Supercharger - Quartzsite, AZ

[gnuarm]

Quartzsite has never been an issue for all those years. I have taken this route countless times since 2014. Only recently since the Model 3 is out in large numbers has it become a bottle neck. The main problem is that it's difficult to skip if full. The same issue was in Barstow a few years ago when the line was 24 cars deep. Tesla added more stalls, built Baker and Yermo. That's what needs to happen between LA and Phoenix. They need to add more sites in Blythe or Chiriaco Summit. Or find a new spot in Quartzsite.

The bigger issue is how long will Tesla be able to keep up building enough chargers. It's a difficult task. 356 days of the year it's no problem, but those 10 or so other days we need twice as many chargers. Hard to justify double capacity for a very small amount of time. I don't know what the best solution is.

Yeah, having lines on the busy holiday times is expected I suppose, but 15 car waiting line??? This is the single biggest concern in the way of widespread adoption of EVs, charging and fear of being stranded. To the people who have basically taken a leap of faith and bought EVs, this is not so great a concern. For those who have only thought about buying EVs or not really given it much thought at all, this will be a major barrier to making a purchase.

If you thought charging along this route was bad this year, wait until they build another 250,000 model 3s for next year! Hopefully many of those will be sold overseas where most of the new chargers are being built. But then the model Y is set for introduction in 2020 which is only a year off. Will they be able to get enough charging installed in the right places to prevent even wider holiday congestion? No one likes traffic congestion. I'm willing to bet an even bigger concern will be charging congestion.

Tesla faced production hell, then logistics hell. Now they face charging network hell.

 

[tomas]

Agree, quartzite not a place to get stuck, and not shocking it has become a logjam. but you can get world class jerky!

 

[NineDollars]

I was here December 15th omw east. That broken charger was already broken when I got there. It seems it is still broken heh.. does anyone know if there's usually a line in the middle of the night?

On a side note. Alot of people are frustrated that it's overloaded here. The thing is this spot is literally dead every other day of the year as far as I remember. They should focus on expanding areas that's constantly overloaded. Tesla does have portable urban chargers. Not sure why they haven't brought them out. If anyone has been to Indio, they brought the portable charger there. Ran extension cables for power and just covered the cable so no one trips on it. They anticipated Indio but neglected quartzite for at least two weeks now given it was broken when I was there two weeks ago.

 

[wraithnot]

We hit Quartzsite today on the return trip and we drug ourselves out of bed earlier than normal to try and make it before an epic line formed. That was a good decision because we got a spot without a wait and a line formed within a few minutes after we arrived. I kept tabs on the available stalls as we were driving there and then I kept tabs on the line until we walked over to the rock shop. Here is the data I got- I was surprised how quickly things went from a few stalls available to a line:

10:03 am 2 stalls available
10:24 am: 4 stalls available
10:41 am: 4 stalls available
10:55 am: 2 stalls available
11:06 am: 1 stall available
11:06 am: 1 stall available
11:10 am: 0 stalls available
11:19 am: 3 stalls available
11:27 am: 0 stalls available (we got the last spot right before 11:27)
11:31 am: 2 cars in line
11:34 am: 4 cars in line
11:31 am: 2 cars in line
11:44 am: 5 cars in line
11:52 am: 4 cars in line
11:54 am: 5 cars in line

 

[Bet TSLA]

Now they face charging network hell.

I don't think so. Next year this location won't be a problem. Tesla is building out superchargers like crazy now that they're profitable. And with the fleet mix shifting toward paid supercharging the buildout will be self-sustaining, so it will just speed up.

There will always be ephemeral hot spots. Anybody who went to the recent total eclipse knows how that went (and there were huge lines at gas stations too, at least those that had gas available). But it will be less and less of an issue. Remember too that full self driving will change everything, so there's a limited time horizon in any case (from one year to ten years depending on your level of pessimism).

 

[gnuarm]

I don't think so. Next year this location won't be a problem. Tesla is building out superchargers like crazy now that they're profitable. And with the fleet mix shifting toward paid supercharging the buildout will be self-sustaining, so it will just speed up.

