How many years ago was that? Please, give me a break... I have real world daily data and lots of fellow owners with the same great experiences. It has been the best car and best sales/service experience we have ever had - hands down.
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Still worth getting a Model 3 if Electricity costs more than Gas?
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How many years ago was that? Please, give me a break... I have real world daily data and lots of fellow owners with the same great experiences. It has been the best car and best sales/service experience we have ever had - hands down.
Sean Wagner
Member
Thank you. The data seemed somehow off to me, but without precise references, a hunch is just a hunch. So:
A) Nowhere on that page is there a date, and with the rapid changes in the last couple of years, that matters a lot. The source file is named "renew_prod_2009", though.
B) I picked California to compare with some fairly recent data.
According to the energy.gov link, it's [in-state generation, nuclear excluded]:
Renewable sources provide 24.38% of California's energy production, totaling 635,062 billion BTUs.
This is 8.43% of total U.S. renewable energy production.
While 2016 data from Total System Electric Generation returns
Renewables 55,300 27.90% [for in-state generation, nuclear excluded].
We can draw our own conclusions, I think.
dgpcolorado
high altitude member
While a lot of the early cars have had drive unit replacements, mine included, the problem is increasing noise over months and the replacement warranty service can be scheduled at the owner's convenience. Drive train failures that leave cars stranded are quite uncommon from what I've read here. Nevertheless, I have had more warranty service issues than any previous car, although that is just one anecdotal observation. I would hope that the Model 3, being designed to be simpler and with the experience of the S and X before it, will have a better track record for warranty service needs.
h2sux2
Member
Geez... SD electricity IS expensive, and at some point it might not be worth it (from the strictly financial POV). However, here are some details worth noting:
- Consider lowest TOU 22c/kWh (at night?), not the average. So that's like $1316/yr on your calculation. Way cheaper than the $2117.65/yr on gas. (as comparison I pay 10c on PG&E TOU plan in the Bay Area.).
I put this spreadsheet together a while ago to help people calculate running costs between cars:
EV Cost per mile
- Supercharger costs 20c/kWh, so you charge there too and save more.
- TOU and Solar could work in your advantage. As you produce in semi-peak, and in summer in peak rate, but charge in off-peak. (buy low/sell high).
- gas prices are volatile. Not too long ago gas was like $5/ga. While electricity could become cheaper with more solar, wind and gas coming in.
- Perks like credits/rebates, HOV stickers, cheaper tolls should be taken into account.
- less maintenance for sure on an EV than an ICE
- And in case you care for the environment... gas won't become any greener, but electricity does get greener every day.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
SDG&E rates are crazy high. They're changing TOU peak demand period in the summer to 4-9pm at $0.54 per kWh. So if you go with solar make sure you face your panels west or possibly even a bit northwest.
It seems like there is serious risk of a "death spiral" in San Diego. These crazy rates push more and more people to solar which lowers SDG&E revenue which they use to justify more rate increases. Not sure how this is all going to play out.
ℬête Noire
Active Member
FYI, that translates to about
That's what is so striking to me reading this from the sidelines. I'm about to pull the trigger on a grid-tie solar for my house, that's full use replacement save for EV charging, and that's in the face of right a retail residential market price of about 9.5c/kWh for power off the grid 24hr/7days. Mind you I'm probably around break-even on that solar but I consider it arbitrage for going BEV (currently estimated 700kWh/month, that'll rise when we go EV with both vehicles). Still the economic forces there pushing people to solar must be massive, even if you have to pay for some time-delay storage.
P.S. I'm TX so I'm not particularly concerned about how it'd develop here as West TX wind that naturally complements solar is so prevalent that already overnight wholesale spot market prices are VERY low (because of current subsidies prices actually go somewhat negative occasionally), and this is reflected to an extent in retail pricing contracts that are are already available.
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South, south west are good. West is okay, but north west is not good at all. The sun is never north of San Diego and that will significantly reduce your production earlier in the day.
You can still generate a lot of power and get credits at the off peak rate ($0.286) from 8am-4pm, you don't want to sacrifice that production just to get a little extra in the evening. Also, all winter rate period (November-May) peak and off peak are nearly the same ($0.247 vs $0.238), and south facing panels will be much higher production than west during those months.
The new TOU times are going to definitely push more people to get PowerWalls.
are most cities like San Diego, where there's pretty much only one supplier of electricity? isn't that a monopoly?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
California has regions with municipal utilities (public) and regions with investor owned utilities (private). The private utilities are much more expensive. As far as I know all are monopolies. How would you put up multiple sets of electric lines?
California electric bill shock: Private firms charge way more than public utilities
Who could have predicted that "deregulating" the market to give private companies a monopoly on electrical delivery would raise prices? haha
Sandiegodoug
Active Member
Sdge just asked the public utilities commission for another 11% increase.
Guess their investors not earning enough.
Guess their investors not earning enough.
So from 4:00 to 9:00 when I get home from work I'm supposed to light a candle and read a book?
Switching to TOU just moves the expense from charging to appliances and electronics but either way I will consume the same amount of overall power. It "might" help but if I figure my KW usage now being shifted to a higher tier my bill still goes up That's why I estimated using the average cost (low and high). Also, I do not have natural gas available so everything in my house except the furnace is electric which just makes things worse. For the furnace we have a propane tank.Not ridiculous, having an EV should offset the cot of the vehicle by saving you on gas in the long run. Otherwise the appeal will not be out there for most of the population to switch to a more expensive type of fuel and pay more for the car the consumes it.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think there SDG&E allows you to install a second meter for an EV to run TOU for just that circuit. It's all probably moot anyway as it sounds like they're just going to move everyone, not just solar customers, to TOU eventually.
