Hi. Here is the latest situation. Both the pessimistic scenario and the optimistic scenario look possible. It's a close call. My calculations show they will hit 200K USA sales on 21st Dec 2017 if things go according to plan. As of today, I'm calculating 115,375 sales in the USA. If they hit their targets, they will finish this year with 44,702 Model 3's and 206,096 total USA sales. That's the pessimistic scenario in terms of tax credits. However, it's possible that volume production won't start in Sep 2017 as planned. Another possibility is that Tesla might game the system by shipping more cars to Europe and Asia near the end of this year.
Pessimistic Scenario (if Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q4 2017)
$7,500 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Sep 30, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Mar 31, 2019
Optimistic Scenario (if Tesla hits 200,000 USA sales in Q1 2018)
$7,500 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2018
$3,750 for deliveries until Dec 31, 2018
$1,875 for deliveries until Jun 30, 2019
Here are the recent data points that matter. The first three bullet points are from the Feb 22, 2017
shareholder letter:
- Model 3 on track for initial production in July, volume production by September
- Model 3 program is on track to start limited vehicle production in July and to steadily ramp production to exceed 5,000 vehicles per week at some point in the fourth quarter and 10,000 vehicles per week at some point in 2018.
- We expect to deliver 47,000 to 50,000 Model S and Model X vehicles combined in the first half of 2017
- This is from the conference call: 54:02 Elon: Yes. I currently think that we should build to 500,000 vehicles next year and 1 million vehicles by 2020. That's 500,000 vehicles in total, Model S, Model 3, and Model X combined next year ... Source
By the way, in case somebody is calculating less than 115K USA sales so far, I recommend checking out columns O and P on
this page. These are the two columns called "USA" and "USA Yearly". Tesla has released USA sales numbers for 2014, 2015 and Q3 2016. The data sources can be found on that page.
In the future, for the latest info on this issue, you can open
THIS page and scroll all the way to the right. If you are a Model 3 reservation holder, check out the
Model 3 Delivery Estimator. It integrates this information to the output based on your delivery estimate.