There will always be ephemeral hot spots. Anybody who went to the recent total eclipse knows how that went (and there were huge lines at gas stations too, at least those that had gas available). But it will be less and less of an issue. Remember too that full self driving will change everything, so there's a limited time horizon in any case (from one year to ten years depending on your level of pessimism).

Actually they aren't. If you check the chart at supercharge.info you will find the rate or growth has been relatively level for years. It started to take off the second half of 2017 but flattened out again in 2018 and even dropped more during the second half. A small spurt at the end of 2018 kept the year from being poor.

Considering the production rate of EVs at Tesla has grown by 250%, you might expect a big higher growth rate in Superchargers than we are seeing. Presently the availability of Superchargers is the only reason why Tesla can sell the number of cars they do. If they don't keep ahead of the power curve and head off three hour charges their charging will get a bad rep and sales will suffer. This is one of those things that will be a major point of focus by may people who may want to consider EVs, but are held back by the newness. That is going to be the majority of potential buyers. There are other factors like service centers, but charging is at the head of the list.

 

[tmoz]

Charging is something new to people, and most without EV experience do not understand it. When I showed my cousin (who lives in Laguna Hills) the SC map, his first response was that there were no SCs near his house. I had to offer the explanation that you don't need them near your house because you wake up in the morning with a full tank, it is only for long trips that you need them. I've had similar comments and questions made and posed, which tells me that charging is a new way of thinking.

 

[tmoz]

It is pretty barren between Quartzsite and Buckeye (~100 mi), it wouldn't make any sense to put in another charger between them.
Blythe would make more sense as there might be some north-south traffic that could take advantage of that charger.
Faster charging rates would help keep the lines shorter too. I'm not sure I'd want more than 120 kW flowing into my battery pack too often though - that is a massive amount of power. I suppose if it is engineered correctly, I shouldn't have to worry.

 

[NineDollars]

We hit Quartzsite today on the return trip and we drug ourselves out of bed earlier than normal to try and make it before an epic line formed. That was a good decision because we got a spot without a wait and a line formed within a few minutes after we arrived. I kept tabs on the available stalls as we were driving there and then I kept tabs on the line until we walked over to the rock shop. Here is the data I got- I was surprised how quickly things went from a few stalls available to a line:

10:03 am 2 stalls available
10:24 am: 4 stalls available
10:41 am: 4 stalls available
10:55 am: 2 stalls available
11:06 am: 1 stall available
11:06 am: 1 stall available
11:10 am: 0 stalls available
11:19 am: 3 stalls available
11:27 am: 0 stalls available (we got the last spot right before 11:27)
11:31 am: 2 cars in line
11:34 am: 4 cars in line
11:31 am: 2 cars in line
11:44 am: 5 cars in line
11:52 am: 4 cars in line
11:54 am: 5 cars in line

Thanks for this info! It's going to help alot. Hopefully I arrive there later in the night

 

[Bet TSLA]

Actually they aren't. If you check the chart at supercharge.info...

Actually they are. The scale of the charts is not all that useful for seeing anything but really big differences. The 40+/80+ (construction/permit) numbers are as high as they've ever been. And I can't remember a time they've added 39 new locations in a month as they have this month (well, maybe once or twice when they added huge numbers in China all at once). They're smokin'!

 

[gnuarm]

Actually they are. The scale of the charts is not all that useful for seeing anything but really big differences. The 40+/80+ (construction/permit) numbers are as high as they've ever been. And I can't remember a time they've added 39 new locations in a month as they have this month (well, maybe once or twice when they added huge numbers in China all at once). They're smokin'!

I'm not sure what your numbers mean... 40+/80+. I'm not able to confirm that. There are presently 51 permits and 29 construction listed at supercharge.info.

You can mouse over and see exact numbers and dates on the charts. Check the numbers. Saying they are as high as they've ever been means little. The entire point is they can't continue at the rate they've been working to keep up with the cars on the road. The installations have to scale up dramatically to keep up. Maybe Tesla can do it, maybe not.

