Speculation: Tesla's Plan for Supercharger Congestion

[Fiver]

Oh, the FUD is strong with this one, and it's not even May the 4th.
<SNIP>

Saving this post for 4 years from now when everyone is complaining about how Tesla's are really hard to long distance travel in because of supercharger congestion.

Unless somehow the 3 has a radically new way to charge much faster.

 

[aronth5]

In 2-3 years I expect most Model S's sold with owners expecting to do long distance travel will have a range of 350+ miles once Tesla leverages the new battery size and improved chemistry. I'm sure Tesla has done some supercharger usage modeling factoring in longer range and its potential to reduce supercharger use. Not a magic bullet but reducing the number of S/X owners who require supercharges is important. Of course that doesn't address the congestion caused by the Model 3 with shorter range but it will help.

 

[TaoJones]

Saving this post for 4 years from now when everyone is complaining about how Tesla's are really hard to long distance travel in because of supercharger congestion.

Unless somehow the 3 has a radically new way to charge much faster.

Love it. In 48 months, if *everyone* is in fact complaining, then I will deliver to you a proper ale when you make the pilgrimage* to that year's Sound of Silence Black Hills Tesla Rally in Custer, SD. You'll need it after all that really hard congested travel from the east coast.

If, on the other hand, your trip is 95% hassle-free as I predict, then you are free to direct a similarly proper ale in my direction at said event (search for related threads here and at TM - Tesla "Sound of Silence" Road Trip to the Black Hills in Custer, South Dakota - Update #2 | Tesla Motors). I will be at Bitter Ester's.

* Everyone should attend this event, now in its third year, at least once. 48 EV charging stations in a town of 1500 in the shadow of Crazy Horse NM and Mount Rushmore - pretty impressive.

 

[SageBrush]

Just because newer cars are released, doesn't mean older cars disappear.

The SC build-out up to now was mostly geographic coverage, not local demand. It is not rational to compare that past to a different future.

I figure I will use a SC once or twice a year.

 

[Canuck]

Saving this post for 4 years from now when everyone is complaining about how Tesla's are really hard to long distance travel in because of supercharger congestion.

I can get water and hay everywhere for my horse. Those new automobiles need gas. Mark my words, everyone will be complaining about how it's really hard to long distant travel in a motor vehicle. I go anywhere with my horse and buggy!

Oops!... damn human ingenuity...

Initially, gasoline had to be obtained at “bulk depots” located outside of the cities. Fuel was provided in cans or other containers, but ultimately wholesalers transported gasoline in horsedrawn tank trucks to commercial customers in towns for sale to motorists. In 1905 the Automobile Gasoline Company in St. Louis employed a gravity-fed tank for fueling cars and opened the first “gas station.” Petroleum giant Standard Oil opened its first station in Seattle in 1907. As automobile sales increased, the demand for fuel led to a more systematic way of delivering it, and in 1914 Standard Oil of California opened a chain of 34 homogeneous stations along the West Coast. Major oil companies moved quickly to secure their own gas dealers, made possible by technical advances in gasoline pumps. Soon pumps were being installed not only at the new service stations, but in front of hardware stores, feed companies, livery stables, and a variety of other retailers.

 

[Discoducky]

Looks like a cure for congestion might be coming soon! A bit hidden in the AP2.0 post is this tidbit: Autopilot

For Superchargers that have automatic charge connection enabled, you will not even need to plug in your vehicle.

 

[andrewket]

Just looking at the pieces of technology already in place, I think Tesla has a cunning plan for supercharger use. Some superchargers get very congested especially during peak travel times. As the fleet grows, Tesla will have to expand the network, but I think they have a plan to help maximize use of the existing superchargers when things get crowded.

Tesla previewed the auto plug in robot a year or so back. They also got summon to work with recent releases of the code. I think the cunning plan is to use the technology in auto-park and summon for a more practical use. With theses technologies, Tesla's cars will be able to be parked in line for a supercharger, the owner can go off and do something and the car will do the following:
1) When it's the car's turn, it will pull itself into a supercharger spot
2) The robotic arm will plug the car in automatically
3) If the car has awareness of how many cars are in line, it may just charge enough to get to the next supercharger with some reserve, or it may charge up as high as the owner wanted it to charge.
4) When done, the car will unplug itself and move to a non-supercharger parking place nearby and wait for its owner to return.

This will maximize throughput on crowded superchargers and the owners don't have to be there to move the car. Auto-park is becoming common on a lot of cars, so that technology isn't all the far out there, but summon is pretty unique to Tesla and I thought it was kind of an odd add on on top of autopilot. But it makes perfect sense if it will be used with the next generation of superchargers.

I could be wrong, but Tesla has all the pieces to make this happen. I'm surprised I haven't seen anyone else suggest it as a possibility before now (though someone may have and I missed it).

I believe everything you've said above is true. I'll add: The owner doesn't necessarily need to be there at all. The car can drop you off somewhere a few miles away and then drive itself to the SuC, charge, and then drive back to pick you up. This means that SuC's can be located in very inconvenient (for humans) and CHEAP locations.

 

[cpa]

I do not disagree with any of the above. However, as of today, there are over 100,000 Teslas on the road without this feature. And some, like mine, are 2-3 years old. I am not going to pony up a hefty 5-figure sum to retrofit my car.

So, what happens when those with old cars compete with those with the newest technology? Will Tesla split the Superchargers to restrict access for those of us who have older cars? Will there be a gate with a "take a number" machine to give us our place in the queue?

Or will Tesla revoke its "free, for life" slogan once they start putting these latest models on the road?

Sometimes the information that is unsaid that is potentially as important as what is said.

 

[TexasEV]

I believe everything you've said above is true. I'll add: The owner doesn't necessarily need to be there at all. The car can drop you off somewhere a few miles away and then drive itself to the SuC, charge, and then drive back to pick you up. This means that SuC's can be located in very inconvenient (for humans) and CHEAP locations.

I strongly doubt that will happen. It's not convenient for the driver, takes longer, and the current locations are already cheap. Tesla pays no rent or only token rent at most locations.

 

[TacC]

I do not disagree with any of the above. However, as of today, there are over 100,000 Teslas on the road without this feature. And some, like mine, are 2-3 years old. I am not going to pony up a hefty 5-figure sum to retrofit my car.

So, what happens when those with old cars compete with those with the newest technology? Will Tesla split the Superchargers to restrict access for those of us who have older cars? Will there be a gate with a "take a number" machine to give us our place in the queue?

Or will Tesla revoke its "free, for life" slogan once they start putting these latest models on the road?

Sometimes the information that is unsaid that is potentially as important as what is said.

I don't think current owners will get the short end of the stick.

Most SCs already have well-defined queueing behavior that the cars can mimic autonomously. I presume this is easier to engineer than most of the autonomous driving that the cars will accomplish.