Not sure if this will end up being negative. The ban would have forced the competition to adapt which might have kept them alive longer. Imo better to just give the market to Tesla as Tesla uses less resources to do the same thing, less resources/labor/capital to build the factories, less resources/labor/capital used to build the cars, more efficient to use the car etc. ICE/PHEV today makes little sense and BEV keps improving a lot faster than ICE/PHEV so the difference will be more pronounced in the near future.
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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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BYD is going to outsell Tesla this quarter/year (most likely) in terms of "NEVs" which are both PHEVs and BEVs. So far, they're growing at some 90% YoY in 2023.
If that 90% YoY growth figure is maintained throughout 2023, they'll be on track to sell ~1.73m BEVs this year (they sold 911,141 in 2022) some 3.5m "NEVs."
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Oh, are we back to projecting a single months growth as the expected entire year rate for...no actual reason?
Cool. Can we project a week instead? Like-- this past week?
Because their growth sucked out loud as in low single digits for BEVs... and NEGATIVE growth of PHEVs of a slightly larger low single digit
Cool. Can we project a week instead? Like-- this past week?
Because their growth sucked out loud as in low single digits for BEVs... and NEGATIVE growth of PHEVs of a slightly larger low single digit
No, I am projecting 2023 YTD, which is two months not a single month lol
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
The LOL is that you think your reply changes the argument contained in mine in any way 
If we are allowed to cherry pick a short-term sales # and do a "If the ENTIRE YEAR IS LIKE THAT...." then cool.
I pick last week.
Which means BYDs sales will be basically flat YoY for all of 2023.
See why taking short term sales data and pretending it'll be that way all year is dumb yet?
(No, of course not)
Apart from that Tesla at last check was making roughly 6.5 times more profit, per car than BYD because BYD is grabbing most of its growth at the low end of the market where Tesla does not have an offering yet.
If we are allowed to cherry pick a short-term sales # and do a "If the ENTIRE YEAR IS LIKE THAT...." then cool.
I pick last week.
Which means BYDs sales will be basically flat YoY for all of 2023.
See why taking short term sales data and pretending it'll be that way all year is dumb yet?
(No, of course not)
Apart from that Tesla at last check was making roughly 6.5 times more profit, per car than BYD because BYD is grabbing most of its growth at the low end of the market where Tesla does not have an offering yet.
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Doggydogworld
Active Member
C'mon. Why pretend @DarkandStormy is extrapolating a short term blip? You know good and well BYD massively outgrew Tesla for full year 2022 (208% vs. 40%).The LOL is that you think your reply changes the argument contained in mine in any way
If we are allowed to cherry pick a short-term sales # and do a "If the ENTIRE YEAR IS LIKE THAT...." then cool.
I pick last week.
Which means BYDs sales will be basically flat YoY for all of 2023.
See why taking short term sales data and pretending it'll be that way all year is dumb yet?
(No, of course not)
Apart from that Tesla at last check was making roughly 6.5 times more profit, per car than BYD because BYD is grabbing most of its growth at the low end of the market where Tesla does not have an offering yet.
BYD apparently stated a goal to sell 4m EVs this year. I don't think they will -- they're close to saturating China and aside from some small export markets like Aus/NZ they're at zero (USA) or near zero (Europe). Even 3.5m sounds aggressive. But not impossible. And 3m is pretty much in the bag.
And why bring profits into this discussion of unit volume? When TSLAQ clowns bashed Tesla for losing money every year weren't you preaching the gospel that losses were caused by rapid growth? And that when growth slowed the profits would grow? Why doesn't this same logic apply to BYD, which is growing even faster than Tesla did?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Because it's literally what he did? And his only defense was the say it was based one TWO whole months instead of one?
Because the topic of the thread is competition? One competitor making 6x the profit per unit than another is pretty relevant.
If Tesla were willing to only make $1500 profit per vehicle instead of almost 10k that'd have insane impact on demand for their product obviously.
...no?
Maybe you've confused me with someone else?
I probably would've pointed out they have never had a negative gross margin on a vehicle though- unlike say Rivian or Lucid who lose more money the more cars they sell while Tesla did the opposite.
EM knows profits are not the goal now and that is why he is slashing prices to keep sales. Unit volume and market share , Toyota didn’t make real profits for decades. They bought market share, that is the war. Look at a game of Go. BYD is playing Go. The two months are relevant, from the two months we can see they have begun to shift production. Unlike Tesla they are the local national champion. They have told everyone what the goal is and have the wherewithal to achieve the goal. CATL has thrown down a different gauntlet to both firms and offered to put the smaller Chinese firms under their umbrella with huge price discounts.