They were making less than 2000 EVs a week, now they are making 7000!!! It won't take long at all for the total number of EVs on the roads to double, in fact, it likely already has. According to the data I have (from wikipedia) at the start of 2018 there were approximately 250,000 Teslas total on the road. By now there should be nearly 500,000. Assuming every following quarter has the same production as Q3 2018, by the end of 2019 there will be approximately 800,000 Teslas on the highways.

Do you think the current rate of Supercharger installations will do the job??? I don't. Remember too, that a *lot* of new cars will be sold outside the US in the coming quarters. So they will need to ramp up Supercharger installations all over the world.

Finally, consider that going forward Tesla is building a Gigafactory to make cars for the Chinese market. In fact, the battle ground for dominance in the world EV market will be in China, not the US.

CEO Elon Musk revealed via Twitter that the company plans to break ground soon for construction of a new electric vehicle factory in Shanghai. Government filings show that the site will produce 250,000 vehicles per year for the Chinese market, including the upcoming Model Y sports utility vehicle.

The US was the spring board to get the Tesla company launched, but China will be the place where they have to compete with the rest of the world's auto makers. By 2020 the majority of their new chargers will be installed in China. So we may get a big boost in installations in 2019, but after that I don't see US installations growing at high rates. Tesla is limited in the amount they can spend on capital growth. Funds for this will come from profits. There is only so much profit in any given year and they still need to build more Gigafactories, like for the model Y. BTW, they make very little on the operation of the Superchargers themselves.

 

[gnuarm]

BTW, did anyone notice what appears to be a solar panel farm in Blythe? Just south of the highway off S. Intake Blvd. I suppose that means they have the power lines to charge a few cars for sure!

 

[Bet TSLA]

I'm not sure what your numbers mean... 40+/80+. I'm not able to confirm that. There are presently 51 permits and 29 construction listed at supercharge.info.

You're looking at US numbers rather than world. You're welcome to interpret the facts however you like, but try to get the facts right. The facts show that Tesla is building out their supercharger network as fast as they ever have. Whether that is fast enough is open to debate. You seem to be thinking it has to be linear with the number of vehicles on the road, but it's obvious that isn't true.

To get back on topic, I predict that next holiday season this supercharger will not experience long lines. The problem will be solved. We shall see.

 

[juliusa]

The entire point is they can't continue at the rate they've been working to keep up with the cars on the road.

Wrong.
1. You can't just look at the location count. Locations opening today (12 to 40 stalls) are often 2 to 4 times the number of stalls as locations they were opening two years ago (6 to 8 stalls).
2. Many routes are completed with enough capacity to handle twice the number of cars. Those routes won't need expansion for another year or two.

Very likely this site will be fine going forward. By the next peak travel period the capacity issue will likely have been addressed. A 20-stall location in Blythe would be nice.

 

[Dave EV]

Yeah, having lines on the busy holiday times is expected I suppose, but 15 car waiting line???

Keep in mind that a 15 car line has vastly different wait times depending on how many stalls there are. At Kettleman City with 40 stalls, 15 cars is only about a 15 minute wait. With 8 stalls, it's a 1h, 15 min wait. With 7, it's a 1h 26min. Just a couple more stalls can make a big difference once you heat peak loads.

I was here December 15th omw east. That broken charger was already broken when I got there. It seems it is still broken heh..

That is a problem, Tesla should not have stalls broken for more than a couple weeks anywhere, and definitely should have had it fixed before a travel weekend. A couple temporary stalls would have helped immmensely, too.

By next year they're going to need to double the size of Quartzite. And they're going to need to double the size of a lot of other sites, too.

Remember when Kettleman City was built and people thought 40 stalls would take a long time to fill up? Turns out Tesla better be planning more upgrades along I5 in California already because lines are starting to form there already on busy travel days.

 

[mociaf9]

This problem is also somewhat self-limiting. As more people have a "bad experience" (here used to denote a very long line/wait at superchargers) one year, they will be less likely to take the Tesla on that same yearly holiday drive for the next year. And they will warn others about the issue. So, if it seems to happen every year, new owners/drivers will also hear about the problem and be less likely to risk it even if they haven't personally had a "bad experience", etc., etc.

