Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[RubberToe]

InsideEVs : NHTSA: Preliminary Investigation Into Porsche Taycan Power Loss.

NHTSA: Preliminary Investigation Into Porsche Taycan Power Loss

NHTSA points out two field reports that claim "a loss of motive power while in motion at any speed without warning to the driver."

insideevs.com

 

[JRP3]

I do like the way the F150 frunk opens allowing a lower loading/unloading height but I prefer the larger bed of the Cyber over a larger frunk.

 

[Discoducky]

InsideEVs : NHTSA: Preliminary Investigation Into Porsche Taycan Power Loss.

NHTSA: Preliminary Investigation Into Porsche Taycan Power Loss

NHTSA points out two field reports that claim "a loss of motive power while in motion at any speed without warning to the driver."

insideevs.com

I really hope those customers reached out to Porsche first. It always bothers me when folks don't feel like the car manufacturer will do the right thing. Hope this is resolved quickly!

 

[RobStark]

The only difference between the base Lightning and the base Lightning Pro ( intended for commercial customers but can be purchased by retail customers) is the Pro will have vinyl seats vs cloth seats, have a telemetrics screen/software, and come standard with an internet connection( with a lease ?) This comes standard with dual motor and Powered Mega Frunk.

The extended range battery back is an extra $10k. Only fleet customers can buy a Lightning Pro Extended Range for $50k.

Retail customers need to buy a $53k XLT plus $10k for extended range pack? Or can retail customers buy a base retail Lightning and add the extended range pack for $10k?

Ford Announces F-150 Lightning Pro For Commercial Customers

Ford has introduced today an additional version of the all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup, purpose-built for commercial customers - called F-150 Lightning Pro.

insideevs.com

 

[mark95476]

Sandy Munro recommended getting the top-end Platinum.

Remember when Tesla used to have upgraded battery pack options on S and X? They're all gone now.

The only difference between the base Lightning and the base Lightning Pro ( intended for commercial customers but can be purchased by retail customers) is the Pro will have vinyl seats vs cloth seats, have a telemetrics screen/software, and come standard with an internet connection( with a lease ?) This comes standard with dual motor and Powered Mega Frunk.

View attachment 665503


The extended range battery back is an extra $10k. Only fleet customers can buy a Lightning Pro Extended Range for $50k.

Retail customers need to buy a $53k XLT plus $10k for extended range pack? Or can retail customers buy a base retail Lightning and add the extended range pack for $10k?

Ford Announces F-150 Lightning Pro For Commercial Customers

Ford has introduced today an additional version of the all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup, purpose-built for commercial customers - called F-150 Lightning Pro.

insideevs.com

 

[RobStark]

Sandy Munro recommended getting the top-end Platinum.

Remember when Tesla used to have upgraded battery pack options on S and X? They're all gone now.

You can get the extended battery pack on the XLT.

You can get the extended battery pack on the Lariat plus standard leather seats with heating and cooling.

The Platinum comes standard with extended battery pack, supple premium leather seats that are heated and ventilated but not cooled. The seats are also maximum recline to sleep position.

If you insist on cloth seats you must get the XLT or base retail.

If you want cooled seats you must get the Lariat.

If you want maximum recline seats you must get the Platinum.

So not everybody "wants" the Platinum even if it was a no cost option.

 

[RobStark]

I would say with this Lightning Pro, telemetrics software, and Ford Financing Lordstown Motors is f'ing screwed.

Ford should be production constrained for a while but I see fleet managers waiting in line for Ford rather than buying a Lordstown pickup.

 

[MP3Mike]

Ford should be production constrained for a while but I see fleet managers waiting in line for Ford rather than buying a Lordstown pickup.

Maybe, if they can wait that long. My guess is that Ford will sell mostly higher priced/profit consumer F-150 Lightnings for a number of years. I doubt that there will be significant fleet sales for a number of years. On the other hand if they can produce a large volume of these next year they could really put the hurt on start-up EV truck companies. (I just don't see that happening, I suspect it will play out like the Mach-E which is very production limited such that it looks more like a compliance vehicle.)

