Supercharger - Quartzsite, AZ

[gnuarm]

It's obvious that they reduced their activity in 2018, but 2018Q4 construction activity was already back to where it was in 2017Q4. (Supercharge.info said 46 spotted under construction, the same as 2017Q4). They need to continue to increase the rate of installations, to match purchases. 2019Q1's rate will be a signal of their intent.

If a site's full cost is $250k (a high-side estimate), it would only take $250 per car to be able to install a new Supercharger location for each every 1,000 cars sold. That $250 is far less than the advertising spend per car of other manufacturers. The ultimate PAYG model of charging should help pay ongoing costs. I don't think it'll be too hard for Tesla to keep up.

I don't get where you are finding your numbers. Currently supercharge.info says there are 50 under permit and 30 under construction. Yesterday it was 51 permits and 29 construction. Where did you get the 46 construction number?

I'm not sure your numbers mean a lot to Tesla. Yeah, the comparison to advertising is good though. I made the point to someone today, that getting the chargers out in visible places would be good because it not only exposes the name, it is reassuring to have seen the chargers before you even think of buying the car seriously. People seeing explosive growth in the chargers will build the brand even more than seeing cars on the road. Hearing reports of congested chargers will be very counter productive to building the brand. Fortunately congestion in Quartzsite is a lot less visible to to the public in general than to Tesla owners.

I hope this is resolved soon.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

I don't get where you are finding your numbers. Currently supercharge.info says there are 50 under permit and 30 under construction. Yesterday it was 51 permits and 29 construction. Where did you get the 46 construction number?

I'm not sure your numbers mean a lot to Tesla. Yeah, the comparison to advertising is good though. I made the point to someone today, that getting the chargers out in visible places would be good because it not only exposes the name, it is reassuring to have seen the chargers before you even think of buying the car seriously. People seeing explosive growth in the chargers will build the brand even more than seeing cars on the road. Hearing reports of congested chargers will be very counter productive to building the brand. Fortunately congestion in Quartzsite is a lot less visible to to the public in general than to Tesla owners.

I hope this is resolved soon.

I used the date of change in the Changes tab to give the quarter in which it was found and calculated for all recorded changes. These dates are when first reported to Supercharge.info, and some are simply found under construction, or even only when open, but assuming consistency, we can use those dates to watch the trend.

In the table you can see the very low numbers for activity in 2018Q3, which has translated into lower number of openings in 2018Q4. 2019Q1 should be back to something closer to normality.

Quarter	Permit	Construction	Open
2018Q4	26	46	31
2018Q3	6	11	30
2018Q2	25	39	51
2018Q1	25	32	38
2017Q4	28	46	52
2017Q3	24	52	44
2017Q2	14	33	19
2017Q1	11	11	14
2016Q4	9	29	37
2016Q3	12	21	23
2016Q2	16	29	22
2016Q1	10	6	11
2015Q4	14	20	29
2015Q3	13	25	22
2015Q2	16	21	17
2015Q1	15	27	36
2014Q4	11	31	31
2014Q3	17	18	16
2014Q2	8	16	16
2014Q1	9	12	28
2013Q4	0	26	19

It's my impression that Tesla is doing a lot of filling in along existing routes, and that's a big deal because greater density of coverage _should_ mean better charging, as owners are more likely to be able to make optimal stops. If owners can avoid charging stops with significant tapering, the Superchargers will be able to serve more drivers. Shelby, IA and Altoona, IA are examples of fill-in that will help optimize stops on I-80.

The relevance to Quartzsite, AZ is that it's between Indio and Buckeye, which are 217.3 miles apart. That makes Quartzsite, AZ almost always an essential stop, and that will be the main reason it got choked up during a busy period. Tesla's findus map doesn't show anything happening between Indio, CA and Buckeye, AZ this year, but that doesn't mean they won't address it. Tesla will know how busy it got and I hope that they respond the way they have previously to other choke points.

