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Tesla Master Plan Part 2 & 3
- Thread starter Blackout
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- Tesla Inc.
Yes. That's one of the reasons Tesla S is selling more that BMW 7 and Mercedes S ;-)
deonb
Active Member
I agree it's stillborn.
Well, except anybody currently working Uber and Lyft. They would totally only buy Teslas once this is possible.
Oh, and Enterprise, Budget, Avis, Herz, National, Alamo. Because why would anybody ever rent a car from them again that I can't just abandon at airport curbside dropoff but have to actually take it back? So car rental companies would be forced to.
And U-haul and Penske. Because it just makes sense.
And me. I have 3 vehicles over 2 drivers. 1 is always unused.
But other than that... totally stillborn.
nexsuperne101
Closed
andrerodpt
Member
Regarding "car-sharing", my 0,02.
I own 1 car and have a company car for my daily use.
I commute around 25km and back every working day from a small town to central Lisbon.
When I drive here I have to worry with parking space fees and the car just sits there all day, getting dirt and at mercy of "less cautious" drivers parking next to mine (its quite frustrating the dents and scratchs my company car has in it's bumpers and not a single one my fault).
Would I trade the use of this car for the Plan 2 car-sharing model? I would. For instance I wouldn't have to worry with parking payment (and that can be quite steep in my monthly budget). And the car would be making money for me.
Or I just could drive to a public transport hub and get into central Lisbon by bus/subway/train avoiding the heavy traffic burden and get the car to work for me until I need it again.
But would SC network be free in this business model? I doubt.
And I can predict another business appear - a fleet-management space where you can send your car get cleaned and recharged for a monthly fee.
But, being a car enthusiast, I would still own my own car.
I own 1 car and have a company car for my daily use.
I commute around 25km and back every working day from a small town to central Lisbon.
When I drive here I have to worry with parking space fees and the car just sits there all day, getting dirt and at mercy of "less cautious" drivers parking next to mine (its quite frustrating the dents and scratchs my company car has in it's bumpers and not a single one my fault).
Would I trade the use of this car for the Plan 2 car-sharing model? I would. For instance I wouldn't have to worry with parking payment (and that can be quite steep in my monthly budget). And the car would be making money for me.
Or I just could drive to a public transport hub and get into central Lisbon by bus/subway/train avoiding the heavy traffic burden and get the car to work for me until I need it again.
But would SC network be free in this business model? I doubt.
And I can predict another business appear - a fleet-management space where you can send your car get cleaned and recharged for a monthly fee.
But, being a car enthusiast, I would still own my own car.
Tesla is going to have to think very very hard about the pickup and who their prospective customers are . The Venn diagrams of pickup buyers and EV buyers don't have much overlap.
The problem with pickups is that, a lot of owners use them for driving back and forth to work each day on suburban roads 98% of the time. But they buy a pickup mostly for that remaining 2% when they want a lot of capability. I just don't see many people going hunting, fishing, or loading an ATV or sled into the back of a compact electric pickup. And there are no chargers at the trout lake located 100 km up some poorly maintained gravel logging road.
The problem with pickups is that, a lot of owners use them for driving back and forth to work each day on suburban roads 98% of the time. But they buy a pickup mostly for that remaining 2% when they want a lot of capability. I just don't see many people going hunting, fishing, or loading an ATV or sled into the back of a compact electric pickup. And there are no chargers at the trout lake located 100 km up some poorly maintained gravel logging road.
I like that Elon was very realistic about the prospects for autonomy. He's 100% right; the hardware will be there long before the software is capable. I really liked these comments:
"It is important to emphasize that refinement and validation of the software will take much longer than putting in place the cameras, radar, sonar and computing hardware.
Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators."
It means that he's not just some starry-eyed technophile and it gives the rest of his post more credibility. I stand by my opinion that we're at least 20 and maybe 30-40 years away from true autonomy.Even once the software is highly refined and far better than the average human driver, there will still be a significant time gap, varying widely by jurisdiction, before true self-driving is approved by regulators."
Hogfighter
Professional Lurker
Forgive this rather long post, but this plan is wrought with risk.
The beauty of the Model S is that it was not a new style of automobile. It is a beautiful sedan that could pass for a Maserati, but happens to be electric. Any pickup truck that doesn’t look like an F150 (think futuristic El Camino) is a new product. Convincing the public to buy a new product is always risky. Pickup trucks are utilitarian and can’t be priced so high that you wouldn’t want to bang it up some. I’m concerned about long-term demand for this type of vehicle.
Regarding Semi’s, that’s literally the last type of vehicle transportation that will be electric. Long haul, steady-state, high-horsepower loads are ideal for a diesel engine. They are generally driven by people that don’t give a rat’s ass about how it’s powered, as long as it’s quick to fill up and profitable. My hope is that Tesla doesn’t spend millions to produce a Semi (not to mention the charging infrastructure to support it) before practically all other projects.
