Tesla sales continue downwards trend in Europe

[12Pack]

Some good points above. Bottom line though, Tesla is no longer the only game in town for a workable EV (including SC’s). Early sales were for people like us who enjoyed something different and new. But that market is now saturated. Tesla’s growth now depends on those who want something familiar - which Tesla isn’t - in an incrementally expanding market.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Previous graph was top 8 car Brands. I switched to top 8 Groups & there's probably the answer - lots of VW/Stellantis/Hyundai brands that have near-clones. Plus so many more smaller brands than North America has. MG is a big seller but SAIC isn't in the top 8 Groups

Not as rosy for Tesla, but pretty good, beating VW Group for only the third time in 4 years.

[Edit: I just reloaded below page and numbers all different, Tesla at 1,3,5,6,8 on most viewed. Out of 356 available now & upcoming. I'd argue that's even better for Tesla popularity]
List of 209 available & 253 total (including upcoming) Models of EV cars in UK - more in Norway/left-hand drive markets - https://ev-database.org/

For a LONG time (years) - the default sort of "most viewed" didn't have Tesla near the top. Now?

1, 2, 6, 7 most viewed are Tesla. This has changed dramatically.

Only the MG4 is much cheaper (by most viewed), Hyundai's are older models (but maybe refreshed plus extra 7.5 kWh for similar cost to base Model 3. Of course it's FROM that price, options may price it above Tesla for similar spec if it can be specified in same way as a Tesla) - see final image below


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Updated UK car list by "most viewed"
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Most viewed doesn't result in most sales does it so that's not much to go on. Model Y sells far more than Model 3 yet Model 3 is top most viewed. Cannot really make out your picture but is it per year or just overall and hence the Model 3 is top because it's the oldest car there?

 

[FastLaneJB]

Tesla was never every going to retain its market share but the idea was that the size of the market would go up so that a smaller market share would still equal greater sales. No one new what a blood bath China would turn into and Europe is basically forcing its manufactures to sell at a loss or be fined.
I'd say Tesla still rules the roost in the US but the US is hyper politicised and the typical US EV buyer may genuinely be put of the some of the stuff Musk spouts these days.
So its tough times all round.

MY RWD in Australia is now £30K on the road as of today apparently

Yeah that's because Australia has no domestic car market to protect so they allow all the cheap Chinese cars in. Australia is basically like China on a smaller scale now with a similar price war I imagine

 

[bainsy]

You can't see through that propaganda?

April (first month of quarter - always lowest). "Down 2.3% since April 2023" - that's pretty minor considering everything that's happening right now. Germany removed subsidies + resale gimmick. UK economy looking a bit ropey, transport (ships + car carrier HGVs) hard to get, routing has to avoid Red Sea.

First 3 months of 2024 (2024Q1) is Tesla's second best market share since 2019/2020. That's over 4 years ago!

Always count on Bloomberg / Reuters / Business Insider / Daily Mail to peddle nonsense.

Source:- Electric Vehicle registrations in Europe: 15 countries, majority of BEV market


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Glad someone said it…

Registrations are going to be low in April for UK because… they don’t register cars then? It’s at the end of every quarter. So March - June - Sept - Dec.

YoY down 2.3% - given the whole financial circumstance, it’s okay. Not great, but fine.

Must remember Bloomberg, Reuters absolutely hate Tesla/Musk. This kind of reporting isn’t anything new from them.

Of course people have their judgements, and I’m not here to say you’re right or wrong- do your own research and come to conclusions, however in my honest opinion: every car manufacturer will be feeling the effects. To claim Tesla will “vanish” in 2030 when they have more market share than any manufacturer combined is a bold claim. Does Musk need to leave Tesla? Probably not. It’s not just him making the decisions. Tesla, I am sure have a future plan (robotaxi? Semi? £25k hot hatch?)

Either way, they aren’t going anywhere.

 

[nativewolf]

The new graph shows a more accurate pic @UkNorthampton and yes..not as rosy. Slowly losing market which is to be expected perhaps. However is that 100% marketshare? Or are there others missing?

 

[nativewolf]

Glad someone said it…

Registrations are going to be low in April for UK because… they don’t register cars then? It’s at the end of every quarter. So March - June - Sept - Dec.

YoY down 2.3% - given the whole financial circumstance, it’s okay. Not great, but fine.

Must remember Bloomberg, Reuters absolutely hate Tesla/Musk. This kind of reporting isn’t anything new from them.

