Swapping is Coming [Discuss how it will be accomplished]

[Citizen-T]

Sure it doesn't exclude it, but at the same time it completely shoots down the suggestion that the patent somehow supports that claim. Right now there is zero evidence that Tesla is doing anything with Phinergy or aluminum-air. Seems like this is mostly people's wishful thinking.

In contrast, swapping of the main pack has been a claim Tesla made since the beginning.

Yes, thank you. Now can I have my thread back please?

Let's stop looking at alternative technologies and find the solution that I suspect Elon already found for battery swapping. We know that it is going to be additive to Supercharging. So, it must be for a specific use case, separate from the Supercharger use case. My original theory was that it would be used at the highest traffic supercharger locations (as opposed to installing 50 Supercharging stations). What other use case would justify having a second "refilling" solution?

There must be others.

 

[bollar]

Yes, thank you. Now can I have my thread back please?

Let's stop looking at alternative technologies and find the solution that I suspect Elon already found for battery swapping. We know that it is going to be additive to Supercharging. So, it must be for a specific use case, separate from the Supercharger use case. My original theory was that it would be used at the highest traffic supercharger locations (as opposed to installing 50 Supercharging stations). What other use case would justify having a second "refilling" solution?

There must be others.

I hope I'm not repeating myself. I see swapping being of most use in the middle of very long legs, where a full charge is required to get between two cities and an hour + stop in the middle of nowhere will be painful. Personally, I would be happy to supercharge for shorter legs.

 

[Citizen-T]

I hope I'm not repeating myself. I see swapping being of most use in the middle of very long legs, where a full charge is required to get between two cities and an hour + stop in the middle of nowhere will be painful. Personally, I would be happy to supercharge for shorter legs.

That's a good point. For trips that would require 2 stops or more, being able to swap at one of them would be helpful. Maybe even every other supercharger along major routes. That way you can stop and eat at one station, but just swap packs at the next.

 

[stopcrazypp]

My original theory was that it would be used at the highest traffic supercharger locations (as opposed to installing 50 Supercharging stations).

I agree with everything in your OP and the role of the battery swap locations (that it'll only be complementary to Supercharger stations). The only point I don't agree with is the owner not getting their pack back on the return trip (although I feel it being cycled in between is probably acceptable, since at minimum the owner would expect a fully charged pack). This is a concern Elon has brought up before about swapping and Tesla's current warranty is not enough to provide enough confidence for this (at least for people who have read it more carefully instead of assuming it covers capacity). I realize the owner getting their pack back will likely increase the inventory of packs significantly (assuming the math we have done so far is correct), but perhaps Elon has figured a way to make the costs work out despite that. The costs work out best for extremely long routes (since the stops in between will not involve storage of an owner battery, only the first stop does).

I've thought a bit more about it and I feel that perhaps a per hour rental fee (rather than a per swap fee) may work best in this case (assuming owner packs are stored). Basically you rent a pack on the swap network on a per hour basis and this gives you unlimited swaps for the time period (while your pack is stored at your starting location). The per hour fee will encourage people to return the borrowed pack for their owner pack earlier (that's when the clock stops and the contract ends), which would reduce the number of packs required. I'm guessing a price range of $2-4 per hour (equivalent to ~$50-100/day) will be relatively easy to accept (it's on par with car rental fees and still cheaper than fueling costs which would be ~$7/hr of driving assuming $3.5/gal, 30mpg, 60mph).

This also has the advantage of only needing transactions while dropping off the owner pack and picking it back up on the return trip (when using borrowed packs there is not interaction required, those packs will be marked as a borrowed pack). This will keep the experience similar to the Supercharger network (where there is no monetary transaction for the stations).

 

[richkae]

What if the details of the arrangement were different for those who lease their cars and those own them?
As an owner, I want my pack back, and I would be willing to pay any reasonable fees while I am borrowing a pack.
As a lease holder, I may be perfectly happy to let Tesla manage which battery pack I have at any time.

 

[aronth5]

I wonder if Tesla and their insurance company will allow the battery swap to happen with people in the car?
If everyone has to get out that certainly means the swap doesn't happen faster then filling up a gas tank.
And if a family has kids in car sits what a pain. I expect Tesla will have a slick conveyor type system, or use the Jiffy Lube approach so the car won't have to be raised, so everyone can to stay in the car.

