SolarCity (SCTY)

[jhm]

The only problem with that is your not allowed to go off grid if your in Nevada. The casinos tried and they would be charged like 10 years worth of electricity to prevent other rate payers bills from going up. .. might be different for residential users but I doubt it. NV Energy seems to be run like the mafia

I can't find anything to substantiate the idea that there is an exit fee for residential rate payers. The issues with large industrial rate payers is at a totally different scale. Both situation are outrageous, a total contradiction to any sort of competitive market place or economic liberty.

So NV Energy is making lost of political enemies. At this point the solvency of the company comes down to political protection. State legislators need to step in and change laws to reassert basic market principles. If the state government fails to rectify this situation it will become economic blight to the whole state.

Consider Switch. They are building out a large facility next to the Gigafactory in TRIC. Switch, Tesla and companies like them are a huge part of what is growing the state economy. Making Switch pay a $27M exit fee is outrageous. If Switch or Tesla were deciding on a new facility in Nevada today, how would they view the prospect of having to "partner" with NV Energy? I can't believe it would be favorable. At this point as a Tesla investor, I don't want Tesla to build out anymore capacity in Nevada than they absolutely must, until this gets sorted out. Tesla, for its part, should have the right not to do business with NV Energy and to trade power with Switch and any other business within TRIC. If this can get carved out, then TRIC will grow like crazy and the Nevada economy will blossom. But without it, Nevada will find it increasingly hard to attract the likes of Tesla and Switch.

So politicians who care about economic growth seriously need to break down the monopoly powers that NV Energy is exploiting. NV Energy is an economic parasite.

 

[Lessmog]

Well, what can I say? Nevada - so it's a tossup.
And the house always wins. But - which house?
Ride the painted pony, let the spinning wheel turn. :tongue:

 

[jhm]

One more thing, it's been said that Warren Buffet simply likes to invest in well run businesses. Any company that has over 7% of its customer base (by revenue) willing to pay hundreds of dollars in exit fees is pretty much the epitome of a business that is not well run. If Mr. Buffet had any integrity left as an investor, he would dump NV Energy for the basket case of a business that it is. At this point I have lost all respect for Buffet as an investor. He is just a two bit crony capitalist, nothing more.

 

[Jack6591]

One more thing, it's been said that Warren Buffet simply likes to invest in well run businesses. Any company that has over 7% of its customer base (by revenue) willing to pay hundreds of dollars in exit fees is pretty much the epitome of a business that is not well run. If Mr. Buffet had any integrity left as an investor, he would dump NV Energy for the basket case of a business that it is. At this point I have lost all respect for Buffet as an investor. He is just a two bit crony capitalist, nothing more.

Agreed.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Like Night And Day: How Two States' Utilities Approach Solar : NPR

"That argument can only come from a monopoly that is used to selling every electron to every customer for the past 100 years," says Walker Wright at Sunrun, one of the largest solar companies in the country. "What rooftop solar represents is the first true form of competition."

 

[jhm]

Like Night And Day: How Two States' Utilities Approach Solar : NPR

Nice, but I would never trust Georgia Power to put solar on my roof. They only got into this after the state legislature changed the law to allow solar leasing and PPAs in the state. Up until that time they were totally about opposing solar in the state. They are only in the rooftop business to try to preempt loss of business to solar financers. That, of course, is a rational, competitive response, but I have a hard time believing that they will not simply entrap solar customers in their monopoly. What I want is real competition that forces utilities to offer market rates for power.

I sure hope SolarCity comes to Georgia soon.

 

[blakegallagher]

One more thing, it's been said that Warren Buffet simply likes to invest in well run businesses. Any company that has over 7% of its customer base (by revenue) willing to pay hundreds of dollars in exit fees is pretty much the epitome of a business that is not well run. If Mr. Buffet had any integrity left as an investor, he would dump NV Energy for the basket case of a business that it is. At this point I have lost all respect for Buffet as an investor. He is just a two bit crony capitalist, nothing more.

