Tesla cuts 60kWh Model S, entry-level Model S is now 70D.

[eepic]

OK, the verdict is in.

According to the Car and Driver instrumented test (thanks to Anticitizen13.7 for posting) the weight of the 70D is 4608lbs, while the weight of now defunct 60D was essentially the same - 4597lbs according to the Road & Track data back from Oct. 9 article published right after the "D" event. This is consistent with my theory that the battery in 70D weighs the same as the battery in 60, contains the same quantity of cells, but each cell, due to higher volumetric and gravimetric energy density contains about 16.7% more energy. This is consistent with the conclusion that 70D contains new generation of the cells, due to show up in Model X, and, perhaps a little later in other variants of Model S.

Hello 300+ EPA range in Model S??

I'm going to play devil's advocate here... are we concluding based off two different weight measurements by two separate entities several months apart? We also don't know the trim levels, accessories, tires/rims for either test.

As much as I hope they have moved to a newer chemistry, we also have evidence from a 'spokesperson' that it's specifically more cells, not newer cells. 2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3) I'm not saying this article/source is necessarily correct, but I think we need more evidence before we can come to a conclusion.

 

[JRP3]

OK, the verdict is in.

According to the Car and Driver instrumented test (thanks to Anticitizen13.7 for posting) the weight of the 70D is 4608lbs, while the weight of now defunct 60D was essentially the same - 4597lbs according to the Road & Track data back from Oct. 9 article published right after the "D" event.

Did the 60D ever actually exist, were they ever sold? Printed specs often differ from the real world, I don't think any conclusions can be drawn from these numbers.

 

[vgrinshpun]

What you guys forgetting is that we have **two** sets of data that strongly suggest next gen. cells in 70D: range (as was shown in my chart) and, now, weight.

To put weight data is perspective, the data listed in the October R&T article are consistent with the data included in Model S Manual (p.149, March 31, 2015 Edition).

MS 60 is listed in the Manual at 4407lbs, while 60D is listed in R&T at 4597lbs, including 176lbs added for dual motor. 4597-176=4421 (+14lbs as compared to Manual).

MS 85 is listed in the Manual at 4630lbs, while 85D is listed in R&T at 4824lbs, including adder 176lbs for dual motor. 4824-176=4658 (+18lbs as compared to Manual).

If you'd like to maintain that the new gen. cells are not there, you will now need to be willing to dismiss two sets of data: range and weight.

 

[scaesare]

I'm as big a fan as anyone for a greater energy density cell, and definitely would expect they'd have one almost 3 years after Model S launch. However Elon did say a couple of conference calls back that they've been making incremental improvements all over the car and the weight savings totaled a couple hundred pounds. I didn't believe it at the time, but if true might explain weight difference as something other than energy density. Hope not though. I would also think a front motor would weight in the 75 lbs.+ range.

This.

Cars later than mine weighed 200lbs less, despite having the same pack. Elon even discussed some of the areas where for the sake of expediency in product design they chose to not necessarily optimize everything they possibly could. He singled out the door pillars' use of boron-steel inserts for rigidity as something they might be able to refine further.

Correlation != causation.

 

[JRP3]

If you'd like to maintain that the new gen. cells are not there, you will now need to be willing to dismiss two sets of data: range and weight.

Isn't that really one data point? You claim the reduced weight is the result of the new cell, and that the reduced weight provides greater range. Reduced weight could come from other areas, not a new cell, and the extra range could be the result of more than just the weight reduction, (think of the lower rolling resistance tricks supposedly being implemented on the Roadster upgrade package).

 

[vgrinshpun]

This.

Cars later than mine weighed 200lbs less, despite having the same pack. Elon even discussed some of the areas where for the sake of expediency in product design they chose to not necessarily optimize everything they possibly could. He singled out the door pillars' use of boron-steel inserts for rigidity as something they might be able to refine further.

Correlation != causation.

