Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[kenliles]

Well subsidized by ICE-profits only in the transition period that has to be survived. Maybe not so much slowing down Tesla as trying to catch up themselves and have some kind of first mover advantage against the other giants.

Agreed. The 'slowing of Tesla' is a strategic mission only. The result will be the opposite imo. It's likely in factt, to be much harder transitioning (from ICE) than starting from scratch given the massive differences. However, I'm intrigued by the possibilities GM may excercise. They have a history of 'starting over' and in the end that may prove beneficial to both themselves and Tesla. Will be fun to watch.

And vgrinshpun has a good point as well- that output will be shared (in whatever proportion the market defines)

ps
(Thanks Auzie)

 

[Auzie]

My take on GM getting into bev space is similar to what has already been stated by many others. Bolt is likely to be a limited edition, compliance car, with the likely drag of tarnished GM brand on it. It is unlikely to be a credible competition to Tesla Model 3.

GM breaking in bev space may have some unintended consequences. Such move may compel other ice makers to respond with their own bev, even with limited editions, to avoid being left behind. Eventually, all of them may have to respond with some sort of pure bev models. Cumulative effect of these responses may just bring the technology tipping point much faster.

 

[kenliles]

Such move may compel other ice makers to respond with their own bev, even with limited editions, to avoid being left behind. Eventually, all of them may have to respond with some sort of pure bev models. Cumulative effect of these responses may just bring the technology tipping point much faster.

+1 -
just what Elon has in mind (ticket to ride to Mars )

 

[vgrinshpun]

GM breaking in bev space may have some unintended consequences. Such move may compel other ice makers to respond with their own bev, even with limited editions, to avoid being left behind. Eventually, all of them may have to respond with some sort of pure bev models. Cumulative effect of these responses may just bring the technology tipping point much faster.

One of the unintended consequences might be that GM and others will realize how hard it is to design a "compelling" (in Elon's talk) vs. compliance car. The amount of work that need to be devoted to develop the holistic approach (including the fast charging) might be just a bit too much, given that conventional car companies will need to do all of this, while still attending to their massive legacy ICE manufacturing. At that point it might be that the route of licensing technology from Tesla might become very attractive., from the point of view of reducing the risk to ICE manufacturers, and avoiding massive additional R&D cost.

Once one of the ICE auto manufacturers "fall" for this, it will open the floodgate because others will either need to do the same (license technology from Tesla), or commit much more resourced to BEV development, if they do not want to follow the footsteps of Kodak.
All of this will be very interesting to watch and has potential of huge rewards for Tesla brand, Tesla company and Tesla shareholders.

 

[Robert.Boston]

I think GM is going to be mightily embarrassed by the Bolt. They're going to offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a nasty little compliance car. Simultaneously, Tesla will offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a sleek BMW 3-series killer. This will not go well for GM.

 

[Krugerrand]

I think GM is going to be mightily embarrassed by the Bolt. They're going to offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a nasty little compliance car. Simultaneously, Tesla will offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a sleek BMW 3-series killer. This will not go well for GM.

++1

 

[kenliles]

I think GM is going to be mightily embarrassed by the Bolt. They're going to offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a nasty little compliance car. Simultaneously, Tesla will offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a sleek BMW 3-series killer. This will not go well for GM.

Seems a likely scenario. A shame if so; I see that as detrimental to Tesla, so I'm hoping GM (and others) grow the EV pie with high volume compelling offers to transition from ICE. Perhaps they will surprise and Elon's goal will be vindicated.

 

[jhm]

Ok, here's my little hunch about GM and all the others playing the compliance game. By opening its pattents, Tesla has opened the door to EV makers in China, India or anywhere else on the planet to make Tesla compatible cars, aka Tesla clones. China has set a DC charging standard at 120 kW. So at first China clones (original models with Tesla compatible technology) a few cars for their domestic market. However, with no IP problem, China is free to send clones to the US. These cars enjoy participaion with the Supercharger Network and even franchises with Tesla to be their dealers within the US. This enables Tesla to be a franchised dealer getting around franchise laws without ever becoming a franchisor! So Tesla sells its own cars into high end markets and clones into low end markets. This leaves the compliance car makers with no where to run. They can't make compliance cars good enough to compete with cheap clones and are stuck buying regulatory credits from the Tesla ecosystem. Losing the compliance game they can no longer turn a profit on gas guzzlers. Clones get far enough ahead in quality electric vehicles, that compliance gamers cannot enter that market. Eventually, they go bankrupt, while Tesla makes money on every electric vehicle sold. End of story.

Just a hunch, the compliance game could prove lethal to those who play it.

 

[CalDreamin]

Ok, here's my little hunch about GM and all the others playing the compliance game. By opening its pattents, Tesla has opened the door to EV makers in China, India or anywhere else on the planet to make Tesla compatible cars, aka Tesla clones.