 

[Shakespear]

If a EV RENTAL agency carried the Tesla S, I would assume that this type of BATTERY SWAPPING would be perfect for the agency.
It would afford them no downtime and would be able to rent the Tesla again without delay.
This might be the best way for TESLA to sell multiple units to large rental companies in cosmopolitan areas such as LA. and surrounding area.

 

[DonPedro]

My guess is that Tesla will be fully aware of the psychological resistance to the battery leasing, yet implement it anyway. As they have with the Model S itself, they will trust that the superior customer experience will convince us. I think the plan will be:

1. Make participation voluntary, so that those opposed can keep their battery and use the SC (until they are convinced)
2. Give a way out of the lease, so that you can withdraw whenever you want and take with you a battery that is clearly as good as you would have if you kept your own and took the best care of it
3. Ensure that while you are leasing, you always have a battery that you will be very happy with.

Given the above, I see a good initial uptake and then increasing. A few people will not join, but those will be the ones who didn't need the swapping much in the first place. In the end, everyone is happy. Tesla just addressed the last concern of the "EV-can't-match-ICE" crowd, getting 110/100 from Consumer Report and opening its cars for the Great Mass Market. The owners who want to benefit from swapping get it, and at the same time get a battery guarantee they did not even dare dreaming about. The people not joining the swap get a good SC network, and Tesla's mass market success give them comfort in terms of future service, spare parts and opportunity to buy the next great car.

 

[Yggdrasill]

Sure it doesn't exclude it, but at the same time it completely shoots down the suggestion that the patent somehow supports that claim. Right now there is zero evidence that Tesla is doing anything with Phinergy or aluminum-air. Seems like this is mostly people's wishful thinking.

In contrast, swapping of the main pack has been a claim Tesla made since the beginning.

I also think we are talking about swapping the main battery pack, but I just don't see the market for swapping regular NCA li-ion battery packs. That suggests to me one of two things:

1. Tesla has something up their sleeve.
2. Tesla is about to make their biggest mistake yet.

I'm leaning towards the first possibility. If it's not aluminium-air that they have up their sleeve, it may be that Tesla has been working on li-air batteries since before the patent was filed. Current Li-air cells have an energy density of around 700 Wh/kg. That should allow the Model S battery pack to go to 220 kWh. Not as much as with aluminium-air, but still fairly good. (Yes, I know lithium-air isn't really available yet - but Tesla could (with a giant order) make them available.) This should allow for a range of around 685 miles EPA-certified, or about 550 "safe" miles. Swapping such battery packs would probably be slightly faster than filling gas on long trips.

 

[bollar]

My guess is that Tesla will be fully aware of the psychological resistance to the battery leasing, yet implement it anyway. As they have with the Model S itself, they will trust that the superior customer experience will convince us.

I think you're right and I think we'll see Tesla increase their communication that there's nothing the owner can do to change the battery's charge capacity profile over time.

 

[Citizen-T]

I think you're right and I think we'll see Tesla increase their communication that there's nothing the owner can do to change the battery's charge capacity profile over time.

This is what I'm thinking. I think they've made a mistake of making such a big deal out of the pack. I think recent changes (like removing the warning about range charging and the "no fault" warranty) are aimed at helping the average consumer forget about the battery. Sure, those of us on this board are keenly aware of the effect on the battery from sneezing too hard in the car when the temp is below freezing at high altitudes on a Monday in April, but what about the average person that walks into a Tesla store?

I think sending the signal that the battery is just a commodity part that can be replaced when needed like your cell phone battery is a much, much better signal to send to the masses. Only the early adopters are going to care about babying their battery. As long as Tesla is good about taking bad batteries out of circulation, I think the average person will be fine with swapping 'their' battery out for a different one when theirs is dead.

 

[aaron0k]

Tesla wants to open the market to those who don't have charging ability at their home/apartment/condo/renters as well as alleviate range anxiety. That is a huge market.


Those that went with the SC option will likely be in luck when the announcement is made.


The few who remain 'attached' to their pack have the 'option' of not swapping. Keep your preciously maintained pack if you want to, no one is going to force you to swap it.