If you want to argue the data should be a longer period than add the last 3 years and the facts will remain. BYD has begun to shift to volume EV production of real cars. Which was his point. Tesla could see it happening and reacted. Are you going to argue with EM about it?
China car price war extends beyond EVs with discounts near $13,000
A price war started by Elon Musk's Tesla has spread beyond electric cars to gasoline-fueled vehicles as the likes of Citroen, Mercedes-Benz and Chevrolet seek to protect market share.
adiggs
Well-Known Member
I saw that GM offered buyouts to all (I had trouble believing I'd rear that right, so I suspect an error in reporting) executives and office staff. Talk about aggressive headcount reduction. I figure this is what the early stages of dissolution looks like - the company still thinks its ok; it just needs to be a bit smaller and then it'll be fine.
If I worked for GM, depending on the exit package and my ability to get a job elsewhere, I'd be taking the payment to not work for GM, and go work elsewhere. But that's me
RobStark
Well-Known Member
petit_bateau
Active Member
JLR decline
www.theguardian.com
How Jaguar Land Rover fell behind in the race to an electric future – and what it means for the UK
There are fears for UK industry as a whole as the country’s carmaking champion falls further behind wealthy rivals in the race for zero-emission vehicles
www.theguardian.com
First Toyota and BYD co-developed electric bZ3 rolls off the line in China for under $30K
The first Toyota bZ3 electric vehicle powered by BYD technology came off the assembly line this week in China. The...electrek.co
Toyota's bZ3, co-developed with BYD, is out for pre-sales in China now.
-announced October 2022
-Launches May 31, 2023
-372 mile range
-starts around $27k USD
any actual specs? Battery size?
This shows how bad the competition is on the DC Fast Charging, vehicle, and CCS Type 1 connector side:
A VW ID.4 caught on fire, at the charge port, as soon as charging started, Likely from a bad connection. (Not fully seated? Debris in the connector? Worn out connector? Failed latch, it looks OK in the picture, and something, maybe car movement, unseated the connection?) Both the vehicle and the EA charger failed to detect the arc fault and stop the charging automatically. The driver had to stop the charging themselves.
Now, I don't know for certain that Tesla would have detected it and stopped the charging, but given that there have been way more Tesla DCFC sessions than there have been CCS DCFC session in NA, and we have seen any reports of this, I would assume that they have. (Or just that the NACS connector isn't prone to this failure.)
A VW ID.4 caught on fire, at the charge port, as soon as charging started, Likely from a bad connection. (Not fully seated? Debris in the connector? Worn out connector? Failed latch, it looks OK in the picture, and something, maybe car movement, unseated the connection?) Both the vehicle and the EA charger failed to detect the arc fault and stop the charging automatically. The driver had to stop the charging themselves.
Now, I don't know for certain that Tesla would have detected it and stopped the charging, but given that there have been way more Tesla DCFC sessions than there have been CCS DCFC session in NA, and we have seen any reports of this, I would assume that they have. (Or just that the NACS connector isn't prone to this failure.)
Not meant as a criticism of your post at all; just thought the difference in margin was interesting.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
GM has to sell compliance ICEv at a loss in order to sell profitable ICEv.
GM makes money on body on frame trucks and SUVs. Plus specialty V8 vehicles like Corvette and Cadillac Blackwings. In China GM sells luxury Buick minivans preferred by Chinese VIPs at margins comparable to Escalade . These profitable GM vehicles sell at Tesla like margins. Everything else sells at negative margin.
GM is re-entering Europe. It is currently selling a handful of Corvettes and ICE Escalades but will overwhelmingly sell BEVs in the future. After 2030 it will only sell BEVs in Europe.
Tesla doesn't have to sell compliance vehicles at a loss in order to sell their profitable vehicles. Hence better overall margins.
Moving forward GM will replace negative margin compliance ICEv with margin positive BEVs to meet compliance. After 2030 Cadillac plans to be BEV only. After 2035 GM plans to be BEV only.
GM can't go from selling 10M ICEv to selling 10M BEVs overnight. Yes, last year GM sold a bit over 6M vehicles. I think GM will hold steady for a couple of years and then expand volume.
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Has anyone had experience with Huawei HarmonyOS? Twitter seems to think it's pretty good.
It may end up dominating in China, but it will have a hard time outside of China because it's Huawei who are known for spyware.
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