Tesla sales continue downwards trend in Europe

[yessuz]

Toyota hybrid batteries last longer than most, but will fail as they cycle so often. Cycle life is very important. Prius batteries are different chemistry from some other hybrids, but still it's an uphill battle.

Toyota/Lexus are involved in lots of unreported scandals. Quality, forged safety testing for 30+ years, emissions cheating, massive recalls, metal shavings left in engines, fraud, finance and engineering taking second fiddle to cost savings.

Systemic failings at Toyota for years - it's following a similar path to Boeing. Why isn't this turned into a constant stream of FUD? If Tesla had a FRACTION of the problems that Toyota have, it would fill the media. For those who look at genuine information - regarding recalls, quality and a host of factors - IMO and probably objectively Toyota/Lexus are more of a risk than Tesla.

View attachment 1053366

so toyota is bad. we get it.

Meanwhile we are all having robotaxis by now, our cars makes us up to 30k a year, and FSD works like a charm, tesla roadster is on the road, cybertruck is 30k as promised and with 500 mile battery, tesla semis go full auto convoys all across the globe and now model 2 is launched. oh wait

 

[SO16]

so toyota is bad. we get it.

Meanwhile we are all having robotaxis by now, our cars makes us up to 30k a year, and FSD works like a charm, tesla roadster is on the road, cybertruck is 30k as promised and with 500 mile battery, tesla semis go full auto convoys all across the globe and now model 2 is launched. oh wait

Yes. we get it. Definitely several of Tesla’s “goals” haven’t come to fruition. But while many choose to point to one’s failures, I prefer to point to their successes. I never would have guessed that the Model Y would have sold that well last year.

And the China sales gap is closing. Perhaps the same will occur in Europe over the coming months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797901791331541484

 

[FastLaneJB]

There did seem to be a update seen (albeit for China) which seemed to disappear but started the initial riumours.

But I'd agree, and I think a slow down in production could be attributed to over supply as much as Juniper coming, It depends if you're an eternal optomist on all matters Tesla or have a more negative view in how you interpret these things and could easily be a bit of both

I like to try and keep a grounded in reality view on everything. Tesla does some great things and as we know also some idiotic things so praise and bashing alike where deserved

Pretty sure the drop currently is all demand. It's not Tesla specific but it's clear that all automakers are struggling to shift the amount of EV's they are making. This doesn't mean that EV demand isn't growing when you factor in fleet sales in the UK but just it hasn't grown as quicker as the OEM's thought so they've basically switched to making more EV's than the market wants at this point in time. You can see some backtracking and talking about keeping ICE around longer than they originally planned because of this. Not sure that means new investment in ICE cars, just running the same models for longer before they eventually retire them.

Where it might be interesting to see is cars like the Volvo XC90 or the new Porsche Macan where they are going to keep selling their old ICE based models alongside a new EV model. They originally didn't plan to do this for long but wonder if sales of the EV's don't meet their expectations then those ICE based models will hang around much longer. Interesting as the tech in the ICE ones is super old by this point in terms of infotainment and so on.

 

[FastLaneJB]

Lay off the personal attack. It's a sign that you've lost the argument and it's against TMC rules.

I've laid out counter arguments and believe your conclusions are flawed. It just seems to be relying on biased media headlines rather than based on facts. When you see a headline or article - just consider what message they are trying to imprint on readers and for what purpose.

Tesla work closely with suppliers to constantly reduce costs. Tesla are very highly integrated, perhaps only BYD has more internal production of components, but they have a large product range with only some commonality as much of it isn't Battery EV anyway.

I've spent a lot of time in technology, supply chains, consulting at many levels. I'm used to complex multi-dimensional problems.

False headlines aren't a way to navigate life successfully. We've all seen where that has led.

I didn't mean it as a personal attack but just mentioning you are very one sided about Tesla, they can do no harm. But fair play, apologises that came across the wrong way.

Also true, late post I got the 55% revenue drop with 55% sales drop. My mistake. The point is still regardless of how you spin it, Tesla is not growing at the moment they are contracting. I'm not here to preach the end of Tesla, I don't believe that's the case and I do think things will pick up again in the future so it's just a blip of the market as a whole. They won't grow though at the rates Elon predicted previously though I think.

