Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[SwTslaGrl]

"The Shanghai show offered proof that Chinese brands “can compete with all of the legacy automakers in every way — performance, quality, comfort, there’s nothing they can’t do”, said EV specialist Elliot Richards, joking that he had seen “a lot of worried-looking German men wandering around”...

Guangdong province alone has around three times as many public chargers as the whole of the United States, according to Bloomberg data..."

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[zecar]

"The Shanghai show offered proof that Chinese brands “can compete with all of the legacy automakers in every way — performance, quality, comfort, there’s nothing they can’t do”, said EV specialist Elliot Richards, joking that he had seen “a lot of worried-looking German men wandering around”...

Guangdong province alone has around three times as many public chargers as the whole of the United States, according to Bloomberg data..."

Thai business, investment, Thai stocks, Thai economy news | Bangkok Post

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The question is whether Tesla is becoming an old American brand in China. The young consumer preference in China is clearly shifting away from American car brands.

 

[wdolson]

I think in the coming years it's going to be more and more difficult for non-Chinese brands to compete in China. Tesla can make cars in China, but the Chinese public are becoming more and more interested in Chinese brands only.

It's a truism the world over, if domestic products are available with comparable quality at a price that is competitive with a foreign brand, a large number of the locals will prefer to buy domestic. A lot of Americans will buy foreign car brands because the American public got the impression domestic car companies made inferior products in the 70s and 80s and the perception has stuck, even though the American brands mostly cleaned up their act. My partner still thinks GM cars are junk even though I had a 1992 Buick I drove for 24 years with few problems.

 

[navguy12]

I think in the coming years it's going to be more and more difficult for non-Chinese brands to compete in China. Tesla can make cars in China, but the Chinese public are becoming more and more interested in Chinese brands only.

It's a truism the world over, if domestic products are available with comparable quality at a price that is competitive with a foreign brand, a large number of the locals will prefer to buy domestic. A lot of Americans will buy foreign car brands because the American public got the impression domestic car companies made inferior products in the 70s and 80s and the perception has stuck, even though the American brands mostly cleaned up their act. My partner still thinks GM cars are junk even though I had a 1992 Buick I drove for 24 years with few problems.

Unless Tesla can maintain a halo effect.

Its my understanding that the brand Buick is still a thing in China because the last emperor had one.

 

[DanCar]

Tesla's market share in California for Q1'2023 drops to 60% down from 73% (all of 2022).

Tesla's California market share tumbles despite aggressive price cuts

Tesla's market share in its key California market tumbled in the first quarter of the year despite aggressive price cuts as rivals stepped up, data showed on Friday.

www.reuters.com

Volkswagen, Chevrolet and Kia Corp increased their market shares in California , in the single digits each.
Everyone increased their unit EV sales, so cleaner air for California is a win.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla's market share in California for Q1'2023 drops to 60% down from 73% (all of 2022).

Tesla market share is not a result of demand for Tesla vehicles.

Tesla is going to make as many cars as they can make and will adjust prices to sell them.

On January1,2024 Tesla will have less than 3 days inventory. Tesla will not have legacy OEM typical 50-100 days of sales inventory depending on demand.

Tesla will deliver 1.8M-2M vehicles this year depending on production. Tesla sales aren't limited by the competition.

So Tesla EV market share ups and downs are a function of how demand and production there is for BEV competition.

 

[wdolson]

Unless Tesla can maintain a halo effect.

Its my understanding that the brand Buick is still a thing in China because the last emperor had one.

I believe the last emperor had a bunch of Buicks. GM only keeps Buick alive because of China and a lot of Buicks are made there now.

Tesla market share is not a result of demand for Tesla vehicles.

Tesla is going to make as many cars as they can make and will adjust prices to sell them.

On January1,2024 Tesla will have less than 3 days inventory. Tesla will not have legacy OEM typical 50-100 days of sales inventory depending on demand.

Tesla will deliver 1.8M-2M vehicles this year depending on production. Tesla sales aren't limited by the competition.

So Tesla EV market share ups and downs are a function of how demand and production there is for BEV competition.

Elon Musk's recent behavior isn't helping Tesla. I've heard a lot of people who were positive on Tesla in the past who have soured on the brand in the last several months.

 

[RobStark]

Elon Musk's recent behavior isn't helping Tesla. I've heard a lot of people who were positive on Tesla in the past who have soured on the brand in the last several months.

In the end it is irrelevant to Tesla if it looses a few customers on the Left.

