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Tesla Optimus Sub-Prime Robot
- Thread starter MC3OZ
- Start date
jhm
Well-Known Member
alstoralset
Man from another place
From @avoigt:
Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus Job ad posted 4 days ago.
www.linkedin.com
Tesla is hiring Engineers for high-volume mass production of Optimus Job ad posted 4 days ago.
Tesla hiring Sr. Sensor Hardware Design Engineer, Tesla Bot in Palo Alto, CA | LinkedIn
Posted 12:32:26 PM. What To ExpectThe Sensing Hardware Team is responsible for architecting, designing, validating and…See this and similar jobs on LinkedIn.
www.linkedin.com
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
as discussed in the main thread- that's a job you hire for when actual mass production is still quite a ways out.
They're hiring engineers to -start developing specs- for the tools/machines/supply chain/robot parts that will allow mass production eventually... read that What You'll Do section as written in chronological order--- the actual high volume part comes much later.
Alex notion this means mass production in 2024 is absolute fantasy.
They're hiring engineers to -start developing specs- for the tools/machines/supply chain/robot parts that will allow mass production eventually... read that What You'll Do section as written in chronological order--- the actual high volume part comes much later.
Alex notion this means mass production in 2024 is absolute fantasy.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
well for one mass production generally means churning out a bunch of the same, largely standardized, something--- since we know the robot hasn't even finalized its production design yet (in fact they're still hiring people to figure out how to do that) we know 2023 is actually 0. They perhaps made some small # of prototypes, but 0 production units, let alone a mass of them.
I think we can probably quibble over if "hundreds of something" is enough to count versus "thousands of something"- and it's going to depend on the cost and complexity of the something as well... to me given the intended price and target market goals Tesla has suggested I don't think I'd consider it as STARTING mass production until they're in the thousands a year at least.... in fact I'd be surprised if they're even selling them, to anybody, before they're ready for at least that level of production.
But point being, that job being posted now suggests they won't have have a final design and final assembly line in 2024, let alone be mass producing the robots this year. They'll be doing the 9 other things in that job listing this year- and it's entirely likely some of those tasks will spill into at least next year as well.
I think we can probably quibble over if "hundreds of something" is enough to count versus "thousands of something"- and it's going to depend on the cost and complexity of the something as well... to me given the intended price and target market goals Tesla has suggested I don't think I'd consider it as STARTING mass production until they're in the thousands a year at least.... in fact I'd be surprised if they're even selling them, to anybody, before they're ready for at least that level of production.
But point being, that job being posted now suggests they won't have have a final design and final assembly line in 2024, let alone be mass producing the robots this year. They'll be doing the 9 other things in that job listing this year- and it's entirely likely some of those tasks will spill into at least next year as well.
Tiger
Active Member
So if they produce 2000 units in 2024 you would consider that mass production?
DanCar
Active Member
Ten years from we will see a similar video with robot doing it 8x faster with perfect quality, no wrinkles.
I am gonna guess sooner than that. Once you have the system up and running, evolution can be very quick. Look at Midjourney progression:
Robots might take slightly longer as the generation of samples is some magnitudes slower and costlier. But potential the market cap is a lot more and now and by then we will know how to do this faster.
1. So basically to verify that hardware is enough, before they start "mass production".
2. To gather data for end2end for this task so that one day it can do this for customers.
3. To add another task it can do so it will learn to generalize so it can learn new tasks faster.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I'd say if they're producing 2000 in a mechanized, standardized, way on some sort of at least semi-automated line-- sure.
If they hire a massive # of people to hand-build 2k not so much- but that's not a thing I could, at all, see Tesla doing.
And I think the chances of them doing EITHER this year is roughly 0.
Especially if they're just now hiring the people to write the basic HW requirements and specs, and haven't even gotten as far as final architecture, let alone anything about suppliers or supply chain, let alone anything about the actual manufacturing process and equipment.
Again read the first 9 items in that job description. You don't go from "Post a job listing for that guy" to "all 9 tasks are completed" in 1 year, with time left over to actually build thousands of units
Tiger
Active Member
Ten years and there will be more personal robot butlers than iPhones.
What if they hire a massive amount of bots to do it? Does that change the equation?
Compared to the car it's a lot smaller and fewer large parts need to be moved around. They can probably have a few stations, some amazon-robots delivering parts and one or two humans/robots putting it together.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
I mean, 0 of that can happen to make thousands of them until they knock out the first 9 items on the job listing-- because until then they don't even know what to build or how to build it.
First it would be humans building it by hand, like it is today. Then it would be humans with backpack, camera-helmet and telemetric gloves doing it. Then it would be a bot with teleoperations doing individual task. Then it would be a bot doing some specific part of the assembly and humans doing the rest, then percent done by the bot would go up until it's 100% bot.
A lot of people think it has to be 0 to 100%, but imo more likely it will be a very gradual increase of the labour and the robot factory would be a good first use case and very close from factory to engineers.
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