 

[iridium]

Yeah, I just missed a major line there on the 29th.. first car in line and then it grew to like 10 very quickly. 1 stall was down and another was so slow it was useless, taking capacity to 6. From looking at the map, congestion seemed bad today (new years day), think it will ease up later in the week?

 

[Chuq]

1. They are opening larger installations (more stalls), so one opening now adds a lot more capacity that one opening in the past.
2. There are a lot of routes where there is huge excess capacity - they could double or triple the number of cars charging at those locations daily and still have plenty of capacity.

Also..
3. There are a lot of site expansions going on, which don't pop up on supercharge.info's "changes" tab. (The stall counts do change on the "charts" tab though, although these are only updated at the time they are noticed and reported to sc.info).

 

[iridium]

Any word on how the quartzite charger was today?

 

[hacer]

Only if you have a long range battery and drive slowly.

Also, charging to full at Indio would cause bottlenecks there.

They need to put another supercharger in Blythe. I'm guessing the only places between Indio and Buckeye that meet the proper electrical requirements are Blythe, Quartzsite and maybe Chiriaco Summit, so their options are limited.

During holiday traffic it becomes easier to find a big van or SUV to draft behind. This can significantly extend your range and might give you more flexibility as to where you must charge.

 

[PLUS EV]

Any word on how the quartzite charger was today?

I'm in the area so I checked capacity on the Nav a few times during the evening hours (5pm-10pm) and it was about half full most of the time. Currently 4 of 8 stalls available at 10pm for example. But if some of the stalls aren't working, that's closer to capacity than it may appear.

 

[gnuarm]

Nah. They can keep up with demand opening a lot less than linear to number of cars sold.

1. They are opening larger installations (more stalls), so one opening now adds a lot more capacity that one opening in the past.
2. There are a lot of routes where there is huge excess capacity - they could double or triple the number of cars charging at those locations daily and still have plenty of capacity.

You are so in denial. Yes, they are opening slightly larger stations than in the past, but this is maybe a 20% increase... MAYBE.

I had to drive 25 miles each way the other day to get to a Supercharger so I could do the local driving I needed. When I reached the charger in Gaithersburg, MD I was the seventh car in 12 chargers. When I returned an hour later with about 85% on my battery all 12 stalls were filled and there was a wait line. I was talking to a fellow who had just connected and he made the point I've made here several times. Tesla doesn't want to get a reputation for the chargers being congested. That would be terrible marketing.

On routes it's not much about capacity as convenience. If they are going to make charging EVs acceptable to the mass market, they will need charging stations 25 miles apart instead of 100 miles apart on the more densely populated routes. Sure, the open dessert is fine with a single station every 100 miles with 40 or 50 chargers, whatever it takes to prevent massive wait lines. But on the corridors where people travel across most of the country they will want to utilize the range they paid for. I have found many routes where I have to charge with nearly 100 miles still in the battery because I can't make it to the next charger. The mass market won't see that as acceptable.

Until now it has been early days for Teslas and EVs in general. Going forward the business plan needs to transition into a more mature presentation of the technology where consumers aren't concerned about having to wait in line for charging or being forced to charge four times to cover the same distance they would have only stopped once for gas. That simply won't sell EVs.

 

[gnuarm]

During holiday traffic it becomes easier to find a big van or SUV to draft behind. This can significantly extend your range and might give you more flexibility as to where you must charge.

Lol! I used to do this on a 90 cc motorcycle. I managed to get up to 70 mph once. I don't like being that close to the vehicle in front of me now. I set my adaptive cruise control to a distance of 7 and wonder why this is the only setting that doesn't go to 11.

 

[gnuarm]

I'm in the area so I checked capacity on the Nav a few times during the evening hours (5pm-10pm) and it was about half full most of the time. Currently 4 of 8 stalls available at 10pm for example. But if some of the stalls aren't working, that's closer to capacity than it may appear.

Being at capacity really isn't so bad. If you have to wait a few minutes to start charging that's not really a big deal is it? But a line 15 cars long and a wait of over an hour to even start charging is, even if it's only on the special occasions. Seems to me anyway. I'd be ticked if it happened to me.