It gains at least as much on the Center and Right.

The vast majority don't care about Elon's political/ideological musings on Twitter.

They will pick a car based on features and value proposition.

Proof is/will be in the pudding. Tesla will continue to grow sales at 40% plus every year with industry leading margins.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla is the most valuable car brand.

Tesla Passes Mercedes & Toyota As Most Valuable Auto Brand - CleanTechnica

Tesla dominating deliveries and production of zero-tailpipe-emission vehicles in recent years, it’s also becoming more valuable as a brand.

cleantechnica.com

 

[JRP3]

It gains at least as much on the Center and Right.

Unlikely, certainly regarding the right, (catturd2 thinks EV's are stupid), but irrelevant. You don't grow the customer base by losing existing and potential new customers through unrelated and unnecessary activities.

Proof is/will be in the pudding. Tesla will continue to grow sales at 40% plus every year with industry leading margins.

We may have just seen the effects of Elon's extracurricular activities on margins.

 

[DanCar]

Video says BYD sales numbers are bogus, quality is very bad, and lots of fires that aren't being reported.

I think this maybe clickbait , but don't know how much truth there is to the headline.

 

[JRP3]

It's his second video about Chinese EV's having problems. I've watched a number of his other videos about China, seems to be informative but I'm no expert on China.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Rivian R1T vs. F-150 Lightning side-by-side towing test. There's also a video. Box trailer was almost 8' tall. Trailer + the Ioniq 5 inside it weighed 7420 lb. They drove a 200 mile loop through CA mountains and high desert at 55 mph. Both trucks towed like champs, passing semis with ease and using regen to hold 55 mph downhill and slow down at stoplights. They each averaged around 1 kWh and 50 cents per mile. They stopped twice to recharge on a 200 mile loop, unhitching each time. All EA chargers worked! Longest leg was 88 miles, I think. Rivian's range estimate was basically useless, Ford's pretty good. They also like Ford's mirrors better and the available camera system to help line up the truck to hitch the trailer. They recommend gas/diesel for long distance towing or really big trailers (e.g. 11 foot high campers).

 

[nativewolf]

Rivian R1T vs. F-150 Lightning side-by-side towing test. There's also a video. Box trailer was almost 8' tall. Trailer + the Ioniq 5 inside it weighed 7420 lb. They drove a 200 mile loop through CA mountains and high desert at 55 mph. Both trucks towed like champs, passing semis with ease and using regen to hold 55 mph downhill and slow down at stoplights. They each averaged around 1 kWh and 50 cents per mile. They stopped twice to recharge on a 200 mile loop, unhitching each time. All EA chargers worked! Longest leg was 88 miles, I think. Rivian's range estimate was basically useless, Ford's pretty good. They also like Ford's mirrors better and the available camera system to help line up the truck to hitch the trailer. They recommend gas/diesel for long distance towing or really big trailers (e.g. 11 foot high campers).

My experience with the lightning mirrors this. Very easy to connect, towing was solid, ea chargers mostly work. Prepare to charge a lot

 

[Knightshade]

Both trucks towed like champs

Does not seem consistent with:

They stopped twice to recharge on a 200 mile loop, unhitching each time.

and

Longest leg was 88 miles

I mean- I get most truck owners never tow anything at all (last measure I saw said 75 percent of truck owners use their truck for towing one time a year or less) so TAM remains big for EV trucks in that sense... but among those who DO this is gonna be pretty useless unless their towing is like taking a boat 20 miles one-way to the lake or something.

Really interested to see how CTs specs come out here-- last I read the Model X will do >200 miles on a charge towing.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Does not seem consistent with:

Sorry to be unclear. I was only talking about driving characteristics at that point. I even named a few.

last I read the Model X will do >200 miles on a charge towing.

Sheer fantasy. Here's a video report about actual Model X towing. Excluding a 192 mile leg with a strong tailwind, he says he can go 120-150 from 100% SOC but generally runs 80-120 miles per leg to avoid very slow charging above 80% SOC (same as Edmunds did in the test I linked).

His trailer is a much lighter tow. It only weighs 2200 lb, a whopping 70% reduction. It's also smaller and much more aerodynamic thanks to a bunch of mods (Kammback, vortex generators, wheel cover, etc.). Put that Edmunds trailer behind his Model X and you're looking at 50-75 mile legs. It's just physics.

A 200 kWh PointyTruck ($100k price) will tow the Edmunds trailer ~200 miles in the extreme max best case but with realistic legs of 100-150 miles. If you want to tow long distance your only real option is gas or diesel.

