Tesla Confirms 325.000 reservations by now !

[pmich80]

I'm not so sure that you'd get that response. I will bet that there are a fairly significant number of people who have signed up for the Model 3, who test drive an S on a whim, who then get really excited and decide that they can't wait 2-4 years, and who then start looking at Model S 70s or at CPO cars.

Besides... the reps at the showroom are non-commission. And it looks good for Tesla to have a lot of people/excitement around the showroom. I encourage you to go take one for a ride. Now... I think I might tell the rep a slightly different story. I think I might say something along the line of "I've got a 3 on order, but I am seriously considering whether I want to wait 4 years and so I'm thinking about a 70.".

The bigger risk, I would say, is that you might end up turning your white lie into reality. My mistake was to take a ride in my friend's P85 - having no intent other than to go for a fun ride. Sure enough, 2 weeks later I was on the Tesla website pushing "Buy" on a P85D! Riding in an S is like a shot of heroin. Be very careful because you might not be able to control what happens next!

I'd be scared because I can't afford the Model S without jeopardizing my future. hahah I should disconnect my internet before I go for a test drive.

 

[Kurt Foster]

Yes, that's exactly what I think. $1,000 isn't much nowadays, and it's 100% refundable just for asking. That's a fairly mild commitment in my books. You've got a mix of speculators in there and people who hope to be able to afford it by then but wont be able to when the time arrives. And you've got some folks who are caught up in the hype but, when reality hits, will realize that an EV isn't going to work because of where they live or how they use it. I own a Model S and to be quite honest, the limitations are such that I couldn't own it as my only car, much as I would like to.

That makes total sence, the electric car still has a bit of work to do to get fundementally cheaper than gas cars and go more range. I see that future as in possibly the next 5 years. I say that because of the gigafactory obviously...

What I think is happening right now is Tesla has finally gotten to the point where the Tesla Model S was for the luxury sedan market. Once the battery car gets higher range and better efficency and so on, people will start to sell off thier gas cars. But I only see that happening in the next 5-10 years.

In fact, I live on a gravel road, so having any sedan is kind of annoying. But once I saw that mailman video, how he drives 80 miles everyday on a gravel road, and he had no problems. The model 3 seems like a no brainer.

 

[sandpiper]

I just scheduled a test drive. i cant resist. I hope they don't get annoyed since i can't afford an S

Not a chance. You've already identified yourself as a fan, willing to drop some $$$ on an EV. Getting you into the store to look at an S is just good business. Maybe you won't buy a new S now. But... a 2013 S60 might be close to your price range.

 

[pmich80]

Not a chance. You've already identified yourself as a fan, willing to drop some $$$ on an EV. Getting you into the store to look at an S is just good business. Maybe you won't buy a new S now. But... a 2013 S60 might be close to your price range.

Don't tempt me. haha dear god i already starting looking online now.

 

[sandpiper]

Don't tempt me. haha dear god i already starting looking online now.

Here... let me help put the needle in.

Tesla: Model S TECH HTD SEATS NAV REAR CAM

 

[johnny2five]

Of the 10 people I mentioned, 4 were in line at 5am. I know it's a very small sample size, but I also know of a few speculators who went on day 1 (they wasted their time IMO). I think the speculation/I-want-to-have-the-option group of people is larger than most people think.

With that said...my guess is 60% to 70% of people will follow-through with their reservation...40% of reservations holders are fully committed, and the remaining 60%, about half will drop out.

 

[EVnut]

In fact, I live on a gravel road, so having any sedan is kind of annoying. But once I saw that mailman video, how he drives 80 miles everyday on a gravel road, and he had no problems. The model 3 seems like a no brainer.

Assuming similar types of cars, I've never understood why anybody would think that an EV would be somehow worse on unimproved roads. In fact, they should be better as they have no air intake to filter and get clogged with dust, etc. What is it that folks worry about with EVs off the pavement?

 

[Pollux]

Anybody got data on reservation-to-actual sales rates for Model S, Model X, Roadster?