 

[gnuarm]

I had to drive 25 miles each way the other day to get to a Supercharger so I could do the local driving I needed. When I reached the charger in Gaithersburg, MD I was the seventh car in 12 chargers. When I returned an hour later with about 85% on my battery all 12 stalls were filled and there was a wait line. I was talking to a fellow who had just connected and he made the point I've made here several times. Tesla doesn't want to get a reputation for the chargers being congested. That would be terrible marketing.

I forgot to mention. The sun of the guy I was talking to checked an there were NO model 3s at any of the 12 chargers. I think when I pulled out there may have been one waiting.

 

[juliusa]

You are so in denial.

No, you are inventing a problem. Your reply to the post that it was half full talking about being at capacity being not so bad is quite telling.

Yes, sucks to have to wait in traffic, for gas, or for a supercharger. No reason to throw out the baby with the occasionally-dirty bath water.

@PLUS EV - about how many times have you supercharged your car? How many different superchargers have you been to? About how many times have you had to wait for a stall?

I had to drive 25 miles each way the other day to get to a Supercharger so I could do the local driving I needed.

Sounds like a L2 charger issue to me. I stay at hotels with L2 chargers (or one close by), or if staying with friends charge at 120v which is plenty.

Until now it has been early days for Teslas and EVs in general.

Still is. 300k or so cars in the US. Only car with a reliable fast-charging network. Hotels and businesses just starting to have L2 chargers. More and more homes have L2 chargers.

Going forward the business plan needs to transition into a more mature presentation of the technology where consumers aren't concerned about having to wait in line for charging or being forced to charge four times to cover the same distance they would have only stopped once for gas. That simply won't sell EVs.

Yes, yes. The sky is falling. Tesla sales are about to end. They have "simply" been selling EVs as fast as they can make them, so don't worry about the supercharger network being the limiting factor. They can step on the gas pedal for superchargers whenever they want.

You should do some analysis of Nissan and GM - they are the ones that seem to have trouble selling their Leaf and Bolt. Tesla seems to be selling S3X quite well.

 

[juliusa]

@PLUS EV - about how many times have you supercharged your car? How many different superchargers have you been to? About how many times have you had to wait for a stall?

I've been to 276 different superchargers, superchargered over 1000 times, and the only time I had to wait for a stall was once for 5 minutes in San Mateo, and at two superchargers when driving home after the eclipse.

I have been the only person at a supercharger more times than I can remember.

 

[gnuarm]

No, you are inventing a problem. Your reply to the post that it was half full talking about being at capacity being not so bad is quite telling.

Yes, sucks to have to wait in traffic, for gas, or for a supercharger. No reason to throw out the baby with the occasionally-dirty bath water.

You seem to go to extremes very quickly. What baby are you talking about? Who's throwing it out??? Why not stick to the discussion of facts and projections without getting emotional about it?

I've presented facts and made reasonable projections and you don't dispute the facts. You seem to think anyone who points out problems is the problem.

@PLUS EV - about how many times have you supercharged your car? How many different superchargers have you been to? About how many times have you had to wait for a stall?


Sounds like a L2 charger issue to me. I stay at hotels with L2 chargers (or one close by), or if staying with friends charge at 120v which is plenty.

Not sure who you are talking to. If me, I'm not staying at hotels. I already mentioned that I charged at my friend's house over night and didn't even get enough charge for a single drive within the county. Also, there is exactly one hotel with a L2 charger in the entire county of Frederick. This commuter haven of DC and Baltimore seems to have been largely bypassed by the EV revolution... until now. Frederick will be the site of a new Supercharger this year.

Still is. 300k or so cars in the US. Only car with a reliable fast-charging network. Hotels and businesses just starting to have L2 chargers. More and more homes have L2 chargers.

Exactly. And if Tesla wants to keep getting up they need to address the state of charging and stay ahead of the power curve... which they did not do in 2018. That's why there are congested chargers now.

Yes, yes. The sky is falling. Tesla sales are about to end. They have "simply" been selling EVs as fast as they can make them, so don't worry about the supercharger network being the limiting factor. They can step on the gas pedal for superchargers whenever they want.