+1. He went from an icon in my mind to trash as I have followed the NV energy debacle. That might be harsh and I don't know how hands on he is but he also owns the only bank that does not let customers use their bathrooms.... trashy

 

[doggusfluffy]

The future looks bright for solar power in India

According to the power ministry official, strengthening transmission lines and improving grid infrastructure will also be crucial. Patra added that costs are pushed up because providing services to small rural projects is currently expensive.

For once, though, India's massive population may actually be an advantage in bringing costs down. "If we look at what SolarCity is trying to do in the U.S., if it is economical for them at their limited scale, it will obviously be economical to India at the scale we have."

 

[jhm]

The future looks bright for solar power in India

It's nice that the are looking at SolarCity's business model. No doubt Modi's visit with Musk gave the Indian President some exposure to how SolarCity works. Basically, if the Indian government sets up the right set of policies, SolarCity and many other solar lease companies could take off in India.

India want to grow solar from 10%, or 100GW in 2022, to 25% in 2030. I think this also includes growing all generation by close to 10% annually. So solar may need to be about 500 GW in 2030 to hit 25%. So the grow rate assumed here for solar is only about 22.3% pa. Why I point this out is because the SolarCity model has demonstrated that it can grow at a much faster rate so long as policy is supportive. Certainly 50% growth is plausible. So if solar leasing could hit it's stride by 2022 and grow 40% thereafter, then solar could hit 1.5 TW by 2030 providing near universal access to electricity in the country. Imagine SolarCity driving the cost down below $1/W for rooftop solar. So we are still looking at an investment over $1T, but this would be at substantially less cost than building out expensive grids to serve remote populations. The economic stimulus for the whole country would be absolutely enormous.

FWIW, I've started dreaming about what it would take for the whole world to go 50% solar by 2030. That would be about 8TW. Starting with 233GW last year to get to 8 TW in 2030 requires a mere 26.6% annual growth rate. Certainly panel producers and other solar component producers can scale at 30% per year. So this is doable on the manufacturing side. Solar leasing can double annually if conditions are right. So the main challenge globally is suataining financing and policy. So if Indian leadership can get the policy right, this can be done. India will need 1.5 to 2 TW of solar and about 2 to 3 TWh of batteries. In 2030, India is likely to be the most populous country on the planet.

 

[arondaniel]

NV Power has a great racket: "You are buying less product than I anticipated, so therefore I must charge you more."

For customer disconnect, according to the rules on the NV Energy website (Southern Nevada - Rules) they require 5 days notice. If you have time remaining on a service agreement contract, they will also levy "minimum charges" for the remainder of the contract period. It sounds like most residential customers would only have a service agreement contract in the first place if they had to build a line extension or other facilities to hook them up.

Better hurry up and close this loophole Nevada!!! Nevada PUC, I think you should approve an exit fee equal to all the profits you would have obtained from that customer and all subsequent customers at that address. Sounds like a good use of monopoly power to me!

 

[jhm]

NV Power has a great racket: "You are buying less product than I anticipated, so therefore I must charge you more."

For customer disconnect, according to the rules on the NV Energy website (Southern Nevada - Rules) they require 5 days notice. If you have time remaining on a service agreement contract, they will also levy "minimum charges" for the remainder of the contract period. It sounds like most residential customers would only have a service agreement contract in the first place if they had to build a line extension or other facilities to hook them up.

Better hurry up and close this loophole Nevada!!! Nevada PUC, I think you should approve an exit fee equal to all the profits you would have obtained from that customer and all subsequent customers at that address. Sounds like a good use of monopoly power to me!

Great! Thanks for digging this up. It does seem pretty minimimal. If you have a contract with the utility you've got to honor that contract. Otherwise, not bad.

 

[jhm]

Better Solar Stock: Enphase Energy or SolarEdge Technologies? (ENPH, SEDG)


For those following SolarEdge or Enphase, I like this comparison. Author claims companies like SolarCity could start producing their own optimizers. I think there's a good chance that SolarCity would simply license the optimizer tech from SolarEdge or house a production line in Riverbend. These would be low capital ways for SolarEdge to grow.