I'd be more willing to listen to your opinion if I could see you admitting that Tesla has flaws and all is not as rosey as you try to paint. No company is perfect, no one person like Elon either. I think he's both a genius and an idiot at the same time based on how he behaves sometimes

 

[FastLaneJB]

Yes. we get it. Definitely several of Tesla’s “goals” haven’t come to fruition. But while many choose to point to one’s failures, I prefer to point to their successes. I never would have guessed that the Model Y would have sold that well last year.

And the China sales gap is closing. Perhaps the same will occur in Europe over the coming months.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797901791331541484

They are hugely cutting prices to achieve that, China is the region mostly responsible for bringing Tesla's global margins down on their vehicles.

Model Y is $34,502 in China and it's $44,990 before the US government grant in the US. Picked US vs Europe as there's not massive shipping distances involved sometimes and both batteries are made in China and US generally so it's closest match. It's a big difference and not sure they can be making much on them in China. They could have a higher margin in the US of course where they can rely on Uncle Sam to pick up the tab for Americans of that extra cost.

 

[SO16]

They are hugely cutting prices to achieve that, China is the region mostly responsible for bringing Tesla's global margins down on their vehicles.

Model Y is $34,502 in China and it's $44,990 before the US government grant in the US. Picked US vs Europe as there's not massive shipping distances involved sometimes and both batteries are made in China and US generally so it's closest match. It's a big difference and not sure they can be making much on them in China. They could have a higher margin in the US of course where they can rely on Uncle Sam to pick up the tab for Americans of that extra cost.

Yup the margins are down. How much? We don’t know yet. But also battery costs are dropping drastically. Elon’s goal is to move metal. Even sell the cars at cost and then hopefully make it up later in FSD revenue. Will that occur? Again, don’t know. But regardless… for every EV sold, it’s one less gas car sold.

 

[UkNorthampton]

yes, of course. You can post 55 page down charts and other nonsense as long as you want.

I mean you can believe any BS you want, you can even be blinded by eternal wisdom light of Elon, but in reality there are 2 things now:
1) each and every company which is not non-profit has the only target - is to increase value for it's shareholders. is it a long term or short term target, it does not matter.
2) TSLA 52 week high was 299 and now is 176. it is -29% YTD and -18% 1Y

One of the metrics (one of the most important ones), is just plain order growth, profitability and EPS. And if you can increase all of those numbers, then it is simple life. If you cannot - then you have to do something in order to increase your orders, so hence price reductions.

in 2022 tesla was increasing prices. M3 LR was 55k at one point (or maybe up to 57k, briefly, IIRC). Do you really think that Tesla would not want to charge 55k for M3 LR instead of 50k? just brush off 10% just because of reasons? are you really that deep into this??!

Facts/evidence not nonsense. How would one navigate life successfully?

You've used emotional language to counter facts. It would have an effect in Toyota or Boeing, less so in Tesla.

1) Not Tesla's mission statement. I don't see that in Musk's other companies either: SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Company or sociial media. They are there to achieve something. Applying other people's motivations is to me, obviously wrong

2) Shares are on sale.

We don't get to see order growth - we might see wait times which are approximate and vary by market, shipping etc. Many markets are really in dire straights. Look at China, factory demand, deflation, property bubble collapse (25% of GDP from memory, main investments Chinese have) and Tesla are down 3.1% Year-On-Year. China is in a huge mess and Tesla demand is barely down. Europe is down 2.3% and I'd argue that UK & Germany are much of that with UK facing economic & political uncertainty and Germany ending subsidies.

Source:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797901791331541484

Profitability and earnings are affected by the AI and other investments which are huge with enormous upsides. Whether you believe it is up to you. Just look at how many competitors are now entering the fields that Tesla identified years ago:- humanoid robots & self-driving. Tesla were early in seeing potential, starting work. As tech has improved others are able to join. I expect that Tesla will dominate due to a series of advantages.

You might ask why does Tesla seem to get preference on Nvidia high tech deliveries when other customers are at the back of the queue. This is despite Nvidia being a direct competitor to Tesla on self-driving, working closely with Mercedes (lead) and many others (Jaguar Land Rover mentioned in recent Nvidia keynote address in Taiwan).