Also: assume the "worst", a 50% take rate on Model 3 reservations. At 325K reservations as of yesterday, it's reasonable to project that they will reach at least 350K reservations before Model 3 arrives. (Honestly, I think 350K is unreasonably way way way low.) At 50%, you've got 175K reservations for a car that isn't even finished. I'm not sure what anyone is worried about in this regard: that's a stupefying number. I'm trying to remember the GM/Chevy Bolt build target... 20K units per year? Let's say 50K. So M3 at 50% reservation take rate is over 3 years of Bolt production. These are just insane numbers.

Finally: at a 10% take rate -- i.e., 90% of folks change their minds! -- you've still got more production that was reserved for Model S and probably more than for Model X.... further assuming that Model 3 completely stops accumulating new reservations going forward.

I'm not sure it matters what the underlying motivations are of the reservation holders. The actual production Model 3 would have to be a complete #fail to drive the reservation take rate down to 10%.

Alan

P.S. Elon's tweet that something like 5% or less of the reservations were for the maximum (two spots) means that there isn't much speculation going on with these reservations rings true to me. I think people were reserving these cars with very specific targets in mind, usually themselves or their own households. I reserved two, one for my household and one for my father.

 

[EVnut]

P.S. Elon's tweet that something like 5% or less of the reservations were for the maximum (two spots) means that there isn't much speculation going on

Is the assumption that most people who reserve two (you, me, several of my friends) are "speculating" and that the holders of single reservations are not speculating? I'm not sure I follow the logic. And I actually studied logic.

 

[Paul Carter]

Is the assumption that most people who reserve two (you, me, several of my friends) are "speculating" and that the holders of single reservations are not speculating? I'm not sure I follow the logic. And I actually studied logic.

Typically speculators will buy things like 12 tickets at time if they are allowed. Since 2 were allowed and very few took advantage, I can see how you can come to this kind of conclusion.

 

[Pollux]

Is the assumption that most people who reserve two (you, me, several of my friends) are "speculating" and that the holders of single reservations are not speculating? I'm not sure I follow the logic. And I actually studied logic.

I believe that to be the case and agree that the assumption is just that... an assumption.

My hunch is that most (all?) of the 5% who reserved two have more ready cash at hand than the average bear and are probably hard-core Tesla fans to boot; and so I suspect those people will do little or no speculating. And for the 95% reserving just 1, I believe nearly all of them have a specific use in mind for the vehicle. I am hard put to believe that folks who put down $1K did so thinking that they'd flip the car two years from now. But ultimately this is a fact-free paragraph; just opinions.

 

[EVnut]

Got it. Thanks, guys. Just seems odd to be on the receiving end of a back-handed accusation of being a "speculator" because I reserved two. It is pretty amazing how few ended up reserving two when you consider the relatively low (and refundable!) barrier to entry.

 

[mistermonty705]

Thank you to everyone who responded. I will call them to test drive !


ETA: I scheduled! Even though I've reserved a model 3, I may not be able to drive because I'm under 25. So my parents will come with me just in case. Hopefully they at least let me drive it in the parking lot lol

 

[Model S M.D.]

I highly recommend scheduling a test drive in a Model S. The Tesla test drive experience is all about education and showing you what an electric car can do, there's no pressure AT ALL. I actually went on several test drives and a couple of overnight ones as well Right now is actually a good time to schedule one, since it seems like there are lots of inventory probably due to an imminent Model S refresh and folks delaying their orders.

The only reason I would recommend against scheduling a test drive is because once you test drive a Model S, you WILL want to buy one. Same thing happened to yours truly.

Good luck and have fun!

I just scheduled a test drive. i cant resist. I hope they don't get annoyed since i can't afford an S

I wanted to test drive, but I know that the Model S I would REALLLYY want would be twice as much as my model 3 budget. I did not want to waste those poor guys' time. Even though they are right around the corner from me.

I imagine it going something like this :

Me : "Hi! I reserved a model 3. I just wanted to test drive an S"

Tesla dude: "Oh great. Another poor fangirl"

 

[deonb]

You can't make a baby in 1 month by using 9 women.

Somebody above marked that post of mine as "informative"...

uhmmm...