I guess that's why the stock dropped this week on the quarter results. The stock analysts and traders agree with me that the demand is dropping as we speak. Going into the new year will require Tesla to address overseas markets. That's why I'm concerned with the US superchargers. It will be tough to build enough new chargers for both domestic and overseas markets at the same time. As I've said before, the real market for EVs will be China. I don't know if Tesla will be able to compete there or not, but the next car producing Gigafactory will be there, not here.

If Tesla can build as many chargers as they want any time they want, why didn't they prevent the congestion in California? Tesla has limitations and the charging network my well be a bigger problem than they and especially you think. The big iron companies aren't dumb. They are working the charging problem with independent networks and timing their new car introductions to match.

You should do some analysis of Nissan and GM - they are the ones that seem to have trouble selling their Leaf and Bolt. Tesla seems to be selling S3X quite well.

Sure, the Bolt is a good car, but GM failed to provide a charging solution. I've already said that many times. That is a lesson to learn. If the Tesla Supercharger network gets a reputation for being congested and difficult to use they won't capture the hearts of mainstream America and won't be selling many cars.

 

[gnuarm]

I've been to 276 different superchargers, superchargered over 1000 times, and the only time I had to wait for a stall was once for 5 minutes in San Mateo, and at two superchargers when driving home after the eclipse.

I have been the only person at a supercharger more times than I can remember.

How is your personal anecdote at all relevant? You have read the reports of charger congestion in many locations around California and Arizona. The most recent one involved lines 15 cars deep. I personally was at a charger the other day which became congested while I charged and this was far from California, near Washington, D.C. Yep, all the other chargers in the area were well under capacity. Doesn't matter. If a lot of people see the congestion around this charger, do you think they will remember all the times they see the name Tesla and don't see congestion? No, they will remember the negative points. Worse, these chargers are ground level in a parking garage. Very visible and the waiting cars block everyone else as well.

 

[juliusa]

The stock analysts and traders agree with me that the demand is dropping

I have not seen that - got a link? The articles I've seen talk about less deliveries in 2018 than expected - nothing about demand.

How is your personal anecdote at all relevant?

My point exactly!! Your analysis based on anecdotes is completely meaningless. The time I had to wait 3 years ago in California did not dampen sales - I don't see what has changed from then that the infrequent waits will dampen sales now.

 

[juliusa]

If ... they won't capture the hearts of mainstream America and won't be selling many cars.

For the past 6 years the have been capturing as many hearts as they have cars. Seems they have a shortage of cars, not hearts.

 

[PLUS EV]

I've been to 276 different superchargers, superchargered over 1000 times, and the only time I had to wait for a stall was once for 5 minutes in San Mateo, and at two superchargers when driving home after the eclipse.

I have been the only person at a supercharger more times than I can remember.

I've supercharged over a thousand times and was 2nd in line once at Mountain View a couple years ago.

I believe gnuarm is a troll and I'm fairly sure he doesn't own a Tesla.

 

[PLUS EV]

How is your personal anecdote at all relevant? You have read the reports of charger congestion in many locations around California and Arizona. The most recent one involved lines 15 cars deep. I personally was at a charger the other day which became congested while I charged and this was far from California, near Washington, D.C. Yep, all the other chargers in the area were well under capacity. Doesn't matter. If a lot of people see the congestion around this charger, do you think they will remember all the times they see the name Tesla and don't see congestion? No, they will remember the negative points. Worse, these chargers are ground level in a parking garage. Very visible and the waiting cars block everyone else as well.

Just like no one gets gas at Costco anymore. It's too crowded!

 

[Bet TSLA]

I had to drive 25 miles each way the other day to get to a Supercharger so I could do the local driving I needed.

Sounds like really bad planning. You should learn to think ahead.

I believe gnuarm is a troll and I'm fairly sure he doesn't own a Tesla.

Seems likely enough. I find that Tesla owners might get caught out once or twice early in their ownership days, but they don't tend towards persistent obtuseness.