Teslas are still luxury cars. You have to compare them to performance luxury cars like the BMW 340i for the cost of ownership to make any sense. Tesla maintenance costs are currently much higher than most gas cars ($600 a year). Hopefully the Model 3 will be lower maintenance than the Model S.
Teslas are still luxury cars. You have to compare them to performance luxury cars like the BMW 340i for the cost of ownership to make any sense. Tesla maintenance costs are currently much higher than most gas cars ($600 a year). Hopefully the Model 3 will be lower maintenance than the Model S.
Sean Wagner
Member
Just like other countries do: unbundle the last mile and set it up as a shared resource.
There are places that have healthy competition for the internet and electricity.
Dan Detweiler
Active Member
Wow, new to this thread and I am absolutely appalled at the electricity rates you guys are being forced to endure. We have our share of issues living in Georgia but I certainly can't complain about my $.09 kWh rate.
So sorry you guys are having to deal with this.
Dan
So sorry you guys are having to deal with this.
Dan
I am looking at my drive to work with the loaner MS. It is about 125 miles round trip. My average in the last 1000 miles is 315 Wh/mile. So I am using about 40kWh daily and it will probably takes about 45kWh on the electric meter to charge 40kWh because of the energy loss. So my daily "fuel" would be around 45 x 0.12 (TOU lowest rate) = $5.40. To break even on fuel cost, I would need to get a car with about 75 miles per gallon with the current gas price. If OP has to pay $0.30 or more per kWh, then it would be like even with a car around 30 miles per gallon. I think I will still get the M3 even if it has the same fuel cost as a 30 mpg car. It is really nice that you don't have to stop at a gas station. I drive 30000 miles a year. On average I stop to fill up around every 350 miles. So I need to stop at gas stations about 86 times a year just on my car. With detour to to the gas station, and time spend on gassing up, it will be about 8 to 10 minutes extra each time... so about 11 to 14 hours a year spent in gas station that I don't have to spend.
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News story just promo'd on our local CBS station said that "think days of high gas prices is a thing of the past? You'd be wrong!, news at noon."
Found this online video of the story they ran early this a.m. $4 again....
Bay Area Gas Prices Going Up; May Reach $4 A Gallon Soon
Found this online video of the story they ran early this a.m. $4 again....
Bay Area Gas Prices Going Up; May Reach $4 A Gallon Soon
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
That is incorrect. On the solstice the sun sets at 299 degrees. At the equinox it sets at directly west.
SunCalc sun position- und sun phases calculator
54 cents vs. 23 cents is a huge difference. You can get hourly data from PVwatts and run the numbers but I think a slight NW orientation is probably optimal for San Diego TOU rates.
P.S. I used to think the same thing about the sun until I lived at the beach and noticed it setting to the north
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SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
True, but solar insolation is much lower when the sun is rising or setting. IIRC is has to due with the longer path through the atmosphere; and typically people will not have the panel angle optimized for the low sun angle. If you are interested, PVWATTs will show you hourly data.That is incorrect. On the solstice the sun sets at 299 degrees. At the equinox it sets at directly west.
SunCalc sun position- und sun phases calculator
54 cents vs. 23 cents is a huge difference. You can get hourly data from PVwatts and run the numbers but I think a slight NW orientation is probably optimal for San Diego TOU rates.
P.S. I used to think the same thing about the sun until I lived at the beach and noticed it setting to the north
That is incorrect. On the solstice the sun sets at 299 degrees. At the equinox it sets at directly west.
SunCalc sun position- und sun phases calculator
54 cents vs. 23 cents is a huge difference. You can get hourly data from PVwatts and run the numbers but I think a slight NW orientation is probably optimal for San Diego TOU rates.
P.S. I used to think the same thing about the sun until lived at the beach and noticed the it setting to the north
Wow. I did not realize it sets that far north. I guess since it's south at Noon I assumed it stay south.
But the solstice is June 21st. Summer TOU rates are June though October, so a good part of that will be south of San Diego. Plus the evening sun is lower and production drops quickly even for west facing panels. You are reducing production significantly for 8 hours of the day to gain slightly for the last 4.
And all winter NW will give you significantly less production. My 270W west facing panels put out less per day than my 240W south facing panels in the winter. Annual total production is also important.
A Powerwall (especially if you can get the California SGIP rebate and federal text credits) might be a better long term solution. It makes the system mostly immune to shifting TOU hours. Eventually they could change to 5-9 or even 6-9 and then even west facing panels will not be able to offset enough credits. A Powerwall or two should be able to offset 100% of the peak rates no mater when they are. Plus for any peak rate hours when the sun is up, the Powerwall can cover your usage and 100% of the solar production can go to the grid for peak rate credit.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
Beating this topic to death but:
PVwatts, 20 degree panel angle, 4kW system, San Diego
180 degrees 6438kWh (South)
270 degrees 5745kWh (West)
300 degrees 5245kWh (WNW)
Much less loss than one might expect. I'll leave it as an exercise to the reader to plug the hourly data in to the SDG&E TOU rates. haha.
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