JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Maybe I didn't understand your initial point about the effect on the economy. I see little to no near term effect from this and no change in military spending or weapons profile.
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Tesla Investor's General Macroeconomic / Market Discussion
- Thread starter FluxCap
- Start date
Maybe I didn't understand your initial point about the effect on the economy. I see little to no near term effect from this and no change in military spending or weapons profile.
not quite sure where to post this.
http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south...re-wants-go-car-lite-says-transport-authority
it portends the upcoming antagonism between cities and private electric cars.
https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/12/p...ons-london-approach-skyscrapers-public-space/
Paris is planning to ban the use of private autonomous vehicles in the future to prevent congestion,
http://www.scmp.com/news/asia/south...re-wants-go-car-lite-says-transport-authority
it portends the upcoming antagonism between cities and private electric cars.
https://www.dezeen.com/2017/09/12/p...ons-london-approach-skyscrapers-public-space/
Paris is planning to ban the use of private autonomous vehicles in the future to prevent congestion,
Thanks for the link. Seems that Paris wants to ban autonomous vehicles with No passengers in them driving aimlessly around. I suspect they will allow vehicles with autonomous capabilities that contain passengers though.....especially EVs
about 10 years ago, i had a discussion with an automotive engineer colleague. (i'm a civil/mining type of engineer), anyway i was asking what will happen when $5k EVs appear (be it used vehicles or cell phone type better place chinese vehicles). part of my context was that cheap EVs would be so much cheaper than public transport, that the constraint moves from cost of fuel, to cost of parking.)
My colleague's reply was that something would stop it from happening, didn't matter what, just that something will stop it.
Autonomous EVs are even better for the hoi polloi, not only do they avoid fuel cost, they also avoid parking costs. this is not a permissible outcome for public transport centered cities.
hypothetically take paris or london, and give every second public transport commuter an autonomous EV. Just who will be left catching the train? to put more bluntly, if the well behaved 1/2 of public transport passengers suddenly stop taking public transport, who will be game to catch it? it becomes like south africa.
I think I addressed my intention earlier. My apologies for interjecting the issue of the insanity of the arms race which confused the issue. Not news, but I make "loose connections" that are/were confusing to friends and students alike. Sorry.
Actually, for weak bullies like Kim nuclear weapons do make a kind of sense about security but that has got to stop. What is interesting in the current dynamic is how adroitly Kim and Moon use the optics of TV, e.g., their two-step or three-step across the DMV, to counter negatives from a superpower. Propaganda is a weapon too, as Trump well knows.
We truly live in interesting times. Good for Tesla today, too. Hope it keeps up.
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Sean Wagner
Member
From today's Financial Times, first four paragraphs:
Beijing announced it would retaliate against new US tariffs on $50bn in Chinese imports that will go into effect within days, taking the world’s two largest economies to the brink of a full-scale trade war.
The new American import duties, aimed at forcing Beijing to stop what the White House claims has been systematic theft of US intellectual property, will apply to products ranging from cars and helicopters to bulldozers and industrial tools and machinery.
China’s commerce ministry responded on Friday that it would “immediately introduce countermeasures of the same scale and strength”, though it did not immediately provide a full list of the tariffs or details about when they would be imposed.
“All the economic and trade-related achievements previously reached by the two sides will be rendered invalid,” the ministry said, referring to the results of earlier rounds of China-US trade talks.
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Source Subscribe to read | Financial Times
Meanwhile, other longtime enemies of the US like Canada, the European Union, and Mexico are implementing retaliatory tariffs too. Pity we didn't team up with them [they were willing] to hold China to account in a smart way that current institutions provide for, but then we'd have to befriend those countries and their weak dishonest leaders first.
This is just needlessly SADistic and has the potential to kick off a global depression. That's how it got started in the 30s, if I remember correctly.
Beijing announced it would retaliate against new US tariffs on $50bn in Chinese imports that will go into effect within days, taking the world’s two largest economies to the brink of a full-scale trade war.
The new American import duties, aimed at forcing Beijing to stop what the White House claims has been systematic theft of US intellectual property, will apply to products ranging from cars and helicopters to bulldozers and industrial tools and machinery.
China’s commerce ministry responded on Friday that it would “immediately introduce countermeasures of the same scale and strength”, though it did not immediately provide a full list of the tariffs or details about when they would be imposed.
