They are incrementing based on part count and the photos do catch numbers written on the assemblies.
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More on this from Space News:
Musk emphasizes progress in Starship production over testing - SpaceNews
Musk emphasizes progress in Starship production over testing - SpaceNews
First time I have seen an aerial view of the SpaceX facility at Boca Chica. It’s not as large as I envisioned it.
Yeah, it's compact, though that image doesn't include the launch/ landing pads and tank farm.
Where are those located? I did not realize that the vehicles had to be moved such a long distance from the manufacturing area to the test stands.
Way way down the road toward the beach. About 2 miles away.
Here is a fly over video with pic in comments.
Nikxice
Active Member
Some cold water here. Reading that article highlights Elon's overly optimistic schedule for Starship. It puts the last year in perspective. Here's what Elon offered up in Boca Chica last September. "Musk, with a Starship prototype standing behind him, said that the vehicle would fly to an altitude of 20 kilometers in one or two months.“I think we want to try to reach orbit in less than six months,” he said, a schedule he said at the time was accurate to “within a few months.”" His latest estimate for an orbital attempt is "probably" next year. He also mentioned that before flying humans on-board, Starship will have flown hundreds of missions. Yes, hundreds. Eventually sure, but for the dearMoon project and friends, 2023 might not be your year.
Its pretty hard to reconcile that. Even starlink at 40k sats--by far the most ambitious space project on record today--at 40k sats (which won't happen but that's another topic) represents in round numbers, ~100 Starships launches. Even if we pretend refurbishment is another 40k sats so another ~100 launches, that's 200 launches in lets call it a very optimistic 10 years.
There's nothing else that comes close in scale and nothing that's going to happen anytime soon that would necessitate even tens of Starlink launches.
Thanks, I did not realize the launch area was so far away from the production facilities, but that certainly makes sense.
Typical Elon. Wildly optimistic timeline. I know it is important to set challenging goals, but one would think at his age he would be a bit more realistic.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
This is what I love about Elon. Yes, you can use earlier comments and newer comments to throw cold water on the newer schedule predictions.
Personally, I largely ignore early schedule comments relative to early and/or unproven technology and think of them as more like internal targets that most every other human or company don't talk about (except internally). Or alternatively, when a project planner builds the 50% confidence project plan, then the Elon Target is roughly what they get to (50% confidence = everything goes right; it doesn't with early stage technology like this). I guess we could, generously, say that by making them public, now the team(s) know it's out there and will push to make them actually happen.
But the larger context, even if he is "missing" schedule targets right and left, those are Elon schedule targets. And thus the end result - Elon and his companies are doing stuff so far ahead of everybody else it's astounding. Even though they're missing targets right and left, and for plenty of people, that means that Elon can't be trusted (or at least; his schedule comments can't be trusted).
I'll take Elon's missed targets over Ford's committed and made schedule every day and twice on Sunday.
Perhaps he is including the test/development program missions in this number. I can imagine it will take tens of sub orbital missions to explore and perfect the skydiver 'flight' and landing manoeuvres - seems like there may even be 10 or so 150M hops to perfect the launch procedure. After the sub orbital missions there will be orbital missions to test re-entry and then the test of in-orbit refuelling.
Add into the mix potential intercontinental test and demonstration flights.
Super Heavy will presumably also have quite a few test hops although one would expect this to be easier as it will reuse the techniques already perfected on Falcon 9.
So there is probably an element of hyperbole but with some justification and perhaps with the intent of saying there is a lot of stuff to be done before they get to manned flight and the underlying starship technology will be thoroughly tested by that point.
SmartElectric
Active Member
Access to space has been limited to big players, it's getting more attainable and cheaper, who knows what other business beyond low earth orbit internet will be enabled by this revolution (Starship + Superheavy).
The rail road opened up two nations (Canada and US) a long time ago, before that, isolation was the rule ...
Yeah agree on the dev flights and appreciate some use of hyperbole. But...honestly, even 100 flights sounds pretty excessive. That's basically what it took a SpaceX with Falcon.
Regulars here will groan at my broken record on this one, but SpaceX is a singularity in the space industry relative to their conviction and action. Even the "newspace" players can't come close in price-performance-speed, because they're not using the same build-it-and-they-will-come math that Elon uses. As such, short-mid term--or, in numbers, for at least the next decade--we're simply not going to see an orders of magnitude growth in lifted mass that would be necessary for Starship to grow much beyond Falcon launch rates. We'll send more stuff to space for sure, but not a ridiculously larger amount of stuff.
Another Starship hop this morning! Basically the same flight parameters as last time, but still exciting. 
Another Starship hop this morning! Basically the same flight parameters as last time, but still exciting.
2-in-a-row!
Elon Musk did tweet after the previous one that they'd continue doing small hops for a while.
e-FTW
New electron smell
Love the power-slide at liftoff!
”Just another day at the office, making water towers fly.”
Also: nice remotely operated fire hose!
”Just another day at the office, making water towers fly.”
Also: nice remotely operated fire hose!
SpaceX files on 9-11-2020 with FCC for 20km hop tests
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) 1401-EX-ST-2020 FCC Experimental License
QUOTE:
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous grant 1041-EX-ST-2020 and is necessary to authorize Starship Prototype suborbital test vehicle communications for Medium Altitude Hops Tests_2 (max altitude 20km) from the Boca Chica launch pad, and the experimental recoveries following the suborbital hops. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.
Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation: Experimental med altitude hops and recovery tests of the Starship Prototype suborbital test vehicle from Boca Chica TX.
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX) 1401-EX-ST-2020 FCC Experimental License
QUOTE:
Please explain in the area below why an STA is necessary:
This STA uses information from previous grant 1041-EX-ST-2020 and is necessary to authorize Starship Prototype suborbital test vehicle communications for Medium Altitude Hops Tests_2 (max altitude 20km) from the Boca Chica launch pad, and the experimental recoveries following the suborbital hops. Trajectory data will be provided directly to NTIA, USAF, and NASA. Launch licensing authority is FAA Office of Commercial Space Transportation.
Purpose of Operation
Please explain the purpose of operation: Experimental med altitude hops and recovery tests of the Starship Prototype suborbital test vehicle from Boca Chica TX.
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