The reason is that Tesla are aggressive in getting these hugely powerful AI clusters working, using them for real-world purposes. Nvidia's leadership want that cutting edge usage and insight to guide their future development.

Tesla can't easily go bust. Lots of cash, good demand. Gives Tesla freedom to explore even higher return investments and research.

Tesla have a history of reducing prices when profits get above certain levels on each product line and post-covid pricing was weird all over. Tesla aren't stuck to these price rises, they can and will bring prices down.

Tesla have years of backlog orders for Megapack but prices are often reduced as costs fall.

If you want to understand Tesla:-

1. Understand Musk
   1. Renewable transport
   2. Mars & beyond
   3. Loves humanity/consciousness, not just favourite individuals
   4. Thinks deeply, ahead of many others
   5. Understands risks, takes risks
2. Tesla safe - can take risks now
3. Huge opportunities in self-driving, robots & more
4. Ahead of any other company in real-world Artificial Intelligence
5. Agile, flexible, small number of core thinkers
6. Absolute number of vehicles ambition has morphed into Transport As A Service, robotaxis etc
   1. Competitors will struggle to survive

 

[yessuz]

Yup the margins are down. How much? We don’t know yet. But also battery costs are dropping drastically. Elon’s goal is to move metal. Even sell the cars at cost and then hopefully make it up later in FSD revenue. Will that occur? Again, don’t know. But regardless… for every EV sold, it’s one less gas car sold.

well, we know. from the quarterly reports.

https://digitalassets.tesla.com/tesla-contents/image/upload/IR/TSLA-Q1-2024-Update.pdf

 

[SO16]

well, we know. from the quarterly reports.

View attachment 1053387

I mean from Q2 and forward. Battery Cost reductions takes some time to trickle through.

EV Battery Prices Dropping A Lot This Year & Next - CleanTechnica

Sign up for daily news updates from CleanTechnica on email. Or follow us on Google News! Thereâs something thatâs often lost in discussions about tech adoption trends, and in particular when it comes to something we cover a lot, electric vehicle sales trends: itâs not a straight, consistent line...

cleantechnica.com

 

[UkNorthampton]

Q1 2024 they sold 386k, Q4 2023 they sold 484k, Q1 2023 they sold 422k (taken from Tesla documents)

So sales were down 20% on the previous quarter (cyclical, expected), and 9% on the same quarter last year depending what you want to take as your reference point (problems in many markets - USA now channels are stuffed, non-Teslas not selling; China economy; interest rates higher affecting more expensive vehicles)

Looking at other metrics., gross profit is down 18% (investments)

There is also a 55% drop on Net Income (GAAP) according to the Q1 finances

I don't think anyone really believes Musks primary goal is bring cars to the masses anymore (I do, renewable transport as a service) as his overarching ambition, he doesn't even believe Tesla is a car company. I'm also not convinced he wants to make the safest cars, you don't make cars that can do 0-60 mph in 2 seconds if you want to be "safe". You also don't push for the biggest pay packet ever seen (control of Ai, not pay), and by some margin. I'm sure he probably thinks its part of the mix, but more as a sales aid and brand message, just like BMW call themselves the Ultimate driving machine when some of their cars really aren't great to drive.

Comments in purple

 

[yessuz]

well, it is so nice to be in la la land I see.

Facts/evidence not nonsense. How would one navigate life successfully?

Yes, let's separate fact/evidence from wishful thinking

You've used emotional language to counter facts. It would have an effect in Toyota or Boeing, less so in Tesla.

1) Not Tesla's mission statement. I don't see that in Musk's other companies either: SpaceX, Neuralink, Boring Company or sociial media. They are there to achieve something. Applying other people's motivations is to me, obviously wrong

2) Shares are on sale.

Eh? Shares on Sale?! Is this how Stock Market works these days? Right - then I would suggest remortgage your home, buy up TSLA and diamond hands to the moon I guess.
Talk about other businesses:
Space X and settlements in Mars by 2024.
Boring company - what have they built by now? that one small tunnel in Vegas and that one test one? impressive I would say.
Social media - twitter run down and is much worse place and half the value when Muskovite took it over.
Neuralink - so what's the progress here?

They are here to achieve something. like Hyperloop. oh, wait.

