Speculation : Tesla will start production of the Model 3 earlier ?

[omarsultan]

I think they have learned a lot with both the MS and MX, so I think they will stick to their schedule, but I don't see them being able to move it up. The design needs to be finalized, the new production line needs to be built and the GF needs to come online. Assuming they can scale supply chain, I do, however, think we might see a faster ramp than folks expect.

 

[CyberKnife]

It would be nice of Tesla to hold on deliveries of the 200,000th car and build an inventory of cars to flood the deliveries so more of us to take advantage of the full tax credit. I am just wondering if they will do that or not since holding onto inventory is pretty risky to the company from what I learned in my college business courses 10+years ago..

 

[xdriv3]

Before they ramp up production, don't they have to submit a production model to the government for safety testing? Furthermore, Elon mentioned that the car will be 5 starring all safety categories. If testing doesn't go as plan, that'll cut into their time line as well..

 

[vortexz]

Tesla Already produced 100.000 cars and they plan to produce 90.000 MS and MX combined in 2016, so the 200.000 cars will be long produced by the time the Model 3 enters production ...

 

[Pin2High]

That would be awesome,
and unlikely..

.... and that day will be here before you know it.... only if your in a coma ! Which I've put myself into, as waiting for Xmas as a kid was unbearable, this is even worse

 

[pinski]

Tesla Already produced 100.000 cars and they plan to produce 90.000 MS and MX combined in 2016, so the 200.000 cars will be long produced by the time the Model 3 enters production ...

The 200,000 car question only applies to US sales for the Federal Tax Credit, not worldwide, which you are considering.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla Already produced 100.000 cars and they plan to produce 90.000 MS and MX combined in 2016, so the 200.000 cars will be long produced by the time the Model 3 enters production ...

Stop with the misinformation. You are talking total cars produced, the 200k limit only counts cars delivered in the US. (About 50% of the cars Tesla makes go to other countries.)

 

[vortexz]

Stop with the misinformation. You are talking total cars produced, the 200k limit only counts cars delivered in the US. (About 50% of the cars Tesla makes go to other countries.)

sorry I didn't try to missinform anyone,
I didn't know this myself

 

[ModelNforNerd]

They could also start shipping Model 3s to Canada which won't count against the US quota but help their production refinement up to an even higher level.

except Elon's already said CA drivers will be their "beta" users.

Nice try, though, Canada!

 

[ggnykk]

I don't think they will necessarily produce it earlier, but certainly the production will ramp up much faster than previously planned.

 

[wdolson]

I too think that this will happen--but only for low-volume deliveries.

I don't think Tesla will stop the whole "beta testing" car thing that they did for the S and X as they ramped up. I think the Model 3 will still start off at a relatively small trickle.

I believe that, however, the late 2017 / early 2018 mark has always been an internal mark for high volume production.

Here's what evidence and speculation I think may contribute to this situation:

1) The Gigafactory is going to have full car battery and cell production capabilities by late 2016. I think it makes sense for the Gigafactory to produce the completely new battery tech (the larger cells they're using) from the get-go, rather than have the Gigafactory tooled and designed to produce gen1 S and X packs.
2) Mules are, essentially, already on the road. MX mules appeared six months before production, approximately. Applying the same timeline would result in late 2016 for M3 production to begin.
3) It's been known that they've been working on this for a long time.
4) Car definitely looks like it was designed for ease of production (people say the all glass is roof, I say it's probably much simpler to place glass on a chassis like that given their expertise with the MX windshield.
5) Elon already is teasing about the final designs of the car.
6) Engineers stating this is a "production prototype" on the test drives.
7) There are no unproven challenges in this car. Everything it has, has been done on the S and X already.
8) SpaceX and Tesla employees taking first deliveries--they can have a more true "beta test" than the S and X ever could have.
9) The west coast to east coast priority, and stores taking reservations first--they want the early cars to go to places near heavy, existing infrastructure first. Near stores, near high-volume Supercharger corridors like in California, in states that allow service centers. Or in other words, they'll be delivering cars but still needing time to build infrastructure. Having Model 3 development costs largely finished will free up tons of funds for infrastructure.
10) Pre-orders dictating priority for infrastructure.
11) Anti-Tesla laws won't be going away until Tesla is a mass market car, and not a rich man's toy. The earlier Model 3 deliveries start, the earlier these laws can be repealed for infrastructure in these states.
12) More revenue without raising more money through Wall Street--both for timing of development CapEx and for earning sales, it'll be very hard to create more factories and gigafactories in time if they cannot start until late 2017 / early 2018.