I am a huge Elon's fan, but this reference is just not consistent with actual data. First, the weights listed in the current Manual are the same as in previous revisions, and, as I posted in the previous message are very close to the data published by R&T last October.

I am challenging you to provide any weight data provided over the course of almost 3years of MS production, either from Tesla or the car magazines that show these mythical couple hundreds of pounds of "lost" weight. Before you do that, dismissing *two* sets of data - one on range and another on weight - does not seem to be logical thing to do.

I am happy to keep differing opinion on the next gen. cells in 70D with you. I just do not think that you can say that it is slam dunk that 70D does not contain new gen. cells. Not when data point in other direction.

 

[Electricfan]

As much as I hope they have moved to a newer chemistry, we also have evidence from a 'spokesperson' that it's specifically more cells, not newer cells.

I have purchased a new 85S (waiting on delivery), and I asked my DES about this specifically. She said the batteries in my new car are exactly like the batteries in my old car (I had a 2013 Model S 85kwh). FWIW.

Just my opinion, but if Tesla had a "next gen" battery that weighed less, they'd be blasting that news from the highest mountaintop! No reason whatsoever to hide it. I would bet my bottom dollar when Tesla has a battery breakthrough (which reduced weight would definitely be!) they will NOT keep silent about it.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I'm going to play devil's advocate here... are we concluding based off two different weight measurements by two separate entities several months apart? We also don't know the trim levels, accessories, tires/rims for either test.

As much as I hope they have moved to a newer chemistry, we also have evidence from a 'spokesperson' that it's specifically more cells, not newer cells. 2015 Tesla Model S 70D: First Drive Of New Electric Car Base Model (Page 3) I'm not saying this article/source is necessarily correct, but I think we need more evidence before we can come to a conclusion.

I also agree with this. There are several assumptions made (made in order to support the conclusions) as well as differing data sets with no control (no knowledge of options like air suspension, rear seats, dual chargers, etc) that could significantly impact the weight on either data source. It's just not scientific enough to make these kinds of "scientific" conclusions, especially given that we've been supposedly told from Tesla that it's more cells, not better cells.

Until Tesla comes out and announces better cell technology now, I don't believe they're using new cells. If they are, I don't see any reason to hold that back and not announce a higher range Model S now. It also makes the production like more complicated making one line of packs for the 85/85D cars, and a different line for the 70D cars. Makes no sense. And I don't believe they'd be putting higher capacity cells in all the cars and not allowing people to use it, or not selling a new model with higher range.

See: Occam's razor - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Among competing hypotheses that predict equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions should be selected

 

[eepic]

What you guys forgetting is that we have **two** sets of data that strongly suggest next gen. cells in 70D: range (as was shown in my chart) and, now, weight.

If you'd like to maintain that the new gen. cells are not there, you will now need to be willing to dismiss two sets of data: range and weight.

I'm not dismissing any data. To be a bit more specific, both sets of data indicate the weight of the 70D is not significantly higher than the 60D, with range being a function of it. However there could be other explanations to the 70D weight being lower, like component weight optimizations over time.

This could mean both sets of your data are correct, and GreenCarReports is correct. Whereas the theory of better cells requires dismissing the GreenCarReports article as non-credible.

Out of curiousity, let me try to make a case for weight optimizations:

Recalling tidbits from Elon
- Average of ~20 hardware changes per week
- About 200 lbs shaved from MS from mid 2012 through mid 2014

If we do a (very unscientific) ballpark linear average, that's about 100 lbs reduction/year, or 50 lbs per half year. So from October through April, approximately half a year, we could plausibly have another 50 lb improvement. That would be very close to the numbers you have.

- - - Updated - - -

I have purchased a new 85S (waiting on delivery), and I asked my DES about this specifically. She said the batteries in my new car are exactly like the batteries in my old car (I had a 2013 Model S 85kwh). FWIW.