We don't get to see order growth - we might see wait times which are approximate and vary by market, shipping etc. Many markets are really in dire straights. Look at China, factory demand, deflation, property bubble collapse (25% of GDP from memory, main investments Chinese have) and Tesla are down 3.1% Year-On-Year. China is in a huge mess and Tesla demand is barely down. Europe is down 2.3% and I'd argue that UK & Germany are much of that with UK facing economic & political uncertainty and Germany ending subsidies.

Source:-

https://twitter.com/x/status/1797901791331541484

Excuseme, whatapardon? Car sales down, profits down 20% is cyclical. except it was not the same case in 2023 but hey dips happen. Nothing to see here.

You also want to blame high interest rates for Q1 2024 performance. fair enough. but interest rate increase happened in 2022 and not end of 2023

Profitability and earnings are affected by the AI and other investments which are huge with enormous upsides. Whether you believe it is up to you. Just look at how many competitors are now entering the fields that Tesla identified years ago:- humanoid robots & self-driving. Tesla were early in seeing potential, starting work. As tech has improved others are able to join. I expect that Tesla will dominate due to a series of advantages.

What are those substantial investments in AI? How much? Tesla's FSD is just not there, compared to others. Humanoid robots? seriously? But sure, if it helps you to sleep at night. You can even repeat "tesla is not automotive company, it is AI company" as long as you want, but 80% of company's revenue is cars. nothing else.

You might ask why does Tesla seem to get preference on Nvidia high tech deliveries when other customers are at the back of the queue. This is despite Nvidia being a direct competitor to Tesla on self-driving, working closely with Mercedes (lead) and many others (Jaguar Land Rover mentioned in recent Nvidia keynote address in Taiwan).

difference is, Nvidia's solution... works?

The reason is that Tesla are aggressive in getting these hugely powerful AI clusters working, using them for real-world purposes. Nvidia's leadership want that cutting edge usage and insight to guide their future development.

excuse me.. which ones? can you elaborate? which AI clusters are hugely powerful?

Tesla can't easily go bust. Lots of cash, good demand. Gives Tesla freedom to explore even higher return investments and research.

Yes, sure. too big to fail. *cough* Enron, *cough* lehman brothers *cough*.
You think it is hard for a company with size of 140k employees, to burn 1bn in cash a quarter?! that is 7000 a quarter. 2k a month per employee

Tesla have a history of reducing prices when profits get above certain levels on each product line and post-covid pricing was weird all over. Tesla aren't stuck to these price rises, they can and will bring prices down.

Of course they do. all companies just run to reduce profits once it reaches some mystical level. we all know that companies strive to achieve 0 profits. yes, of course.

Tesla have years of backlog orders for Megapack but prices are often reduced as costs fall.

Is it just because cost fall or because there is a pressure from competition? Because there is PLENTY of competition.

If you want to understand Tesla:-

1. Understand Musk
   1. Renewable transport
   2. Mars & beyond
   3. Loves humanity/consciousness, not just favourite individuals
   4. Thinks deeply, ahead of many others
   5. Understands risks, takes risks
2. Tesla safe - can take risks now
3. Huge opportunities in self-driving, robots & more
4. Ahead of any other company in real-world Artificial Intelligence
5. Agile, flexible, small number of core thinkers
6. Absolute number of vehicles ambition has morphed into Transport As A Service, robotaxis etc
   1. Competitors will struggle to survive

yes of course. AI, agile, robotaxis. We can add few more buzz words, like FSD, Single stack, neural networks..

I think I'll better drink kool-aid

 

[gangzoom]

Toyota/Lexus are more of a risk than Tesla.

Must explain why nearly all private hire operators use Tesla's, and hire car companies like Hertz cannot get rid off Toyota/Lexus cars quickly enough due to their risks.......

 

[FastLaneJB]

Yup the margins are down. How much? We don’t know yet. But also battery costs are dropping drastically. Elon’s goal is to move metal. Even sell the cars at cost and then hopefully make it up later in FSD revenue. Will that occur? Again, don’t know. But regardless… for every EV sold, it’s one less gas car sold.

