Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[reardencode]

Trains do use the motors for braking and dump the power into a huge fan cooled resistor bank in the top of the unit.
Dynamic braking - Wikipedia

Quick math says you'd only need 4MW of battery to give 1C full power for a 5,000hp prime mover.

Fuel capacity-wise, you'd need about 20MW for equivalent semi-to-locomotive ratio. That's about 100tons of batteries at 200Wh/kg. Or about half the weight of a locomotive.

Charging and cell supply are the only problems, I think.

 

[lascavarian]

Tesla products and services have literally changed our lives and outlook on employing alternatives to fight human-caused climate change. Comparing TSLA to tulips or Pets.com is a terrible analogy, IMO.

I think rather than RobinHood, a graph modeling the vehicle ownership curve along with the stock. Ownership builds stock participation.

 

[OrthoSurg]

I think rather than RobinHood, a graph modeling the vehicle ownership curve along with the stock. Ownership builds stock participation.

I highly suspect the more people get into their new Tesla the more they will be inclined to buy TSLA shares. The robinhood curve will closely follow the ownership curve.


on a side note,
as for SpaceX investments,
investments firms usually charge a fee. If it it offered on twitter, no fees, it’s looks too good to be true.

« Hi - thank you for reaching out. We currently do not have any actionable SpaceX shares on offer. May I ask what your target investment size would be should something become available? For reference, opportunities in this name tend to come with minimum investments of $500k+. Let me know if this would be of interest and we will be sure to keep you abreast of any developments.

Best,
Chris

Chris from Forge »

 

[JustMe]

Lol, so how many traffic lights do you see in our future? (click all that apply)

Cheers!

In a situation like that, my friend would tell me “Just GO! They’ll stop”

 

[jerry33]

Lol, so how many traffic lights do you see in our future? (click all that apply)

Cheers!

My guess is that this corner has very few accidents because no one knows what to do, so they are very careful.

 

[Ameliorate]

Didn't see these later replies from Elon posted here -
From Tasha Keeney thread https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1314328552318341120

 

[tezzla]

Lol, so how many traffic lights do you see in our future? (click all that apply)

Cheers!

FYI: This is not an actual traffic light; it's an art piece. (Traffic light tree | Traffic light, Light installation, Lights)

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

FYI: This is not an actual traffic light; it's an art piece. (Traffic light tree | Traffic light, Light installation, Lights)

If that’s not obvious I’m a bit worried.

 

[UncaNed]

I haven't the foggiest idea what you're talking about. Whatever Tesla's accounting practices, they did tons of stuff on my 2014 Model S and called it goodwill and charged me nothing and made me a happy customer. I'm quite certain that the same sort of thing can happen with insurance, and Tesla, being the source of cars and parts, has lots of wiggle room on how and when those appear and what they cost. I don't believe that "regulation" will make that too difficult.

But perhaps I'm simply naive.

Likewise having brought my 2018 X75D to the service center for minor owner-caused damage repair, I was surprised with free stereo speaker, rear air suspension and other hardware updates in addition to the free ver. 3 processor update I was expecting having paid for FSD so long ago. So how could I not also spring for the $2,500 mcu update and a new spare tire and wheel too?

I'm pretty sure Tesla insurance and Tesla service centers will never do mediocre repairs like ICE dealers or random 3rd party repair garages might and will be a win-win for Tesla, TSLA, and us owners and investors.

 

[ZachF]

Some stats for ya...

I harvested out the data from this graph to mine 2017 auto production for North American factories:
How Tesla Stacks Up Against America’s Most Productive Car Factories