Of course people have their judgements, and I’m not here to say you’re right or wrong- do your own research and come to conclusions, however in my honest opinion: every car manufacturer will be feeling the effects. To claim Tesla will “vanish” in 2030 when they have more market share than any manufacturer combined is a bold claim. Does Musk need to leave Tesla? Probably not. It’s not just him making the decisions. Tesla, I am sure have a future plan (robotaxi? Semi? £25k hot hatch?)

Either way, they aren’t going anywhere.

That's not the investment question though is it? The investment question is this: Is tesla a dramatic growth story worth huge multiples vs other auto manufacturing companies. That's the issue, it needs high growth rates.

 

[MrT3]

Registrations are going to be low in April for UK because… they don’t register cars then? It’s at the end of every quarter. So March - June - Sept - Dec.

YoY down 2.3% - given the whole financial circumstance, it’s okay. Not great, but fine.

As you say, you should only really compare a whole quarter because last year they weren't delivering many vehicles in the first 6 weeks of a quarter - which has now changed somewhat this year. The reason YoY is only down 2.3% for the end of April is because they actually did deliver vehicles in April 2024 and not in April 2023.

If you look at just Q1 2024 then Tesla is down 11.88% in the UK compared to Q1 2023.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Most viewed doesn't result in most sales does it so that's not much to go on. Model Y sells far more than Model 3 yet Model 3 is top most viewed. Cannot really make out your picture but is it per year or just overall and hence the Model 3 is top because it's the oldest car there?

It's recent as the last time I looked/noticed, Teslas weren't (as far as I remember) on the first page. This has been the situation for years.

I think what happened was - new EV hyped - people looked, previous EV owners looked at alternatives - they often already had enough info on Tesla. I think we're heading to a situation like Norway, where if you just want a safe choice, you choose a Tesla, everything else is a gamble.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Some good points above. Bottom line though, Tesla is no longer the only game in town for a workable EV (including SC’s). Early sales were for people like us who enjoyed something different and new. But that market is now saturated. Tesla’s growth now depends on those who want something familiar - which Tesla isn’t - in an incrementally expanding market.

I think Tesla will be the one to compare to, safe choice. If these 10% price cuts come to UK - then other options will be more expensive in most cases.

 

[UkNorthampton]

That's not the investment question though is it? The investment question is this: Is tesla a dramatic growth story worth huge multiples vs other auto manufacturing companies. That's the issue, it needs high growth rates.

Elon has said it's between growth phases. I can believe that. Others might not. I'm surprised by how well Tesla is doing in Europe. Germany & UK have reasons for lower sales. Honestly, try living in the UK at the moment... depressing

 

[Jason71]

Elon has said it's between growth phases. I can believe that. Others might not. I'm surprised by how well Tesla is doing in Europe. Germany & UK have reasons for lower sales. Honestly, try living in the UK at the moment... depressing

This is the UK forum so I imagine most of us are currently trying to live in the UK

Genuine question. What do you think is going to be the driver for the next growth phase?
I don't think Juniper will make that much difference will it?
The "model 2" would have been a big hit in Europe but that is now at best delayed
The MY and M3 are still some if not the best out there by many metrics but they are what they are.
Price seems to be the only thing left?

Edit: And general growth in the overall market I guess?

 

[UkNorthampton]

The new graph shows a more accurate pic @UkNorthampton and yes..not as rosy. Slowly losing market which is to be expected perhaps. However is that 100% marketshare? Or are there others missing?

Just to point out - the Bloomberg article seems like nonsense.

Top 8 groups, we have hundreds of models from many manufacturers. Often sales of these minnows are tiny, even across the whole of Europe. I saw a Fisker the other day... only one ever.

From the second graph, I'd say Tesla (light blue) is doing really well historically against the VW Group (dark blue) and Stellantis (green). Tesla is normally below VW group in Europe, but is now higher. Stellantis seems to be in decline. I'm assuming hit by MG4 & similar.

Skoda Enyaq does well I believe, better ID4 & of course not in North America

Off the top of my head (might be wrong)
VW - VW, Audi, Porsche, Cupra, Seat, Skoda
Stellantis - Citroen, Peugeot, Vauxhall, Opel, Fiat, Abarth, Jeep

 

[MD70]

This is the UK forum so I imagine most of us are currently trying to live in the UK

Genuine question. What do you think is going to be the driver for the next growth phase?
I don't think Juniper will make that much difference will it?
The "model 2" would have been a big hit in Europe but that is now at best delayed
The MY and M3 are still some if not the best out there by many metrics but they are what they are.
Price seems to be the only thing left?