 

[Uncle Paul]

These statistics seem to make sense. Travelers get up in the mornings with full charges. They will routinely drive 3 or 4 hours and then look for a Supercharger. Everyone will arrive at once, causing congestion.

Hard to expect Tesla to currenty build enough Superchargers so there will never be a line anywhere, but to supply a relative efficient charging source for travelers and urban customers.

People will begin to figure this out, and perhaps stop early at a nearly empty charger and leap-frog over those busy lunch time stops. Others will start their day earlier to avoid popular and congested chargers when they are operating at peak capacity. This is similar to how most of us schedule our travel to avoid going through congested urban rush hour traffic on our typical road trips.

Help is perhaps on the way with the 3rd generation Superchargers which should provide quicker stops and higher through-put.

 

[gnuarm]

You're looking at US numbers rather than world. You're welcome to interpret the facts however you like, but try to get the facts right. The facts show that Tesla is building out their supercharger network as fast as they ever have. Whether that is fast enough is open to debate. You seem to be thinking it has to be linear with the number of vehicles on the road, but it's obvious that isn't true.

To get back on topic, I predict that next holiday season this supercharger will not experience long lines. The problem will be solved. We shall see.

"Open to debate"??? That is the whole issue!!! Being slightly faster is a long way from being fast enough. I don't get why you can't see that. Today I drove 25 miles to charge the car. When I returned to the car there was a wait line.

Your prediction isn't based on anything other than your faith in the company. The reality is if they build another bank of Superchargers in the next town or next to these and it is the same size, it won't be enough to cover the increase in cars on the road needing chargers and there will still be congestion. On the day in question, there were more cars in line waiting than there were charging. These cars spent more time waiting than they charged. "Faith" in the company is not much of a basis for thinking the problems will go away. The problem isn't static. It will require a doubling in the number of chargers in the congested areas.

In addition there needs to be a lot more chargers in the rest of the country because the coverage is poor at best. They need to have chargers much closer together in many areas of the country. The guy I chatted with at the charger in Gaithersburg when that station had cars waiting said that Tesla had better not get a reputation for being hard to charge for all the waiting. This is hugely true. These early days are vitally important to get the right image in front of the public so there isn't an uphill battle to convince drivers EVs won't be a problem.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Do you think the current rate of Supercharger installations will do the job??? I don't. Remember too, that a *lot* of new cars will be sold outside the US in the coming quarters. So they will need to ramp up Supercharger installations all over the world.

Finally, consider that going forward Tesla is building a Gigafactory to make cars for the Chinese market. In fact, the battle ground for dominance in the world EV market will be in China, not the US.

The US was the spring board to get the Tesla company launched, but China will be the place where they have to compete with the rest of the world's auto makers. By 2020 the majority of their new chargers will be installed in China. So we may get a big boost in installations in 2019, but after that I don't see US installations growing at high rates. Tesla is limited in the amount they can spend on capital growth. Funds for this will come from profits. There is only so much profit in any given year and they still need to build more Gigafactories, like for the model Y. BTW, they make very little on the operation of the Superchargers themselves.

It's obvious that they reduced their activity in 2018, but 2018Q4 construction activity was already back to where it was in 2017Q4. (Supercharge.info said 46 spotted under construction, the same as 2017Q4). They need to continue to increase the rate of installations, to match purchases. 2019Q1's rate will be a signal of their intent.

If a site's full cost is $250k (a high-side estimate), it would only take $250 per car to be able to install a new Supercharger location for each every 1,000 cars sold. That $250 is far less than the advertising spend per car of other manufacturers. The ultimate PAYG model of charging should help pay ongoing costs. I don't think it'll be too hard for Tesla to keep up.

 

[juliusa]

They need to continue to increase the rate of installations, to match purchases

Nah. They can keep up with demand opening a lot less than linear to number of cars sold.

1. They are opening larger installations (more stalls), so one opening now adds a lot more capacity that one opening in the past.
2. There are a lot of routes where there is huge excess capacity - they could double or triple the number of cars charging at those locations daily and still have plenty of capacity.