BTW SolarCity uses SolarEdge optimizers with ABB string inverters. I don't think that SolarEdge has the fab capacity to supply SolarCity. That's a damn good growth op.

 

[Cosmacelf]

One more thing, it's been said that Warren Buffet simply likes to invest in well run businesses. Any company that has over 7% of its customer base (by revenue) willing to pay hundreds of dollars in exit fees is pretty much the epitome of a business that is not well run. If Mr. Buffet had any integrity left as an investor, he would dump NV Energy for the basket case of a business that it is. At this point I have lost all respect for Buffet as an investor. He is just a two bit crony capitalist, nothing more.

Of course Buffett is a crony capitalist. He plays politicians (and the public, with his folksy image) like the violin.

 

[Discoducky]

Of course Buffett is a crony capitalist. He plays politicians (and the public, with his folksy image) like the violin.

Does he every do commentary on tactical issues like this? If so, I'd love to see them. While I know in my heart he plays the politics and loopholes just as any other large or other capitalist, I'd like to think of him as playing by the rules and wishes the rules were shifting more in favor of the less capable (maybe not the best choice of words) investors/business savvy.

 

[Jack6591]

Better Solar Stock: Enphase Energy or SolarEdge Technologies? (ENPH, SEDG)


For those following SolarEdge or Enphase, I like this comparison. Author claims companies like SolarCity could start producing their own optimizers. I think there's a good chance that SolarCity would simply license the optimizer tech from SolarEdge or house a production line in Riverbend. These would be low capital ways for SolarEdge to grow.

BTW SolarCity uses SolarEdge optimizers with ABB string inverters. I don't think that SolarEdge has the fab capacity to supply SolarCity. That's a damn good growth op.

I am long TSLA, SCTY, and SEDG. Solar power combined with batteries and intelligent controllers/software dovetail into the perfect solution for commercial "Demand Management" and residential "Time-of-Use" rates. Interestingly, California's "Proposed Decision" for its successor net energy management will require time-of-use rate plans for all solar systems. In addition, they are rejecting "Demand Charges" for residential but retaining it for non-residential. I see California's successor net metering tariff becoming a strong catalyst for SolarCity, Tesla and SolarEdge.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Does he every do commentary on tactical issues like this? If so, I'd love to see them. While I know in my heart he plays the politics and loopholes just as any other large or other capitalist, I'd like to think of him as playing by the rules and wishes the rules were shifting more in favor of the less capable (maybe not the best choice of words) investors/business savvy.

Well, Buffett isn't a criminal, he does play by the rules. So do 99.999% of CEOs. I just find him gratingly hypocritical. He carefully cultivates a dear old uncle Warren image, while being a very ruthless, capable, smart CEO who only does things for his own benefit (and Berkshire shareholder's benefit).

The epitome of this was a couple of years ago, he proposed raising income taxes on the rich, which got spun in the press as The Buffett Tax. The irony, lost on almost everyone, is that the proposed tax wouldn't have affected Buffett's taxes one iota since he makes all his personal money on capital gains, and his proposal would have raised taxes on earned income. Chutzpah.

And to your question about commentary, Buffett does comment on things from time to time. In the depths of the 2008 financial meltdown, he took to the pages of the Wall Street Journal to pen an opinion piece which effectively sowed even more panic about the health of the insurance industry in an attempt to get insurance industry friendly laws passed.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Well, Buffett isn't a criminal, he does play by the rules. So do 99.999% of CEOs. I just find him gratingly hypocritical. He carefully cultivates a dear old uncle Warren image, while being a very ruthless, capable, smart CEO who only does things for his own benefit (and Berkshire shareholder's benefit).

The epitome of this was a couple of years ago, he proposed raising income taxes on the rich, which got spun in the press as The Buffett Tax. The irony, lost on almost everyone, is that the proposed tax
wouldn't have affected Buffett's taxes one iota since he makes all his personal money on capital gains, and his proposal would have raised taxes on earned income. Chutzpah.

