@IngTH has done a nice job posting here, thanks for that, you have put forth some of the better tech data around why they might be doing this.
For any that haven't see this post / video yet it would be worth watching.
Battery Degradation Scientifically Explained
@EV-Tech Exp
Can you pop into this thread and take a look around? (if you haven't already)
I currently have a 2013 S with 1014114-00-B and 49K on the clock. I only procured it from Tesla CPO a couple of months ago. I have no idea on the history or usage. I did a longer trip last weekend that should have exposed the car to enough abuse to get the degradation algorithms going if they were going to and didn't get a noticeable degradation. (I don't have hard data but rated range looks close enough)
I also live where it gets cold and this car was local, but it is very possible it wasn't used significantly during the winter based on the condition of the steel bits underneath.
I am going to
speculate:
Based on what I can gather, cold/cool battery temps when supercharging sounds like a real issue due to Lithium Plating. Thinking about where I have seen the temp probes in the modules (in the middle) it makes sense the the cells closer to the edge of the pack would be much cooler than the central cells when doing pack heating. Putting this in place with winter cold soaked super charging would imply that the inner module cells would be at temp, but the outer edge cells wouldn't be yet, causing potential issues in those outer cells. The corner modules would have it worse of course. I believe the fluid connections are in the rear of the pack, which implies that front of the pack would be the last to warm up, and since the front is also the most exposed while driving it could be it wouldn't stay warm, however the temp sensors could report all is well due to their central location. Pull into a super charger and those front edge cells get the bad combination of low temp and high currents. As discussed, it doesn't even have to be Chicago winter for this to be an issue, anything below 15C could be a problem, and 10C (50F) sounds like it becomes a fair bit more likely. Parked in a garage with still air for a while before charging starts would likely reduce the issues around temp imbalances while making the pack heating more balanced and effective. Still though heat transfer will be an issue and certain cells will always lag, hopefully just less so.
To carry this thought one step further, the temp sensors in the middle of the modules during Super Charging demand chilled below ambient water where the edge cells may still be cold soaked potentially maintaining the issue all the way through the charge cycle. Based on seeing affected cars with locations all over the country I have to believe that it doesn't have to be Chicago cold to be an issue, but the data provided is that 50F is cool enough to substantially raise the chances of plating.
Data also provided in this thread leads me to believe that Lithium Plating can be detected during the charge cycle, AND could trigger voltage to rise to 4.2 even though the battery is around 80% full. Once the charging current is removed the effect goes away and the voltage drops to normal 80% levels. Alternately they are detecting the plating by seeing the voltage characteristics and, depending on the severity, trigger a cut off voltage that they feel is safe.
That was
speculation. Please treat it as such.