Tesla to Produce Pickup After Model Y Rollout

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed that a pickup truck will be the the company’s next product following the Model Y crossover. In fact, he says he’s “dying to build it.”

Production of the Model Y is slated for 2019. The vehicle is expected to share architecture with the Model 3, which is expected to help bring the vehicle to market faster.

Musk has previously hinted that a Tesla pickup will be a miniature version of the semi truck the company debuted earlier this year. During the Semi unveiling, Musk showed a sketch of a “pickup truck that can carry a pickup truck.”

“By the way, you will actually be able to drive that with a normal driver’s license,” he said at the event. “It’s kind of wrong, but I like it.”

In a tweet Tuesday, Musk said he’s been thinking about the core design and engineering for a pickup for five years.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945713737729634304

“I promise that we will make a pickup truck right after Model Y,” he wrote. “Have had the core design/engineering elements in my mind for almost 5 years. Am dying to build it.”

Further, he said the pickup will be similar in size to a Ford F-150 or slightly larger due to a “gamechanging” feature.

https://twitter.com/x/status/945729229001334784

 

 

[electric_drive]

Is there a good posibility that Tesla will produce the Y in Fremont? So without the need to built a complete new factory but integrate it in excisting lines. The Y will me more or less be based on the 3 platform so why not built it as a (improved) 3?

 

[mongo]

Is there a good posibility that Tesla will produce the Y in Fremont? So without the need to built a complete new factory but integrate it in excisting lines. The Y will me more or less be based on the 3 platform so why not built it as a (improved) 3?

The 3 line may still be maxed out at 10k per week, so no capacity for the Y.
I'd guess they will duplicate the line with improvements. That will reduce line development work at whichever location they choose.

 

[NeverFollow]

The 3 line may still be maxed out at 10k per week, so no capacity for the Y.
I'd guess they will duplicate the line with improvements.
That will reduce line development work at whichever location they choose.

Don't the Model S and Model X use the same production line?

So I assume that the same will occur between the Model 3 and the modelY.

About the location, the current assembly plan in Nederland and a future China plan are possible.

Elon Visits Tesla European Factory, Promises More Range By 2017

Tesla's China factory will likely focus on Model 3 and Model Y production

 

[mongo]

Don't the Model S and Model X use the same production line?

So I assume that the same will occur between the Model 3 and the modelY.

About the location, the current assembly plan in Nederland and a future China plan are possible.

Elon Visits Tesla European Factory, Promises More Range By 2017

Tesla's China factory will likely focus on Model 3 and Model Y production

S and X have separate body assembly lines and share a final assembly line. Model 3 is already at their combined build rate. Unless the Model 3 line is really set up to do 20k/wk for most of it, it seems like Y will need so much extra equipment that it might as well be a separate line.

That said, by basing the Y on the 3, the addition of the Y line should be much smoother due to line design reuse/ duplication. It will also hopefully allow for the initial Y test vehicles to be built on the 3 line. That would allow faster build ups and start all the needed reprogramming for robotic assembly.

 

[electric_drive]

Why not limit the 3 to 7,5K when the Y is going to see the daylight and produce 2,5K Y's on the same line.
I think it's a good balance in the beginning to limit huge investments on new factories.
When you earn enough money from the 10K production line, you could set up a new factory.
Or produce it at an excisting factory (e.g Netherlands for the European / Asian market) and use the 2,5 K for USA & Canada market.

 

[mongo]

Why not limit the 3 to 7,5K when the Y is going to see the daylight and produce 2,5K Y's on the same line.
I think it's a good balance in the beginning to limit huge investments on new factories.
When you earn enough money from the 10K production line, you could set up a new factory.
Or produce it at an excisting factory (e.g Netherlands for the European / Asian market) and use the 2,5 K for USA & Canada market.

Some thoughts:
If you are limiting yourself to 10k vehicles, why make the Y at all? If the 3 demand had dropped below 10k a week, sure. But I am guessing the Y will be here sooner than that happens.
The 3 is going to pay for the Y line.
Existing factories are only shells for the new line to go in, not a major advantage.

 

[LCR1]

Where's all my math guys with nothing better to do. The semi is rated for 500 miles @ 80K a diesel counterpart gets 6-8mpg doing that. a pick up grossing say 25K while towing (light) gets 10-12mpg, when scaled into a CCLB setup with 176" wheelbase what are we estimating the rage would be of the truck.