 

[rhambus]

I have been thinking about the deposit situation and how many are likely to back out. I think the answer is "not many" if it's still possible to get your car with the tax credit, or get it within a reasonable amount of time if you are not ordering the high-end version. The fact is that the actual percentage of people who have $1000 to throw around on spec and sight unseen is not that substantial, even if it's refundable.

I think what this really shows is how much pent-up demand there is for a car like this and how massively the industry (minus Tesla) has dropped the ball on the opportunity to make a decent looking, long range, electric car for a reasonable price. I mean, upwards of 300,000 reservations in such a short time? That sort of thing only happens when there is a huge mismatch between demand and supply. And while Tesla tech is undoubtedly top of the line, the way they are planning to do it is old-school vertical integration and building big ole facilities like the Gigafactory to pump out heavy metal at scale. (They don't have magic batteries or material science. It's all existing tech.) In other words, the same thing any other big company could to, and that car companies could "easily" do. (I know it's not actually easy but these guys move huge amounts of metal and other resources every day.) How in the world did their market research fail so miserably? You're telling me Ford could not have put out a big ole electric Taurus SHO by now? Or GM could not produce a high-end Cadillac? FCA, I admit, is probably a basket case. But Toyota? This is an epic fail on a huge scale. TESLA DOES NOT EVEN ADVERTISE and the rest of these companies and their dealers practically pave the TV airwaves with ads. Sheesh.

 

[ecarfan]

I think some people are putting too much emphasis on the future availability of the tax credit as being a major factor in whether or not a 3 reservation holder will wait for the 3 launch and then go ahead and purchase the car.

In my opinion, people with the motivation and financial means to put down $1,000 interest free for 2 years are, in most cases, not driven by the EV tax credit but simply want a Tesla Model 3 over any other car.

For those with incomes well above the national average (in the US that was about $54K median family income in 2014) the reservation deposit amount may seem modest if not trivial. But those who are in the market for a $35K car are often not high income buyers.

Yes I know there are exceptions, I am making a general statement. I predict that the vast majority of current 3 reservation holders will follow through and buy one regardless of the tax credit situation in 2018. And over the next two years, the number of people who make new reservations will vastly outnumber the people who ask for their deposit back and drop off the reservation list.

By late 2017 I expect there will be well over half a million reservation holders who will follow through and buy a 3. Many of them won't get their car until 2019.

What Tesla has accomplished with the Model 3 Part 1 reveal is nothing short of astonishing. Zero mass market advertising resulted in by far the biggest product launch in history, by multiple measures. Part 2 of the reveal will also astonish.

TSLA is undervalued, because the Tesla Energy division has even greater market potential than the vehicle division. Full disclosure: I am long TSLA.

Thanks Elon. Keep up the good work!

 

[Electroman]

Somebody above marked that post of mine as "informative"...
View attachment 171343

uhmmm...

View attachment 171344

And someone rated that post of yours as "Helpful"

 

[jerry33]

I think some people are putting too much emphasis on the future availability of the tax credit as being a major factor in whether or not a 3 reservation holder will wait for the 3 launch and then go ahead and purchase the car.

In my opinion, people with the motivation and financial means to put down $1,000 interest free for 2 years are, in most cases, not driven by the EV tax credit but simply want a Tesla Model 3 over any other car.

Agreed. There will be a few dropouts because of changing personal situations and such just as there were with the S and X, but it will be small. While no one turns down free money, that's not the driving factor for most. I'd guess that just about every U.S. purchaser that has reserved now will get either the full tax credit or a partial tax credit because only cars sold in the U.S. are counted.

 

[Snow Drift]

Got it. Thanks, guys. Just seems odd to be on the receiving end of a back-handed accusation of being a "speculator" because I reserved two. It is pretty amazing how few ended up reserving two when you consider the relatively low (and refundable!) barrier to entry.

Don't take it as a jab. If you title/use two, you're awesome. But, a lot of people will buy the max and sell them at a mark up. They are scalpers or speculators. Most families don't own two of the same car.

Even Apple limits the number of iPhones for this reason.

Trust us, Elon appreciates you helping the cause.