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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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JRP3
Hyperactive Member
For reference their higher energy density cells are 96Wh/kg:
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Maybe Toshiba was able to develop their Niobium Titanate Oxide chemistry Niobium Titanium Oxide (NTO) anode | TOSHIBA Rechargeable battery SCiB™
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Page 13 mentions "monoclinic" crystal structure for their NTO chemistry
www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/pr/pdf/tpr20191114_7e.pdf
www.toshiba.co.jp/about/ir/en/pr/pdf/tpr20191114_7e.pdf
The main question here is cost if Niobium Titanate costs significantly more than Lithium Titanate.
in investors thread you multiplied LTO 96Wh/kg by 1,5, but it shows volumetric increase of 1,5 not gravimetric. Anode only NTO ~2x gravimetric, ~ 3x volumetric.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Some Mitsubishi i-Mievs used LTO. It's really too heavy for consumer cars, though, and is pretty mature so the idea Apple will magically increase energy density sounds like hopium to me. If there was that much headroom in LTO Toshiba would not be talking NTO up so much.
If high volume production could bring LTO/NTO price way down it'd make sense for Robotaxis. A $3k 30 kWh pack beats a $6k 60 kWh "all day" pack, since you can recharge during slack time between rush hours in addition to overnight.
If high volume production could bring LTO/NTO price way down it'd make sense for Robotaxis. A $3k 30 kWh pack beats a $6k 60 kWh "all day" pack, since you can recharge during slack time between rush hours in addition to overnight.
One thing with niobium is worldwide production isn't much right now. It's going to take time and investment to expand it to a point that it would be plentiful enough for mass production of NTO cells.
From the graphic posted by @JRP3 it looks like the cell voltage is about 1/2 that for Li-ion being used by Tesla (Li-ion cell voltages vary by chemistry, but Tesla's chemistry runs around 4V fully charged and 3.5V nominal). That makes the KWh/Kg much closer to parity between the two chemistries. Though it looks like NTO is still better for volumetric capacity.
The fast charging capability is impressive, but with 6 minute charge times the limiting factor could end up being the power delivery by the charger. If the chemistry does not need to taper and can take the full power for the entire charge time that requires an 800 KW charger to charge an 80 KWh pack in 6 minutes. That would be without heat loss. I don't know of any battery chemistry that doesn't get warm when charged.
Most supercharger locations have better than 800 KW service, but that's for multiple SCs. As electric cars move into the mainstream even 6 minute chargers are going to have to be built like gas stations today.
What sort of heat do these cells produce when fast charging and how big does the car's cooling system have to be?
Toshiba's own site for SCiB says that NTO is a "possibility". That doesn't sound like it's ready for mass production yet. Possibly a couple of years out if they hustle.
Niobium Titanium Oxide (NTO) anode | TOSHIBA Rechargeable battery SCiB™
As for Apple, the last all new product they released was the Apple Watch in 2015. Everything else has been derivatives of existing products. They are still innovating within those product lines. The new Macs have some impressive performance numbers. But innovating an existing product and introducing an all new one are different things. Steve Jobs had the intuition to innovate products, but the company has settled into being competent at their core technologies since Tim Cook took over.
Apple became the company it is today by disrupting the phone business with fully functional pocket computers as well as disrupting the portable music marker (iPod), and finally coming out with a very usable tablet computer. Something many companies had tried and failed for 20 years.
In each case they brought to a niche something nobody else was doing and ended up becoming the leader in that niche. If not in market share, at least the leader in desire by consumers.
Their products also cost a premium over other makers in the field because they advertise they are offering something the others don't. I don't see where that strategy would work in the car market. Tesla already owns all the claims Apple usually does in the automotive space and I just don't see where Apple can bring any tech to the table that would disrupt Tesla.
About the only unfulfilled promise in the automotive space that Tesla has failed to deliver is full self driving cars. but that is a nightmare problem to tackle, as everyone known in the field have found out. Full self driving capability also needs to slot into a massive regulatory labyrinth with hundreds if not thousands of jurisdictions worldwide. Apple has never had to innovate into a market niche with so many existing regulations that need to be followed.
Apple is big enough they can afford to pour money into a money losing division longer than just about anyone else in the world. All that money buys them time to get established, but I'm skeptical that the Apple car is going to have the sort of impact the iPhone or any other innovative Apple product had.
As the car industry electrifies, there will be a shake up. Probably something akin to what we saw when the photo industry went from film to digital. Some established companies like Nikon and Canon surfed the change and are still strong players in the market today, but at least for a while the market was also filled with HP, Panasonic, Sony and other traditional electronics makers selling cameras. Cell phone cameras got good enough that the bottom half of the camera market imploded and a lot of the electronics companies got out, but for a while it was a handful of old camera companies and a bunch of electronics companies dominating the camera market.
The car market after the shakeout might be a few legacy car makers who survived and a mix of new companies and some companies who branched into cars from other industries (I'm still expecting LG to start making their own cars one of these days). Apple could be part of that pack, but I doubt they will be the car most EV buyers aspire to. Unless Tesla screws up, Tesla will likely maintain the halo spot in the car industry like Apple does in some other niches.
From the graphic posted by @JRP3 it looks like the cell voltage is about 1/2 that for Li-ion being used by Tesla (Li-ion cell voltages vary by chemistry, but Tesla's chemistry runs around 4V fully charged and 3.5V nominal). That makes the KWh/Kg much closer to parity between the two chemistries. Though it looks like NTO is still better for volumetric capacity.