The images I've seen of the Model 3 on the road have been Tesla making promotional stuff with the prototypes. The mules are not out there yet. Mules are production configuration cars that are hand built for testing.

Tesla is putting their prototypes on the road more than they did with the Model S and X prototypes, but it appears the Model 3 prototypes are more street legal than the S and X prototypes were. The X prototype had cameras in place of the outside mirrors which was a violation of every state's vehicle code.

No matter who gets the first cars produced, expect some teething problems. No matter how much energy is spent on debugging to make something foolproof, when the product gets out there in the hands of the public the universe will invent a better fool who is able to come up with some failure mode nobody thought of. All new car designs have lower reliability. Some car makers are a bit better than others, but the bigger the changes, the more problems the car will have the first few years on the road. In the case of an all new car design like the Model 3, expect a lot of problems. Probably not quite as bad as the first Model Ss, but still quite a few.

Once the design is finalized, it will take the various testing organizations time to test the cars and establish the safety ratings. I'm not familiar with the procedure for cars, but if you want to get something UL listed it takes 6 months if fast tracked and more likely a year.

 

[JSBulmer]

They could also start shipping Model 3s to Canada which won't count against the US quota but help their production refinement up to an even higher level.

Well that would certainly be nice - especially since I live in western Canada.

 

[Shopaholic]

First delivery on July 4th 2017

There was an article in WSJ few weeks ago and the reporter was talking about the new robots / stamping machine and a "second" production line in the factory ( Fremont).

 

[n00bie]

some analysts said that it will be so simple to make. Cost saving and space saving with the empty dash interior, 1 display screen, 1 glass roof, etc. More new robots and call it a day. I think they will able to stick to their schedule this time around, but not earlier.

 

[vortexz]

Some analysts said it is possible that they will meet all 325k reservations in 2018
Somehow I belive that could be true, because:
By 2018 they will have like 750k reservations, so they have to move pretty fast with production.
And once the Model 3 will be seen on the streets,even more will see and want to buy one

 

[yesup]

Don't get your hopes too high, otherwise, you are just setting yourself up for disappointment.

Tesla obviously would like to move as fast as they can. But so many things can happen, so many things can go wrong causing unforeseen delays.

Things like quality control takes time, there is no point rushing.

 

[RaWPower]

I think everyone is missing one crucial factor for Tesla - needing to convert these reservations into purchases. In similar fashion with MS, Elon turned all non production personnel into a salesforce focused on turning over reservations into purchases.

My gut feeling on this may be wrong but I envision production to commence early summer/deliver to West coasters in late Summer 2017 - 2mos ahead of schedule. By the end of 2018, over 200k M3s would have been converted over to purchases.

We all know how Elon has been notorious for projecting unrealistic timetables but his has learned so much from MS/MX that I see him evolving as a leader. This is a major milestone that will make or break the company if they can't deliver.

I am betting my $$$$$ on the Tesla team to exceed expectations for the future of sustainability.

 

[ecarfan]

some analysts said that it will be so simple to make. Cost saving and space saving with the empty dash interior, 1 display screen, 1 glass roof, etc. More new robots and call it a day. I think they will able to stick to their schedule this time around, but not earlier.

I have no feel for how likely it is that Tesla will start 3 production before late 2017, only hope.

Not to derail this thread, but I keep seeing statements in posts on TMC, like @n00bies says above) that the 3 roof is one piece of glass. I don't think that is correct. There is a windshield piece, a center piece (unless a metal or pano roof is selected by the buyer) and a rear piece. Three pieces. The design is such that from a distance they appear to be a single piece, but they are not.

Anyway, here's hoping I get my 3 in 2017! As a current owner who lives in Californioa and reserved when there were around 200,000 reservations I suppose it's possible. But not likely, I think.

 

[RaWPower]

@ecarfan If you were under $100k (stood in line at Tesla store) you could have been one of the first group invited to configure your vehicle.

At 200k, I assume you reserved after 3/31 and think you're in the 2nd or 3rd group of people to receive invites to configure their M3. And if you configured a PXXD, I would expect something early/mid-2018 (around the same time East coasters who stood in line to reserve on 3/31 and made a similar configuration).

 

[pmich80]

except Elon's already said CA drivers will be their "beta" users.

Nice try, though, Canada!

LOL... i just meant that once they've shipped a whole bunch to Employees/Model S/X owners and part of western USA...if at that point they are near the 200K, I could them switching gears and shipping part of the allotment to Canada. This way when they're peaking and producing the most number of cars they can hit 200K and hit the ground running and ship the most cars possible. Wishful thinking but it makes sense. I could see Elon doing some variation of this.