Finally, I believe autonomous transport (i.e. a Tesla bus) is much further off than most. When we have a blend of autonomous and manual drivers on the road, it’s going to be awkward for the autonomous cars. Think about how much your personality determines how you drive….the way you nudge your nose into stopped traffic, with a friendly wave, in order to make that left turn. Does anyone seriously think that the majority of people will ‘let in’ an autonomous car into traffic? Take a trip down to Lima, Peru and tell me how well an autonomous vehicle would do in that kind of traffic. There are thousands of situations that if you aren’t a little assertive, you’re stuck for a long time. So who wants to sit in a new product that sucks at driving? Or rather, who wants assertive autonomous vehicles cutting you off in traffic?
Having used autopilot for over 25 years in aircraft, I can tell you that pilots use autopilot for over 90% of the flight. But practically all pilots will tell you that there are situations when it’s just easier to hand-fly the plane; and driving is far, far more situationally challenging than flying.
Thanks to anyone still reading.
The beauty of the Model S is that it was not a new style of automobile. It is a beautiful sedan that could pass for a Maserati, but happens to be electric. Any pickup truck that doesn’t look like an F150 (think futuristic El Camino) is a new product. Convincing the public to buy a new product is always risky. Pickup trucks are utilitarian and can’t be priced so high that you wouldn’t want to bang it up some. I’m concerned about long-term demand for this type of vehicle.
Regarding Semi’s, that’s literally the last type of vehicle transportation that will be electric. Long haul, steady-state, high-horsepower loads are ideal for a diesel engine. They are generally driven by people that don’t give a rat’s ass about how it’s powered, as long as it’s quick to fill up and profitable. My hope is that Tesla doesn’t spend millions to produce a Semi (not to mention the charging infrastructure to support it) before practically all other projects.
Finally, I believe autonomous transport (i.e. a Tesla bus) is much further off than most. When we have a blend of autonomous and manual drivers on the road, it’s going to be awkward for the autonomous cars. Think about how much your personality determines how you drive….the way you nudge your nose into stopped traffic, with a friendly wave, in order to make that left turn. Does anyone seriously think that the majority of people will ‘let in’ an autonomous car into traffic? Take a trip down to Lima, Peru and tell me how well an autonomous vehicle would do in that kind of traffic. There are thousands of situations that if you aren’t a little assertive, you’re stuck for a long time. So who wants to sit in a new product that sucks at driving? Or rather, who wants assertive autonomous vehicles cutting you off in traffic?
Having used autopilot for over 25 years in aircraft, I can tell you that pilots use autopilot for over 90% of the flight. But practically all pilots will tell you that there are situations when it’s just easier to hand-fly the plane; and driving is far, far more situationally challenging than flying.
Thanks to anyone still reading.
A new kind of pickup to me just emphasizes that it won't look like traditional pickups, which it shouldn't, because it'd be electric so there's no excuse for the boxy front, and it won't because they'll also need to have an aerodynamic rear.
only see 1 new thing here: following autonomy into a car-share system for owners, so Tesla will sell and rent, however the market goes. But, it's really a logical result of autonomy, so not a bolt from the blue.
only see 1 new thing here: following autonomy into a car-share system for owners, so Tesla will sell and rent, however the market goes. But, it's really a logical result of autonomy, so not a bolt from the blue.
andrerodpt
Member
I can't seem to get past this paragraph:
I believe there is a lot more "juice" in this than discussing the truck/semi/car-sharing stuff.
I believe there is a lot more "juice" in this than discussing the truck/semi/car-sharing stuff.
Well said.
But with that said there are opportunities. The Model S, and the 3 were both designed to be quite conventional looking vehicles so as not to spook buyers. EVs have a totally different set of constraints than ICE vehicles and I believe that the whole "design for manufacturability" process is just beginning to look at those constraints and imagine what's possible with different layouts, constructions, materials and so on.
In another 20-30 years I expect that we will look at the Model S in the same way that we look at some of the early cars that were basically horse drawn carriages, minus the horse. They make no sense except to the people who, at the time, couldn't yet envision what a fuel powered vehicle could be.
3s-a-charm
Active Member
Somebody gets it. All this debate about "I'm not letting some stranger use my precious Tesla that I worked so hard to get" and "there aren't enough Teslas in any city to make this work" are opinions that come from non-Elon-sized thinkers. I don't mean that to be disrespectful to those who commented but keep in mind that the autonomous fleet was the last point on Elon's plan and the first plan took 10 years +/- and still hasn't been completed. The world changes quickly and 10 years is a long time.
In order to understand Elon's vision of an autonomous fleet of Teslas and using owner cars within the fleet, you would need to comprehend what his full vision is for the future of automobile ownership. For example, many years ago the thought of home ownership was that you buy a house and live in it. Now we use real estate in different ways - some buy several homes, live in one and rent out the others as investment. I know people who own one home but rent it out and lease/rent homes due to their transient job situations. I also believe that home ownership may change in the future but that's another story.