“All the economic and trade-related achievements previously reached by the two sides will be rendered invalid,” the ministry said, referring to the results of earlier rounds of China-US trade talks.
...
Source Subscribe to read | Financial Times
Meanwhile, other longtime enemies of the US like Canada, the European Union, and Mexico are implementing retaliatory tariffs too. Pity we didn't team up with them [they were willing] to hold China to account in a smart way that current institutions provide for, but then we'd have to befriend those countries and their weak dishonest leaders first.
This is just needlessly SADistic and has the potential to kick off a global depression. That's how it got started in the 30s, if I remember correctly.
Sean Wagner
Member
Here we go:
Tom Hancock 34 MINUTES AGO
China said it will impose additional retaliatory tariffs of 25 per cent on $34bn worth of imports from the US, including soyabeans and automobiles, starting July 6, with further new duties to be applied on other import categories on a date yet to be announced.
...
Source Subscribe to read | Financial Times
Tom Hancock 34 MINUTES AGO
China said it will impose additional retaliatory tariffs of 25 per cent on $34bn worth of imports from the US, including soyabeans and automobiles, starting July 6, with further new duties to be applied on other import categories on a date yet to be announced.
...
Source Subscribe to read | Financial Times
There seem to be two ways in which this is relevant to Tesla (there, I saved your posts...).
1. Is/was Shanghai's deal with Tesla dependent on the good relationship that was just thrown under the bus?
2. I can imagine a scenario in which China exempts EVs from their own import duties, to maintain good relationship with Tesla. This would be in the spirit of the EU tariffs on Hardly Drivable, bourbon and jeans.
1. Is/was Shanghai's deal with Tesla dependent on the good relationship that was just thrown under the bus?
2. I can imagine a scenario in which China exempts EVs from their own import duties, to maintain good relationship with Tesla. This would be in the spirit of the EU tariffs on Hardly Drivable, bourbon and jeans.
I would agree on #2. Last time we were at this point, when Trump first threatened 25% tariffs, detailed lists of goods that would have been affected had already leaked to media. I didn´t find EVs to be on this list.
After the dust settled, China did pretty much the opposite of introducing tariffs by allowing international car makers to set up factories without a joint venture, which should effectively give them better control of their intellectual property. In response, Trump threatens with tariffs again
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Sean Wagner
Member
It was sensible to spell it out.
1. China's mandate to start building EVs domestically means hundreds of thousands are coming, and millions later on. It's a nearly 25 million passenger vehicle market now [per annum]. The follow-on investments by foreign automotive companies and suppliers already figure in the multiple billions. They don't need Tesla, but a Gigafactory in Shanghai [building both cars and battery packs] certainly would benefit the region.
2. One can hope that our Tesla bias somehow influences the big picture. The EU's tariffs were smartly chosen to send a clear signal while limiting disruption. China is not on the same page, especially as this administration is already preparing additional tariffs for $100B of goods from China.
The idea that something gets lost when you exchange holdings in the world's reserve currency [for how long still?] against goods is quixotic.
By the way, Lincoln will be an immediate casualty of these measures. They entered the Chinese market late, but have been expanding smartly with US-made cars. While the lower tariffs will be enjoyed by Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche et al for the cars they don't build there.
1. China's mandate to start building EVs domestically means hundreds of thousands are coming, and millions later on. It's a nearly 25 million passenger vehicle market now [per annum]. The follow-on investments by foreign automotive companies and suppliers already figure in the multiple billions. They don't need Tesla, but a Gigafactory in Shanghai [building both cars and battery packs] certainly would benefit the region.
2. One can hope that our Tesla bias somehow influences the big picture. The EU's tariffs were smartly chosen to send a clear signal while limiting disruption. China is not on the same page, especially as this administration is already preparing additional tariffs for $100B of goods from China.
The idea that something gets lost when you exchange holdings in the world's reserve currency [for how long still?] against goods is quixotic.
By the way, Lincoln will be an immediate casualty of these measures. They entered the Chinese market late, but have been expanding smartly with US-made cars. While the lower tariffs will be enjoyed by Audi, BMW, Mercedes, Porsche et al for the cars they don't build there.
Sean Wagner
Member
This is what we need to know now. As underlined by me in the post somewhat above, cars are on it.
Does this apply to EVs too?
