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Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

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Finalized term sheet for offering is up:

Tesla Motors - Free Writing Prospectus - Filing under Securities Act Rules 163/433

TSLA 2-2014 Offering.png
 
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I think we are in complete agreement.

In this post I was myself trying to understand what was in it for the bond buyers. I then realized that, for an entity investing in the $1b range, the risk profile would be vastly different from an individual investor's, so the notes might make sense. First, an institutional investor would like the $360 floor. Yes, the premium is huge, but this investor, while assuming he is very bullish, still wants to tread carefully. Second, and this is especially important, buying the notes directly contributes to the company's future growth by funding the GF, thus further minimizing the risk, whereas the same investment made on the open market would not help the company.

In contrast, as an individual, my money wouldn't put a dent in the company's prospects. Moreover, I am able to tolerate much higher risk. Like you, I wouldn't buy the notes either (in fact, my portfolio is aggressively invested LEAPS.)

Not speaking for others, but this is what I realized, as some of you must've realized too after 2013's rise.

As your net worth increase past your net earnings a problem arises out of the imbalance between your income and net worth. When your net worth is still small, losing 10% might be less than one week of pay, but when your net worth is a lot bigger than your income, losing 10% might be 10 years worth of savings. At this point, a portfolio needs to be more defensive. TSLA's bonds are attractive because we are relatively sure that it will not go bankrupt until 2017 while offering the potential for a 40% gain. That's about it.

I personally have some cash from a 120% gain in Lithium miners in the past week that I am at a loss of what to do with. TESLA's bond looks attractive, but I am already too saturated with TSLA. So if some company in some other sector offers a convertible bond with the same term as TSLA, I'd buy.

I am assuming that the underwriters are moving around their capital to keep TSLA's price stable for a bit so that they can finalize the pricing of the bond. I personally have maneuvered my positions until I don't feel greed nor fear at any type of movement and wait until the details of the bond issue. I will then buy call spreads based on the bond details.
 
Is this the first capital raise where Musk did not buy in?

I have not seen this mentioned on any of the info about the Giga Factory capital raise. I had a degree of comfort during previous secondaries that a new floor was set due to Musk buying millions of shares. Do any of you see this a risk that the bottom could fall out quite dramatically, albeit it may short term phenomenon?

IMO, TSLA is headed to great heights on execution of the master plan.
 
Is this the first capital raise where Musk did not buy in?

I have not seen this mentioned on any of the info about the Giga Factory capital raise. I had a degree of comfort during previous secondaries that a new floor was set due to Musk buying millions of shares. Do any of you see this a risk that the bottom could fall out quite dramatically, albeit it may short term phenomenon?

IMO, TSLA is headed to great heights on execution of the master plan.

Last time it was partly stock offering and partly warrants/convertible notes. That time Elon bought stock as a vote of confidence and to keep his ownership percentage intact.

This time it's just warrants/notes and it would be strange for Elon to "lend himself money" (well really Tesla, but he's so deeply interconnected with Tesla personally) by buying these.
 
Is this the first capital raise where Musk did not buy in?

I have not seen this mentioned on any of the info about the Giga Factory capital raise. I had a degree of comfort during previous secondaries that a new floor was set due to Musk buying millions of shares. Do any of you see this a risk that the bottom could fall out quite dramatically, albeit it may short term phenomenon?

IMO, TSLA is headed to great heights on execution of the master plan.

i thought the last last time was a mix of bond and preferred stock. This time is just the two bonds (2017 & 2019)

youre right though, no mention about musk making personal investment. Doesn't matter to me. I think it's more assured now that tesla is viable long term. I think that perception has improved since last secondary

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Last time it was partly stock offering and partly warrants/convertible notes. That time Elon bought stock as a vote of confidence and to keep his ownership percentage intact.

This time it's just warrants/notes and it would be strange for Elon to "lend himself money" (well really Tesla, but he's so deeply interconnected with Tesla personally) by buying these.

+1. You beat me to it
 
Last time it was partly stock offering and partly warrants/convertible notes. That time Elon bought stock as a vote of confidence and to keep his ownership percentage intact.

This time it's just warrants/notes and it would be strange for Elon to "lend himself money" (well really Tesla, but he's so deeply interconnected with Tesla personally) by buying these.

Correct, you wouldn't want to see upper management buying Senior Debt positions. They could purposely run the company into the ground, and own the whole company through a bankruptcy re-organization.
 
There will be no Gigafactory conference call.

I just heard from Tesla investor relations:

I emailed them earlier, "would like to know if Tesla is planning a conference call for the Gigafactory and if so when?"

Their email reply was, "In lieu of a call on Gigafactory, we instead decided to post this blog post and slides from our convert deal roadshow at this link, http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory"
 
There will be no Gigafactory conference call.

I just heard from Tesla investor relations:

I emailed them earlier, "would like to know if Tesla is planning a conference call for the Gigafactory and if so when?"

Their email reply was, "In lieu of a call on Gigafactory, we instead decided to post this blog post and slides from our convert deal roadshow at this link, http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory"

Thanks Dave. I was beginning to suspect that would be the case. The blog, PDF and press release were actually even more thorough than I thought the call would be, so I'm happy.
 
There will be no Gigafactory conference call.

I just heard from Tesla investor relations:

I emailed them earlier, "would like to know if Tesla is planning a conference call for the Gigafactory and if so when?"

Their email reply was, "In lieu of a call on Gigafactory, we instead decided to post this blog post and slides from our convert deal roadshow at this link, http://www.teslamotors.com/blog/gigafactory"

Although I'm a bit disappointed, thank you for that update. Time to get out of TSLA for the time being.

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Those of you that do not know yet, Tesla just updated their Coming Soon and 2014 maps for the Supercharger. Big update.

http://www.teslamotors.com/supercharger