Here are the top North American factories in 2017:
628,108 Smyrna, TN (Nissan)
572,104 Aguascalientes, MX (Nissan)
466,284 Kansas City, MO (Ford)
462,228 Puebla, MX (VW)
428,428 Alliston, ON (Honda)
421,148 Louisville, KY (Ford)
419,432 Georgetown, KY (Toyota)
412,464 Princeton, IN (Toyota)
410,852 Silao, MX (GM)
407,264 Kentucky Truck, KY (Ford)
377,156 Marysville, OH (Honda
371,644 Dearborn Truck, MI (Ford
371,280 Spartanburg, SC (BMW)
367,380 Chicago, IL (Ford)
367,016 West Point, GA (Hyundai)
363,428 Lafayette, IN (Toyota/Subaru)
360,984 Lincoln, NE (Honda)
354,692 Jefferson North, MA (FCA)
351,676 Arlington, TX (GM)
342,680 Saltillo, MX (FCA)
341,796 Warren Truck, MI (FCA)
328,380 Montgomery, AL (Hyundai)
323,908 Cambridge, ON (Toyota)
307,216 Fort Wayne, IN (GM)
302,432 Canton, MS (Nissan)
295,984 Toluca, MX (FCA)
290,108 Wentzville, MO (GM)
289,380 Tuscaloosa, AL (Daimler)
285,428 Cuernavaca, MX (GM)
266,708 San Antonio, TX (Toyota)
262,392 Ingersoll, ON (GM)
251,524 Woodstock, ON (Toyota)
249,600 San Luis Potos, MX (GM)
246,636 Windsor, MI (FCA)
243,776 Hermosillo, MX (Ford)
240,656 Greensburg, PA (Honda)
236,652 Spring Hill, TN (GM)
235,092 Brampton, ON (FCA)
231,400 East Liberty, OH (Honda)
222,196 Fairfax, KS (GM)
221,520 Monterrey, MX (Nissan)
220,740 Oakville, ON (Ford)
204,984 Toledo South, OH (FCA)
198,796 Michigan Assem, MI (Ford)
198,016 Flint Truck, MI (GM)
185,796 Salamanca, MX (Mazda, Toyota)
178,776 Lansing Delta, MI (GM)
176,592 Celeya, MX (Honda)
163,852 Blue Springs, MO (Toyota)
158,548 San Jose Chiapa, MX (VW)
146,588 Flat Rock, MI (Ford)
143,468 Lordstown, OH (GM)
140,400 Chattanooga, TN (VW)
138,684 Toledo North, OH (FCA)
133,172 Lansing GR, MI (GM)
117,832 Ramos Arizpe, MX (GM)
109,876 Belvidere, IL (FCA)
104,624 Baja California,MX (Toyota)
101,348 Fremont, CA (Tesla)
86,788 Oshawa, ON (GM)
86,112 Hamtramck, MI (GM)
69,576 Orion, MI (GM)
68,016 Cuautitlan, MX (Ford)
64,740 Avon Lake, OH (Ford)
43,576 Charleston, SC (Daimler)
36,868 El Salto, MX (Honda)
22,984 Bowling Green, KY (GM)

Reason I post this is that it looks like Fremont could possibly take the #1 spot in North American auto production by the end of this year. Nissan sales are in the dumps since then, so it's likely the top rankers will be significantly down.

Also interesting, If the Texas terrafactory gets to 2m+ production, it alone will produce more cars than the state of Michigan!

 

[Singuy]

Just watched Season 29, Ep 1 of Top Gear. Pretty much an infomercial for the Tesla Model 3. Pretty hilarious and is worth a watch. Love how the spectators gathered around to sing karaoke as the Tesla charged.

 

[Knightshade]

Here are the top North American factories in 2017:
628,108 Smyrna, TN (Nissan)...

...Reason I post this is that it looks like Fremont could possibly take the #1 spot in North American auto production by the end of this year. Nissan sales are in the dumps, so it's likely the top ranker will be significantly down.

Also interesting, If the Texas terrafactory gets to 2m+ production, it alone will produce more cars than the state of Michigan!

Last word from the gigagrunt on twitter was GFN was maxxed around 7200 battery packs (cell constrained) a week going to Freemont for 3/Y, which would be just under 375,000 cars a year.... and best they could improve to (if orders shifted more to SRs than LRs) would be 8k a week or 416,000 a year.

S/X has been around 15-17k the two full quarters and around 6k I think in Q2 with the plant shutdown.

So without more cells Freemont looks maxed at either 375k 3/Y and ~65k S/X (and that may be demand limited at this point given they used to make 100k of em) so ~420k cars... or maybe like 450k if they get a very heavy SR mix for the 3.

The thread on twitter does mention a 14th Panasonic line but that it won't be running in time to meaningfully contribute to Q4 2020.

Source:
https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1313506427873366016


I think Tesla needs just over 170k production in Q4 worldwide to hit 500k for a year... if we figure another 15k S/X, that leaves them needing to build 155k of 3/Y.

At 7200 a week in CA for 13 weeks we get 93,600 cars....leaving 61,400 for China to build, or 4723 a week.... I know they were north of 4k by June/July, but not sure how near to 5k they are.

Should be fairly tight....(and even tighter for delivery of 500k total) presumably more guidance on this to come on the earnings call.

Does show their original 500k guidance for 2020, has they not lost like 60,000 cars of production time at Freemont during shutdown, would've been fairly easy to hit.

 

[ZachF]

For those wondering, the largest auto plant in the world is Hyundai Ulsan, in South Korea, making ~1.5m units per year.
The largest in Europe is VW Wolfsburg with ~800k per year.

 

[heltok]

I think Tesla needs just over 170k production in Q4 worldwide to hit 500k for a year... if we figure another 15k S/X, that leaves them needing to build 155k of 3/Y.

At 7200 a week in CA for 13 weeks we get 93,600 cars....leaving 61,400 for China to build, or 4723 a week.... I know they were north of 4k by June/July, but not sure how near to 5k they are.