1/3 the weight doesn't mean 1/3 the energy usage, battery needs to be smaller to fit, so less energy.

The truck gets 67% better mileage so a direct translation would be 835 miles. half the available space would bring it down to 415ish while towing at 25K thats 16-18K load on a 7-9K truck but that weight is todays weights for a diesel. The ford engine/tranny weighs about 1450lbs wet. That gets you 100kwh today and maybe 125kwh tomorrow. We're assuming the semi has 800ish kwh of tomorrows batteries, half that in the pickup would be 400 we've can account for 125 where are we getting another 275? If we cut down range to 300miles we still need to find 175 more kwh with no room to wiggle on weight increase.

 

[Sharpgt]

I agree that tow capacity has to be well north of 7500 to be successful. My Range Rover Sport tows 7700 pounds and it is a medium sized SUV. I feel a 10,000 tow capacity would satisfy a large segment of the market

 

[mongo]

I agree that tow capacity has to be well north of 7500 to be successful. My Range Rover Sport tows 7700 pounds and it is a medium sized SUV. I feel a 10,000 tow capacity would satisfy a large segment of the market

Should be better than an X (possibly with a load in the bed for ballast).
Tesla Model X breaks electric towing record by pulling a Qantas Boeing 787-9 Dreamliner

 

[Uncle Paul]

A range rover sport is rated to tow 7,700 lbs, but that does not mean that it will do well towing that much weight.
Brakes, cooling, handling, suspension and sway control makes carrying those types of weight better with aftermarket hitches and controllers.

A Jeep Grand Cherokee is rated to tow over 7,000 lbs, but the vehicle itself is too light to tow it well.

A full blown pickup us much better towing those kinds of weight, especially is equipped with a 5th wheel mount.

Tesla truck will easily have enough torque to tow those weights.

Gotta have the right tool for the right job.

 

[mongo]

A range rover sport is rated to tow 7,700 lbs, but that does not mean that it will do well towing that much weight.
Brakes, cooling, handling, suspension and sway control makes carrying those types of weight better with aftermarket hitches and controllers.

A Jeep Grand Cherokee is rated to tow over 7,000 lbs, but the vehicle itself is too light to tow it well.

A full blown pickup us much better towing those kinds of weight, especially is equipped with a 5th wheel mount.

Tesla truck will easily have enough torque to tow those weights.

Gotta have the right tool for the right job.

So truck may have huge pack (200kWh) to

1. Give decent range when towing
2. Provide sufficient mass to allow towing
3. Max out regen (extra top end buffer)

Should be great on non-towing range too.

 

[davedavedave]

Where's all my math guys with nothing better to do. The semi is rated for 500 miles @ 80K a diesel counterpart gets 6-8mpg doing that. a pick up grossing say 25K while towing (light) gets 10-12mpg, when scaled into a CCLB setup with 176" wheelbase what are we estimating the rage would be of the truck.

1/3 the weight doesn't mean 1/3 the energy usage, battery needs to be smaller to fit, so less energy.

The truck gets 67% better mileage so a direct translation would be 835 miles. half the available space would bring it down to 415ish while towing at 25K thats 16-18K load on a 7-9K truck but that weight is todays weights for a diesel. The ford engine/tranny weighs about 1450lbs wet. That gets you 100kwh today and maybe 125kwh tomorrow. We're assuming the semi has 800ish kwh of tomorrows batteries, half that in the pickup would be 400 we've can account for 125 where are we getting another 275? If we cut down range to 300miles we still need to find 175 more kwh with no room to wiggle on weight increase.

The semis 800kwh battery is to tow 80000lbs, so IMHO, a lot of your guesstimate ratios are a good fit. I’d bet that some variant of the Roadster 2’s 200kwh battery could be more than up to the task though, and also that newer megacharger tech could alleviate range issues.

 

[timk225]

Tesla must not make the front of their pickup look like the Semi, with that futuristic looking front end. Make it look like a normal modern pickup truck. The under hood space will be needed to store 500-1000 pounds of batteries, with the remainder of the batteries under the bed. Think of weight distribution and the amount of cargo weight that can be put in the bed. With about 150 KW worth of batteries, it should be able to drive far and tow/haul a lot of weight, and do it better than any pickup being built today.

 

[Qbenjamin]

I'm looking forward to the future reveal, but definitely not the estimated price tag. If this truck starts at $80K, I can't imagine that the demand will be very high.

 

[mongo]

I'm looking forward to the future reveal, but definitely not the estimated price tag. If this truck starts at $80K, I can't imagine that the demand will be very high.

