Tesla Gigafactory Investor Thread

[Aphysician]

@aznt1217
Apple should be a partner with Gigafactory. Found this one in the morning, but didn't make much sense then. It does now as they haven't announced partners who will contribute another 2 billion. (Tesla 2 billion, Panasonic 1 billion of total 5 billion)
Tesla Motors (TSLA) eyes battery factory to boost electric car production - CSMonitor.com
Tesla Giga Factory Update: $4B to $5B Price Tag, With Production Slated for 2017 : Greentech Media

 

[Aphysician]

There is a duplicate thread. Requesting mods to merge.

Tesla Gigafactory - Page 4

 

[Robert.Boston]

This report leaves out Bolivia which has the largest reserves. Reportedly 45 to as much as 80% of the worlds reserves of Li. Political process there has prevented any substantial mining to date.

In the "resources" section the report does acknowledge that Bolivia has the world's largest potential, though certainly well below 80% of world resources.

 

[TD1]

Why would they change the form factory of the cells at this point?

Elon mentioned a couple of times that 18650 is not the optimal size and mentioned a different size. I cant remember what it was.
The point is that when they have the opportunity to setup whole new production lines they have the privilege to choose the optimal cell size.

The only reason why they used 18650 so far was that it was the most common cell with the highest production capacity and therefore low price.

 

[Todd Burch]

Why would they change the form factory of the cells at this point?

We know they use 18650s because they are prolific, mass-produced, and therefore cheaper. But maybe 18650 isn't the absolutely optimized form factor--it just provides the best overall value based on what's on the market. If they can shape the cell however they want, then perhaps they can create an improved form---improved in weight, size, energy density, or heat exchange properties.

Edit: TD1 beat me to it.

 

[tom66]

28650, 18350, 14650 are other sizes.

28650 is fatter so makes more sense for energy density in a platform that is Model S/GenIII sized though I expect GenIII will still use 18650. As the batteries have greater volume to surface area, the packing density of the battery is improved. But cooling larger batteries is harder.

18350 is a shorter form factor - might make sense in a GenIII Roadster vehicle as a floor mounted pack would add a lot of height to a sportscar.

14650 is a smaller diameter battery - probably not much reason to choose this but it's an option. Easier to cool - could make sense in an ultra high performance vehicle (Tesla 1000hp supercar ... one can dream...)

Beauty of cylindrical li-ion is you only have to do minor retooling to make different sizes; you aren't constrained to 18650 only. Unlike with "pouch cell" form factor where the batteries are very different from one another.

 

[Todd Burch]

28650, 18350, 14650 are other sizes.

28650 is fatter so makes more sense for energy density in a platform that is Model S/GenIII sized though I expect GenIII will still use 18650. As the batteries have greater volume to surface area, the packing density of the battery is improved. But cooling larger batteries is harder.

18350 is a shorter form factor - might make sense in a GenIII Roadster vehicle as a floor mounted pack would add a lot of height to a sportscar.

14650 is a smaller diameter battery - probably not much reason to choose this but it's an option. Easier to cool - could make sense in an ultra high performance vehicle (Tesla 1000hp supercar ... one can dream...)

Beauty of cylindrical li-ion is you only have to do minor retooling to make different sizes; you aren't constrained to 18650 only. Unlike with "pouch cell" form factor where the batteries are very different from one another.

My guess is that they will run simulations at different cell shapes and sizes with various usage patterns and create a form factor that is ideal and likely unique to Tesla.

 

[Zythryn]

Just looked at the plans for the Giga factory... absolutely incredible. The American government has to be happy about this. Rural location + 6500 NEW jobs with potential to export. Furthermore, tech. companies HAVE to be interested, it can cut down logistics costs.

Shouldn't be hard to get partners. Apple also uses a lot of things in the parts explosion and process flow diagram. This is going to be great. The fact that they are planning ahead for a serious Gen III production ramp, this should be a huge signal to the "haters" and competitors that Tesla is REALLY serious. Gen III isn't some dream, this is the first tangible sign for product execution.

Didn't Elon say something at the 4th qtr call about Tesla would be using all the output of the factory?
I don't expect any exporting unless we are talking about exporting to Tesla's Chinese factory :biggrin:

 

[JPP]

I am a bit confused on lithium need/demand. At Teslive last year, Elon was asked about the supply/demand of lithium for batteries. He said that the lithium was 'the salt in the salad', implying that there actually was very little lithium in the battery. Of course a small amount per battery times billions of batteries is still a lot of lithium.

Any chemists/raw materials experts out there who can provide commentary?

 

[emupilot]

From the press release announcing the convertible note offering:

Goldman, Sachs & Co., Morgan Stanley, J.P. Morgan and Deutsche Bank Securities are acting as joint book-running managers for the offering.