Just my opinion, but if Tesla had a "next gen" battery that weighed less, they'd be blasting that news from the highest mountaintop! No reason whatsoever to hide it. I would bet my bottom dollar when Tesla has a battery breakthrough (which reduced weight would definitely be!) they will NOT keep silent about it.

Countering my own argument for a moment, I would say it's also possible TM is keeping hush (even directly saying the contrary) about new cells until the X announcement with a new step change up from 85. It would certainly be too easy for us, and hence the media, to assume a larger battery than 85kWh if they confirm new cells in the 70, thus stealing thunder from the X launch.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I have purchased a new 85S (waiting on delivery), and I asked my DES about this specifically. She said the batteries in my new car are exactly like the batteries in my old car (I had a 2013 Model S 85kwh). FWIW.

Just my opinion, but if Tesla had a "next gen" battery that weighed less, they'd be blasting that news from the highest mountaintop! No reason whatsoever to hide it. I would bet my bottom dollar when Tesla has a battery breakthrough (which reduced weight would definitely be!) they will NOT keep silent about it.

Not if they have not enough of the new gen. cells to put it in all cars, just enough for 70D. They will then will have every incentive in the world to keep quiet about this, because people will stop buying the 85 kWh cars, waiting for the next gen cells.

In case you are not aware of this, the EPA range of 70D is actually 245 miles, "voluntarily" reduced by Tesla according to the note in EPA data base which lists highway and city numbers that produce the actual 245 miles range, but instead list 240 miles, noting that overall range was "voluntarily" reduced by the manufacturer. You can see my original post to which I was replying today for reference and more info on this.

 

[eepic]

I am a huge Elon's fan, but this reference is just not consistent with actual data. First, the weights listed in the current Manual are the same as in previous revisions, and, as I posted in the previous message are very close to the data published by R&T last October.

I am challenging you to provide any weight data provided over the course of almost 3years of MS production, either from Tesla or the car magazines that show these mythical couple hundreds of pounds of "lost" weight. Before you do that, dismissing *two* sets of data - one on range and another on weight - does not seem to be logical thing to do.

I am happy to keep differing opinion on the next gen. cells in 70D with you. I just do not think that you can say that it is slam dunk that 70D does not contain new gen. cells. Not when data point in other direction.

2014 Q2 Earnings Call last year:

<Q - Colin W. Rusch>: Okay. That's perfect. And then can you talk about the weight reduction efforts that you've got going on right now with the vehicles and how should we think about the cadence of pulling weight out of the vehicle and potential translation of that into extended range?


<A - Elon R. Musk>: Well the partial on weight versus range, it's not super strong. There is an improvement but it's not a huge improvement. But the Model S has gotten steadily lighter over time. But it's really like, it's a quarter pound here, half pound there, but the Model S in production today is at least a few hundred pounds less than it started production. And we'll continue to see improvements over time. So but to get to a step-change – I mean, there's so many pieces in the car, like you've got the battery pack, the motor, the transmission or the gearbox, the tires and heels, the seats. I think if you had a big improvement in any one of those items, maybe with the exception of the battery pack, it only changes the weight of the car by 1%, 2% or something. These are all good things, but there's not one big block of lead sitting in the car that one can remove. It requires whittling away at a whole bunch of things.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I'm not dismissing any data. To be a bit more specific, both sets of data indicate the weight of the 70D is not significantly higher than the 60D, with range being a function of it. However there could be other explanations to the 70D weight being lower, like component weight optimizations over time.

This could mean both sets of your data are correct, and GreenCarReports is correct. Whereas the theory of better cells requires dismissing the GreenCarReports article as non-credible.

Out of curiousity, let me try to make a case for weight optimizations:

Recalling tidbits from Elon
- Average of ~20 hardware changes per week
- About 200 lbs shaved from MS from mid 2012 through mid 2014

If we do a (very unscientific) ballpark linear average, that's about 100 lbs reduction/year, or 50 lbs per half year. So from October through April, approximately half a year, we could plausibly have another 50 lb improvement. That would be very close to the numbers you have.