Wu Wa was claiming that they were at 5600/week here:

 

[hobbes]

Some stats for ya...

I harvested out the data from this graph to mine 2017 auto production for North American factories:
How Tesla Stacks Up Against America’s Most Productive Car Factories

Here are the top North American factories in 2017:
628,108 Smyrna, TN (Nissan)
572,104 Aguascalientes, MX (Nissan)
466,284 Kansas City, MO (Ford)
462,228 Puebla, MX (VW)
428,428 Alliston, ON (Honda)
421,148 Louisville, KY (Ford)
419,432 Georgetown, KY (Toyota)
412,464 Princeton, IN (Toyota)
410,852 Silao, MX (GM)
407,264 Kentucky Truck, KY (Ford)
377,156 Marysville, OH (Honda
371,644 Dearborn Truck, MI (Ford
371,280 Spartanburg, SC (BMW)
367,380 Chicago, IL (Ford)
367,016 West Point, GA (Hyundai)
363,428 Lafayette, IN (Toyota/Subaru)
360,984 Lincoln, NE (Honda)
354,692 Jefferson North, MA (FCA)
351,676 Arlington, TX (GM)
342,680 Saltillo, MX (FCA)
341,796 Warren Truck, MI (FCA)
328,380 Montgomery, AL (Hyundai)
323,908 Cambridge, ON (Toyota)
307,216 Fort Wayne, IN (GM)
302,432 Canton, MS (Nissan)
295,984 Toluca, MX (FCA)
290,108 Wentzville, MO (GM)
289,380 Tuscaloosa, AL (Daimler)
285,428 Cuernavaca, MX (GM)
266,708 San Antonio, TX (Toyota)
262,392 Ingersoll, ON (GM)
251,524 Woodstock, ON (Toyota)
249,600 San Luis Potos, MX (GM)
246,636 Windsor, MI (FCA)
243,776 Hermosillo, MX (Ford)
240,656 Greensburg, PA (Honda)
236,652 Spring Hill, TN (GM)
235,092 Brampton, ON (FCA)
231,400 East Liberty, OH (Honda)
222,196 Fairfax, KS (GM)
221,520 Monterrey, MX (Nissan)
220,740 Oakville, ON (Ford)
204,984 Toledo South, OH (FCA)
198,796 Michigan Assem, MI (Ford)
198,016 Flint Truck, MI (GM)
185,796 Salamanca, MX (Mazda, Toyota)
178,776 Lansing Delta, MI (GM)
176,592 Celeya, MX (Honda)
163,852 Blue Springs, MO (Toyota)
158,548 San Jose Chiapa, MX (VW)
146,588 Flat Rock, MI (Ford)
143,468 Lordstown, OH (GM)
140,400 Chattanooga, TN (VW)
138,684 Toledo North, OH (FCA)
133,172 Lansing GR, MI (GM)
117,832 Ramos Arizpe, MX (GM)
109,876 Belvidere, IL (FCA)
104,624 Baja California,MX (Toyota)
101,348 Fremont, CA (Tesla)
86,788 Oshawa, ON (GM)
86,112 Hamtramck, MI (GM)
69,576 Orion, MI (GM)
68,016 Cuautitlan, MX (Ford)
64,740 Avon Lake, OH (Ford)
43,576 Charleston, SC (Daimler)
36,868 El Salto, MX (Honda)
22,984 Bowling Green, KY (GM)

Reason I post this is that it looks like Fremont could possibly take the #1 spot in North American auto production by the end of this year. Nissan sales are in the dumps since then, so it's likely the top rankers will be significantly down.

Also interesting, If the Texas terrafactory gets to 2m+ production, it alone will produce more cars than the state of Michigan!

Tesla as a whole will produce approximately 500,000 cars across its two factories. Not more than 628,108 in just Fremont! Are you comparing apples to oranges (run rate to actual 1-year accumulated nunber)?

 

[ZachF]

Last word from the gigagrunt on twitter was GFN was maxxed around 7200 battery packs (cell constrained) a week going to Freemont for 3/Y, which would be just under 375,000 cars a year.... and best they could improve to (if orders shifted more to SRs than LRs) would be 8k a week or 416,000 a year.

S/X has been around 15-17k the two full quarters and around 6k I think in Q2 with the plant shutdown.

So without more cells Freemont looks maxed at either 375k 3/Y and ~65k S/X (and that may be demand limited at this point given they used to make 100k of em) so ~420k cars... or maybe like 450k if they get a very heavy SR mix for the 3.

The thread on twitter does mention a 14th Panasonic line but that it won't be running in time to meaningfully contribute to Q4 2020.

Source:
https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1313506427873366016


I think Tesla needs just over 170k production in Q4 worldwide to hit 500k for a year... if we figure another 15k S/X, that leaves them needing to build 155k of 3/Y.

