Greatly expanded MY production is a cash cow ready and waiting to start being milked next year.
Good point I agree with most of what you say.
IMO Cybertruck is a similar cash cow in terms of demand and margin, but probably on a much slower ramp....
For Fremont Model Y the production the limitation is most probably paint or casting. and ramping GA
If Model 3 also migrates to using casting the combined limit of Model 3/Y at Fremont is casting and/or paint...
At some stage Tesla might want to migrate Model 3 to casting to free up body shop robots for possible redeployment at Austin.
Overall if Model Y and Cybertruck at Austin can't be done in parallel, I agree Model Y has the likely priority.
If the can be done in parallel and doing that only slows Model Y do 10-15%, IMO Cybertruck has priority.
Fair chance Elon gets personally involved in Cybertruck if it hits issues, and perhaps even if it doesn't
Maurer speculates that Shanghai GF is being built up to eventually produce 650K vehicles, 200K M3 and 450K MY. That squares with Musk statements that Tesla believes MY's potential demand will be far greater than M3.
This was not specified it could be the other way around 450K M3 and 200K MY, my logic is Model Y production didn't start in August and like Fremont is ramping up overtime...
Long term both Fremont and Shanghai will eventually make more MY than M3.
If this 450K per year run rate for Model 3 in China was achieved, that may help explain why Tesla is exporting Model 3 from China.
Perhaps it also may be that there is less Model 3 production at Fremont and more Model Y.
I've often speculated that we don't know the "run-rate" of the casting process, that seems to be partially validated by the deployment of multiple casting machines.
But I think "Paint/Casting Run-rate = No of casting machines"... Tesla will try to optimize this equation, not much point in having more casting than paint or the other way around.
I'm assuming moving to casting frees up some Stamping, it probably does if Model 3 migrates...