I'm frugal also, but I think the truck will be super popular.

GVWR > 6k means fully depreciable first year for businesses, or they can take the IRS mileage rate of $0.545 mile and not recapture depreciation when they sell later. 80k 5year 3% loan is $1,437 a month. 2k miles a month for business knocks $1,090 off the price (need add back ~$100 for electricity).

If the pickup is 4 door, then it can double as SUV for many use cases. Those are 50k +.

 

[Qbenjamin]

I'm frugal also, but I think the truck will be super popular.

GVWR > 6k means fully depreciable first year for businesses, or they can take the IRS mileage rate of $0.545 mile and not recapture depreciation when they sell later. 80k 5year 3% loan is $1,437 a month. 2k miles a month for business knocks $1,090 off the price (need add back ~$100 for electricity).

If the pickup is 4 door, then it can double as SUV for many use cases. Those are 50k +.

Businesses will make up a very small percentage of the pickup truck market, let alone a luxury EV pickup. There's a reason why manufacturers offer a bare bones pickup truck for businesses, its typically due to them not wanting to spend a fortune on a heavily depreciating asset.

I'm not saying that Tesla should drop the price significantly, but if it's going to start at $80K, that's A recipe for disaster.

Not that's its the same thing, but look at the iPhone X sales. They took a market with heavy demand and increased the price by 40%, which decreased demand so bad that they had to stop production less than 6 months later.

 

[Merrill]

I would love to have a Tesla pickup and dump my F-150 but needs to be below $50k and they need to have a basic 2 wheel drive 1/2 ton for under $30k.

 

[mongo]

Businesses will make up a very small percentage of the pickup truck market, let alone a luxury EV pickup. There's a reason why manufacturers offer a bare bones pickup truck for businesses, its typically due to them not wanting to spend a fortune on a heavily depreciating asset.

I'm not saying that Tesla should drop the price significantly, but if it's going to start at $80K, that's A recipe for disaster.

Not that's its the same thing, but look at the iPhone X sales. They took a market with heavy demand and increased the price by 40%, which decreased demand so bad that they had to stop production less than 6 months later.

The iPhone X offered little advantage (more resolution, better camera, .3 inch larger screen, shorter battery life) over the next iPhone 8 plus at a 200 price adder.
If we were talking a base Tesla vs P, that analogy would be more representative.

Factory automation could make pricing on par with the the larger F series. The semi at $150k has twice the motors and around 3x the battery of a 4WD pickup. So sub 75k is not impossible.

They could also go the Ranger route with a lower cost smaller version. Going from the 3, add more metal and more pack, and come in around 60k. Short range 2WD even less.

For any truck user, the Tesla will (possibly) offer better fuel economy ($/mile) than an econobox and the towing of a 2 ton.

Is it cheaper long run? Iffy. Then again no new vehicle is, however the cost per mile cou llo d make it favorable over a newer used vehicle. And people do not all buy based on the cheapest.

I drive a truck due to utility, however my short commute will never pay off the vehicle. For anyone who has things to tow/ haul (5th wheels in particular) a truck with great economy lets them drop a commuting vehicle or save a bunch in normal driving. 14 MPG $0.20 per mile vs $0.04 per mile electric (0.12 per kWh, 333 Wh/ mile).
12,000 miles a year is $1,920 a year in savings. Add on vehicle longevity and no oil changes and over 10 years they save $20k. Then a higher resale due to drive unit longevity.

 

[Barklikeadog]

Businesses will make up a very small percentage of the pickup truck market, let alone a luxury EV pickup. There's a reason why manufacturers offer a bare bones pickup truck for businesses, its typically due to them not wanting to spend a fortune on a heavily depreciating asset.

I'm not saying that Tesla should drop the price significantly, but if it's going to start at $80K, that's A recipe for disaster.

Not that's its the same thing, but look at the iPhone X sales. They took a market with heavy demand and increased the price by 40%, which decreased demand so bad that they had to stop production less than 6 months later.

I want one in the worst way, but 80k would blow up one of my criteria... need capability, durability, and a reasonable price.
Give us all 3 and you will have a million reservations. If Tesla is lacking in any of these, they won't get buyers. 60k is already
obscene for a luxury pickup truck... and a 60k truck has everything including massaging seats! It has to be under that number.

 

[Merrill]

Yes I agree, let’s have an F-150 type 1/2 ton with basic accessories for under $40k.