Targeted marketing could help but the leader is averse to it.
Many people who can charge at home buy similar ICE vehicles. Most of these people are potential customers but Tesla does not do a full on advertising/ marketing campaign.

 

[UkNorthampton]

This is the UK forum so I imagine most of us are currently trying to live in the UK

Genuine question. What do you think is going to be the driver for the next growth phase?
I don't think Juniper will make that much difference will it?
The "model 2" would have been a big hit in Europe but that is now at best delayed
The MY and M3 are still some if not the best out there by many metrics but they are what they are.
Price seems to be the only thing left?

Price will fall as efficiencies & battery prices improve. LFP in China is $47-57 per kWh (47 for storage, 57 for cars). Costs more for a pack, but just for cells, say 60 kWh pack - it's £2,687 for cells. How much for an engine & transmission with thousands of moving parts, warranty reserves for overstressed small capacity engines with turbos etc & ultra complex supply chains? A lot of people avoid certain engines - Ecoboost & some Stellantis ones ring a bell.

CATL supply the whole LFP battery pack to Tesla, allowing Tesla to scale LFP vehicles easier.

Elon said that to speed up new products, Tesla will build new products on the 3 & Y lines. These should be the biggest drivers of new car sales.

The Y van in France has been a big success & should be rolled out worldwide.

I'll finish with this observation - every product niche Tesla have gone for they have arguably dominated. BMW 3 Series class etc

Spoiler: Article/pics - Model Y van

Tesla Introduces a Two-Seat Model Y in France as a Commercial Utility Vehicle - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Tesla (TSLA) has started offering its commercial customers a two-seat configuration Model Y in France. Besides offering the utility of a medium-sized van with a lot of storage space, this Model Y 2-seater...

cleantechnica.com

 

[UkNorthampton]

Targeted marketing could help but the leader is averse to it.
Many people who can charge at home buy similar ICE vehicles. Most of these people are potential customers but Tesla does not do a full on advertising/ marketing campaign.

I'm still astonished by the ignorance. The most ignorant don't watch youtube, but instead use facebook, Daily Fail/Express etc

Seems most people care more about

1) Colour
2) Shape (overly aggressive or pretty)
3) Everything else

Therefore I'd like to see informational advertising, more Cybertrucks & 3/Y in public spaces. Defintely Model Y van promotion - especially Total Cost of Ownership - same goes for Tesla as taxi/private hire.

Simple stuff like videos of the navigation, maintenance, salary sacrifice schemes, people talking about the long-distance experience & how much less stressful a Tesla is.

 

[ACarneiro]

every product niche Tesla have gone for they have arguably dominated.

... except for Cybertruck. (at the moment)

 

[MrBadger]

It wasn’t that long ago that some were hyping Tesla experiencing exponential or 50% growth.

 

[Jason71]

I'm still astonished by the ignorance. The most ignorant don't watch youtube, but instead use facebook, Daily Fail/Express etc

Seems most people care more about

1) Colour
2) Shape (overly aggressive or pretty)
3) Everything else

Therefore I'd like to see informational advertising, more Cybertrucks & 3/Y in public spaces. Defintely Model Y van promotion - especially Total Cost of Ownership - same goes for Tesla as taxi/private hire.

Simple stuff like videos of the navigation, maintenance, salary sacrifice schemes, people talking about the long-distance experience & how much less stressful a Tesla is.

I was getting into my wife's Fiat500e at the side of the road the other day and an old boy rolled past in a huge mobility tricycle ,looked me straight in the eye and said "They're not the future anymore you know" then rolled off.
EV's still need better PR me thinks.

 

[UkNorthampton]

I was getting into my wife's Fiat500e at the side of the road the other day and an old boy rolled past in a huge mobility tricycle ,looked me straight in the eye and said "They're not the future anymore you know" then rolled off.
EV's still need better PR me thinks.

Hydrogen/thorium/fusion powered "huge mobility tricycle"?

 

[Jason71]

Hydrogen/thorium/fusion powered "huge mobility tricycle"?

That's the irony he was riding an electric vehicle. I called after him. "You know that thing's electric right?" not the snappiest comeback if I am honest. In hindsight I wish I had gone with "neither are you"