Tesla EV Tax Credits coming back?

[rlzalusky]

If that were true, then how do you explain the outcomes of the current EV incentives? Has the average price of BEV's in the US gone up or gone down? Has Detroit been able to produce an affordable, reliable, attractive BEV, with those incentives? $7500 per vehicle should have put a lot of "butts in cars", but it actually hasn't for them. They had the competence to build, the dealer and advertising network to promote and deliver, the service bays to address issues, so why haven't they delivered?

The one manufacturer that doesn't qualify for those incentives anymore has still managed to take the lions share of the market and continues to raise prices. Tesla are not competing for Civics/Accords/Camry buyers, they're going upmarket, and the average income levels of their buyer demographics bears that out. They have a huge headstart in material science, in technology, and didn't sit around making compliance cars with their thumbs up their collective backsides for the past decade, like the encumbents.

So this fictional narrative about "volume generates lower cost models" is bollocks in this instance, and could use a kickstart by good old mommy government. We tip the scales all the time on market forces, Tesla already has great tailwinds at their backs. Let's put some wind behind others, maybe it'll even push Tesla to finally get serious about producing lower cost models.

Going back to some of the original counter proposals to the current BBB:
Lower the AGI for qualification, lower the MSRP of the vehicle.

While I appreciate alternate perspectives here, they don't pass the logic and reality test IMHO. With that, I'll relinquish the mic and let the rest of y'all parley over what is surely NOT one of lifes biggest existential crisis ;-)

You are thinking very short term. Look at all the manufacturers coming on line in the next couple of years. Should we put a dent in their plans? Do you feel any urgency. Your last line indicates you do not believe in global warming. You also don't seem to get that disposable cash and affordability greatly varies by geography. You can make 100K+ and still not afford to live in many places. Perhaps you would like to see pictures of streets filled with RVs because they can't afford traditional housing on salaries that would be wonderful somewhere else. You can't apply AGI on a national basis so just stop it.

 

[Corndart]

You are thinking very short term. Look at all the manufacturers coming on line in the next couple of years. Should we put a dent in their plans? Do you feel any urgency. Your last line indicates you do not believe in global warming. You also don't seem to get that disposable cash and affordability greatly varies by geography. You can make 100K+ and still not afford to live in many places. Perhaps you would like to see pictures of streets filled with RVs because they can't afford traditional housing on salaries that would be wonderful somewhere else. You can't apply AGI on a national basis so just stop it.

You know what they say about assumptions...

Don't misconstrue my views re: existential crisis based on a single sentence. If you'd tracked some of my earlier posts, I've already opined about this being far from ideal in terms of a force multiplier towards mitigating climate change. We'd be a lot better off investing in infrastructure (more solar, wind, even wave) and other technologies to remove fossil fuel in the energy supply chain to our homes and businesses.

I hardly need a lecture on affordability given the Seattle area has a fairly significant problem with inequality and homelessness but thanks for making yet another assumption. Fun fact - "You" is the IRS, and they "apply AGI on an national basis" , annually, when computing your taxes.

 

[patmurphey]

BEVs are still more expensive to manufacture and will be for a while until two things happen - battery prices come down and manufacturing costs go down due to scale and amortization of capital costs. The credits are proposed to go to customers, not the manufacturers. Lowering the MSRP eligibility will have a huge negayive effect on the speed of BEV development by limiting revenue for BEV development. Quit losing sight of the goal!

BTW, the average ICE vehicle transaction cos is now up to over $46.000.

 

[SageBrush]

We'd be a lot better off investing in infrastructure (more solar, wind, even wave) and other technologies to remove fossil fuel in the energy supply chain to our homes and businesses.

You sound like me from a few years ago. I vehemently argued against EVs from an opportunity cost POV. I said that everybody should drive a Prius/PHEV, and take the money not spent on an expensive EV and instead build PV/Wind. It made sense to me, and I still do not think the logic is awful.

But then a curious thing happened to me: I bought a cheap LEAF on a lark and I couldn't stand the idea of refueling it with Colorado coal so I finally got off my butt and built a PV array at home. So even though I consider myself an arch environmentalist, and I have the means to buy what I want, the EV was the spark that lead to most of my clean generation activities.

