Tesla Semi Pricing to Start at $150,000

The Tesla Semi’s price will start at $150,000 for a version with 300 miles of range, while a $180,000 version offers 500 miles of range. A “Founders Series” version will cost $200,000.

The pricing was announced on Tesla’s website, but it will be some time before a configurator is available to understand how additional features will increase the final purchase cost. Tesla hopes to send the truck into production sometime in 2019.

Pre-orders for a base model require a $20,000 deposit, but a “Founders Series” truck requires the entire balance to be paid to secure a spot in the front of the line.

A new diesel truck starts at around $100,000 and Tesla promises up to $200,000 in fuel cost saving over the life of the truck, so the pricing could be attractive to truckers and fleet operators.

 

[macpacheco]

Wasn't the 18650 contract expected to run out by now?
Then again, Tesla just isn't ready to produce packs the way they would like to, fully automated.
Seems from reporting that somehow Panasonic got themselves in a position where they are in charge of pack assembly and now also accepting at least part of the fault? I never got the impression that cells are being pumped out of the GF too slowly.
By the time Tesla/Panasonic can properly make packs automatically, will they feel confident the capacity is there to move S&X over to 2170's? Anything less than a 120kWh pack made possible short term IMO renders the whole 2170 a needlessly complicated ploy to reduce cost, cost, cost.

Probably it has run out, but lets not ignore the fact that the GF isn't working 100% flawless yet.
MS/MX pays Tesla's day-to-day costs.
I expect the last of Tesla's move to migrate MS/MX cell and pack production to the GF and to 2170 (after M3 ramp up is at least half way through, PowerWall/PowerPack ramp up is done). Only when there's reliable *spare* production capacity.
Just because the bottleneck on M3 is pack production, doesn't mean cell production is ready for a 5k cars/wk M3 production level (plus energy products handling at least 200MWh/month of cells/packs).
Its probably better for Tesla to leave the GF producing cells/packs only for newer products and keep purchasing cells for MS/MX in the interim. Plus is the engineering resources available to design for the change (instead of being focused on Semi final changes, Model Y, Pickup, ...).

I'd like to add that I'm astonished at the Tesla Semi pricing, amazing. Hope there's a 20% cash flow margin in those prices.

 

[Cloxxki]

Probably it has run out, but lets not ignore the fact that the GF isn't working 100% flawless yet.
MS/MX pays Tesla's day-to-day costs.
I expect the last of Tesla's move to migrate MS/MX cell and pack production to the GF and to 2170 (after M3 ramp up is at least half way through, PowerWall/PowerPack ramp up is done). Only when there's reliable *spare* production capacity.
Just because the bottleneck on M3 is pack production, doesn't mean cell production is ready for a 5k cars/wk M3 production level (plus energy products handling at least 200MWh/month of cells/packs).
Its probably better for Tesla to leave the GF producing cells/packs only for newer products and keep purchasing cells for MS/MX in the interim. Plus is the engineering resources available to design for the change (instead of being focused on Semi final changes, Model Y, Pickup, ...).

I'd like to add that I'm astonished at the Tesla Semi pricing, amazing. Hope there's a 20% cash flow margin in those prices.

I agree with most. And Semi pricing implies that battery costs are about to drop. Taking the soon expected $100/kWh, Model S at current pricing starts at 10% battery cost of total sales price. If the big Semi has merely 800kWh ($80K), the rest of the truck, and that included service and megachargers, is just $100K. Some expect ~1000kWh, making the battery COST more than half the sales price.

GF1 was said to (only) supply 500K car per year for a while, right? With S/X already amounting to 100K today, the 500K Model 3 doesn't fit already. And then there is the Energy market which already Samsung seems to be stepping in for (South Australia project).

 

[avoigt]

Interesting article about the batteries below. It looks to me like all experts are catching there heads about how the heck this is possible.

I predict following: For a variety of reason that does not only include the physics of batteries major improvements are not only expected in the next years until they deliver the vehicles but today proven to work. Tesla was first run the game of investing serious $ into Batterie optimization efforts for years. Now they are way ahead of the market and the improvements are even accelerating.

EM said in a interview a few months ago that they looks at every development that goes on globally and test everything that sounds meaningful.

Today BMW announced that they will invest €237 m to establish a team in Munich of 200 people to try to understand the Battierie cells. This statement shows how far other automakers are behind.