 

[Citizen-T]

Tesla wants to open the market to those who don't have charging ability at their home/apartment/condo/renters as well as alleviate range anxiety. That is a huge market.


Those that went with the SC option will likely be in luck when the announcement is made.


The few who remain 'attached' to their pack have the 'option' of not swapping. Keep your preciously maintained pack if you want to, no one is going to force you to swap it.

Exactly.

 

[aaron0k]

I also expect swap stations will be stocked with 85k packs. However, You will be software limited to the model you purchased, e.g. If you have a 60 and swap in an 85; you'll only get the '60' range.

40 owners (me) will never have swap ability.

 

[brianman]

I think sending the signal that the battery is just a commodity part

I'm pretty certain they won't (or at least shouldn't) characterize the battery pack as a "commodity". A lot of their IP and value is in the battery pack.

 

[bollar]

I'm pretty certain they won't (or at least shouldn't) characterize the battery pack as a "commodity". A lot of their IP and value is in the battery pack.

If you believe this notion (which I do), commodity means that the average user will not have to care how the Tesla-made 85 kWh battery was treated before it is put on their car. Whether it's brand new, a replacement, or swapped at one of these theoretical swapping stations, it will meet or exceed some specified performance level. This will be the case regardless of how the battery was treated before the swap -- set at 100% like the typical user will do, or set at some "optimal" level like we believe a power user or early adopter will continue to do, the battery will still perform to beat the spec.

So, by commodity, I mean that there's no reason or advantage to choose one Tesla-made battery over another. Or at least that's what Tesla will argue.

In any event, does anyone really know what 100% charge means? Maybe that's 100% of the best charge that the battery is able to accept based on the current conditions, as determined by the O/S... Perhaps if conditions allow a larger charge on any given day, maybe that is masked from the regular user. I'm sure power users will eventually figure this out and create a new optimization strategy.

 

[Citizen-T]

I'm pretty certain they won't (or at least shouldn't) characterize the battery pack as a "commodity". A lot of their IP and value is in the battery pack.

I hear what you are saying. I didn't mean "commodity" in that sense. I mean it like a DVD. Clearly the copyrighted content on the DVD is not a commodity, but the disc itself that is holding the content is. Same with the pack. The pack design and software are extremely valuable IP, which pack you get in your car...who cares. I think that is what they are trying to iterate towards.

 

[jcstp]

this is my thinking about batteryswap
don't know if i just repeat someone else!

Concerning batteryswapping, it could be that Tesla took over the taxi-test in LA! formerly awarded to coda!

Any other batteryswapping is not feasable I guess! Unless Tesla starts leasing it's battery's, and ads batteryswapping to this service!
Leasing the battery lowers the price of the Model S. The car can still Supercharge, and with the swapping-possibility as soon as stations pop up
Maybe ideal service for taxi-fleets?

An additional possitif effect of batteryswap-stations is energystorage! With more and more renewables comming online, the problem becomes where to dump the load!
In some states you already get paid to use electricity!

 

[gregincal]

What if Tesla had an option to lease the battery for people who wanted to use the swap system regularly (and there would be a system to "sell" your currently owned battery and put it into the swap system or alternatively buy the battery currently in your car if you wanted to withdraw from the system, all prorated by remaining battery life). However, in addition in major metros you would have the option of renting a swappable battery and placing your owned battery in storage if you wanted to do a long trip. Remember that they have said that they expect a lot more 60kWh cars in the future. The idea of being able to rent an 85kWh battery for a road trip is always something they've talked about.

As well with a robot system I think the swap could happen without ever lifting your car. The battery pack is thin. It should be able to be detached and slid out from under the car with the car sitting on the ground, and then the new pack is slid in and lifted.

 

[Royal TS(LA)]

Guys, I don't get the whole "my battery" aspect of the discussion. I own a car to drive around with it - period. I expect an enterprise like Tesla to take care of the possibly gritty details of swapping as announced. It's definitely not my job as a customer to worry about the state of the battery pack I have currently attached to my car. If Tesla ****s it up, it's their problem and their cost. By the way, I find the thought, that a simple user could be able in any way to take care of the currently attached battery pack better than any specifically designed handling electronics, completely absurd. The pack is a complex piece of cells and high power electronics. Please come down to Earth again .