I understand the mission statement but it's just marketing if you ask me. Tesla and Elon care about their bottom lines. Now clearly from what's been said before I think by Elon that an idling factory is just a big money burning furnace so even if you are breaking even it's better than losing money letting a factory idle. I'd expect they are selling the cars at close to cost or maybe a little under and making up their global margin in other markets.

FSD doesn't exist outside of the US but even with the free trial and reduced pricing its uptake is around 1% I think I saw so it's not all that popular. It's one of those tricky things where it's expensive to build but how much are people prepared to pay for a car to do something for them that they are capable of doing themselves. I mean you've been able to get this long before FSD came around, you just employed a driver for yourself but it's not all that popular with the masses People will buy it en-mass I think but probably not at the price they want to sell it for.

 

[SO16]

I understand the mission statement but it's just marketing if you ask me. Tesla and Elon care about their bottom lines. Now clearly from what's been said before I think by Elon that an idling factory is just a big money burning furnace so even if you are breaking even it's better than losing money letting a factory idle. I'd expect they are selling the cars at close to cost or maybe a little under and making up their global margin in other markets.

FSD doesn't exist outside of the US but even with the free trial and reduced pricing its uptake is around 1% I think I saw so it's not all that popular. It's one of those tricky things where it's expensive to build but how much are people prepared to pay for a car to do something for them that they are capable of doing themselves. I mean you've been able to get this long before FSD came around, you just employed a driver for yourself but it's not all that popular with the masses People will buy it en-mass I think but probably not at the price they want to sell it for.

I’m sure FSD take rate is a low number but better than 1%. US and hopefully China will have FSD. Europe? Probably will be a long time yet.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk debunks claims that FSD take rate is only 2%

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has debunked claims that the take rate for its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system is just a mere 2%.

www.teslarati.com

Yes, idle factories are a money furnace. Better to sell at cost than sit idle.

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Must explain why nearly all private hire operators use Tesla's, and hire car companies like Hertz cannot get rid off Toyota/Lexus cars quickly enough due to their risks.......

I thought Hertz had dumped all their Teslas? In fairness they seem to be selling all EVs and hybrids but some of the many reasons stated is Tesla’s were in more accidents and harder/longer/more expensive to repair

I tend to think there’s a natural limit to market share with cars, people like a bit of diversity, add in other market changes like the competition covering enough ground to have credible cars even if not the best (same as ICE, they have always been a mixed bag) so Tesla is reaching a bit of a saturation point in their chosen markets. BMW etc all tried to broaden their appeal by having masses of variations and options, even multiple brands, Tesla have 2 cars on the U.K. which look very similar in reality.

I would be surprised if they sold another same as last year, give or take, I never believed those that bought Tesla would just destroy the competition as if people wouldn’t buy anything else, I don’t think that’s happened anywhere, maybe the iPhone came closest and there are many who still like Android phones

 

[Whyone]

Must explain why nearly all private hire operators use Tesla's, and hire car companies like Hertz cannot get rid off Toyota/Lexus cars quickly enough due to their risks.......

I thought Hertz had dumped all their Teslas? In fairness they seem to be selling all EVs and hybrids but some of the many reasons stated is Tesla’s were in more accidents and harder/longer/more expensive to repair
.....

Whoooosh.......

 

[pdk42]

Toyota hybrid batteries last longer than most, but will fail as they cycle so often. Cycle life is very important.

Why should hybrids cycle more often? Every time you lift your foot off the pedal in a Tesla it will charge the battery.

 

[qwickshot]

Why should hybrids cycle more often? Every time you lift your foot off the pedal in a Tesla it will charge the battery.

A cycle = one full charge and discharge of the battery in terms of its total capacity. That doesn’t need to happen at the same time.

Fully charging and then discharging the battery is the same as charging and discharging 20% 5 times.

Hybrids have tiny batteries and as such, they are cycling most times the car is driven, potentially more than once.

 

[yessuz]

A cycle = one full charge and discharge of the battery in terms of its total capacity. That doesn’t need to happen at the same time.

Fully charging and then discharging the battery is the same as charging and discharging 20% 5 times.

Hybrids have tiny batteries and as such, they are cycling most times the car is driven, potentially more than once.

Yes, but they not really fully charge and fully discharge all the time/every time. it fluctuates as well

 

[GeorgeSymonds]

Whoooosh.......

I blame my hayfever medication..