I believe Elon sees what many of us don't see and that is a new type of automobile ownership - with the popularity of services like Uber, Car2Go, ZipCar, and other ride-sharing platforms I've already seen great changes in the way younger people (especially) are living - preferring to live in smaller condos downtown and not owning a car at all but relying on the availability of alternative car services like those listed above. In many ways it makes sense - no car payments, no maintenance, no depreciation, etc.
Sure, I'm not going to share my Model 3 when it comes out - because it's way too early for that. But in 5-10+ years when the Model ??? comes out that is a small urban electric car that is cheap and reliable and designed for autonomous ride-sharing fleets comes out... I would buy as many as I can afford and operate a small business!
Remember - a lot of people thought Elon was a crazy dreamer with the first Master Plan... if he can pull of Master Plan part deux - well we will all live in a pretty special time to have witnessed a single person make such a dramatic change to the world.
A bit disappointed as I found it less of a Master Plan, more a Sales Pitch. A Master Plan should not need to reiterate the safety of Autopilot beta, or justify the acquisition of Solar City, for example.
It was good to see him restate existing theory on autonomous car sharing but the whole industry is on this particular bandwagon already.
I also wonder about this current obsession with building the machine that makes the machine - trying to optimise every square foot of factory space is a good goal to have, but where does quality and customer satisfaction come into this? The Master Plan doesn't consider product quality or after sales service at all.
As for the trucks etc, my bet is that there are a couple of drawings knocking around and little else... wasn't there a slide showing a truck when the MS was launched?
Sorry for the negativity, guess I was hoping for something a bit more succinct, like the original.
It was good to see him restate existing theory on autonomous car sharing but the whole industry is on this particular bandwagon already.
I also wonder about this current obsession with building the machine that makes the machine - trying to optimise every square foot of factory space is a good goal to have, but where does quality and customer satisfaction come into this? The Master Plan doesn't consider product quality or after sales service at all.
As for the trucks etc, my bet is that there are a couple of drawings knocking around and little else... wasn't there a slide showing a truck when the MS was launched?
Sorry for the negativity, guess I was hoping for something a bit more succinct, like the original.
travwill
Active Member
Cool idea. Agree that some forms are close, but that wouldn't work for a city like Chicago where mass transit is huge. Not a chance. A lot would have to chance before then, and the product can't deal with the types of passengers and their crowds/needs, environment, etc. Seems suitable for a nice San Jose downtown only or something...
As for the rest of the plan. It wasn't like the first one IMHO that set a vision for the company. This one touched on current day issues, AP issues, investors pushing back on SolarCity, etc.
Either way, I'm a 110% hopeful that Tesla thrives in time
but its going to take 1000s of other companies also to change the world...I agree. There's no big vision here, unlike the first version. In particular, the solarcity purchase does not provide an important benefit. There is no "solar installation problem" to be solved by Tesla. Even the software side is only of interest to most buyers for a few months after installation.
Spending the next ten years building mass market, high quality vehicles is extremely important to spur electrification. I'm not sure if this reality is sufficiently exciting for Musk.
Solarcity is probably a rescue, and the plan to have "clean energy stores" seems good. But I don't think this change matters when it comes to climate change.
QueenieEye
Member
Prima plan. Prachtig toch die visie van Tesla. Ik mis alleen nog het bestelbusje als transportsegment. Wij hebben een dochter in een (elektrische) rolstoel. Om haar met elektrische rolstoel te kunnen vervoeren, zijn we afhankelijk van een rolstoelbus, een VW Transporter in ons geval. Mocht er een volledig elektrische variant zijn met een range zoals die van de Model S, dan ging deze VW Transporter er vandaag nog uit.
No, bad renters wouldn't really care at all about damage to the home. They can simply find another place to rent, or worse, decide to squat without paying rent (depending on jurisdiction, eviction may be difficult and costly).
On the other hand, damage to the car may correlate with the health of the driver, so I doubt they would go around smashing into things.
twall-e
Roaming
Zo'n uit zichzelf de stoel in de achterbak tillende kraan is denk ik te omslachtig/traag/stoel-te-zwaar als oplossing, anders zou een X misschien nog wel bruikbaar zijn. Maar waag er eens een tweetje aan naar Musk, misschien wil hij wel een special Model maken na de 3?
redevries
René de Vries
It looks like someone merged the Dutch and the English version of a Master plan Part Deux thread. I guess our English counterparts are all looking for Babel fish now!
The electric pick up is the best thing I've heard. The Ford pick up truck is the single best selling vehicle in the U.S.. The market is obviously there, if the pick-up can do what an ICE one can.
Apart from the use for work, driving on bad roads to get to home or forests/rivers/mountains is a way of life in the West.
A rugged 4WD plus a much extended supercharger network are *it*.
Apart from the use for work, driving on bad roads to get to home or forests/rivers/mountains is a way of life in the West.
A rugged 4WD plus a much extended supercharger network are *it*.
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