- - - Updated - - -



Countering my own argument for a moment, I would say it's also possible TM is keeping hush (even directly saying the contrary) about new cells until the X announcement with a new step change up from 85. It would certainly be too easy for us, and hence the media, to assume a larger battery than 85kWh if they confirm new cells in the 70, thus stealing thunder from the X launch.

If 70D has weight improvement over 60 due to optimizations, how come we do not see the same improvements in 85D?? The body for both cars is manufactured on the same equipment, using the same process.

I challenge you to come with actual data indicating that cars lost weight with time. The data might exist, I just did not see anybody ever referencing such data.

- - - Updated - - -

2014 Q2 Earnings Call last year:

<Q - Colin W. Rusch>: Okay. That's perfect. And then can you talk about the weight reduction efforts that you've got going on right now with the vehicles and how should we think about the cadence of pulling weight out of the vehicle and potential translation of that into extended range?


<A - Elon R. Musk>: Well the partial on weight versus range, it's not super strong. There is an improvement but it's not a huge improvement. But the Model S has gotten steadily lighter over time. But it's really like, it's a quarter pound here, half pound there, but the Model S in production today is at least a few hundred pounds less than it started production. And we'll continue to see improvements over time. So but to get to a step-change – I mean, there's so many pieces in the car, like you've got the battery pack, the motor, the transmission or the gearbox, the tires and heels, the seats. I think if you had a big improvement in any one of those items, maybe with the exception of the battery pack, it only changes the weight of the car by 1%, 2% or something. These are all good things, but there's not one big block of lead sitting in the car that one can remove. It requires whittling away at a whole bunch of things.

I am well aware of this quote. The weight data published by the company and car magazines **after** the Q2 ER, as I posted up thread, contradict Elon's assertion.

 

[Electricfan]

Not if they have not enough of the new gen. cells to put it in all cars, just enough for 70D. They will then will have every incentive in the world to keep quiet about this, because people will stop buying the 85 kWh cars, waiting for the next gen cells

While I pray you are right, because improved batteries would rank up there with a cure for cancer in my opinion, I just don't buy it. Hope I'm wrong.

I cannot wait for the day when there is an electric car available that costs $25k, seats 5, goes 500 miles on a charge, can be recharged in 10 minutes, and will not catch fire under any circumstances. When that day comes, the ICE is dead. And humanity will take a giant leap forward in terms of our long-term survival prospects.

 

[HankLloydRight]

I am well aware of this quote. The weight data published by the company and car magazines **after** the Q2 ER, as I posted up thread, contradict Elon's assertion.

Still too many unknowns (options, etc) and assumptions made to be able to make any scientific conclusions based on the two weight data points. It's really apples and oranges. Or apples and something else. Sorry.


ETA: If you had to identically optioned cars (except for battery size), manufactured during the same time period, and measured on the same scales, on the same day, and came up with those numbers, you'd have a case. Without those kinds of controls, I don't think you can make any conclusions on the use of next gen cells.

 

[iKhalid]

I think it's easier to just ask two owners of a new 85D and a 70D to go weigh their cars making sure both have similar configurations (at least for the pano roof and rear facing seats) and use the same scale to get the real difference. By doing this, you can answer many questions including:
1. Did the weight change over time?
2. Is the 70D lighter than the 85D?

I have a feeling that the cells in the 70D are different because, from history, they don't wait to release a new technology. When the X is introduced officially, they will have a bigger battery of the same new cells (90 maybe?)... Anything more than that is not worth the added weight, in addition to the increasing number of Superchargers. This is just a guess as you can tell.

 

[eepic]

If 70D has weight improvement over 60 due to optimizations, how come we do not see the same improvements in 85D?? The body for both cars is manufactured on the same equipment, using the same process.