Tesla’s Newest Promises Break the Laws of Batteries

 

[Cloxxki]

Such steep promises have been seen in comapnies about to chase the Titanic.

The Semi is crazy cheap for it's accepted capabilities (I don't mind them building a bigger charger, it's got 6 or 8 main plugs in proto sttage)
The Roadster has a bigger battery than should be needed or practical. Price seems nothing srange.
So, battteries are getting smaller and cheaper. Or Tesla got the meaning of underpromise/overdeliver all tied up in a knot.

 

[Tiger]

Wasn't the 18650 contract expected to run out by now?

According to Panasonic to Supply Tesla With 2 Billion Lithium-Ion Battery Cells From 2014 to 2017 | Inside EVs
Tesla will use 2 billion Panasonic cells, which is something like 900k cars.

With Tesla currently sold littlebit over 200k cars, there remains a lot of old cells to push out. This is probably why Tesla’s Other New Product – A Phone Charger just to get rid of the cells. And probably also projects like Tesla Meets Deadline for Giant Australian Powerpack Installation and Tesla Sends Hundreds of Powerwall Systems to Puerto Rico and Tesla Powerwall help spending out the remaining old cells.

I can't wait for bigger capacity to kick in Is Tesla on line for a 200kWh battery for the S and X

 

[Electroman]

I am skeptical of any battery breakthroughs. I am skeptical of cramming that much into roadster using existing technology, or even with organic progress in 3 years.

For now I will assume Musk is pulling a fast one to get some much needed immediate cash. I can handle pleasant shocking surprises better than deep disappointment and frustration. I am trying to avoid turning into an oktane.

 

[Electroman]

The South Australian 129 mWh installation are from Samsung cells - not Panasonic

 

[Johann Koeber]

I am very surprised about the pricing.

One semi consumes about as many batteries as 10 MS/MX. Now lets compare the margins of one semi and those 10 cars.

I was always assuming battery production as a big bottleneck. Bring on GF3, GF4 etc.

How will TSLA make money in the future?

 

[avoigt]

It looks like someone really smart and expert in physics has found an explanation to the "Tesla promises breaks the law of physics" notion...

Tesla Semi is reasonable, part 1 | Selenian Boondocks

That analysis also explains the pricing surprise.

 

[Tiger]

It looks like someone really smart and expert in physics has found an explanation to the "Tesla promises breaks the law of physics" notion...

Tesla Semi is reasonable, part 1 | Selenian Boondocks

That analysis also explains the pricing surprise.

Thanks! Now that's a good piece of article about semi reasonability! FYI @Troy

 

[Cloxxki]

According to Panasonic to Supply Tesla With 2 Billion Lithium-Ion Battery Cells From 2014 to 2017 | Inside EVs
Tesla will use 2 billion Panasonic cells, which is something like 900k cars.

With Tesla currently sold littlebit over 200k cars, there remains a lot of old cells to push out. This is probably why Tesla’s Other New Product – A Phone Charger just to get rid of the cells. And probably also projects like Tesla Meets Deadline for Giant Australian Powerpack Installation and Tesla Sends Hundreds of Powerwall Systems to Puerto Rico and Tesla Powerwall help spending out the remaining old cells.

I can't wait for bigger capacity to kick in Is Tesla on line for a 200kWh battery for the S and X

2 billion cells, around 7,000 cells per S/X, that's 285,000 cars.
But wait, some Powerpacks and Powerwalls also have the cells from this contract, right? So it may end up being around 250K cars. And this year they'll make more than 100K.

 

[mongo]

It looks like someone really smart and expert in physics has found an explanation to the "Tesla promises breaks the law of physics" notion...

Tesla Semi is reasonable, part 1 | Selenian Boondocks

That analysis also explains the pricing surprise.

The aerodynamic resistance is off by a factor of 2 in that blog post. Semi could be 1.6 kWh/mile. 800 kWh for 500 miles, 640kWh for the 400 mile fill up @ 1.28 kW (10 x supercharger).

200 miles would be 320 kWh for the $30k difference for about $100 per kWh. Tesla could have batteries that are > $100 per kWh and just make additional profit on the 300 mile version.

Lets work out the Tesla Semi-Truck Technical Specs

 

[kbM3]

Tesla's power packs use a NMC which has a higher cycle life tan NCA but it is also heavier and I can't imagine putting in a heavier battery than the 10000-12000 lb, 1 mwh battery they have using NCA.