But for those making more than $1 million — there were 236,883 such households in 2009 — I would raise rates immediately on taxable income in excess of $1 million, including, of course, dividends and capital gains. And for those who make $10 million or more — there were 8,274 in 2009 — I would suggest an additional increase in rate.

Do you _actually_ think that he would suggest something with such an obvious hole that people would jump on straight away?

 

[dha]

Well, Buffett isn't a criminal, he does play by the rules. So do 99.999% of CEOs. I just find him gratingly hypocritical. He carefully cultivates a dear old uncle Warren image, while being a very ruthless, capable, smart CEO who only does things for his own benefit (and Berkshire shareholder's benefit).

The epitome of this was a couple of years ago, he proposed raising income taxes on the rich, which got spun in the press as The Buffett Tax. The irony, lost on almost everyone, is that the proposed tax wouldn't have affected Buffett's taxes one iota since he makes all his personal money on capital gains, and his proposal would have raised taxes on earned income. Chutzpah.

I don't dispute that Buffett is at times hypocritical, but you have completely misrepresented his public position on tax rates for dividends and capital gains--he is in favor of raising them: Log In - The New York Times

 

[Jack6591]

Why California’s Net Energy Metering Decision Matters

California’s Public Utilities Commission (the CPUC) has rejected the requests of its three main investor owned utilities PG&E, SCE, and SDG&E to institute residential demand charges, grid access fees, installed capacity fees, standby fees, or similar fixed charges on Net Energy Metering (NEM) customers. Importantly, the CPUC has retained “Demand Charging” for non-residential customers.

In establishing its successor Net Energy Metering (NEM) program, the CPUC followed California’s legislative mandate to ensure that customer-sited renewable generation continues to grow sustainably.

The successor NEM program mandates that customer-sited generation will utilize “time-of-use” billing rates.

Why “Time-Of-Use” and Non-Residential “Demand Charging” matters to SolarCity, Tesla, and SolarEdge

Electric bills are maddeningly complex. At any given moment, the energy use in a building can be driven by weather, occupant behavior, and equipment issues. By design, electric utilities layer a web of charges that vary by time of day, day of week, and season. Determining the true cost of your electricity use can be daunting.

Time-Of-Use (TOU) rate structures

Under time-of-use rate plans prices are higher when electric demand is higher. This means when you use energy is just as important as how much you use.

Non-Residential Demand Charging

At a base level, utilities bill commercial and industrial customers for electrical power consumption, and demand. To use an analogy, think about consumption as the number on your car’s odometer, telling you how far you’ve driven, Think of demand as the instantaneous reading on your speedometer. Consumption is your overall electricity use, and demand is your peak intensity, or “maximum speed”.

Consider a large commercial facility with lighting, HVAC loads, process equipment and associated motors all being turned on at the same time as the business first opens. The momentary demand as lights come on, AC units start up, and motors, compressors, and pumps begin to spin can result in a tremendous spike in the load (in demand terms “maximum speed or peak demand”). The utility supplying this load, must have the generation, transmission, and distribution equipment online to service this peak demand, if only for a short duration. This is the basis of utility “demand charges”. Demand charges represent substantive revenues for all electric utilities. In contrast, they are the soft underbelly of electric utility business models, and present strong opportunities for disruptive solar companies and customer self-generation.

SolarCity, Tesla, and SolarEdge have created an smart energy management system. It gives residential customer the ability to generate power, store and intelligently control their consumption. Commercial and industrial customers will have the ability to intelligently manage consumption as well as energy flow, reducing their consumed power and mitigating load spikes. Often non-residential demand charges represent 30 to 40 percent of business’ electric bill.

Since California is SolarCity’s home state, the company is well positioned with the right products to advantage of this tremendous opportunity.

 

[dakh]

Would be nice if this gets passed end of Jan and then we get some good news in the quarterly. Much more important than Nevada BS.