (as it is NOT financ'able/bankable)

Step-3) Add in the impact of ITC drop

Step-4) Add in the cost savings

Step-5) Factor in the impact of Net-Metering scale back. Whether it is lower FIT or adding battery costs

Step-6) Is there still 20% profit margin left?

Answer: Yes - SolarCity can continue to operate in the state.

Answer: No - The contract is not bankable. Thus SolarCity will need to pull back from the state.


If we were to do this, each one of us will arrive at a different answer, because we will all use different numbers, data points and assumptions.

When I tried to foresee the future through this, it didn't look good and hence I pulled back. Infact it looked like SolarCity will be on the cusp just with ITC hit alone.

Do your own math. Come to your own conclusions.

Also note, even when the math works, there may be additional issues. Like electracity pointed out in case of Hawaii the FIT is not "gauranteed" for 20 years (the way NEM is). So this creates additional issues around financabilty/bankability.

The key question is: is SolarCity's business model bankable, post-nem, post-itc?

Because the entire business model is to take on debt to put the install, collect money over time, while paying back the debt. If you can't raise the debt upfront - it's game over! period. there are no two ways about this.

Careful in brushing aside PPA/Lease model saying they can always sell it in a different way or bank it in a different way. PPA/Lease *is* the core creativity that is foundation to this company, that created these many installs for so long. Switching into a new model won't happen overnight. It will be a very slow painful process.

Look at MyPower scheme. Lyndon predicted it will be half the sales within no time. But even after an year or so, it makes up 10 to 15% of sales.

The best, most cost effective way to get solar for any consumer is, get a loan if needed, then buy the system outright. SolarCity given it's very expensive business model (sales, admin etc.), can't compete with local guys in this specific model.

So SolarCity needs to create a different model which is somehow appealing to homeowners, yet one that is bankable.

The future is clouded. Very clouded. The stock price is pricing in this risk. Market is not irrational the way we might have thought (before knowing what the heck is going on).

There is a phase-2 to this post. Will post shortly. But will post a few thoughts on valuation first. Will pivot into that starting from one of jhm's posts (applogies upfront jhm). Also want to listen to any responses on this post before I do a phase-2.

I take exception to step 2. The customer cannot exercise the option not to renew until years 20 and 25. The customer is under obligation to prepay the renewal to get out of the lease at any other time. Moreover, the renewal option hold substantial value to the customer at the time they may exercise the option.

Furthermore growth opportunities extend into many more states and countries. Existing a poor performing market for any reason is not the end of SolarCity.

ITC will have systemwide impacts that are not anticipated in your analysis. For example, the utilities may escalate rates in response to a step down.

Furthermore, this analysis ignores the durable value of Silevo and Zep including the befit of have eposure to other non-installer parts of the solar supply chain.

You may also want to address SolarCity prospects to grow in the C&I segment. Such customers exist under substantially more complex utility rate plans and benefit enormously from adding batteries.

 

[SBenson]

I take exception to step 2. The customer cannot exercise the option not to renew until years 20 and 25. The customer is under obligation to prepay the renewal to get out of the lease at any other time. Moreover, the renewal option hold substantial value to the customer at the time they may exercise the option.

James, just to clarify, the question is NOT what value it has to the shareholder. The question is merely what part of the system is 'bankable'.

Can that renewal portion be financed? The simple answer to that very specific question is - no.

There is a reason why I said 20% margin in the last step. That is the "equity" that SolarCity needs to hold, while it mortgages the rest.

Forget about what value SolarCity will be creating for shareholders. That's a different topic.

For SolarCity to survive, the model needs to be bankable.

 

[electracity]

Oh, please. This is a market risk, not an actuarial risk. The market risk can be hedged by shorting oil futures.

SolarCity could even write a swap contract directly with HECO as HECO already short in oil in precisely this way. With such a contract both entities hedge their risk. It's a win-win.

Cost of diesel could affect electricity prices
Cost of renewables could affect electricity prices
Incentives/disincentives could affect electricity prices
In 10 years HECO will probably use TOU pricing based on momentary cost.
There is no instrument to hedge a twenty year solarcity contract.

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For SolarCity to survive, the model needs to be bankable.

Or they just need to sell the system and let the client finance the system. Partner with a lending institution to make a easy one stop sale for the customer. Solacity pre-qualifies. They know the prospect is credit worthy.

Why oh why don't they take this approach? There must be a reason.

 

[SBenson]

Why oh why don't they take this approach? There must be a reason.

Haha clever

 

[Foghat]

The "future" that I have always been talking about is between - now and Q2 2017 -

That is where the risk is. That is what we all have been collectively talking about.

If you have/show proof that storage revenues for solarcity will dramatically go up in this period to put the company on a positive track and save it from abyss. That's great. Lets talk about it.

Per my estimation a "pilot" project today doesn't create that sort of revenue streams (or contracts of revenue streams that can be discounted back to current date) between now and Q2 2017 to save the day.

Hope that makes things clearer.

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Add to above: if SolarCity makes it out ok into 2017 Q2. I will be back buying a lot of shares.