The integrated telematics sounds interesting. And that is something that Tesla has sort of dipped their toes in with them working with the companies that outfit vehicles for law enforcement use. (And will obviously be coming with the Tesla Semi.)

 

[RobStark]

Maybe, if they can wait that long. My guess is that Ford will sell mostly higher priced/profit consumer F-150 Lightnings for a number of years. I doubt that there will be significant fleet sales for a number of years. On the other hand if they can produce a large volume of these next year they could really put the hurt on start-up EV truck companies. (I just don't see that happening, I suspect it will play out like the Mach-E which is very production limited such that it looks more like a compliance vehicle.)

The integrated telematics sounds interesting. And that is something that Tesla has sort of dipped their toes in with them working with the companies that outfit vehicles for law enforcement use. (And will obviously be coming with the Tesla Semi.)

Ford has 43% US market share for pickup fleet sales.

They may want to kill Lordstown in the crib and let Tesla and Rivian dominate the premium segment early on. Both Tesla and Rivian will deliver their base trucks last. And Tesla famously won't discount a single penny even on an order of 300 vehicles.

To grab as much market share in the commercial sector because long term that is a big money sector. Even at the opportunity cost of lost Lariat and Platinum sales.

 

[KJD]

The more EV companies we have the better it is for everyone. The way I see it, the more EV's we have on the road the fewer gas and oil burners on the road.

 

[JRP3]

Sandy really likes the Polestar

 

[RobStark]

The more EV companies we have the better it is for everyone. The way I see it, the more EV's we have on the road the fewer gas and oil burners on the road.

I agree.

I doubt the CEOs of the Legacy Automakers would concur.

 

[30seconds]

Ford has 43% US market share for pickup fleet sales.

They may want to kill Lordstown in the crib and let Tesla and Rivian dominate the premium segment early on. Both Tesla and Rivian will deliver their base trucks last. And Tesla famously won't discount a single penny even on an order of 300 vehicles.

To grab as much market share in the commercial sector because long term that is a big money sector. Even at the opportunity cost of lost Lariat and Platinum sales.

why does this matter? Ford doesn't have a battery factory and there is no mention from Ford about actual production capacity.

I think it is very very clear from the last 3, 4, 5, years of "Tesla Killers" that announcing or even launching a EV has ZERO to do with getting to a meaningful volume. GM makes a tremendous amount of questionable and cheap vehicles, yet for some reason they aren't able to sell more than 20k annually in the US. Nissan makes millions of vehicles annually, and yet the Leaf is basically a forgotten vehicle. Mercedes, BMW, Fiat / Renault, all very capable manufacturers of traditional gas powered vehicles, yet basically nothing from the EV side.

Maybe the most capable company to date is VW, and they are no where near selling either the ID.3 or ID.4 in any meaningful volume.

To me, what these companies excel in is a whole lot of bull#@!t marketing. Not afraid to lie / omit the truth about what their capabilities are in a desperate attempt to try to stay relevant.

What is Ford's production capacity for the Mach-E in 2022 or 2023? How about the production capacity of the Lighting in 2022 or 2023?

 

[RobStark]

why does this matter? Ford doesn't have a battery factory and there is no mention from Ford about actual production capacity.

What is Ford's production capacity for the Mach-E in 2022 or 2023? How about the production capacity of the Lighting in 2022 or 2023?

If you followed my post you would know.

Production capacity for Mach-e is currently 50k units per year. 20k reserved for USA and 30k reserved for Europe.

Through 2024 production capacity for Lightning will be 80k units per year.

2022 is "limited production"
2023 my guess is 60k produced
2024 my guess is 80k delivered.

For 2022 Lightning cells will be imported. From Korea or Hungary.

For 2023 Lightning cells will come from SKI's 2nd Georgia GF with annual capacity of 11.7 GWh.

For 2025 or 2026 Ford has signed a memorandum of understanding with SKI to build two joint venture GF with total annual capacity of 60 GWh. Final contracts are expected to be signed this summer. Ford is targeting global cell capacity from JV of 240 GWh by 2030 for Europe and USA. Same as Stellantis. And same for VW but for Europe only. VW has not discussed USA battery production. Global OEMs expect to buy all the cells they need in China from CATL and other battery companies operating in China without the need for JVs.