At 7200 a week in CA for 13 weeks we get 93,600 cars....leaving 61,400 for China to build, or 4723 a week.... I know they were north of 4k by June/July, but not sure how near to 5k they are.

Should be fairly tight....(and even tighter for delivery of 500k total) presumably more guidance on this to come on the earnings call.

Does show their original 500k guidance for 2020, has they not lost like 60,000 cars of production time at Freemont during shutdown, would've been fairly easy to hit.

Nissan sales have really been taking a dump since 2017. Sales for 2020 will probably be ~40% lower than 2017, so production at NA plants will probably be down by similar levels, i.e. from ~600k/year to ~360k/y.

Panasonic is supposedly continuing to add production, and the eventual target for Fremont is 600k/year IIRC, which should give it the top spot until Texas passes it.

 

[Bet TSLA]

Last word from the gigagrunt on twitter was GFN was maxxed around 7200 battery packs (cell constrained) a week going to Freemont for 3/Y, which would be just under 375,000 cars a year.... and best they could improve to (if orders shifted more to SRs than LRs) would be 8k a week or 416,000 a year.

S/X has been around 15-17k the two full quarters and around 6k I think in Q2 with the plant shutdown.

So without more cells Freemont looks maxed at either 375k 3/Y and ~65k S/X (and that may be demand limited at this point given they used to make 100k of em) so ~420k cars... or maybe like 450k if they get a very heavy SR mix for the 3.

The thread on twitter does mention a 14th Panasonic line but that it won't be running in time to meaningfully contribute to Q4 2020.

Source:
https://twitter.com/BillWri90307793/status/1313506427873366016


I think Tesla needs just over 170k production in Q4 worldwide to hit 500k for a year... if we figure another 15k S/X, that leaves them needing to build 155k of 3/Y.

At 7200 a week in CA for 13 weeks we get 93,600 cars....leaving 61,400 for China to build, or 4723 a week.... I know they were north of 4k by June/July, but not sure how near to 5k they are.

Should be fairly tight....(and even tighter for delivery of 500k total) presumably more guidance on this to come on the earnings call.

Does show their original 500k guidance for 2020, has they not lost like 60,000 cars of production time at Freemont during shutdown, would've been fairly easy to hit.

I have a rule that anybody who can't spell Fremont doesn't get their posts read. Just another way to cut down on the noise.

 

[ZachF]

Tesla as a whole will produce approximately 500,000 cars across its two factories. Not more than 628,108 in just Fremont! Are you comparing apples to oranges (run rate to actual 1-year accumulated nunber)?

1.I said by end-of-year.
2.Nissan is really getting dunked on in terms of sales. Like sales are really, really, bad..... US sales of Infiniti + Nissan were ~1.6m in 2017, and will likely be under 1m this year.

 

[joh01652]

Thought I'd share this 2015 blog post on Naked Short Selling/Counterfeit Stock I came across today.

Illegal Naked Short Selling Appears to Lie at the Heart of an Extensive Stock Manipulation Scheme | Expert Financial Analysis and Reporting | Smith on Stocks

This is the most succinct and informative article I've read on the subject. Naked short selling was mentioned by @SpaceCash 2-3 months back, and an enlightening discussion ensued (at least for me, I'm new to investing in general, and new to this forum).

Why naked shorting is important (taken directly from the article):

"This problem affects the investing public. Whether invested directly in the stock market or in mutual funds, IRAs, retirement or pension plans that hold stock — it touches the majority of Americans. The public rarely knows when its pocket is being picked as unexplained drops in stock price get chalked up to “market forces” when they are often market manipulations.

The stocks most frequently targeted are those of emerging companies who went to the stock market to raise start–up capital. Small business brings the vast majority of innovative new ideas and products to market and creates the majority of new jobs in the United States. Over 1000 of these emerging companies have been put into bankruptcy or had their stock driven to pennies by predatory short sellers.

It is important to understand that selling a stock short is not an investment in American enterprise. A short seller makes money when the stock price goes down and that money comes solely from investors who have purchased the company's stock. A successful short manipulation takes money from investment in American enterprise and diverts it to feed Wall Street's insatiable greed — the company that was attacked is worse off and the investing public has lost money. Frequently this profit is diverted to off–shore tax havens and no taxes are paid. This national disgrace is a parasite on the greatest capital market in the world."

 

[EV forever]

Just watched Season 29, Ep 1 of Top Gear. Pretty much an infomercial for the Tesla Model 3. Pretty hilarious and is worth a watch. Love how the spectators gathered around to sing karaoke as the Tesla charged.

That was awesome! I skipped the bit about the Ferrari- who cares about that.
It was really great how all three at the end voted for Tesla as the car they would choose. Great advertisement for Tesla. This is why Elon does not need to pay for any advertising- the cars speak for themselves and recruit anyone who drives them to be their spokesperson for life!