I doubt it. I'd be surprised if more than a tiny percentage of Tesla's IP and secret sauce are in the form of patents.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Looks like someone at Geneva Auto Show asked at the Audi booth if they really gonna sell their "Tesla-Killer" R8 in the states this time.
Answer from Audi: No, will not be on sale in the USA.
Only small run of hand build cars will be produced in addition to the new R8 V10 gas guzzler vehicle.

Ok bears, if this is the kind of competition / technology Tesla has to fear during the upcoming years, bring on more!

 

[mejojo]

Not only won't the R8 e-tron be for sale, it would be more expensive and slower than a P85D.

The giant claim is that the battery is slightly larger with equivalent density to the Tesla 85kWh.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Not only won't the R8 e-tron be for sale, it would be more expensive and slower than a P85D.

The giant claim is that the battery is slightly larger with equivalent density to the Tesla 85kWh.

Yea, some people here mentioned before that Audi is showing an R8 electric prototype from time to time for marketing reasons only.
As of today I believe this story 100%.
Audi should not show a nice blue body of a car.
They should demonstrate their technology (like max speed, acceleration, range, cell chemistry, engine, inverters, ...).
Here is the tweet from Motor Trend about Audi R8 e-tron not available in USA.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Ford to unveil competitor to GM Bolt

This is great news:
Ford Will Unveil Chevrolet Bolt Competitor This Year

My analysis is that GM is trying to get a jump on Tesla's Model 3, and now Ford wants to keep up with GM. This is exactly the ripple effect that Elon wants Tesla to have, moving the market away from gasoline and towards electricity. As more consumers see and drive more EVs, more people will shop for EVs. To cash in on this growing interest in EVs, Tesla will need to continue to make excellent cars—which I'm confident they will.

 

[Johan]

Yea, some people here mentioned before that Audi is showing an R8 electric prototype from time to time for marketing reasons only.
As of today I believe this story 100%.
Audi should not show a nice blue body of a car.
They should demonstrate their technology (like max speed, acceleration, range, cell chemistry, engine, inverters, ...).
Here is the tweet from Motor Trend about Audi R8 e-tron not available in USA.

It's pretty obvious to me that Audi can never release a car to market that performs worse than Tesla's current car, at a higher price, with much less room and seating. This was the case with the "old" R8 e-Tron that I think they were seriously working on but had to scrap all together when the Model S came to market. I'm afraid that unless Audi really put some back in to it they will be chasing Tesla for many years to come...

 

[Kbsilver]

I think GM is going to be mightily embarrassed by the Bolt. They're going to offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a nasty little compliance car. Simultaneously, Tesla will offer a $35k 200-mile BEV that is a sleek BMW 3-series killer. This will not go well for GM.

Agree except I expect the Tesla BMW 3 killer will be in the $50K area when option the way most people would want it. No different then the cost of a BMW 3 series.

 

[Robert.Boston]

Agree except I expect the Tesla BMW 3 killer will be in the $50K area when option the way most people would want it. No different then the cost of a BMW 3 series.

Sure, most people will option the Model 3 up, but I'm betting that the base Model 3 will be superior in every way to the Bolt or Ford's new car. Why would anyone buy a Bolt when they can get the base-model Model 3 for the same money?

Also, apparently GM is going to have to find a different name for the Bolt, because Tata already sells a "Bolt" in India.

 

[AudubonB]

Also, apparently GM is going to have to find a different name for the Bolt, because Tata already sells a "Bolt" in India.

More than that, only a nut would go for a bolt. To me, that name ranks right down there with the Chevy Nova and Datsun's Fairlady Z. Although I'm sure there are others....

 

[RubberToe]

To me, that name ranks right down there with the Chevy Nova and Datsun's Fairlady Z. Although I'm sure there are others....

Whoa, my 1987 Chevy Nova was one fine car. And it was built in the very same factory where the Model S is built. :smile:

RT

 

[FANGO]

It's pretty obvious to me that Audi can never release a car to market that performs worse than Tesla's current car, at a higher price, with much less room and seating. This was the case with the "old" R8 e-Tron that I think they were seriously working on but had to scrap all together when the Model S came to market. I'm afraid that unless Audi really put some back in to it they will be chasing Tesla for many years to come...

Why not? BMW did it with the i8.

Anyway, the R8 won't happen, because they've been talking about it for 8 years or something with nothing to show for it. Audi are the world leader in electric vehicle press releases. I would be extremely surprised if this car gets made. They're full of ****.

 

[EldestOyster]

If that bit about the NoVa were even true, all they had to do was translate Italian to Spanish and sell it as Nuevo. And as for vaporware, it was long established that Chevy would never really make the Volt. So, never say "never".