Interesting take on the new F150, basically they should have made it a high performance sport truck like the original. Of course that would have made it even more expensive.
An electric F-150 is cool. An electric sport truck would have been cooler, especially since Ford has already proved it knows how to build one.
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They probably will come out with a Raptor/Lightning version at some point, but by coming out with a regular work truck, they are doing two things
1) Normalizing EVs in the minds of the public. Ford sees the handwriting on the wall and they want to be ahead of full mass adoption. If they're seen as a leader (ie converting their biggest seller) early, they run a better chance of surviving.
2) About half the pickup market is end consumers and the other electric trucks are all targeting that market with the Cybertruck, Rivian, and Hummer, but at least half the pickup market is business and governments (every city and county has a fleet of work trucks). If consumers are slow to adopt the F-150 Lightning, fleet sales will be strong. Fleet buyers hold cost of ownership at the top of their decision making tree and EVs are cheaper to own.
I still think Ford is going to be able to sell every F150 Lightning they can make. But the remaining questions are:
1. Can they make enough to satisfy the demand they're generating by hyping up the truck?
2. If enough of Ford's customers are convinced they want their next truck to be electric, and Ford can't make enough Lightnings to remotely fill that demand (e.g. a multi-year waitlist), what do those customers do? Give up and buy another ICE F150 (even if Ford has convinced them that electric is superior in every way)? Wait diligently for the Lightning (even if they need a new truck now)? Buy a Cybertruck/Rivian?
The future of every EV hinges on how fast battery production can be expanded. Tesla was the first to act on this and will likely have a supply advantage for several years to come, but the rest of the industry is now beginning to throw resources into getting production up.
The biggest fear traditional automakers have is Osbourning themselves. That's one reason they have been reluctant to make EVs that are appealing outside the eco-buyer bubble up until now. If the bulk of buyers suddenly realizes that EVs are far better and won't buy new ICE, instead seeking out an EV that's available or sitting on their ICE longer until the EV they want is available, the traditional automakers are going to go bankrupt. If Ford has the capacity to build 100K Lightnings a year, and low demand for the legacy F series, Ford won't have the cash flow to complete the conversion of production to the Lightning.
If Tesla is geared up to make 500K Cybertrucks a year, they will get a lot of business from frustrated F series buyers who see a 3 year waiting list for a Lightning, but only a 3 month wait for a Cybertruck. Even if the buyer is more traditionally loyal to Ford and doesn't like the look of the Cybertruck, if they need a new truck, they will go with Tesla. Though the Cybertruck is not capable of taking a commercial bed which the Lightning is. Unless Tesla adapts and makes a work truck version of the Cybertruck that can take the standard specialty beds the other Big 3 trucks can take, Tesla is going to lose commercial sales. The private market is still pretty big.