GM is halfway through building a 30 GWh joint venture Gigafactory in Ohio with LG. And has authorized another 35 GWh in Tennessee. Both have enough empty land next to them to double in size.

This is a picture of GM's Ohio facility from ~5 months ago. Nobody cares enough to take daily drone pictures.

BTW In case you didn't know the last number Tesla gave us from Giga Nevada was 39 GWh per year. Since then Panasonic announced they were opening a new line but have not announced it is up and running and given a new production number.

Tesla global targets are 2 TWh internal cell production by 2030 and purchasing 1 TWh from suppliers by 2030. Tesla is probably going to produce the Semi for North America,Europe, and China by then as well as massive amounts of global BES. Not just passenger cars and pickups/SUVs.

 

[RobStark]

Lordstown Motors says 2021 output will be half of expectations, needs capital

The company blamed COVID-19 and industry-wide issues that resulted in "significantly higher than expected" spending on parts, expedited shipping costs and third-party engineering resources.

www.autonews.com

 

[Doggydogworld]

VW has not discussed USA battery production.

A couple years ago VW said Chattanooga would get cells from SKI's factory in Georgia. SKI's issues since then may have impacted that.

BTW In case you didn't know the last number Tesla gave us from Giga Nevada was 39 GWh per year. Since then Panasonic announced they were opening a new line but have not announced it is up and running and given a new production number.

IMHO the 39 GWh included Panasonic's planned 14th line. That plus the 5% energy density increase took capacity from 34.xx to 39 GWh/year.

why does this matter? Ford doesn't have a battery factory

They don't have a tire factory, either. Or a headlight factory.

Maybe the most capable company to date is VW, and they are no where near selling either the ID.3 or ID.4 in any meaningful volume.

VW Group will sell a million EVs this year. They aren't dependent on a single model, they offer lots of choices. BEVs as well as PHEVs. Audis, Porsches, Skodas and SEAT/Cupras as well as VWs. Even within the limits of VW-branded BEVs they offer eUP and ID.6 as well as ID3/4.

Getting back to Ford, I agree with Rob that F-150 Lightning volumes will be moderate. The TCO numbers on the 230 mile version will work for a lot of high usage fleet buyers, but consumer demand will be limited relative to their ICE versions.

 

[RobStark]

A couple years ago VW said Chattanooga would get cells from SKI's factory in Georgia. SKI's issues since then may have impacted that.

I meant VW internally or in a JV. Yeah, VW will source from SKI GF Georgia 1.

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

VW Group will sell a million EVs this year. They aren't dependent on a single model, they offer lots of choices. BEVs as well as PHEVs. Audis, Porsches, Skodas and SEAT/Cupras as well as VWs. Even within the limits of VW-branded BEVs they offer eUP and ID.6 as well as ID3/4.

Where's this confidence coming from? They sold a total of 422,100 plug-in vehicles (hybrid "electrified" vehicles don't count, since their electricity comes from the combustion of petro chemicals) in 2020: In 2020, Volkswagen Group Sold 422,100 Plug-In Electric Cars.

With Q1 '21 only at 133,300 (Volkswagen Group Reports Strong Results In Q1 2021), they have a LONG ways to go to get to 1m.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Where's this confidence coming from? They sold a total of 422,100 plug-in vehicles (hybrid "electrified" vehicles don't count, since their electricity comes from the combustion of petro chemicals) in 2020: In 2020, Volkswagen Group Sold 422,100 Plug-In Electric Cars.

With Q1 '21 only at 133,300 (Volkswagen Group Reports Strong Results In Q1 2021), they have a LONG ways to go to get to 1m.

VAG backloads EVs. They were below 60k in Q1 last year and ended at 422k. They say they'll do 1m+ despite supply chain issues and they have more than enough factory capacity, but maybe they'll fall short.

 

[RobStark]

Nissan Dealer Offers 99-Cent Lease on Leaf EV If You Buy a Titan

Hart Nissan of Springfield, Virginia, is offering buyers of a 2020 or 2021 Titan pickup a two-year, 10,000-mile-per-year lease on Nissan’s EV for only 99 cents.

www.caranddriver.com