It is an anecdote to be sure, but it caused me to realize that clean generation progresses in a non-linear, and sometimes illogical, and certainly less than ideally efficient way. The total social benefit from EV is **very* hard to quantitate. I finally gave up and became an EV evangelist when I realized that EVs are probably the most important time flexible demand sink for deep clean energy grid penetration.

 

[Corndart]

BEVs are still more expensive to manufacture and will be for a while until two things happen - battery prices come down and manufacturing costs go down due to scale and amortization of capital costs. The credits are proposed to go to customers, not the manufacturers. Lowering the MSRP eligibility will have a huge negayive effect on the speed of BEV development by limiting revenue for BEV development. Quit losing sight of the goal!

BTW, the average ICE vehicle transaction cos is now up to over $46.000.

These are certainly good points.

We're in an inflationary bubble for a lot of things, and when the top 3 best selling vehicles in the US are overpriced pickup trucks, it tends to skew averages heavily upwards.

I still assert the incentives for people that are already going to buy a BEV anyhow are not moving the needle from a green / clean energy perspective and we are throwing money at an outcome they're already proceeding towards anyhow. So when you use phrases like "quit losing sight of the goal", I don't think that I am...

How do we get the next price segment (25-40k MSRP) buyer to clamor for more choice and availability of BEV vehicles?

 

[rcp1]

I may be in the minority here, but the tax credit is absolutely an important criteria in my decision to order a Model Y. Weird this is such a controversial perspective.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I may be in the minority here, but the tax credit is absolutely an important criteria in my decision to order a Model Y. Weird this is such a controversial perspective.

Perhaps a model 3 or ID4 would be more suitable then.

 

[leaftoy]

I may be in the minority here, but the tax credit is absolutely an important criteria in my decision to order a Model Y. Weird this is such a controversial perspective.

It is more confusing than controversial since there is no tax credit for Model Y right now.

 

[rcp1]

Perhaps a model 3 or ID4 would be more suitable then.

I’ll probably just forgo a BEV and purchase a hybrid XC60 or NX, instead.

It is more confusing than controversial since there is no tax credit for Model Y right now.

Right, I’m the only person that placed an order with the assumption the credit would pass. Weird how the MY order queue grew dramatically when the tax credit became likely.

Anyway, I’m at least relieved Elon’s comment about the tax credit is getting slammed on r/teslamotors.

 

[ElectricIAC]

I’ll probably just forgo a BEV and purchase a hybrid XC60 or NX, instead.

Enjoy in good health.

 

[leaftoy]

[...]

Right, I’m the only person that placed an order with the assumption the credit would pass. Weird how the MY order queue grew dramatically when the tax credit became likely.

[...]

I would say most people here with pending Model Y orders put in an order because they needed a car in the approximate delivery timeframe at the time they put in their order. Sure, if there is a tax credit and they qualify, great. $8k more into their pockets. But I doubt you will find a lot of people here that placed an order assuming tax credit bill passes and will only take delivery with tax credit.

 

[orion2001]

I may be in the minority here, but the tax credit is absolutely an important criteria in my decision to order a Model Y. Weird this is such a controversial perspective.

There's not a whole lot of folks around here, but I'm in the same boat as you. Also, in general it *shouldn't* be controversial at all because that is the entire point of the legislation (and the prior EV credit legislation). I placed my order when I did based on the assumption that the legislation would pass and if it didn't, I'd just be out $100.

My ICE vehicles are paid off and run just fine and we aren't doing a whole lot of driving with working remote these days. I had a 11kW PV system installed earlier in spring and that has a much more positive environmental impact than switching to an EV or two at the moment. EVs are at the exciting initial stage like the first few years after the iPhone introduction where every year the technology and UX improved by leaps and bounds. In 2-3 years, supply will go up, competition and choices will increase, technology will improve and prices will almost certainly come down. If the credits don't happen, I wouldn't mind just waiting for a few more years to see how things shake out .

 

[mwdietertg]

There's not a whole lot of folks around here, but I'm in the same boat as you. Also, in general it *shouldn't* be controversial at all because that is the entire point of the legislation (and the prior EV credit legislation). I placed my order when I did based on the assumption that the legislation would pass and if it didn't, I'd just be out $100.

My ICE vehicles are paid off and run just fine and we aren't doing a whole lot of driving with working remote these days. I had a 11kW PV system installed earlier in spring and that has a much more positive environmental impact than switching to an EV or two at the moment. EVs are at the exciting initial stage like the first few years after the iPhone introduction where every year the technology and UX improved by leaps and bounds. In 2-3 years, supply will go up, competition and choices will increase, technology will improve and prices will almost certainly come down. If the credits don't happen, I wouldn't mind just waiting for a few more years to see how things shake out .

