Allow me to add to the speculation. The Prius crowd has over 10 years of experience with this wheel/tire argument. You can draw your own conclusions.
3-5% - aero wheel covers vs, no wheel covers at highway speed of 60 to 65 mph, depending on driving style.
1-2% - going up by 1" on wheel size ((in the case of a Prius it was 15" to 16")
2-4% - LRR tires vs. non-LRR tires, and all LRR tires are NOT created equal, some are more efficient than others.
So if we extrapolate these results to the Model 3, I would guess that the 18" wheels with aero wheel covers and LRR tires will be about 5% to 10% more efficient at 60-65 mph than the 19" wheels. Driving around town will be less of a difference, MAYBE 1% to 3%.
This presumes all environmental factors are constant. Weather, road condition, speed, payload, etc. can play an even greater role than wheel/tire combination.
No, I can't link to a formally researched study. The conclusions are anecdotal at best by thousands of Prius drivers. YMMV.