The fast charging capability is impressive, but with 6 minute charge times the limiting factor could end up being the power delivery by the charger. If the chemistry does not need to taper and can take the full power for the entire charge time that requires an 800 KW charger to charge an 80 KWh pack in 6 minutes. That would be without heat loss. I don't know of any battery chemistry that doesn't get warm when charged.
Most supercharger locations have better than 800 KW service, but that's for multiple SCs. As electric cars move into the mainstream even 6 minute chargers are going to have to be built like gas stations today.
What sort of heat do these cells produce when fast charging and how big does the car's cooling system have to be?
Toshiba's own site for SCiB says that NTO is a "possibility". That doesn't sound like it's ready for mass production yet. Possibly a couple of years out if they hustle.
Niobium Titanium Oxide (NTO) anode | TOSHIBA Rechargeable battery SCiB™
As for Apple, the last all new product they released was the Apple Watch in 2015. Everything else has been derivatives of existing products. They are still innovating within those product lines. The new Macs have some impressive performance numbers. But innovating an existing product and introducing an all new one are different things. Steve Jobs had the intuition to innovate products, but the company has settled into being competent at their core technologies since Tim Cook took over.
Apple became the company it is today by disrupting the phone business with fully functional pocket computers as well as disrupting the portable music marker (iPod), and finally coming out with a very usable tablet computer. Something many companies had tried and failed for 20 years.
In each case they brought to a niche something nobody else was doing and ended up becoming the leader in that niche. If not in market share, at least the leader in desire by consumers.
Their products also cost a premium over other makers in the field because they advertise they are offering something the others don't. I don't see where that strategy would work in the car market. Tesla already owns all the claims Apple usually does in the automotive space and I just don't see where Apple can bring any tech to the table that would disrupt Tesla.
About the only unfulfilled promise in the automotive space that Tesla has failed to deliver is full self driving cars. but that is a nightmare problem to tackle, as everyone known in the field have found out. Full self driving capability also needs to slot into a massive regulatory labyrinth with hundreds if not thousands of jurisdictions worldwide. Apple has never had to innovate into a market niche with so many existing regulations that need to be followed.
Apple is big enough they can afford to pour money into a money losing division longer than just about anyone else in the world. All that money buys them time to get established, but I'm skeptical that the Apple car is going to have the sort of impact the iPhone or any other innovative Apple product had.
As the car industry electrifies, there will be a shake up. Probably something akin to what we saw when the photo industry went from film to digital. Some established companies like Nikon and Canon surfed the change and are still strong players in the market today, but at least for a while the market was also filled with HP, Panasonic, Sony and other traditional electronics makers selling cameras. Cell phone cameras got good enough that the bottom half of the camera market imploded and a lot of the electronics companies got out, but for a while it was a handful of old camera companies and a bunch of electronics companies dominating the camera market.
The car market after the shakeout might be a few legacy car makers who survived and a mix of new companies and some companies who branched into cars from other industries (I'm still expecting LG to start making their own cars one of these days). Apple could be part of that pack, but I doubt they will be the car most EV buyers aspire to. Unless Tesla screws up, Tesla will likely maintain the halo spot in the car industry like Apple does in some other niches.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
The 6 minute charge rating is to 80%. I have 4 older used Toshiba Scib batteries, 24V 40ah, which have no cooling for the cells. They look just like this
Doggydogworld
Active Member
In mid-2018 Toshiba signed a deal for TNO anode materials and targeted 2020 commercial production. Here's a hopeful presentation from their Brazilian Niobium partner, CBMM. But something apparently went wrong along the way. Toshiba's 2020 investor presentation barely mentions TNO (p15). This ACS abstract mentions "challenges" scaling up TiNb2O7 (side note: Goodenough listed as co-author).
Some random thoughts. Batteries today are ~good enough. They are safe, perform well(1.9s 0-60mph), charge fast(tabless) and have a decent range(520+ miles). Not much room to improve for solid state. What’s left to compete on is price and scale.
Sure some batteries might be even better at all these, but batteries are already good enough to seriously disrupt ICE. There will be some use cases for these ultra performance batteries, but they will be dwarfed by the cheaper, high scale batteries. If cost and scale is not the main talking points, then imo just ignore whatever the company is saying. With Tesla growing 50%/year for the next decade they will soon find themselves being a niche player.
Sure some batteries might be even better at all these, but batteries are already good enough to seriously disrupt ICE. There will be some use cases for these ultra performance batteries, but they will be dwarfed by the cheaper, high scale batteries. If cost and scale is not the main talking points, then imo just ignore whatever the company is saying. With Tesla growing 50%/year for the next decade they will soon find themselves being a niche player.
Honda is discontinuing the Clarity EV, the only pure EV they sell in the U.S. Seems like the 89 mile range proved to be an "issue" for some buyers. Whoulda thunkit?
MotorBiscuit: The Honda Clarity EV Is Dying a Slow Death.
The Honda Clarity EV Is Dying a Slow Death | MotorBiscuit
MotorBiscuit: The Honda Clarity EV Is Dying a Slow Death.
The Honda Clarity EV Is Dying a Slow Death | MotorBiscuit
Runarbt
Active Member
Tabless doesnt improve charging speed, just heat generated.
Elon was asked about charging speed after batteryday, and clearified.
If cooling is more efficient, that could improve charging speeds at least by a bit. One of the limits is how hot the batteries get while charging. Though faster charge rate is not a direct benefit of tabless.
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