 

[Knightshade]

Sheer fantasy.

Tesla Model X Sees 71 Percent of Range While Towing a Luxury Travel Trailer

The Tesla Model X managed 235 miles on a single charge while towing a Bowlus Terra Firma.

www.autoweek.com

235 miles on a charge with a 3200 lb 26 foot trailer.

Towing a camper with a Tesla Model X: Thank Elon for Superchargers!

Towing a camper with an electric SUV may be the ultimate test of any fast-charger network. And, for one couple at least, Tesla has passed. “We were like pioneers in a Conestoga wagon,” says Fred Hooper, a Pennsylvanian veterinarian who, with his wife Jenny, just returned from a 7,700 mile...

www.greencarreports.com

3800 lb trailer, "had to find a charger every 200 miles" with consumption ranging from 600-1200 wh per mile


I'm not saying there aren't towing scenarios where you'd get significantly less than 200, but suggesting 200 is a real world result for some doesn't seem 'sheer fantasy' either.

I do wonder what CTs charging rate is gonna look like though

 

[nativewolf]

He is right it is sheer fantasy on the towing, physics are what they are. You get the same reduction with a diesel truck. For practical towing you need gas or diesel. For towing your daughters horse to the local horse show maybe the ct or a ford lightning extended range will work.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Tesla Model X Sees 71 Percent of Range While Towing a Luxury Travel Trailer

The Tesla Model X managed 235 miles on a single charge while towing a Bowlus Terra Firma.

www.autoweek.com

235 miles on a charge with a 3200 lb 26 foot trailer.

First, I trust the Bowlus marketing department about as far as I could throw one of their $300k trailers. That said, you're still comparing apples to oranges. The Bowlus is less than half the weight of the Edmunds trailer, with almost certainly less than half the drag. Aero drag is a function of Cd and cross sectional area. The Bowlus is about the same height, but only 80" wide (vs. 96" for Edmunds). That's 20% less frontal right there, then the semi-circular-ish cross section shaves off another 14% for 34% total reduction. The boattail dramatically reduces Cd, at least 20% but could be easily be 30-40%. That's why eco-modders put those long boattails on their Honda Civics and such.

Towing a camper with a Tesla Model X: Thank Elon for Superchargers!

Towing a camper with an electric SUV may be the ultimate test of any fast-charger network. And, for one couple at least, Tesla has passed. “We were like pioneers in a Conestoga wagon,” says Fred Hooper, a Pennsylvanian veterinarian who, with his wife Jenny, just returned from a 7,700 mile...

www.greencarreports.com

3800 lb trailer, "had to find a charger every 200 miles" with consumption ranging from 600-1200 wh per mile

R-Pod 180 isn't 3800 lb, I've looked at them to tow behind my minivan. Dry weight is a bit over 2900. And the 180 is even 2" narrower than the Bowlus. Anyway, 200 miles is the author's invention, inconsistent with what the owners actually said:
"Jenny reports that the trailer cut the range of their Model X by 45 to 60 percent depending on hills and wind".
X is rated at 348 miles, but real world more like 300. So that's 120-165 miles. 600-1200 Wh/mile comes to 83-166 miles, on an unrealistic 100-0% leg.

They also told the author they'd drive "a couple hours" before breakfast, then eat while charging, then drive "a couple more hours" and stop for lunch. That's 110-120 miles per leg. She said charging added 50% to their travel times, again consistent with one hour charging for every two driving.

This trailer has similar frontal area as Edmunds, though much lighter. Their X showed 347 miles of range at the start. They easily made the 97 mile outbound leg thank to a tailwind. Could have gone 130. But on the return trip they had to slow to 53 mph to make it back at all. So out-and-back average is 115 miles using the full 100-to-0% SOC. So realistic legs of 70-100 miles. Reduce that another 10-15% for the heavier Edmunds trailer.

Towing efficiency is all about the trailer. The tow vehicle is pretty irrelevant. The same Edmunds F-150 Lightning got 50% more range in an earlier test towing a flatbed with a car on it. Worse Cd, but less weight and much lower frontal area. And I'm sure it'd do even better towing the lightweight Bowlus airplane fuselage.

Put the Model X in that Edmunds test and it'd do 60-80 mile legs, with ~100 miles as the no-wind, flat terrain 100-to-0% maximum best case.

 

[nativewolf]

Very much appreciate the time you are taking to explain this @Doggydogworld