The attachment from SmarterMotor posted only mention that a large number of non model S/X should receive the tax incentive. What exactly does that mean? If you order before the unveiling or under the 115K that was mention. What are the chances of getting the 7500 credits. I understand those that make over $250K don't qualified. Will other car maker such as leaf and bolt dip into the tax credit funds?
Hey Dukester, the income limit is ONLY for the California State EV Rebate of $2500 (I am sure other states have other restrictions). To my knowledge there is NO income limit for the Federal $7500 tax credit as your post is talking about. In my opinion, even if you ordered today (maybe position 325,000+), you would still get some tax credits. Here is why:
• Of those 325,000 pre-orders only a fraction will really end up in actual purchases. Lets assume a figure like 75% because some people don't want to wait or really don't have money to buy this vehicle.
• Of those 325,000 pre-orders only a fraction of them of them are USA purchases. The pre-order count numbers published are worldwide and we should only care about USA. Another user on here posted that it is about 50% for USA and I think that is a fair guess based on his comparison to the Model S numbers.
Hypothetically:
If you pre-order today as reservation number 325,000 (today's current backlog), then assuming only 75% convert to true sales, that means only 243,750 Model 3. Then lets say half of those are in the USA, then that's 121,875 Model 3s. So the competition for a Model 3 is not that bad right now.
It is not too late. If you order early you have a better chance but in my in my opinion, all orders up until launch and even some thereafter will receive some tax credits as there is up to 18 months of some tax credits. Also, my numbers are all estimates. There could be more cancellations OR less USA orders.
As for your question about the Leaf, Bolt, and other EV, it should NOT affect the $7500 for Tesla. To my knowledge it isn't a total aggregate fund that has a dollar value limit. The way it works is each manufacturer has a expiration period for their tax credits. It is once the manufacturer hits their 200,000th eligible car, then the 15-18 month phaseout starts. It is per manufacturer and not a total among all companies or a total value shared among all car manufacturers.