I challenge you to come with actual data indicating that cars lost weight with time. The data might exist, I just did not see anybody ever referencing such data.

- - - Updated - - -

I am well aware of this quote. The weight data published by the company and car magazines **after** the Q2 ER, as I posted up thread, contradict Elon's assertion.

Fair enough, I can't say I've dug through any specific published numbers. My gut feel is the published weight numbers aren't always holding the same features and accessories as a constant for an apples-to-apples comparison on battery pack weight, so I'm still going to take Elon's word for it.

Perhaps we'll just have to agree to disagree :wink:, though I do hope you end up being correct and there are new and improved cells out there.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Fair enough, I can't say I've dug through any specific published numbers. My gut feel is the published weight numbers aren't always holding the same features and accessories as a constant for an apples-to-apples comparison on battery pack weight, so I'm still going to take Elon's word for it.

Perhaps we'll just have to agree to disagree :wink:, though I do hope you end up being correct and there are new and improved cells out there.

Just consider this simple thing: if there were "hundreds" of pounds of weight savings over time, wouldn't 85D weigh **less** than the original 85, i.e. 4630lbs?? I would like to see a single post with proper reference pointing this out. I suspect that the reason I did not see any data bearing this out (and I really specifically looked for it) is because the data does not exist.

 

[scaesare]

I am a huge Elon's fan, but this reference is just not consistent with actual data. First, the weights listed in the current Manual are the same as in previous revisions, and, as I posted in the previous message are very close to the data published by R&T last October.

You can choose to dismiss what Elon or others have stated... but we know that there have been many running changes (additional battery armor, for instance) along the way that materially change the weight of the car. Yet the manual's specification for curb weight hasn't been updated for each of those hundreds of times the vehicle has been changed. So relying on the exact manual curb weight spec ins't authoritative.

I am challenging you to provide any weight data provided over the course of almost 3years of MS production, either from Tesla or the car magazines that show these mythical couple hundreds of pounds of "lost" weight. Before you do that, dismissing *two* sets of data - one on range and another on weight - does not seem to be logical thing to do.

I'm not dismissing anything. I'm stating that assuming a change is weight MUST be due to battery chemistry differences and COULD NOT be due to any other change in the cars, despite the CEO stating that weight changes are taking place is a logical fallacy.

I repeat: correlation != causation

I am happy to keep differing opinion on the next gen. cells in 70D with you. I just do not think that you can say that it is slam dunk that 70D does not contain new gen. cells. Not when data point in other direction.

I made no mention of my opinion of the cells here[1], and most certainly didn't characterize anything as a "slam dunk". My point again is that there may be other factors accounting for weight change.


[1] Although as I have posted elsewhere, I do in fact believe the cells in the 70 are the same as the existing chemistry cells.

 

[JRP3]

<A - Elon R. Musk>: Well the partial on weight versus range, it's not super strong. There is an improvement but it's not a huge improvement.

This is key. Vgrin is saying new cells = lighter = more range. Elon is saying weight is not a large component of range, within the context of a 100 or 200 lbs. That is consistent with what we already know. Range does not change noticeably with a 200lb passenger compared to a single driver. So even if there are new cells and even if the weight reduction is related to the new cells that does not explain the range increase. What might better explain it is if the 70kWh pack is slightly over 70kWh and a bit more of the rated capacity is available for use. From tests the "85"kWh pack seems a bit under 85kWh, maybe the 70 is a bit over 70kWh. Maybe they are more comfortable using a larger percentage of pack capacity. There are simply a number of other possible explanations for the extra range besides new cells.

 

[MartinAustin]

This is key. Vgrin is saying new cells = lighter = more range.

I think Vgrin was focusing on the confirmation that battery advances are in fact happening, versus standing still.

It's sorta like seeing confirmation that Evolution actually happens, rather than Darwin coming up with the theory but we don't actually ever seeing it happen.