I'm guessing that Panasonic has a new battery with higher energy density for both the truck and the Roadster. 2019 is far enough that a next gen battery is a definite possibility.

George, weren’t you the one who showed the volumetric energy density of the 2170 was no better than the 18650?

It seems like Tesla has achieved some kind of breakthrough (we just also found out Semi is supposed to have same payload as diesel).

Things just don’t seem to add up?

I wonder if the leaked info on the Model 3 battery pack architecture, that you based your analysis on,could have been wrong or a plant?

Apologies if I remembered incorrectly.

 

[Johann Koeber]

Founders Series of a truck? Really?

I understand that you can get car lovers to shell out some serious money to get the greatest and special version of a special car. The 1,000 roadsters of the founders edition will be sold out shortly.

But a semi goes to trucking companies where the bean counters have a say. Does anybody think Tesla can sell Founders version of the truck in any meaningful quantity?

 

[Cloxxki]

Well, if getting your Semi sooner means you'll save money sooner, an premium for a Founders' might be worth it. Or, for prestige, company mentioned in releases, etc.

 

[Electroman]

I find the founders version a little silly. What Walmart is going to brag to their customers and investors that they have founders version?

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Hey guys- I just heard that Caterpillar is running some heavy mine hauling equipment with no body on board, but driving from a computer counsel a few miles away. So, it is NOT self driving, as there is a driver, just on board. How is this defined? Autonomous? Could a semi-fleet be driven by the home office?

 

[Tiger]

You may want to discuss this with Karen, from Expert to Expert..... I am just an Engineer and not as smart as you guys!

Good point! What's @KarenRei 's take on this?

 

[Olle]

Given that a diesel class 8 goes for about $120k I am shocked by the $150-180k price tag. These will pay for themselves in a year or two and after that you are just printing money as a truck owner...

Model S has been somewhat of a barn burner in the luxury car market. But at least people have other choices, and so it didn't take the whole market.

If the numbers above are correct, you have no choice other than Tesla Semi as a professional buyer. This will be epic.

 

[baillies]

$120kWh x 750kWh = $90k
$120kWh x 500kWh = $60K
This gives a cost of the base truck at $90k plus battery, probably similar to the diesel class 8 having a $90k truck and $30K drivetrain. I don't see this as out of the ballpark and given the $200k savings over a million miles mentioned I think this will prove to be unbeatable and definitely not unrealistic from Tesla as this was the stated goal.

Next steps
- upgraded battery in S/X next year once model 3 module production is sorted, maybe announced around end Q1. Design refresh with new interior more similar to 3. this ties in with the 18650 contract finishing soon as well.
- model y announcement maybe also as '1 more thing' for S/X upgrade above. I wouldn't be surprised if production is due to start 2nd half next year. In last earnings call they wouldn't answer when the second 3 production line would start and I think this is due to model y and they are able to increase productivity of current line closer to 10K given what they have now seen.
- semi drivetrain for other vehicles light trucks, buses, trains, marine, agriculture and mining vehicles. Unfortunately probably no change to this till Semi is available
- powerwall and powerpacks price drop given production is now running and more automated, also converting these to the model 3 module design should result in density increase so smaller size or more energy.

On the 7ckWh
I think that many people missed that Tesla bought solar city partly so they could install solar for their own sites at cost rather than pay margins to a third party. Given they need a massive investment for the new supercharger/megacharger sites and gigafactories this is probably a significant saving, also cheaper than paying the high peak grid connections as they have been so far.

based on 1.5kwh/mile the 400 mile range in 30 minutes is roughly equivalent to 8 super charger stalls (4 chargers) so not a big deal to add 1 to one of the new 40+ stall dedicated sites.

The other reason for the reveal is so they can begin on-road testing, this is similar to Apple announcing the watch and original iPhone so they can get the coverage of the 'new thing' and then begin testing in public as everyone knows what it looks like. Model Y probably doesn't
need much testing if it is just a different body on the model 3 chassis.

Last the design teams finished the model 3 more than 12 months ago and probably finished the Y as well other than applying learnings from 3 during production. This allowed them to design and build the semi and roadster prototypes. question is what's coming next year besides the Y as they have mostly completed designs other than the pickup truck...