Exact same scenario here. I placed my order in April at a time when Tesla was doing regular bi-weekly $500 price hikes. I am in no rush but placed my order based on the assumption that the price would continue to rise, I would be able to place the order on hold if needed, and the tax credit would come at some point in the future. So far so good.

 

[Fluffhead]

I would say most people here with pending Model Y orders put in an order because they needed a car in the approximate delivery timeframe at the time they put in their order. Sure, if there is a tax credit and they qualify, great. $8k more into their pockets. But I doubt you will find a lot of people here that placed an order assuming tax credit bill passes and will only take delivery with tax credit.

That's exactly what I did. March or April EDD and the price was within my budget with the potential tax credit. If I have to cancel then a reorder is out of my budget at this point. I guess I'll find out in the next few weeks.

Regarding tax credits, the house just voted on debt ceiling and defense bill tonight, sending it to the Senate. Maybe it's possible this actually passes before EOY.

 

[Budshark]

Regarding tax credits, the house just voted on debt ceiling and defense bill tonight, sending it to the Senate. Maybe it's possible this actually passes before EOY.

I think there is a sense of urgency because the tide has turned against this being the right plan. And they know it’s now or never. So there’s no time to update or start over. The Dems have 1 shot at this… and it’s gotta be before much more comes out against passage (Inflation, travel restrictions, economy impacts, bad job report, etc etc). And it sure isn’t happening once they get into midterm election grandstanding.

 

[ElectricIAC]

before much more comes out against passage (Inflation, travel restrictions, economy impacts, bad job report, etc etc)

Hate to break it to you, but that genie’s been out of the bottle for several quarters ongoing.

 

[TallGear]

I may be in the minority here, but the tax credit is absolutely an important criteria in my decision to order a Model Y. Weird this is such a controversial perspective.

I'm in the same boat. I know a lot of people on here are for some reason convinced the MachE is not anywhere in the same league as the MY, but it still has the federal tax credit and is quite similar to the MYLR if you don't plan on using superchargers and don't care as much about the Tesla-specific tech. I've driven both quite a bit and they're both nice and have their pros and cons so I ordered both a Mach E Premium AWD Extended Range and a MYP (by the time I spec'd the MYLR the way I wanted it it was practically the same price as a MYP but would take 6 months longer to get). Coming from a couple decades of both a track and off-road racing background, I actually feel like the MachE is a better balanced car and is really just being held back by it's super narrow stock tires. I do like the Tesla more overall for a combination of smaller reasons, but not so much more that I'd pay an extra $5k MSRP for the MY and also not have a tax credit. If both have the new tax credit, I'll likely get the MYP.

The other negative about Teslas in my area (south SF Bay) is that they are literally everywhere so they're not at all unique or cool anymore; also seems like all of the god awful, horrifyingly bad drivers that used to drive Priuses to commute to their tech jobs at 55mph in the carpool lane and then cut off 5 lanes of heavy traffic to make their exit now drive Teslas.

 

[leaftoy]

The other negative about Teslas in my area (south SF Bay) is that they are literally everywhere so they're not at all unique or cool anymore; also seems like all of the god awful, horrifyingly bad drivers that used to drive Priuses to commute to their tech jobs at 55mph in the carpool lane and then cut off 5 lanes of heavy traffic to make their exit now drive Teslas.

Those gen 1 Prius Prime drivers getting into carpool lanes with their 11 miles EV only range (if they plugged them in, which they didn't unless they needed the parking spot)!

 

[Arthur Itis]

I'm with Elon. I think all subsidies should go away. Let the free market decide and stop using taxpayer money to influence an outcome. Don't even get me started on the needless spending already going on and then these stupid incentives compound the problem.

 

[advocate8]

I'm with Elon. I think all subsidies should go away. Let the free market decide and stop using taxpayer money to influence an outcome. Don't even get me started on the needless spending already going on and then these stupid incentives compound the problem.

But subsides AREN’T going away. Mainly just the potential Tesla ones. The rest is libertarian fantasy.
The outcome that needs influencing isn’t some trivial high school debate topic over the nature of government. And it is not whether GM lives or dies, it is whether the planet lives or dies.