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Speculation : Tesla will start production of the Model 3 earlier ?

Discussion in 'Model 3' started by vortexz, Apr 7, 2016.

  1. vortexz

    vortexz Member

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    Soon Elon Musk said they are rethinking production plans, I might be bold saying this, but what if Tesla will start delivering Model 3 even a bit earlier, and surprise everyone out there ?
    We all know they have always been late until now, with the MS and MX, but what if this time they will surprise us in a good way ?


    What if they will start first deliveries by October 2017,and deliver at least 10.000 cars by end of 2017, with production slowly ramping up in first months of 2018 to 10.000 cars/month ?
     
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  2. James Anders

    James Anders Member

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    I don't think so. But I do think it's likely they learned their lesson with the Model X.

    Keep things simple.
    Nail down the supply chain and suppliers.
    Second source whenever possible.
    Lock in the design at the appropriate time.

    This is crunch time. The big leagues.
     
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  3. eye.surgeon

    eye.surgeon Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  4. Waverider

    Waverider Member

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    The correct question is, "how many months/years late will they be?"
     
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  5. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    It's very rare that anything in engineering comes in on time and on budget.
     
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  6. AustinPowers

    AustinPowers Total Smeghead

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    True, but I second vortxz's idea. I said it in another thread already, I think Elon might have a pleasent surprise in store for us this time.
    It's just a hunch or gut feeling, and I am definitely not getting my hopes up just yet, but still. Something feels different this time around.
     
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  7. BG121

    BG121 Member

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    Despite all the history of delays, I actually think they will start production early. Here's why:
    1. They've learned painful lessons trying to ramp X production. They even referred to their own "hubris" during their recent earnings call. Keep it simple and build capacity quickly is the lesson learned.
    2. They have everything to lose by being late. They're betting the farm on the 3 and are dealing with mass market consumers vs early adopters. Wall Street and Main Street will punish Tesla if it can't deliver
    3. They'll need to produce1,875 Model 3s per week to clear the backlog in 2 calendar years. That's basically double the current capacity of S & X production and will require an unprecedented amount of manufacturing planning and infra. They need to start early to mitigate #s 1&2 above.
    (Assume 60% conversion of the 325K reservations to date. Though this may be a high conversion estimate, it's not accounting for any incremental reservations between today and when really production begins.)
     
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  8. WarpedOne

    WarpedOne Supreme Premier

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    That is a big omission. Forget 325k, welcome ~1M in Dec 2017.
     
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  9. James_AB

    James_AB New Member

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    I would hope not! I've got an early reservation (in store, near the front of the queue) but if it's earlier than expected it'll wreck my savings plan for it!
     
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  10. pangolina

    pangolina Member

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    My crystal ball says that everyone who will be invited to Part II event will drive away in their ordered cars :D This will happen around November - December 2017 :)
     
  11. vortexz

    vortexz Member

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    so you actually don't want them to begin eaarly because you don't have the savings for it ? that is very selfish
     
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  12. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    I don't think early, but I do think on-time. There is a heck of a lot to do in 1.5 years until they have to start running the line. With that said, the M3 is a much more conventional construction vehicle with relatively few manufacturing challenges. That was NOT the case with the S and X. They employ a lot of really good manufacturing people who came from other automakers. Take away the design challenges and they KNOW how to build and ramp up a line. There's no mystery and relatively little risk.
     
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  13. Siciliano

    Siciliano Member

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    I'm not sure why you guys are comparing the model s/x to the 3. They've learned a lot from the production issues they had with the x. This time around, they have a staggering, unprecedented amount of pre-orders for the 3 and are already preparing to increase production by scouting out other facilities to open up in China and Europe. So I see this as a case of preparing well ahead of time and being clearly proactive instead of reactive.

    So I'm siding with the camp that predicts production will begin on time, with the slight chance of a nice surprise of beginning early. Fingers crossed! :D
     
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  14. Bimbels

    Bimbels GoldMember

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    I think on time with a solid ramp will be the goal. "On time" has a several month window, remember. Probably accelerating plans for facilities outside US in anticipation of Fremont reaching max capacity, which they think will happen sooner than they initially expected.
     
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  15. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Active Member

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    #15 ItsNotAboutTheMoney, Apr 8, 2016
    Last edited: Apr 8, 2016
    Accelerated production schedule would mean more hiring and purchase. Suppliers would need to ramp up faster, etc.

    So, could mean attempting a faster ramp. But obviously it would make sense to start the low volume test manufacturing earlier.
     
  16. wdolson

    wdolson Active Member

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    I've been through the R&D cycle many times on many products. Engineering a derivative of something that has been done before is easier than doing something cutting edge. It's also better to have all your R&D resources focused on one product instead of two (as they had with the Model X and 3 in development at the same time). Having a factory built for 500,000 cars a year that is currently making about 80,000 is also a plus.

    However, most engineers are terrible at making schedules and Elon Musk is worse than most. I learned the hard way to make an accurate schedule, you need to break things down into small tasks, on the order of a day or two, assign an estimated time for each task, add up all those times, and assume each person only works a 40 hour work week, then pad the total by 20%. If you do all that, you will be done almost exactly when your schedule said you'd be done. Everyone will end up working more than 40 hours a week for at least part of the project too. Working 50-60 hours or more is your contingency dealing with the inevitable things that crop up that take longer than you thought.

    Elon Musk is good at breaking things down into small tasks, assigning estimates and rolling it all back up. The problem is he tends to assign the most optimistic times to each task, doesn't build in any contingencies, and works on the assumption everyone is working 60 hours a week instead of 40. When the inevitable problems crop up, the schedule slides.

    It takes a lot of discipline from top to bottom to make schedules like I did above. It's painful to go to your manager and tell them that's what it's going to take and just about all managers will push back. The one time I was allowed to go through that whole process on a large project, we finished within a week of when I said we would. All the other parts of the project allowed their managers to push them into shorter schedules with fewer resources than they needed and everyone but my part had problems and delays. In the end my part of the project was the only milestone that hit even a year within the target.

    This was when I was at Boeing when they were developing the 777. In the end the plane ended up 2-3 years late and $1 billion over budget. One guy in my group was responsible for $100 million of that cost overrun.

    If Tesla is careful and focused, they have a shot at getting the Model 3 into production by the end of 2017, But even established car companies with much larger R&D budgets than Tesla, better established supply networks, and lots of factories take at least as long as 1 1/2 years to get a car from the prototype stage into production. Look at the new Lincoln Continental due out this fall. It was a year ago Lincoln showed off the concept/prototype at a car show. Press reports I read at the time pointed out that the concept they showed off was much closer to production ready than most concept cars, but it won't be available until this fall.

    Getting from where they are now to a production car is no trivial task, even if all the tech is well established.
     
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  17. plankeye

    plankeye That Vegan EV Guy

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    I
    I totally agree.
     
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  18. Breezy

    Breezy Member

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    I don't think that being a few months late (very likely) is make or break for Tesla. Pushing a large number of cars out the door that aren't really ready for production would be what breaks them.
     
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  19. dsm363

    dsm363 Roadster + Sig Model S

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    The car looks like it is almost ready. It's the manufacturing line and service centers that need to be built out to get this launched it seems.
     
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  20. sandpiper

    sandpiper Active Member

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    The body, and I suspect much of the mechanical looks pretty close. I suspect that that interior isn't even close.
     
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