The timing of the Morgan Stanley upgrade was certainly curious - could it have been based on non-public information? Is that kosher?

 

[JRP3]

Lithium is about 4% of cell material by weight, about 2% of pack material by weight, so no, not much per pack.

Looking at the materials chart I find it interesting that they are going to make the separator material on site, that one I wasn't sure about, but since it will probably be proprietary it makes sense. What I'm not clear on is they show "Raw materials" then "Copper Foil" and "Aluminum Foil", but I'd be surprised if they are making their own foil. I suppose they could be getting bulk rolls and then extruding it further into a thinner foil. They also show "Electrolyte Manufacturing" but don't list any inputs for that, so I don't know at what level they will be starting from. I would guess they would get the organic solvents and lithium salts, mix them together, plus their own proprietary additives.

 

[gjunky]

My understanding with convertible notes is that the holder (not Tesla) chooses how they want it converted (ie., into stock or cash) at the expiration date.

Quote from the Tesla Investor page:
The convertible senior notes due 2019 will be convertible into cash, shares of Tesla’s common stock, or a combination thereof, at Tesla’s election.

 

[emupilot]

If the cell output is 35 GWh/yr and the pack output is 50 GWh/yr, that means they will get 15 GWh/yr from other suppliers like Panasonic and assemble them into packs at the Gigafactory. It sounds like that means they will be sticking with the 18650 format since they will need the externally supplied batteries to be as cheap as possible.

I am skeptical they can finish the design of such a massive facility by the end of this year. I'm curious about contingency plans on cost and schedule - whether they can start producing battery packs without all the raw material processing etc. or how many Model E can be produced without the factory being online. Getting the Model X into production is a big challenge even with a battery supply and a shared platform with the Model S, but this is another order of magnitude entirely. Saving the world won't be easy - best of luck to Tesla! ;-)

 

[austinEV]

From the press release announcing the convertible note offering:



The timing of the Morgan Stanley upgrade was certainly curious - could it have been based on non-public information? Is that kosher?

isnt there a rule that the analysts cannot know what the dealmakers are doing? otherwise every report ever would be suspect.

 

[airj1012]

Came across some cool battery talks by JB Straubel this past fall which can provide some additional insight.

http://youtu.be/ShJuKTmtHjY?t=12m37s (stop at 15:18)

http://youtu.be/ShJuKTmtHjY?t=19m10s (stop at 23:40)

 

[aznt1217]

isnt there a rule that the analysts cannot know what the dealmakers are doing? otherwise every report ever would be suspect.

Yup. Separation. Nothing to worry about.

- - - Updated - - -

Didn't Elon say something at the 4th qtr call about Tesla would be using all the output of the factory?
I don't expect any exporting unless we are talking about exporting to Tesla's Chinese factory :biggrin:

Exporting meaning to other assembly plants around the world. Or even cars that finally adopt Tesla tech, the batteries being modular and all... Tesla the car manufacturer AND OEM.

 

[Hells]

If wonder if expandability is builty into the factory to accodomate tesla beyond 2025

 

[jdevo2004]

If the cell output is 35 GWh/yr and the pack output is 50 GWh/yr, that means they will get 15 GWh/yr from other suppliers like Panasonic and assemble them into packs at the Gigafactory. It sounds like that means they will be sticking with the 18650 format since they will need the externally supplied batteries to be as cheap as possible.

I am skeptical they can finish the design of such a massive facility by the end of this year. I'm curious about contingency plans on cost and schedule - whether they can start producing battery packs without all the raw material processing etc. or how many Model E can be produced without the factory being online. Getting the Model X into production is a big challenge even with a battery supply and a shared platform with the Model S, but this is another order of magnitude entirely. Saving the world won't be easy - best of luck to Tesla! ;-)

Could potentially use a new size battery for packs that go into vehicles while the 18650 format from outside sources to go into solar power supply packs. Remember that multiple types of battery packs are going to be built there.

 

[sleepyhead]

isnt there a rule that the analysts cannot know what the dealmakers are doing? otherwise every report ever would be suspect.

Yes, there is a Chinese Wall.

Investment Bankers cannot communicate with research analysts and vice versa.

Adam Jonas asked the question about capital raising and Elon confirmed they will raise capital this week.

Adam wrote a bullish research note (maybe) in hopes to help his bank get a piece of the underwriting deal. And it worked.

It doesn't take a genius to figure this out, and there is nothing illegal here. It would be very unethical if Adam didn't believe what he wrote. But if he truly believes in what he wrote, then there is nothing wrong with playing the game.

Adam Jonas might get a nice bonus this year.

And lastly the guys at zerohedge are idiots and always looking for conspiracy theories and other imminent market crashes that either aren't there or never materialize.

 

[InTheShadows]

Was there a conference call? If so is there a link to a recording?