When is big business going to throw this guy the hook. Apparently the Koch's are against this, though happy as crap about climate policies. NYT had an interesting review of a recent book about rise of the Nazis. What was new to me was how Germany suffered from globalism problems leading into the twenties, and business screwed up supporting Hitler but lived to regret it. Really rhymes with today.
How Did the Nazis Gain Power in Germany?
How Did the Nazis Gain Power in Germany?
One way out of this mess it to find a way to declare the orange one a winner...give him some prizes (we know he desperately wants 2 Nobel prizes so he can beat Obama) Maybe throw a parade for him.
As long as his ego (not sure he has anything else inside him) is salved he might be at least "led to the right conclusion" regarding international commerce.
Every time I think the whole world is going in the proverbial crapper I watch something like this.
As long as his ego (not sure he has anything else inside him) is salved he might be at least "led to the right conclusion" regarding international commerce.
Every time I think the whole world is going in the proverbial crapper I watch something like this.
Tarriffs had very little to do with the Great Depression; it's a right-wing lie to blame it on tarriffs. Trade wars are not good, but they have much less effect that most people think.
What actually triggered the global depression was a banking crisis, a bit like the one in 2008. It was made possible because the banks were lending money to brokerages and gambling on stocks themselves (also a lot like 2008). This meant that an overextended stock market crashing *also* brought down the banks. This is why FDR forced banks and brokerages to separate under Glass-Steagall, which was repealed in the 1990s by Gramm-Leach-Billey. (Glass-Steagal is why stock market crashes like 1987 had no effect on the broader economy.)
Bringing down the banks destroyed consumer spending which proceeded to trash the rest of the economy.
What made it worse was that there was no backstop for the banks, until FDR's election. The "Bank Holiday" stemmed the bleeding, but the only way to recover was to follow John Maynard Keynes's prescriptions, which no government was fully willing to do, not even FDR -- until WWII.
The proximate cause of Hitler's rise to power lay in the deflationary policies of Bruenig, which caused massive unemployment and poverty. Because the Social Democrats acquiesced in the deflationary, hard-money policies, the frustrated population voted for the right-wing extremists instead.
This lesson is important -- if left-wing parties pursue hard-money, deflationary policies, they are *doomed* -- voters who aren't rich will give up on them and vote for the right-wing parties which blame everything on foreigners and minority groups. Left-wing parties *must* stay true to progressive economic principles in order to prevent fascism. It matters.
This is one reason Hillary Clinton was a terrible candidate, and why Bernie Sanders consistently polled 5 points better than her in head-to-head matchups against any Republican. Because he was articulating the left-wing, easy-money, progressive, populist economic message.
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Thanks for the share. A lot of the world's progress has occurred because of changes in much larger countries, say China. I am selfishly patriotic, I expect more from us and the wasted potential is shameful.
Excellent analysis of what happened during the Great Depression and the Financial Crisis. But the banking crisis was not the cause but yet another symptom. Prior to both busts, unsustainable bubbles were created by the easy money policies of the Federal Reserve. When they popped, it is natural that the banks which made most of the bad loans were the first affected.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Austrian_business_cycle_theory
Autonews says EVs are on the list, but I from reading this it seems like their reasoning is "light vehicles are on the list -> EVs are light vehicles -> Tesla is on the list":
Autos in crosshairs as U.S.-China trade war erupts
Would like to see that list what China is putting tariffs on, they only link the US list. Last time we went trough this, the lists split vehicles into dozens of categories and from my analysis the category Teslas are in was not on it.
Autos in crosshairs as U.S.-China trade war erupts
Would like to see that list what China is putting tariffs on, they only link the US list. Last time we went trough this, the lists split vehicles into dozens of categories and from my analysis the category Teslas are in was not on it.
Just as a general advice " Fix your roof while the sun is shining " .
Everyone has his personal situation. But, on the macro, right now we have it good. So use those good times, if you can (again, each one has his own struggle), to pay your debts, reduce your unnecessary expenses...
So when cloud come in, you'll be prepared. And you won't have to do bad decisions and "be forced" to sell stocks you wouldn't want to sell (tsla).
Everyone has his personal situation. But, on the macro, right now we have it good. So use those good times, if you can (again, each one has his own struggle), to pay your debts, reduce your unnecessary expenses...
So when cloud come in, you'll be prepared. And you won't have to do bad decisions and "be forced" to sell stocks you wouldn't want to sell (tsla).
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