As I clarified this morning, when someone asked my intentions, I said I am considering going long if a set conditions prevail. I am still sorting it out in my head.

I might very well miss out a swing back up as I wait for my 'conditions', but that's totally cool with me. I would rather miss out than stare into abyss. That's just me.

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The issue here was many people are confused as to what the fucc is going on.

I have a perspective. I'm just sharing it. You might have a different one. Please share it.

How do you explain current $25 price? Short manipulation?

I'm getting suckered into one more...

it it might be advisable to really understand the business model. Solarcity is in the business of selling electricity. Low cost electricity compared to the local utility. They are not looking to make revenue off the sale of storage. The revenue stream is not from selling storage.

Solarcity's revenue stream is from selling cheaper energy. Solar+storage is all about a cheaper cost/kWh for the consumer. That's the value proposition. That's sales pitch. That's the Bottomline.

Current contracts of solar+storage already have 50/50 sharing under the whole sale market aggregation rate plan. It's already in place. Solarcity solar+storage is meant to lower cost per kWh and that's what customers are buying into.

revenue is measured just like it is today, only instead of net metering, aggregation services revenue goes to cost of energy delivery by Solarcity which translates into cheaper retail electricity as well as healthy profit margins for Solarcity.

Like I said before again and again, this is a time of uncertainty and transition(net metering, ITC, aggregation, value of solar,etc.). Long term investors either weather the storm or sit it out until they are comfortable. Otherwise, traders run this from day to day until some kind of longer term financial modeling can be established.

Again, good luck with your investments.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The "future" that I have always been talking about is between - now and Q2 2017 -

That is where the risk is. That is what we all have been collectively talking about.

The idea of some kind of short-term existential "risk" for SCTY is just laughable. They've been doubling every year with massive revenue, have pivoted to 40% growth to show profit, install costs have been cut in half and you want us to think there's a major threat somewhere in the net metering minutia of the mainland states? That's just not reality IMO.

The battle in PA for instance is whether there will be a 110% cap, 200% cap or no cap at all and we have essentially the same type of ridiculous legislature as Kentucky or Oklahoma. There's no stopping solar, it's far too simple of a technology and so far superior. SCTY has proven to be the "favorite" provider of solar energy. Cut some soft costs and start printing cash. What's the problem?

This portion of the thread will be a hoot in a year or so, just like the 2013 Tesla threads are a hoot right now.

 

[blakegallagher]

For most of the year I had a lot of time on my hands in this thread was crickets. Now I'm insanely busy but I wish I had a few hours to go over and respond to a lot in this thread!

Benson what numbers were you using for the install cost in 2017 for Solar City

 

[ggies07]

Like I said before again and again, this is a time of uncertainty and transition(net metering, ITC, aggregation, value of solar,etc.). Long term investors either weather the storm or sit it out until they are comfortable. Otherwise, traders run this from day to day until some kind of longer term financial modeling can be established.

Again, good luck with your investments.

Agreed. I read this thread all day long at work and it's been quite interesting. Glad to have the discussion and I will continue to read and think about it, but the future is solar and right now SolarCity is still the #1 installer. It seems because of the uncertainty we are in a down pattern because people don't know what's going on. That's all. It will all settle out shortly. I was listening to some Frank on the way home from work and this song came on and gave me some peace

"That's life (that's life) that's what all people say
You're riding high in April, Shot down in May
But I know I'm gonna change their tune,
When I'm back on top, back on top in June
I said that's life (that's life) and as funny as it may seem
Some people get their kicks,
Steppin' on a dream
But I just can't let it, let it get me down..."

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Originally Posted by 9837264723849
For jhm: Bloomberg - Utilities Buying Gas Pipelines Better Watch Out for Batteries

That's what I'm talking about! Thanks.

What do they mean by "lackluster power use "? Meaning that as more people use more efficient products that use less energy along with more residential solar, the power consumption is going down while their is more gas to use?

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

The "future" that I have always been talking about is between - now and Q2 2017 -

That is where the risk is. That is what we all have been collectively talking about.

If you have/show proof that storage revenues for solarcity will dramatically go up in this period to put the company on a positive track and save it from abyss. That's great. Lets talk about it.

Per my estimation a "pilot" project today doesn't create that sort of revenue streams (or contracts of revenue streams that can be discounted back to current date) between now and Q2 2017 to save the day.

Hope that makes things clearer.

- - - Updated - - -

Add to above: if SolarCity makes it out ok into 2017 Q2. I will be back buying a lot of shares.

As I clarified this morning, when someone asked my intentions, I said I am considering going long if a set conditions prevail. I am still sorting it out in my head.

I might very well miss out a swing back up as I wait for my 'conditions', but that's totally cool with me. I would rather miss out than stare into abyss. That's just me.

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The issue here was many people are confused as to what the fucc is going on.

I have a perspective. I'm just sharing it. You might have a different one. Please share it.

How do you explain current $25 price? Short manipulation?

Perhaps it is time to bring this out again: Cramer Manipulation - YouTube
LOL!!